Bitcoin: I Was Wrong! Learn From My MistakesIn my most recent Bitcoin analysis I talked about further bearish pressure and a bearish breakout from a bear-flag pattern.
That didn't play out as expected. Actually, BTC saw an almost 30% pump from the lows.
In this analysis I want to talk about what I did wrong and how you can learn from my mistakes.
Mistake 1: not zooming out and only focussing on one timeframe.
In the previous analysis I failed to see that BTC was actually trading at a support (bottom yellow line). Never short into a support and never long into resistance.
Mistake 2: the trend is your friend. Bitcoin has been trading in a dominantly bullish trend since January of 2023. Yes, there's been some dips here and there, but nothing crazy. It's more likely that BTC will go up that down over the next months.
Mistake 3: don't short when BTC hit's oversold on the RSI. Always keep an eye out for the oscillators (my favorite is the RSI). BTC has hit oversold on the daily for the third period since 2023, patient bulls will be buying!
In short, I was wrong. Should've done more research and follow simple trading rules. Learn from my mistakes and become a better informed trader.
For now, I'm waiting for a new all-time high to be reached. In which case, 100k is the next target. Let's hope for a great Q3 and Q4!
M-signal
BTCUSD: Short Signal Explained
BTCUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short BTCUSD
Entry Point - 67117
Stop Loss - 69928
Take Profit - 62438
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SILVER: Bullish Continuation & Long Signal
SILVER
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy SILVER
Entry - 29.222
Stop - 28.695
Take - 30.155
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
EURUSD Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
EURUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.0881 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.0905
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NXPI NXP Semiconductors Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NXPI NXP Semiconductors prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 300usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $9.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NXPI NXP Semiconductors
V Visa Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought V before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of V Visa prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 280usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $5.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
SPOT Spotify Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Head and Shoulders bearish chart pattern on SPOT:
nor bought calls before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SPOT Spotify Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 290usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-8-16,
for a premium of approximately $15.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Bitcoin - Next Resistance is Previous ATHAfter price has consolidated around the 200 EMA range price has bounced back from the 200 EMA.
Also price has broken local resistance around 65K which was crucial to for the bullish trend to continue. Currently price is around 67K and heading towards the resistance which is around the previous ATH 73K (overall resistance zone is around 70-73K range)
I'm expecting price to easily breach the 75K barriers and we have decent trade opportunity here.
We can enter a long trade at the current price with local support of 65K as the SL
Entry Price: 67K
Stoploss: 64K
Target 1: 68K
Target 2: 69K
Target 3: 70K
Target 4: 72K
Don't forget to keep stoploss.
Cheers!
GreenCrypto
Silver (XAGUSD): Anticipating a Wave 4 CorrectionSince our entry at $26.31, silver has experienced a significant rally, reaching up to $32.50. We anticipate a correction downward to form a Wave 4.
The recent rise to $32.50 indicates a strong upward movement, but now a correction is expected. We expect silver to correct downward into the 38.2% to 50% retracement zone before continuing its upward trend.
Our strategy involves maintaining our current stop-loss level without adjustment while allowing the market to correct. We have already secured some profits, reducing our risk. We are targeting the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci retracement zone for potential re-entry, which will likely provide a strong support area for the next upward movement.
USDCHF The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USDCHF below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 0.8897
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal -0.8946
Safe Stop Loss - 0.8865
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDCAD Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for AUDCAD is below:
The market is trading on 0.9181 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 0.9215
Recommended Stop Loss - 0.9161
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NZDCAD Massive Long! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for NZDCAD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 0.8260
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 0.8294
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.0890
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.0907
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AVAX: Scouting The Best Entry After More PAINAVAX has been trading inside this bearish channel for several years at this point. It's very plausible that AVAX will break through the top resistance if BTC keeps going up, hence the reason that this is not a short-signal, but rather a "buy from here if we go down again" - signal.
IF AVAX starts losing value again, I'm keeping an eye at the bottom support of the channel to make a long-term bullish entry. Remains to be seen whether this support will ever be hit again, but better to be prepared in case it does!
FLOKI Bullish Channel: Pump Incoming?With BTC reversing after weeks of selling, it's to be expected that alts will follow suit.
