MCX
MCX trend reversal after making triple top MCX shows a good trend reversal after making a triple top pattern
1) 760 could be a possible best entry with a target of 840 with stop loss of 700
2) It could also test a target of above 940 in 2 to 3 months period
Regards
Dinesh
CrudeOil Elliottwave View: Buy the dipStrategy: Buy the dip
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CrudeOil is in correction phase and looking for W-X-Y correction on weekly chart where target for Y is above 55. On Short term, we are waiting for good opportunity to go long. After breakout of bullish inner channel, we are on sideline and looking to see support on outer bullish channel.
EURINR Elliottwave: Looking for break of monthly trendlineTalking Points:
Technical Strategy: Bearish
Elliottwave Count: Either wave (C) continuation or B wave of (B).
HTG Note:
Larger outlook on weekly chart is showing weakness on long and short term. EURO vs Indian Rupee price is testing weekly trend line. Last time this line was tested on September, 2015 and post that we seen nice pullback towards 77.80 levels. We in HTG consider that was correction and marking as a wave (B). From 77.80, we were seen bear continuation and currently price is testing same weekly trenline. Break of this weekly trendline will be very bearish outlook for Euro. On alternate, if price is start trading higher, we are expecting to see price can go and above 82 levels before it's turn bearish again.
Lower time frame, we are seen reaction near trend line support, however current price is trading in just correction and testing horizontal resistance on 70.15. We are expecting this zigzag correction should be over. To confirm, bear trend is back in force, we need to have channel breakout here @ 70 area. Post this breakout, we are able to mark correction over and can trade for lower target below 68
Action
We initiated short position @ 1.77 with limited stoploss
28Sep-USOIL contrarian tradeLow risk short idea at CMP with stops above 45. The counter seems to be finding resistance in the channel trendline.
USOIL Long view on multiple tests of support & supply zonesAug-26: Long view on crude with stop & reversal below the
lower trend line.
3 reasons:
1. converging averages
2. lower support line of pitchfork
3. breakout above the descending top trendline
Copper Buy Setup!!Copper is giving a Buying Opportunity near the 61.8% retracement of the last rally and correction has reached the bottom of the trend channel within which Copper has been correction. Last 4 hour and 1 hour Candlestick pattern shows bullish pattern with divergence in 1hr chart. Its a nice risk reward trade if it does reverse and go up from here.. Targets and Stoploss levels are on the chart.
Happy Trading!!
CrudeOil Short Setup!!CrudeOil is giving a Short Setup!! Current correction would potentially be a Flat or Triangle type corrections as this could be a potentially intermediate 4th wave correction.
Happy Trading!!
XAUUSD - Silver View!Silver is correcting for now as a Flat correction. Down side is possible till 18.50 from where expecting it go higher above 21.50.If it continues to go lower below 18 then it probably might be doing something else and invalidate my analysis. Looking for reversal and buying opportunity around 18.5 levels. Details are on the chart.
Happy Trading!!
Siraj Hudda, CFTe
Web: www.prowaveanalysis.com
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Crude Sell Alert on Support BreakdownCrudeoil Broke through the support range of 45. Needs to sustain below and has a good potential short trade.
One concern is lower than average volumes
Support Breakdown Trading ideaLower tops on the charts testing the support zones. Low risk short idea until crude holds below the trend line.
breaking 48.90 will be the key
sell xag/usd silver spot sl 18.5 tgt 16.5 and belowsell xag/usd silver spot sl 18.5 tgt 16.5 and below
Crude under pressureCrude (22.05.2015) traded lower as per our expectation as mention in our previous article, however it fail to reach to $55.70 mark & bounced back with current week inventory support.
Now crude is trading around $60 mark & as we can see on charts, crude trying to retest the broken trade line of ascending channel. The bounce was supported by volume as well as pattern is not very ideal for recovery. On elliott wave count , crude probably trading under 1st downside wave with probably V wave down now. However the count is not very ideal still there is no other probability available this time.
On fundamental side, although we witness a good withdrawal last week, total inventories still roaming around all time high while strong dollar likely to continue.
Based on above technical picture , crude probably move downward once again. Level $55.70 & then $51.50 will be on radar.
MCX -> S2(3610) S1(3724) cmp(3832) R1(3910) R2(3980)
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/ sell recommendation.
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Crude can hit back again.Crude(25.03.2015) broken downside & traded lower towards $43 mark as mention in our last analysis. However the recovery was quite sharp to resistance zone once again.
Now crude is trading around $47.50 & as we can see on charts, its approaching to the broken tradeline of last symmetrical triangle pattern. This recovery seems to be a corrective one due to less volume & weak candlestick structure. However small timeframe charts showing some positivity but day & weekly charts are still bearish. To convert this rally into a reversal crude must provide a close above $55 mark otherwise a deeper fall may occur this time.
On fundamental side nothing have changed. Crude inventory & production still on higher levels while next OPEC meeting due on 5th june 2015 at Vienna, Austria is far away.
Based on above studies, we will prefer to stay on sell side & may witness a fall back towards $44 mark & may be followed by $41 in coming weeks.
MCX -> S2(2810) S1(3020) cmp(3130) R1(3300) R2(3560)
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us
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Silver with a bull start of 2015Silver(07.01.2015) remain very quite for more than 2 months & traded in range. However this range bound trading came with some surprising moves which plotting the future movement story most probably.
Fundamental remains very weak for silver from last few months, gold with bad performance in 2014 kept pressure on silver as well as slowdown in leading manufacturing economy china slashes silver demand as industrial metal. With a positive start of 2015 from gold & a major expectation of QE from china , japan & europe together could provide a supportive ambiance for this metal.
