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Nasdaq100

👀 Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick PatternThree Black Crows is a term used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that can predict a reversal in an uptrend. Classic candlestick charts show "Open", "High", "Low" and "Close" prices of a bar for a particular security. For markets moving up, the candlestick is usually white, green or blue. When moving lower they are black or red. The Three Black Crows pattern consists of three consecutive long-body candles that opened with a gap above or inside the real body of the previous candle, but ultimately closed lower than the previous candle. Often traders use this indicator in combination with other technical indicators or chart patterns to confirm a reversal. Key points 👉 Three Black Crows is a Bearish candlestick pattern used to predict a reversal to a current uptrend, used along with other technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). 👉 The size of the Three black crow candles, timeframe they appeared on, the gaps when they opened, the downward progression sequence, as well as their shadows can be used to judge whether there is a risk of a pullback on a reversal. 👉 The “Three Black Crows” pattern should be considered finally formed after the sequential closure of all three elements included in it. 👉 The opposite pattern of three black crows is three white soldiers, which indicates a reversal of the downward trend. But maybe more about that another time. Explanation of the Three Black Crows pattern Three Black Crows is a visual pattern, which means there is no need to worry about any special calculations when identifying this indicator. The Three Black Crows pattern occurs when the bears outperform the bulls over three consecutive trading bars. The pattern appears on price charts as three bearish long candles with or without short shadows or wicks. In a typical Three Black Crows appearance, bulls start the time frame with the opening price or gap up, that is, even slightly higher than the previous close, but throughout the time frame the price declines to eventually close below the previous time frame's close. This trading action will result in a very short or no shadow. Traders often interpret this downward pressure, which lasted across three time frames, as the start of a bearish downtrend. Example of using Three black crows As a visual pattern, it is best to use the Three Black Crows as a sign to seek confirmation from other technical indicators. The Three Black Crows pattern and the confidence a trader can put into it depends largely on how well the pattern is formed. Three Black Crows should ideally be relatively long bearish candles that close at or near the lowest price for the period. In other words, candles should have long real bodies and short or non-existent shadows. If the shadows are stretching, it may simply indicate a slight change in momentum between bulls and bears before the uptrend reasserts itself. Using trading volume data can make the drawing of the Three Black Crows pattern more accurate. The volume of the last bar during an uptrend leading to the pattern is relatively lower in typical conditions, while the Three Black Crows pattern has relatively high volume in each element of the group. In this scenario, as in our case, the uptrend was established by a small group of bulls and then reversed by a larger group of bears. Of course, this could also mean that a large number of small bullish trades collide with an equal or smaller group of high volume bearish trades. However, the actual number of market participants and trades is less important than the final volume that was ultimately recorded during the time frame. Restrictions on the use of three black crows If the "Three Black Crows" pattern has already shown significant downward movement, it makes sense to be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation or a pullback before further downward movement. The best way to assess whether a stock or other asset is oversold is to look at other technical indicators, such as relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, trend lines, or horizontal support and resistance levels. Many traders typically look to other independent chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakout rather than relying solely on the Three Black Crows pattern. Overall, it is open to some free interpretation by traders. For example, when assessing the prospects of building a pattern into a longer continuous series consisting of “black crows” or the prospects of a possible rollback. In addition, other indicators reflect the true pattern of the three black crows. For example, a Three Black Crows pattern may involve a breakout of key support levels, which can independently predict the start of a medium-term downtrend. Using additional patterns and indicators increases the likelihood of a successful trading or exit strategy. Real example of Three black crows Since there are a little more than one day left before the closing of the third candle in the combination, the candlestick combination (given in the idea) is a still forming pattern, where (i) each of the three black candles opened above the closing price of the previous one, that is, with a small upward gap, (ii ) further - by the end of the time frame the price decreases below the price at close of the previous time frame, (iii) volumes are increased relative to the last bullish time frame that preceded the appearance of the first of the “three crows”, (iv) the upper and lower wicks of all “black crows” are relatively short and comparable with the main body of the candle. Historical examples of the Three Black Crows pattern In unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, the Three Black Crows pattern is generally quite common. The weekly chart of the S&P500 Index (SPX) below, in particular, shows the occurrence of the pattern in the period starting in January 2022 and in the next 15 months until April 2023 (all crows combinations counted at least from 1-Month High). As it easy to notice, in each of these cases (marked on the graph below) after the candlestick pattern appeared, the price (after possible consolidations and rollbacks) tended to lower levels, or in any case, sellers sought to repeat the closing price of the last bar in series of the Three Black Crows candlestick pattern. Bottom Line 👉 As well as in usage of all other technical analysis indicators, it is important to confirm or refute its results using other indicators and analysis of general market conditions. 👉 Does History repeat itself? - Partially, yes.. it does. This is all because financial markets (as well as life) is not an Endless Rainbow, and after lovely sunny days, earlier or later, dark clouds may appear again, and again.
