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Oil Short From 108$ Oil has been propped up in recent days on the back of EU embargo on Russian oil rumours. It seems as if there might be a consensus among the member states but most are requesting exemptions for at least a matter of years before they are forced to get off it. China are also struggling with COVID-19 implications, lockdowns and seems as though the supply chain link to the U.S. is also becoming strained once again. On the back of that demand decline in China, potential slowdown in the U.S. as a result of that and combination of higher rates.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
5
MEDIUM TERM WTI CRUDE OIL ANALYSISHEY ZEYAN HERE Hello, zeyan. I was previously fairly bullish on oil, but as I can see now, oil prices will be settling back to below 100, with 82.50 being the next best probable position. this is an idea a plan in a uncertain chaotic environment out of multiple plans to be certain IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational biase on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
TVC:USOILShort
by zeyankhan1318
Bearish News Is Mounting For Oil18 hours ago,I read:CHINA-Lockdown and I shorted immediately all my positions in crude,brent and WTI.In some I took the losses,other Break even or profits. The fact is :My decision was King.Our Jobs as Traers is to be flexible and adapt as soon as possible to the market circumtances.Sosometimes News catalysts like these help to decide immediately. Although our system tells us the oppositite:THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE MARKET PRICE ACTION. And price action are made by the smart money. Sofollowthe money.Be alwaysflexible and have an edge beide your trading system.Such as News catalyst. Oil prices remained fairly stable this week, with ICE Brent balancing slightly above the $100 per barrel mark. Fears of Russian supply disruptions were temporarily put on the back burner by the vast IEA-coordinated inventory release that greatly helped in flattening out the futures curves of all three key crude benchmarks. The extensions of COVID lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai, have also helped the bearish cause, however it remains to be seen how long will it take for disruption fears to resurface again. IEA to Release 60 Million Barrels of Strategic Stocks. Above and beyond the US’ 180-million-barrel stock draw, IEA countries agreed to release 60 million barrels over the upcoming six months, with Japan taking a prime role amidst the relatively timid commitments of others, pledging to release 15 million barrels. EU to Ban Russian Coal, with Delay. According to media reports, the European Union’s approval of a ban on Russian coal imports would take full effect from mid-August, following internal lobbying from Germany to extend the deadline as far out as possible to allow usual buying in the four-month wind-down period. Chile Sues Mining Giants over Atacama Water Use. The government of Chile is suing mining majors BHP (NYSE:BHP) and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) over alleged environmental damage caused by their operations in the Atacama desert, draining the area’s aquifer by increased exploitation. US EPA Denies 36 Refinery Biofuel Waivers. The US Environmental Protection Agency declined 36 exemption waivers coming from oil refiners for the 2018 compliance year, confirming a 2020 court decision that significantly narrowed the criteria on who could be eligible for blending exemptions. Canada Approves $12 Billion Bay du Nord Project. The Canadian government approved the $12 billion offshore Bay du Nord project that would be operated by Equinor (NYSE:EQNR), having found no adverse environmental effects, marking the country’s first deep-water project that took years to greenlight. Tight Oil Markets Are Sending Fuel Margins Through The Roof The oil price rally has really cooled down over the past two weeks, with oil prices declining to levels last seen prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brent oil (CO1:COM) prices fell ~2% Thursday to trade below $100/b, while the price for a barrel of Brent for June 2022 delivery has fallen from $127/b one month ago to $99/b today. Pandemic-related lockdowns in Shanghai, slowing U.S. oil demand growth, and a historic strategic petroleum reserve release have all contributed to the selloff. Interestingly, medium-term prices have hardly budged as near-term oil prices have fallen by over 20%, indicating a still-bullish longer-term outlook. That said, whereas it's crude markets that have been hogging the limelight, the most dramatic action in global oil markets has been happening in a more hidden corner of the market: distillate fuels. The price of diesel and jet fuel in Europe hit a record in early March amid unusually tight supplies. Both commodities have since pared some of their gains, but refiners are still making a killing. Indeed, in another sign of impending distillate fuel shortages, jet fuel traded at ~$320/b in New York on Monday ($7.61/g), a massive ~$200+ premium to crude feedstock prices. The jet fuel premium is currently ~10x larger than any premium seen in the past 30yrs. High Fuel Margins To Last There's a good chance that high fuel prices will ultimately lead to demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs says distillate fuel demand is likely to remain strong and margins to remain high due to these factors: Diesel and jet fuel stocks are at historic lows, and seasonally-adjusted inventory draws are large and accelerating. Jet fuel consumption is poised to accelerate into summer with a return to international travel. High natural gas prices will lead to "gas-to-oil" switching in Europe and Asia. The Russia / Ukraine war will reduce distillate supply, as Russia exports ~900kb/d of diesel fuel and ~900kb/d of residual feedstocks, which are largely upgraded into diesel by European and Chinese refiners. Refinery operating costs are increasing, particularly in Europe. In fact, Goldman sees current record margins sustaining through at least year end. In the U.S., names like Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC )and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) stand to benefit from higher refining margins while in Europe, Saras (OTCPK:SAAFY) is most exposed. Meanwhile, during its Q1 earnings preview, Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) mentioned improving refining margins, with indicators nearly doubling quarter over quarter. Falling Russian Exports Another reason to be bullish about fuel margins: falling Russian exports. Russia is a key source of distillate fuel for Europe and the world. Shortly after the war began, BP Plc (NYSE:BP) and Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) stopped selling spot diesel in Germany. Last week, Argentina’s YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) cited diesel "scarcity" in the seaborne market. Jet fuel margins in New York harbor rose to $200/b earlier in the week, a ten-fold increase from historic averages. Attempts to measure the impact of self sanctioning on Russian exports have seen mixed results, with some studies suggesting that exports have largely continued to flow unchanged while others say they could have declined by as much as 3.0mb/d. Thus far, the only measurable impact on exports has come from a terminal outage—a terminal that primarily carries Kazakhstani crude to market. So far, Russia's pivotal energy sector has been largely spared from sanctions. But damning evidence of serious war crimes coming from Ukraine suggests that Russia could very well face more severe sanctions, including a ban on its oil by European nations. Related: Oil Rises As Videos Emerge Of Attack On Saudi Oil Facility Since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine, turning their assault on the south and east, grim images from the town of Bucha near Kyiv, including a mass grave and bound bodies of people shot at close range, have prompted international outrage. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered estimate that a move towards explicit EU sanctions on Russian oil imports would keep Russian output below 8.5mb/d for several years, good for a 3mb/d decline compared to pre-invasion levels, and introduce further downside to already low expectations for Russian oil output. According to StanChart, the EU's most likely immediate measure--i.e., imposing sanctions on coal--will do little to placate member states and public opinion for a significant ratcheting up of the pressure on Russia. Further, EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas would send a strong signal that Russian oil is unlikely to regain its former market in Europe for an extended period, if ever. EU sanctions will also likely increase the pressure on key countries, and particularly India, not to increase their imports from Russia above pre-invasion levels; up to now, part of the pushback from other users of Russian oil has been that they could not be expected to refrain from extra purchases if EU governments were not explicitly limiting their own use. In other words, fuel margins might remain elevated for many months, if not years.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
OIL SHORT BACK TO MAIN TREND IF CLOSE OUTSIDE 50 MOVING AVERAGEHi there, As you see on the chart, OIL has closed below the 50MA on the daily time frame. We need to see a full candle close below 50MA for short. It is still above the 200MA so still a bullish trend up. But we may want to catch the fall back to the main trend. You can see our entry and profit target. Profit target = next support point. Entry Point = Ideally we should wait for a retest and reject from the 50MA to enter for the fall. Indicator: > MACD = showing sell but need more sellers > RSI = below 50, need more strength to the down side We don't want to see OIL close inside the symmetric triangle. kind regards
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingProXY
The Real Reason U.S. Oil Producers Are Exercising Caution BCO WTI SHORT SHORT TERM MIDTERM LONG Sky-high oil prices have left both America’s oil industry and its President pointing fingers at one another. Biden has repeatedly called on the oil industry to increase production, but the industry has been slow to act, and perhaps for good reason. Historically, the oil industry has ramped up production when prices rose to meaningful levels, but the crashes have provided producers with some key lessons along the way. In the months leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. oil production hit an all-time high of just below 13 million barrels per day (BPD). As the pandemic unfolded, demand collapsed, and production followed. By May 2020, oil production had dropped by more than 3 million BPD to 9.7 million BPD. Since then, demand has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Oil production, however, has only partially recovered. The most recent data available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows current U.S. oil production at ~11.6 million BPD — still 1.4 million BPD short of pre-pandemic production. This shortfall is a major factor that led to the run-up of oil and gasoline prices over the past year. When the pandemic crushed oil demand in 2020, some oil companies went out of business. Some small stripper wells — which accounts for a respectable amount of U.S. oil production — were permanently capped given the bleak outlook. Some workers left the oil industry. Now, with oil prices over $100/bbl, many are questioning why production hasn’t bounced all the way back. The Biden Administration