Coming to the technical picture, Silver trading at $16.35 while i am writing this & as we can see on chart in December 2014 silver made a low around $14 mark & bounce same day with some extra volume. This move almost tested the 261.8% fibonacci retracement level of last upside move. This move also provided a strong positive divergence on charts as well as a falling volume under consolidation period suggest absence of sellers on current level. Thus a combination of bounce from lower trendline of long term descending channel & a most possible inside bullish channel hinting for a recovery ahead. Area around $17.70 & then $18.70 could be targeted in coming trading session.
SILVER MCX has same story like comex silver still on mcx charts, silver looks more comfortable , probably due to INR movement. A strong black cloud cover candle with great volume & follow up by a consolidation period with thin volume. RSI generating a positive divergence . Silver also broken above a descending trendline & currently following a minor upside channel. This technical setup suggest for a bounce ahead to retest the previous high around 39000 & then may be 41000 in coming trading session.
At the end time will tell us the true story.
Best of luck.
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us
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Natural gas consolidation likely to continue.Natural gas (03.12.2014) made high round $4.6 on unexpected cold front in November month while upcoming mild weather forecast forced trader to book profit on higher levels.
On fundamental side, mild weather in US expected to continue for coming 2 weeks & will put more pressure on prices. On other hand current inventory level of natural gas is 3432 bcf which is down by 400bcf compare to 5 year average. Inventory forecast for this week is -51 while 5 year average withdrawal is -17. These inventory level might help natural gas prices to hold above current year low.
Now natural gas is trading around $3.772 & as we can see on charts, natural gas once again came below the long term descending trendline running from 2013 high of $5.475. Technical picture suggest for more downside move towards previously broken support & then towards 2014 low at $3.611. However the volume associated with this move is quite low & thus this move could be temporary.
Mcx natural gas trading at 235.50 mark while i am writing. Mcx natural gas has almost same story , keep falling after putting a temporary high of 281 while falling continue on mild weather forecast. From technical aspect break below support trendline & 61.8% fibonacci retracement suggest for more weakness ahead. Most possibly natural gas can fill the contract gap ( 229-223.5) on charts. It will be very interesting to watch when the gap will be filled & winter will arrive again.
Based on above studies, we will prefer to sell natural gas on some rise for mention downside targets in coming trading session.
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation.
Our blog - www.mantracommodity.blogspot.in
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Swiss gold referendum - A bear trap ???Gold (01.12.2014) reverse from $1207 mark which we mention as first resistance for bulls. However fall from mention level should taken as correction or profit booking but swiss gold referendum added more fuel & created panic selling.
Now gold is trading around $1275 & we have witness a sharp bounce from recent low $1142 made just after a NO answer from swiss gold referendum. The bounce producing a major among trader that how actually this NO going to react. Here is the most possible answer.
Swiss gold referendum YES would force swiss banks to buy tonnes of gold to increase the gold holding from 8% to 20% but a NO answer is actually not going to change anything for gold normal trading. The panic selling come in first trading session was not supported by volume (see chart), while the NO answer avoided the immediate buying from swiss banks but now it is mandate for central bank to buy gold from open market or off market.
Coming to technical picture, gold made a low of $1142 & now trading above $1169 which represent the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of last upside move till $1207. A stability above this mark with volume & a very positive divergence on day chart suggest that gold already digested swiss result & a technical upside move will continue for coming trading session. A break above $1207 will provide more strength & we may witness a quick move towards $1247.
MCX GOLD traded lower with spot gold however the correction more deeper due to removal of 80:20 rule by indian government & low volume. Still on technical front gold was able sustain above previous low. This particular move forming a double bottom pattern which is well supported by positive divergence as shown in the chart. Channel resistance situated around 26780 & if this is broken we may witness a sharp move 26900 & more.
Swiss gold referendum could prove a big bear trap if above technical picture stay alive.
Best of luck
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Gold broken major resistance Gold(17.11.2014) moved higher in last week on profit booking as well as on challenging fundamental growth of major economy. However branching the strong resistance zone with volume could change long term scenario.
Now gold is trading around $1187 & we can see on charts, friday gold rally more than 3% & provided a closing above $1182-1172 resistance which where able to stop gold momentum many times. Technically after breaking $1180 mark gold made a low of $1131 while unable to close below $1138 mark which represent the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This area was very close to the lower trendline of current descending channel too. An elliott wave bearish pattern completion also suggest for 3 corrective wave pattern ahead.
On fundamental side, upcoming swiss bank referendum on 30th nov could play major role for gold price. A voting result in favor of swiss referendum will force swiss banks to buy big quantity of gold which will never come back in market for liquidation.
Based on above studies , there is a major probability that gold will provide a corrective move towards support zone & then move upside for possible targets around $1207 & then $1225 atleast. A day close below $1272 will delay the forecast.
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us
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MCX levels -> S2(26160) S1(26300) cmp(26425) R1(26650) R2(27000)
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Corrective bounce ahead Crude (12.9.2014) fall sharply in last few weeks & reach to the $90 sociological level.
Now crude is trading around $92.40 & the bounce $90 mark is well supported by many factors like 261.8% feb ret. , a lower tradeline of descending channel as well as a very strong positive divergence. All this together providing a buying opportunity at current level.
On fundamental side , continue demand for sanction on russia putting a dent on crude production future.
Based on above studies , crude possibly move towards $94.80 & then $96.50. a day close below $89.50 will delay the forecast.
MCX -> S2(5550) S1(5550) cmp(5678) R1(5740) R2(5833)
Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us
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