SP:SPXEducation
by PandorraResearch
Exploring the Weekly OptionsCME: E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Weekly Options ($Q1D-$Q5D) When I first started trading two decades ago, I was overwhelmed by the amount of data that was available. I had a hard time correlating how data relates to price movement. While observing the stock market, I have one question in particular: why does the market often moves drastically immediately after the release of a major report? Over time, I learnt that these reports provide insight into how the economy works. New data validates our assumptions about the future. Take the United States as an example: • Consumers drive the U.S. economy; • Consumers need jobs to be able to buy things and keep the economy going; • The ebb and flow between the degree of joblessness and full employment drive economic activity up or down; • How easy or difficult for households and businesses to get credit affects consumption, jobs, and investment. The following reports have an outsized impact on global financial markets: • The Nonfarm Payroll Report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); • The Consumer Price Index, also published by the BLS; • Personal Income and Outlays, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); • Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also by the BEA; • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, this is where the Federal Reserve sets the Fed Funds interest rates, ten times a year; • Interest rate actions by other central banks, including European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the People’s Bank of China. Binary Outcomes: Ideal Setting for Options Trading For these highly anticipated reports, investors usually reach a consensus on the expected impact of the new data prior to its release. Market price tends to price in such investor expectations. The next FOMC meeting is on September 20th. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the futures market currently expects a 94% probability that the Fed would keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 5.25%-5.50% range. The September contract of CME Fed Funds Futures (ZQU3) is last settled at 94.665. This implies a Fed Funds rate of 5.335%, right in the middle of the target range. When new data is released, investors focus less on the actual data, but more on how it compares to the consensus. Because the prevailing price already reflected market expectation, new data serves to either confirm or dispute it. We could use a range of -1 to +1 to categorize these outcomes: • Well Below Expectations, -1; • Meet Expectations, 0; • Well Above Expectations, +1. The sign of the outcome does not necessarily correspond to a positive or negative price movement. It differs by the type of data and the respective financial instrument. We could further simplify the results into binary outcomes: • Within Expectation: 0, where actual data approximates previous expectation; • Beyond Expectation: 1, either below or above expectation by a pre-defined margin. Both human and computer think in binary terms: Light switch On or Off, Price goes Up or Down, Risk turns On or Off. In derivatives market, we could buy a Call Options if we expect the price to go up, and a Put Options if we think the price will decline. Weekly Options for Event-Driven Strategies The FOMC meeting is the most significant event that affects global markets. Market may stay calm if the Fed keeps rate unchanged (within expectation). However, if the Fed raises rate unexpectedly, you could hear investors screaming all around the world! To trade the Fed decision, investors could form different strategies using a wild variety of instruments, such as stock market indexes, Treasury bonds, forex futures, gold, WTI crude oil, and even bitcoin. Today, we focus on the Nasdaq 100 index. Here are some alternatives to consider: • Nasdaq 100 ETF: many asset managers offer them, including Invesco, iShares and ProShares. From a trader’s perspective, ETFs offer no leverage. A $100K exposure requires $100K upfront investment. If the market moves up 1%, you also gain 1%, minus the fees. • Nasdaq 100 Futures: CME Micro Nasdaq 100 ($MNQ) has a notional value of 2 times the index, valuing it at $31025, given the Nasdaq’s last close at 15512.5. Each contract requires initial margin of $1680. The futures contract is embedded with an 18.5-to-1 leverage. • Nasdaq 100 Options: As the nearby September contract expires on the 3rd Friday, or the 15th, ahead of the FOMC meeting date, we could not use it for our strategy. Instead, we could apply it with the December contract ($NQU3). On September 1st, the 15800-strike Call is quoted $541.50, and the 15400-strike Put is quoted $535. • Weekly Options: On September 1st, the 15800-strike Call to expire in one week is quoted $14.25, while the 15400-strike Put to expire in one week is quoted $54.50. Premiums for the standard American-style Options are expensive. They come with quarterly contracts and quarterly expirations. While our target date is September 20th, we have to use the December contract and acquire 3-1/2-month worth of time value. Weekly options, on the other hand, offer more precise trading and risk management with more expirations. Investors pay low premium to get the exposure they need and avoid the unnecessary and costly time value. For E-Mini Nasdaq 100, the weekly options that expire on Wednesday, September 20th will be listed on the prior Thursday, September 14th. If an investor forms an opinion about the FOMC decision, he could implement it with a weekly call or put next week. Nasdaq Weekly Options are deliverable contracts. If an investor owns a call and it expires in the money, he will settle the contract with a long position in E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures. Likewise, if he owns an in-the-money put, he will get a short futures position. If the market moves in favor of an investor’s expectation, the potential payoff could be significant due to the leverage in weekly options. If the investor is incorrect, he could lose money, up to the amount of the entire premium. However, the low-premium nature in weekly options helps contain such loss at a tolerable level. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
3