FLOKI has reversed from the bottom support of the bullish channel, making way for a move towards the top resistance.
I'm waiting for a small drop in order to enhance the R/R of this trade. Target around the top resistance, stop below the recent swing low.
XAUUSD : Will falling gold create strong momentum in the future?XAU/USD has fallen for two consecutive sessions since hitting a new peak at $2,483, suggesting traders are taking profits after gaining more than 8.0% in the past three weeks.
In the medium term, the general trend is still up, but the RSI indicator on the daily chart is turning down, showing that investors are somewhat cautious as the gold price gets closer to the 2,500 USD mark. In the short term, XAU/USD may continue to fall deeply if it does not quickly regain the $2,450 mark.
If selling pressure remains overwhelming, gold prices may move towards the July 5 high at $2,392 after breaking through the $2,400 mark and then the $2,350 mark. On the contrary, if XAU/USD successfully surpasses 2,490 USD, conquering the 2,500 USD mark is completely feasible.
Gold is falling after creating a record for itselfGold prices continued to decline on Thursday, although remaining around the old peak of $2,450. Currently, XAU/USD is trading around 2,444 USD, down more than 1.5% from its peak of 2,483 USD due to the greenback's recovery, supported by rising US government bond yields.
Jobs data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that more people than expected applied for unemployment benefits, signaling a slowing economy. This, along with last week's string of data showing inflation moving toward the 2% target, could prompt a change in stance from Fed policymakers.
The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims increased more than expected last week, but according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday, the labor market did not change significantly.
Finally, Fed officials have expressed that the central bank may be "getting closer" to lowering interest rates as inflation and recession risks have become more balanced. Still, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that the Fed should not rush to cut interest rates until the end of 2024.
In the context of extremely increased expectations of interest rate cuts in September, gold prices reached a new all-time high of 2,483 USD, but demand could not maintain the upward momentum as a part of investors moved forward. take profit. This, along with former US President Donald Trump's announcement of imposing at least 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, has boosted the flow of money back to the USD.
The DXY index, which tracks the greenback's performance against six other major currencies, rose 0.43% to 104.18. Besides, US government bond yields also increased on many terms. Typically, the 10-year term reached 4.187%, an increase of more than 2.5 bps.
Red Trading DaysDoes this ring a bell?, You lose a trade and you feel the need to instantly reenter. You were absolutely sure that trade would win. So you reenter, this new trade loses as well, now you are furious you wait a bit and you reenter again with the same lot size and yet again you lose - this typically occurs because you are no longer trading based on logic but on pure vibes, pure emotion. You are 3 trades in the hole and your desire to be right is higher than ever. You’re almost seeing red itself as if you had a bloodlust towards the market. So you take a 4th trade but this is where the beginning of the end starts, you decide to go in with a bigger lot size. Once you get here, you’ve already lost the game because now you are no longer willing to listen to reason.
You definitely aren’t willing to stop and you won’t rest until you win a trade. And maybe you do win this trade but it wasn’t enough, you’re still just under break even and you need to make back your profit. So you take another trade with the same overleveraged lot size and that trade comes and loses as well, bummer. And now you are delusional thinking that the market must be against you, So by this point you pretty much give up, you yolo the account activating the margin call. Account has been blown.
Nobody likes red days, you know what I’m talking about - when almost no matter how hard you try you just can’t seem to win any trades. I promise you aren’t alone in both feeling that way and having red days to begin with. But I’ve found in my experience that learning to be okay with a losing day is one of the keys to trading from a place of peace. It is also instrumental in stopping you from both taking stupid trades and or revenge trading.
We’ve all been there, things going good - it seems like you’re finally getting it. Everyday you’re winning, Monday Profit. Tuesday Profit. Wednesday Profit. And then BAM. Thursday you start to lose your first trades. Calm down and relax, what you do next will dictate if you get to keep this account alive or not. I’ve seen it happen to other traders and it has happened to me as well. As soon as you lose a trade you instantly feel wrong and have an immediate desire to make your money back. But if you come to terms with the fact that it was never your money to begin with. You can have a shift in your perception which could help calm your nerves a bit. Many a trader has destroyed their entire account because of one silly losing trade.