has pointed fingers at the oil industry, stating they have stockpiled 9,000 permits they aren’t using. The oil industry says that the problem — in part — is the hostile policies of the Biden Administration. Setting politics aside, here is what we know. The part about the oil industry stockpiling permits — mostly ahead of President Biden taking office — is true. I have reported on this before. However, that doesn’t mean they are sitting on them. Obtaining a permit is just one step in the chain that ultimately results in oil production. There are many other links in that chain, some of which are still problematic today. Further, they can’t just sit on the permits. There is generally a “use it or lose it” provision that requires them to give up a permit if they don’t develop the lease over a specified period. Thus, we have oil production that can’t bounce back quickly because some has been shut in, and new production that can’t proceed as quickly due to manpower and material shortages (e.g., fracking sand). It’s not simply that oil companies are sitting on permits. They are working through them. The number of rigs drilling for oil and gas has risen by 60% over the past year. But it can take years for a permit to translate into oil production (if the location even yields oil). But why did they stockpile so many permits? Stacey Morris, who is Director of Research for midstream index and data provider Alerian elaborated on these issues when I reached out to her for comment: “The President mentioned thousands of permits on federal lands. The permit number is inflated from stockpiling. Companies stockpiled permits on federal lands leading up to the President’s inauguration, because several Democratic candidates, including the president, supported banning new drilling permits on federal lands. Permits do not equate to production. There are a number of steps between securing a permit and actually bringing a well to production, and issues like labor constraints and fracking sand shortages are added obstacles.” That leads me to another issue with the oil companies themselves, where Ms. Morris added: “Investors have demanded that producers maintain capital discipline and grow volumes modestly. Returns have taken priority over growth. Up until recently, a producer planning to significantly grow production volumes would likely have been punished by investors. However, that sentiment may be changing with oil prices where they are and the potential need to replace Russian barrels on the global market. The geopolitical situation and oil price level may give US producers a license to grow volumes more meaningfully. It takes time for producers to respond to prices, though, and the price signal was not strong enough for E&Ps to potentially veer from their plans for moderate growth until recently. Private producers have been able to ramp upstream activity more meaningfully given that they do not have to answer to a public investor base.” Oil companies regularly lose money. In four of the past ten years, the oil industry lost money. Big oil lost $76 billion just two years ago. Therefore, they are proceeding with caution. They are maintaining more capital discipline. They aren’t rushing to do projects with the assumption that oil prices will remain above $100/bbl. They are doing projects with the assumption that in a year or more when the projects might pay off, oil prices will have retreated to well below $100/bbl. On this issue, the Biden Administration is correct. The oil industry is going slow. But this belies a misunderstanding of how long it takes to execute a project. Oil companies don’t have crystal balls. They have to make decisions now based on where they think prices are headed. Because of multiple collapses in oil prices over the past decade, they are proceeding with more caution and capital discipline. These are issues in which there seems to be a great deal of misunderstanding — which leads to finger-pointing — between the Biden Administration and the oil industry. Given the circumstances, as I wrote previously I believe the Biden Administration should convene a summit with the heads of the major oil companies. There should be frank dialogue, and the outcome should be clearly communicated to the world.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
Oil in the fall? update (2)This analysis is purely a personal analysis Reaching the desired price range, we will review it once again Hints 1. This analysis is checked in the weekly time frame, so each of the waves has the necessary time to form between a few weeks to several months, and a total of one to two years. 2. For convenience, it refuses to go into details so that the trader can easily understand it. 3. The study was performed in the form of Elliott and canalization using Macd indicator Analysis Description: Oil is on a long-term upward trajectory annually, so after the proper growth of oil prices and the failure of the downtrend, higher goals are pursued, but what is clear is that each impulse step needs a active step to rest. So it can be said that in the next few weeks to a few months, the oil route is expected to be relatively upward to reach its $ 114 target to complete a complete cycle. And then it enters a correction cycle that can take up to two years, so expecting to see $ 35- $ 45 as a midline target is not unexpected. Note: Proper insight into considering all possible scenarios then 1. Short-term visions Long-term to medium-term are well defined We have a temporary uptrend and targets of $ 114 and $ 105 for it Then for several months the rest of the movement shifted and, the price suffered And then move to the channel midline for several months At the end of this analysis is only a personal analysis and there is no certainty in doing or not doing it ......
TVC:UKOILShort
by cafe_chart_