The Slight Depression - Why NFP Numbers aren't tha NB* with TechWhy jobs added or lost won’t have a big effect on the tech stock markets in the future Every month, I get asked about NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls). This is a barometer that comes out on the 1stFriday of every month. It tells us one thing. Whether the number of jobs were added or lost in the US economy for the previous month (excluding farming jobs). Well let’s take the NFP number coming out today (1 September 2023) Prior was 187,000 and the Forecast is 170,000. So already, they are guessing there’ll be 17,000 less jobs added this month compared to last month. In the past I would say, anything less than 170K might be a cause of concern to the stock market and companies (especially in tech) as less people were assigned jobs. But this month, I have a shift in mind and thoughts. If NFP comes out worse than expected… I don't necessarily think this will have a bad effect on the NASDAQ. In fact, the Nasdaq is showing strong signs of upside to come in the next few months. Between the Falling Wedge, the Price above 200MA, the price jumping from the prior uptrend - It looks like the NASDAQ wants to shoot up! And companies like Nvidia, META, Alphabet, Microsoft, IBM and even Tesla, I believe, will do just fine cutting jobs and building their empires simultaneously. And whether the NFP drops or rises, NASDAQ along with tech stocks will do just fine. Now let's talk about something a little more solemn. I have a wild thought of the day. In the era of accelerated technological advancements and revolutionary influence of AI (Artificial Intelligence), there is a paradigm shift happening between the biologics and the non-biologics. Sure tech companies will need a strong workforce, but I don’t think they need an excessive amount of employees like in the past. In the AI era with new AI developments, deep and machine learning to optimise and maximise operations and profits… I think we WILL undoubtedly see a major disruption in the employee force. But here is where it gets scary… Those who adapt, grow and evolve will make it. Those who don't might, fall behind and into what I call. The Slight Depression This is where things are getting tough and more expensive. · Salaries are staying the same while prices are going up. · Groceries you have to think twice when buying cereals. · Flights are crazy. · Rates and taxes are just ridiculous. · Some restaurants are out of their minds. · Don’t start with mortgages, bonds, insurance and medical aid. · Filling up a tank of petrol is showing off nowadays! Clearly, there is a shift between the lower and upper class. Where I truly believe the middle class is falling away very quickly. Soon it’ll be lower and upper class! No in between and that scares me! So… The onus now lies YOU. You really need to adapt, adopt and integrate to this rapidly evolving landscape. Foe examples, if you possess the skills to work alongside AI, harness its potential, and contribute to its development, you’ll stand a chance in the job market. If you continue to learn new tricks, no matter how old or young of a dog you are. If you continue to upskill yourself. If you invest in yourself (physically, mentally and financially). You’ll have the upper hand. What are your thoughts? Do you think a lower NFP number is bad for tech stocks and an index like the NASDAQ? Do you think The Slight Depression is among us? Answer yes or no.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Timonrosso
Trend following trading strategy (works on all markets)This strategy is a trend following strategy to be applied when the market is uptrending. It demonstrates the significance of breakout levels which are very often retested prior to continuation to the upside. For Trend visualisation, 10, 20 and 50 Moving averages are used. If you apply ONLY this setup and and nothing else, you will have a statistical edge and be consistently profitable! All other info is on the chart. Good luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by NQunlocked
1
He who profits from a crime, commits it.(Seneca)Have asked yourself why Wallstreet Bets popularity and Best years for Citadel overlaps? Or Why Citadel’s CEO Keneth C. Griffins thanks WSB for creating the best pipeline they ever had? Let’s review some data before making any hypothesis..! Ken Griffin's Citadel raked in $16 billion in 2022, marking the best year for any hedge fund in history. Ken Griffin's Citadel posted a record $16 billion in profits last year, notching the largest gain in history. Citadel Securities is an American market making firm headquartered in Miami. It is one of the largest market makers in the world, and is active in more than 50 countries. The firm has said it handles about 40% of all US retail trading volume and one in every four US equities trades. Over 15 million people use Robinhood as their primary trading platform. Robinhood routes more than half of its customer orders to Citadel, by far its largest market-making partner by volume, Robinhood disclosures show. Robinhood is WSB's weapon of choice, investors and users who have no clue what they're doing. Why WSB users call themselves Apes? The study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2010 was conducted by a team of researchers led by Dr. Benjamin Hayden at the University of Rochester. The aim of the study was to investigate how monkeys make decisions when faced with the possibility of a reward and a risk. In the study, the researchers trained rhesus monkeys to perform a task where they had to choose between two symbols displayed on a computer screen. Each symbol was associated with a different amount of juice reward, but one of the symbols also had a chance of delivering a mild air puff to the face, which the monkeys found unpleasant. The researchers found that the monkeys were willing to take a higher risk when the potential reward was greater, which is consistent with what is observed in human decision-making. However, they also found that the monkeys continued to choose the risky option even when the potential reward was not worth the risk. To test whether the monkeys were aware of the risk and potential loss, the researchers introduced a "no-risk" option, where the monkeys could choose a symbol that guaranteed a small but safe reward with no chance of an air puff. Despite being aware of this option, the monkeys continued to choose the risky option and receive the air puff. This behavior suggests that the monkeys were not making rational decisions based solely on the potential reward, but were influenced