So we already know that, feeling this way is normal and you are not alone. So why is it other traders can be successful and you can’t? Well the answer is you can but you must control yourself. Trading is more of a mental thing than anything else. For instance, drawdown. Drawdown is a mental thing. It is designed like that to freak you out but in actuality if you are right drawdown is just a part of the process, maintain control and follow your directive.
One thing that has greatly helped me better deal with red days is pass it off as a loan towards the market. I like to think as though the market needs to borrow my money, no biggie, sometimes people need to borrow money from you right? But good news, you get to apply interest when they are paying you back because all financial institutions do that, why shouldn’t you? When you are taking money back from the market that is the market paying interest to you. It sounds silly but that is what I do to cope with losing, something I have little to no control over. It stops me from taking stupid ill-advised trades and allows me to justify those “losses”.
It is all about the little things that allow you to better control yourself. It isn’t crazy if it works. What if I told you.
It is also very important to acknowledge the fact that you cannot win every single trade. By not actively trying to win every single trade what you are actually doing is taking pressure off of yourself because you are prepared for the worst.
I say this to say - I will likely be taking the rest of the day off from trading Either Gold or BTC as neither of them have any real opportunity to me currently. Peace out folks!
ZEC LONG PlanZEC HTF Analysis
Swing Long Trade, Spot Buy
Weekly Liquidity Sweep: External - Bottom
Daily Swing High Liquidity Sweep: Internal - Top
We can take a long entry on retracement in the Displacement + Discount zone (fib OTE level). For reference, entry, SL, DCA, and TP levels are marked on the chart.
#DoYourOwnResearch
TPLP_KSE100_#TPLP__#Trading_#daily_#call_#IdeaThe daily chart shows a strong bullish divergence, However the price making consecutive lower lows and lower closes, with this bullish divergence we are expecting the trend might reverse and Bulls may again step in and shows dominance.
The recent price action has formed a complex pullback, and now the price is testing the strong resistance zone 8.89, which is a psychological level. If the price maintain this level, I expect it the script will bounce back from this level and shows some upwards momentum. Potential levels identified on the charts as well.
# DYOR (Do your own research as well)
Traders, if you liked this idea write in the comments and give your feedback as well thanks
Gold is looking for new peaks for itselfIn his latest speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell once again expressed a dovish stance, but it could go in either direction. As has been pointed out many times, gold appears to be very sensitive, with just the slightest impact being able to push gold prices to new record highs in any given week.
Robert Minter, Chief Strategy Officer of abrdn, said that inflation is only half the reason for this price increase, the other half is the weakness of the economy.
"There is a basis to cut interest rates in September. If you look at the current high level of consumer debt, even a little pressure on the labor market can cause serious problems for the economy. I don't think we're going to see a recession, but it all depends on the Fed. They're a little late, but it's not too late to do something."
Despite supposedly positive economic data, economic optimism seems increasingly foolish. We supposedly avoided a Volcker recession, but have we really? Or is the media downplaying how bad the real situation is? Could a devastating recession begin after the Fed starts lowering interest rates?
That's often what happens, as Ryan McMaken warns us - the reason "soft landings" are so elusive is simply because they're impossible,
"But there are two problems with the "soft landing" story: The first is that the Fed has never done this in the past 45 years. Normally, the Fed denies a recession until it happens. Then, the Fed reduces Interest rates on unemployment have begun to rise."
The market has high expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates. The CME FedWatch tool shows an over 90% probability of this happening. According to expert Carsten Fritsch, the market is predicting that the Fed will reduce interest rates in September and may reduce it again before the end of the year.
Based on these, Fritsch thinks gold has all the elements to test and could surpass record highs this week. And all of this is still in the short term.
As we approach the end of the year, gold will exit its weakest quarter and enter the election cycle, a period that is expected to be turbulent even by the standards of the past twenty years.
The dynamics driving gold prices are changing, and investors should stay one step ahead.
In the latest report, Incrementum AG's Ronald Stoeferle notes that gold investors should pay attention to the changes driving the gold market. (This is not to say that the old factors are disappearing. Inflation and currency depreciation will still ensure gold's appeal, and any discussion of safe investments must include Yellow.)