by other factors such as the thrill of taking a risk or the fear of missing out on a potential reward. Overall, the study provides insight into how animals, including humans, make decisions when faced with risk and reward. It suggests that our decision-making is not always driven by rational calculations and that other factors such as emotions and social influence can play a role in our choices. Herd Mentality there are some theories and observations related to human behavior in financial markets that suggest that herd behavior and imitation can contribute to market bubbles. For example, some researchers have noted that investors often follow the behavior of others, rather than making independent decisions based on fundamental analysis or market trends. This can lead to a situation where a large number of investors all buy or sell the same assets, creating a "herd" effect that can drive prices up or down rapidly. In some cases, this behavior can contribute to the creation of market bubbles, where asset prices become significantly inflated due to speculation and investor enthusiasm. Eventually, however, these bubbles tend to burst, resulting in significant losses for those who were caught up in the frenzy. I think any rational mind has enough information to conclude the schema we are dealing with in the past 3 years! I would like to end this article with Edward O Thorp quote: When I shifted my focus from beating gambling games to analyzing the stock market, I naively thought that I was leaving a world where cheating at cards was then problematic and entering an arena where regulation and the rule of law gave investors a fair playing field. Instead, I learned that bigger stakes attracted bigger thieves. Best,
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
2
Lazyluchi Talks Relative Strength IndexNow I've been TRADING trend continuation for 180 days now and I had something come to me on WEDNESDAY. The market being in an over bought or sold situation can affect our TRADES. I'll be making use of the RSI to aid my setups (that is: where my SLs and TPs even entries will be). Here are rules that can guide you after watching the video. RULES OF THE RSI 1. Above 50% is BULLISH Below is BEARISH 2. When taking TRADES be sure to know where the 50% is. 3. Don't TRADE counter 4. Know thy 20% and 80% 5. Always draw three lines (80,50, and 20) Then know the dominating structure, and take that TRADE 6. In an UPTREND, know thy 20 and 50 (wait for it to break above the 50 to BUY) 7. In a DOWNTREND, know they 80 and 50 wait for it to break below to SELL) 8. STRATEGY: trend following with breakouts 9. The RSI helps to avoid overbought and sold situations Some abbreviations I'll be using would all make sense when I start. I'll be labelling the 80%,50% and 20% levels. 80 and 50 for the BEARS, 20 and 50 for the BULLS. The DIVERGENCE and STRUCTURES will still be in the works. Stay tuned for them RSI trades. Enjoy!
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
0
by lazyluchi
1
9 SIGNS You're Trading Well! Trading well is a marathon and not a quick race. It doesn’t matter how much money you banked in a week, winners you took or how much money you have in your account. What does matter is one word “Persistence”. And with persistence comes, 10 signs that you’re doing well with trading. Let’s get to them… Sign #1: You have the passion to LEARN how to trade When you learn to trade, it’s not only a strategy game but also a self-introspection journey. You get to understand who you are as a trader in a way that you learn: • What time you wish to trade • What markets you’d like to look at • The instrument you want to buy/sell • The broker that best suits your needs If you have the passion to learn what fits your personality when trading, it’s a good sign you’ll do super… Sign #2: You have a solid daily trading routine There is no right or wrong way to go about your trading. Once again, it’s what you feel comfortable with on a daily or weekly basis. Maybe it is reading MATI Trader first thing in the morning, then going through your watchlist and seeing which trades are lining up. Afterwards you set your trading levels and take your trade. Whatever your trading routine is, make sure you have a checklist to follow. Sign #3: You have strict rules to follow Rules are the only way to find consistent opportunities within the chaos. I have three rules with trading. 1. Never risk more than 2% per trade (no matter the portfolio account). 2. Never risk any money you can’t afford to lose 3. Never hold more than 5 trades at any one time. If you have rules to follow, you’re doing well… Sign #4: You have tunnel vision There are no two traders that are the same. This means, when you know who you are, you’ll know to ONLY follow your rules, strategy and vibe. If someone tries to change your mind, put your blinkers on and remember the proven strategy you KNOW works. Don’t listen to others and don’t care about where other traders are in their career. Sign #5: You have a track record Whether you’re still demo-trading or live-trading, it doesn’t matter. All you need to make sure is that you have an excel sheet or written pad with all of your trades you have taken or backtested. This is will remind you and give you proof of what works and will make you a consistent income during your trading. Sign #6: You have the time to trade You’ll need to choose the time, that suits you best to analyse and trade the markets. It can be first thing in the morning, during your break in the afternoon or even 2am when you wake up and can’t go back to sleep. Sign #7: You can psychologically handle it Trading is mostly mindset. How you deal with your winners, losers and with your trading longevity. If you are prepared to mentally handle everything trading comes with – you’re well on your way to a bright trading future. Sign #8: You have a dream As much as trading is fun during the process, we all have a future idea on where trading will take us. Some want to travel around the world and not have to worry about budgeting. Others want to just spend their time during retirement keeping their brain active and seeing trading as a forever-challenge. Me, I love to trade, teach how to trade and create financial freedom for my future and for generations to come. What is your dream? Sign #9: You have your trading system The game-plan… Do you know where to enter, exit and place your risk levels every time? If so, GOOD. You have a trading system. This is all part of trading well. If you enjoyed this article feel free to LIKE and Follow for more daily trading tips articles. This is information I've gathered since 2003. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Timonrosso
10 Steps to Start Trading WellTo start anything in life, no matter what it is or how long it may seem, you need to take the first step. With trading it’s the same, with one little difference. You have the opportunity to learn the costly mistakes, tips and the strategies that have worked for other successful traders. This way you can, take the shortcut to kick start your trading career, make it easier and more enjoyable. Here are ten quick steps you can take to start your trading on the right path. STEP 1: Choose the market/s you’d like to trade (Shares, Forex, Commodities, Indices or Crypto-currencies). STEP 2: Choose a broker or market maker you’ll trade with (Make sure they offer CFDs or Spread Betting trading). STEP 3: Learn how the trading and charting platform works (Call your broker who’ll be happy to help with the above first steps). STEP 4: Make sure you have a proven and a profitable trading strategy (Every strategy needs to have its own entry, exit levels and risk management rules). STEP 5: Back-test your trading strategy (Back test 20 trades and then forward test 20 trades on your paper account). STEP 6: Deposit money into account (You can start trading with less than R1,000 to test the markets in real-time). STEP 7: Take every trade according to the strategy (This way you can develop your track record). STEP 8: Track your trading performance to ensure your portfolio is on the up (Win rate, average winner, average loser, no. of winners, losers and other metrics). STEP 9: Read more trading books and watch YouTube videos to learn extra tips (Each tip can help boost your winners, cut losers and increase your win rate). STEP 10: Keep your head in the game (You’ll need passion, integration and determination to maintain your trading career). It’s your turn Print and laminate these steps, so you know how to start trading – the right way. Trade well, live free. Timon MATI Trader
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Timonrosso
1
This is the chart that I use to trade the NASDAQ100 CFDs.I use hourly range charts to analyse the distribution of the market. Range charts make it easier to see the extremes in the chart. I also look at the time and the range of the hour. Statistically, 61.8% time market should range. Also, the market should stay in the same range 61.8% until the next day or session. Draw your volume profile. Mark the time of the day. Price moves away from the mean as well as moves toward the mean. That is the characteristic of a normal distribution.
NEducation
by rangika_ailapperuma
1
Rate of change could be more important than the change..!Rate of change is used to mathematically describe the percentage change in value over a defined period of time, and it represents the momentum of a variable. The calculation for ROC is simple in that it takes the current value of a stock or index and divides it by the value from an earlier period. Subtract one and multiply the resulting number by 100 to give it a percentage representation.(Investopedia) What Is Volatility? Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. In most cases, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. Volatility is often measured as either the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. (Investopedia) What Is Dispersion? Dispersion is a statistical term that describes the size of the distribution of values expected for a particular variable and can be measured by several different statistics, such as range, variance, and standard deviation. In finance and investing, dispersion usually refers to the range of possible returns on an investment. It can also be used to measure the risk inherent in a particular security or investment portfolio. (Investopedia) My observation: One day rate of change dispersion almost doubled in the past 5 months, which means market risk has been doubled at least! Conclusion: In a market with higher risk and higher volatility there is a greater chance of getting stoped out (losing money)even if your analysis is correct! Solution: Trade less frequently and sit on cash(30-70%) The most important point in trading is: Managing the Risk correctly..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
1
Re-Distribution or Accumulation that is the question???Let's observe charts the way Wyckoff looked at them: Analysis of supply and demand on bar charts, through examination of volume and price movements, represents one of the central pillars of the Wyckoff method. Wyckoff's third law (Effort versus Result) involves identifying price-volume convergences and divergences to anticipate potential turning points in price trends. To answer this question we need to get help from the volume of QQQ: Analysis of supply and demand on bar charts, through examination of volume and price movements, represents one of the central pillars of the Wyckoff method. Wyckoff's third law (Effort versus Result) involves identifying price-volume convergences and divergences to anticipate potential turning points in price trends. My observation: Possibly we are in the AR zone..! Why? AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short-covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. The last upward move happened just before the Quadruple Witch on March 18, 2022, and since the market was down constantly before it, it makes the short-covering rally justifiable..! *March 15, 2022 recommendation: Recommendation: Be careful if you have had shorted the market, realize the gains and wait ..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
5
History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes( Mark Twain)If you want to have a good forecast, you need to calculate all the possibilities ..! A comparison between 2008 & 2022: A Comparison between 2000 & 2022: My Observation: 1- In the 2000 market crash, after the early -39.5% market bounce back 43% in the next 3 months and then go down 73%. 2-In the 2008 market crash, after the early -25.5% market bounce back 23% in the next 3 months and then go down 50%. Conclusion: We can be in the early Bear market and go up in the next 8-12 weeks, very similar to 2000 and 2008 bear markets..! Recommendation: Be careful if you have had shorted the market, realize the gains and wait ..! Educational points: 1-Always look at the previous behavior before making a new forecast and taking action..! 2-Always consider all possible scenarios..! 3- Re-evaluate your positions..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
15
An Important Observation for Option Traders..! Market GapsAll traders have noticed the change in the market behavior in 2022..! This a market like you never have seen before..! This is the second-worst start of the year for US equities in 123 years. For context, the -11.9% drop in the first 44 trading days in 2022 is only rivaled by the 1920 Great Depression and the Great Financial Crisis. (MacroAlf, Author of The Macro Compass, a free newsletter delivering financial education, macro insights & investment ideas. Former Head of a $20bn Investment Portfolio.) Now, you might realize the reason why your old rules might not work..! What Is a Gap? A gap is an area discontinuity in a security's chart where its price either rises or falls from the previous day’s close with no trading occurring in between. Gaps are common when news causes market fundamentals to change during hours when markets are typically closed, for instance, an earnings call after-hours. (Investopedia) In 2022, 14 out of the past 45 trading days Nasdaq 100 has opened with a gap bigger than 1%..! Interestingly, the number of the Bullish and Bearish gaps are equal, 7 for each..! How significant this could be??? There was not a single Gap bigger than 1% in 2021..! Conclusion: Do not hold your option position overnights..! The chance of losing all your premiums is high..! It applies to those who use statistics to trade, gamblers can do whatever they want as usual..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
4
Do not down play Volatility..!What Is Volatility? Oxford Dictionary: Liability to change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse. Finance: Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility : measures a time series of past market prices. Volatility effects on assets: Volatile assets are often considered riskier than less volatile assets because the price is expected to be less predictable. Volatility effects on investors: The wider the swings in an investment's price, the harder emotionally it is to not worry..! How to handle the volatility??? Let's learn from legends George Soros: When a long-term trend loses its momentum, short-term volatility tends to rise. It is easy to see why that should be so: the trend-following crowd is disoriented. Jim Simons: When market volatility surged, Renaissance’s system tended to automatically reduce positions and risk. Question: Are you smarter than Jim Simons? If your answer and trading track record show, you are not, decrease your exposure to the market! If your answer is Yes: You will be washed out from the market soon... Reference Article: www.investopedia.com Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
2
Using different deflactors on IndexesHere I put up a series of deflactors on the Nasdaq 100 Total Return... I like to use Total Return Indexes becuase they acurately reflect the actual growth of the invested money, rather than simple price indexes... I picked the Nasdaq because as you may have noticed from previous posts the Nasdaq is the absolute winner in terms of performance in the last 15 years... also (unfortunately) I did not find a Total Return option for the S&P500 on Tradingview... actually it's quite bad out there, even spglobal.com doesn't seem to publish those anymore, much less deflated with CPI... Anyway, moving to the chart here we present a series of deflactors applied to the $NDX Total Return since INCEPTION: 1. Gold 2. CPI 3. CPI+DXY 4. M2 (Fred money stock) 5. REAL M2 (Fred money stock with CPI) I found the Real M2 the most interesting idea, for in a high monetary inflation environment, Real M2, purges the nominal M2 (total monetary inflation) of its price inflation "component", and comes to a somehwat more balanced deflaction than the original metric (435% performance using M2 Real, vs 275% using the Pure M2 deflactor)
NASDAQ:NTTREducation
by LotusTrading20
3
Here are few bad traits that burn tradersHello traders, Everyone of us have went through one or many of these traits listed here. Some of us are still struggling with this. Honestly, trading psychology is less taught in the trading world and this has become one of the contributing factors that causes traders to lose money and give up trading. These traits, if they are not controlled they can burn accounts and even leave a trader in a lot of debts which will lead to depression. It is always best to know oneself, list down all the traits that are manifested when in front of the screen and evaluate oneself what might be causing these traits and look for ways to control this. One can start sweating immediately he starts watching price swings and another can begin increasing the lot sizes after a loss hoping to recover the money lost. One can begin to be very confident in his new-found strategy that gave him profit 5 times in a row and only go harder the sixth time and loose it all. Another one sees a 24 year old boy on Instagram driving a Lamborghini that he apparently bought cash from the money he made from Forex in just 6 months and throw 100k in his trading account and risk it all. One loss after another, until the losses accumulates to thousands of dollars and eventually a trader begins to feel worthless and give up. It is not only about a strategy, your strategy can be good, if you do not have the right mindset-the mind of a trader, your strategy is useless. Safeguard your mind by feeding it with health stuffs, learn the proper way of investing, plan for a long term, write down your plans and work according to your plans-never ever deviate from them. Today, there are so many trading gurus-just how they are flexing about how they are making money from Forex, this tempts you to pull the MT4 trigger, aimlessly, hoping you can be like them. If you envy them and are making you feel greedy- unfollow them. Hahahaha. Trading isn't simple, if it were, I bet 90% of retail traders could be millionaires. Be patient with yourself, set long term goals and be determined to reach those goals slowly. Above all, continue acquiring knowledge and be humble to admit that no one knows it all. Me and you are a grain of sand on the seashore compared to the giant market.
FX:NAS100Education
by Forexintelligence_NA
2
These few chart patterns will improve your trading!Hello everyone, Let's look at few of my favorite chart patterns that I use from day to day in my trading and analyses. These patterns appears in almost every asset, instrument and currency pairs in the financial market and stock market. Forex chart patterns are on-chart price action patterns that have a higher than average probability of follow-through in a particular direction. They have offer significant clues to price action traders that use technical chart analysis in their forex trading decision process. Each chart pattern has the potential to push the price toward a new move. Forex traders tend to identify chart patterns in order to take advantage of upcoming price swings. Forex trading patterns are divided in groups based on the potential price direction of the pattern. There are three main types of chart patterns classified in Forex technical charting: 🔹 Continuation Chart Patterns 🔹 Reversal Chart Patterns 🔹 Neutral Chart Patterns 1. Bullish Flag In the context of technical analysis, a flag is a price pattern that, in a shorter time frame, moves counter to the prevailing price trend observed in a longer time frame on a price chart. It is named because of the way it reminds the viewer of a flag on a flagpole. The flag pattern is used to identify the possible continuation of a previous trend from a point at which price has drifted against that same trend. Should the trend resume, the price increase could be rapid, making the timing of a trade advantageous by noticing the flag pattern. In this scenario a bullish flag can be a sign that the previous bullish move that occurred prior to this pattern is likely to continue in the same direction. Opposite can be said with the bearish flag. 2. Double bottom The double bottom is a reversal pattern that occurs after an extended move down. The pattern signals that the market is unable to break through a key support level, and thus is likely to move higher. This pattern consist of 🔹First bottom 🔹Second bottom 🔹Neckline Neckline represents a resistance level that forms after the first bottom. A daily close above the neckline confirms the double bottom pattern. A total break through the neckline may confirm a violation of this pattern, long positions can opened once price has closed above the neckline at times a successful retest of price to the neckline can confirm a strong reversal. The opposite of this pattern is the Double Top which is a sign of reversal in bullish market, signaling a strong move to the downside. 3. Triple Bottom A triple bottom is a visual pattern that shows the buyers (bulls) taking control of the price action from the sellers (bears) and that price is about to change direction to the upside. A triple bottom is generally seen as three roughly equal lows bouncing off support followed by the price action breaching resistance. The formation of triple bottom is seen as an opportunity to enter a bullish position. The triple bottom consist of: 🔹First bottom 🔹Second bottom 🔹Third bottom 🔹Neckline The opposite of the triple bottom is a triple top which can signal a move to the downside. 4. Head and Shoulders A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks: The outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal, while an inverse head and shoulders indicates the reverse. The head and shoulders pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns, but does have its limitations. 5. Rectangle A rectangle occurs when the price is moving between horizontal support and resistance levels. The pattern indicates there is no trend, as the price moves up and down between support and resistance. The rectangle ends when there is a breakout, and the price moves out of the rectangle. Some traders like to trade the rectangles, buying near the bottom and selling or shorting near the top, while others prefer to wait for breakouts. 6. Symmetrical Triangle The symmetrical triangle pattern is a continuation chart pattern like Ascending and Descending Triangle patterns. This pattern is characterized by two converging trend lines that connect a series of troughs and peaks. The trend lines should be converging to make an equal slope. This pattern indicates a phase of consolidation before the prices breakout. 7. Ascending Triangle The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation. Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form. 8. Cup and Handle The Cup and Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. There are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance. The opposite of this is the Inverse Cup and Handle that appears in the bearish market and that act as a continuation pattern and sponsor move to the downside after the breakout. Friends if you enjoy this educational contents please do not forget to show your support with likes. Do follow me for more future contents like this.
FX:NAS100Education
by Forexintelligence_NA
Jerome Powell Effect "FOMC"For many there is a question: What did happen yesterday? THE answer is, FOMC or what I like to call the Jerome Powell effect! Some newbies think it is just Elon Musk that could move the market with his words, and that is not just true! While the total cryptocurrency market cap is 2.25 trillion dollars (much lower than Apple with 2.94 or Microsoft 2.5 trillion market cap), The total market capitalization of the U.S. stock market is currently $48.5 trillion dollars (9/30/2021). No need to say the US stock market is 22 times bigger than the crypto market and the daily dollar value of trades is also 25-50 times bigger than the crypto market! Big money Listen to Jerome Powell..! What is the FOMC meeting? The Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy for the U.S., and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the committee that decides how to manage monetary policy. The FOMC meets eight times a year to debate interest rates, and vote on policies. Having said that, you can see the volatility of the market increase around FOMC and it could cause a lot of surprises! But if you're ready for such events that increase market volatility you can benefit from it a lot..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
3
What type of trader are you? Please comment belowHello friends, Today I thought in helping you understand different Forex Trader Types and probably you can identify yourself in which category you fit in so you know how to approach the market each day. There are 6 type of traders as far as I know: 1. News or Fundamental Traders ✅Fundamental traders focuses on Fundamental events that may potentially drive the market in a particular direction, causing spikes in a certain direction. ❇️This type of trading will be best for individual traders who likes to keep up with world events that can cause spikes in the market and seek to take advantage of these spikes that can last for a short period of time ranging from few seconds to 15 minutes. ✅This type of trading can be extremely risky as the market can change direction very fast which can cause a trader loosing his/her entire funds, but with good trading skills and experience this type of trading can be very rewarding and offers fast returns. ✅Fundamental Traders would seek to trade the Non-Farm Payroll data, employment figures, elections, CPI and GDP. 2. Scalpers ✅Scalpers are traders that focuses on holding positions for a short period of time from few seconds to a few minutes. ✅This type of trading requires a trader to sit on computer the whole day or during the time when the market is very volatile to take advantage of the small movements in the market to be able to make profit. ✅A trader may be inclined to take so many trades, making smaller profits each time to be able to make good return at the end of the day. 3. Day Trader ✅Day trader is more less like a scalper, taking short positions during the day and making sure that all positions are closed before the end of the day to stay away from negative news events, market gaps or widening of spread. ✅A day trader should be alert to changes in market direction and manage his positions swiftly and accordingly. 4. Swing Trader ✅Swing traders can hold positions for some couple of days and up to perhaps a couple of weeks. ✅Traders of this type analyses the market and take advantage of changes in trend direction and catch a trend while it is still fresh and ride this trend for a longer period of time before closing positions. ✅They would not be required to sit on computer the whole day. Rather, they would analyse, calculate the cost and take the position and they will only get back to computer after some couple of hours or another day to monitor the movement. ✅This type of trading is good for those that hold other businesses or jobs as they can make time for other activities to be done. 5. Position Traders ✅Positions traders hold trades for longer periods of time ranging from a several weeks to years. ✅For this type of trading patience is required to be able to hold trades for that long and a trader should have a very good knowledge about what moves currencies in a long term. ✅That also means that swap charges will be a lot and as a position trader he should put that into consideration before taking a long term position. 6. EA, Algorithmic Trader ✅These type of traders rely more or solely on computer algorithm programs to make buy and sell decisions for them. The EA also known as Expert Advisor may place trades on behalf of the trader and even closing trades when in profit. ✅Although the EA performs most of the work, a trader should also have basic knowledge of trading to be able to gain some measure of success from this type of trading. Why is it important to trade in your local currency? ✅It can save you from a lot of calculations. When you trade in a currency which is not your local currency, your mind processes so much information to convert every number to your local currency. Your mind will be tired at the end of the day and you will begin making unplanned trades. ✅I watched a video on this topic recently and this fellow mentioned the same thing that I always thought, when you trade in a currency which is not your own, you wouldn't respect money. For example, $50 US dollar would look smaller if you are a trader living and using South African Rand. You may want to wait for more to be satisfied as the number 50 may look smaller in the eyes. But if we convert USD50 to South African Rand it would be R725.38 today and for many that would be a 4 days wage. ✅Many traders, especially new ones in the Forex industry, they really do not know what they want and how to go about making things work out consistently for them, they only think if they keep buying and selling eventually they can hit a million dollar and get away from the financial distress and poverty. Probably that is how the Forex Market is perceived, that giant casino that makes people rich and such way of thinking can destroy one's life and everything he acquired for years. The most important thing here is to respect money, knowing that it is very hard to obtain. As we respect it in our homes, hiding it from our siblings or relatives, we should respect it on the MT5 or MT4. Money is like Gold in our days, if you really want to know how important money is, get a spade and go dig for Gold. I wish I could write more, but I feel like I have written more already and some people may find this boring to read. Please hit that like button if you learned something from here. Feel free to comment below what you have learned or the type of trader you are. Many Good wishes for you, Forexintelligence AKA the Sniper:)
FX:NAS100Education
by Forexintelligence_NA
10