Elliott Wave View: Oil Resumes Lower ImpulsivelyShort term Elliott Wave view on Oil suggests wave (B) rally ended at 63.38 on September 17, 2019 high. The commodity has since turned lower within wave (C) which is unfolding as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. This view will get validation when it breaks below the previous low on August 7, 2019 low (50.52). Down from 63.38, wave 1 ended at 57.67 and the bounce to 59.54 ended wave 2. Oil then resumes lower in wave 3 which is extended and subdivides as an impulse in lesser degree.
Wave ((i)) of 3 ended at 58.01 and wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at 59.39. Wave ((iii)) of 3 ended at 53.05 and wave ((iv)) of 3 ended at 54.42. Near term, while bounce stays below 59.54, expect Oil to extend lower to continue the 5 waves move from September 17, 2019 high (63.38). We don’t like buying Oil and as far as pivot at 59.54 stays intact, expect any bounce to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing.
Oilshort
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OIL - Mind the gapAfter the drone attacks oil opened with a gap on Monday morning,
but today instead of going higher it started to try to fill the gap again.
It also break below Monday mornings low so the chance is pretty high that it's going to
drop to 54,84 and fill the gap.
There is also a chance that it's going to tag the bottom of the range at 53$.
Today's volume is pretty high, let's see if we can fill the gap.
CLX9 Fading Short SetupSeemingly oil has run into the supply area via profit booking. The traders are reducing short risk exposure and are likely to enter for continuation on a pullback. The fading short setup looks valid at this point. However, in the context of the recent price action, the probability of this trade is not the best that we could have.
I've just sold OILI've just sold OIL right now.
Oil is ranging into some sort of a range into a downtrend. We are now at the higher part of this range and yesterday we got a nice pinbar on the daily chart.
The bottom of this range is 53 so it give us a decent reward/risk ratio.
On the 1H chart we are just below the pivot and we have a great divergence with the MACD.
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Oil - Zig Zag Correction to $32Between October 2017 and the beginning of 2019, we have seen a 5 wave move from the mid 70's to the low 40's.
Any move that starts with a 5 wave move will end with and at least an equal 5 to complete what is called a Zig Zag pattern.
The was a correction back to test the bottom of the previous wave. This didn't complete a 5 wave move, therefore this must be a 3 wave corrective move, which is the pattern that
sits in the middle of a Zig Zag. An equal move for the top of the 3 wave pattern put the target for oil at $32.
This is confirmed by the RSI failing to get over 60 and forming a double top formation. The entry begin the crossing of the RSI moving averages.
We also saw a large move in the Composite Index, were price did not follow (purple arrow) and a divergence with the RSI giving weight to the analysis.
Any time a indicator moves a great distance and price does not move, and your position is in the direction of the indicator, you are on the wrong side of the market.
This target of $32 is very conservative, as some Zig Zag patterns can run to 1.618 % of the first 5 wave move.
We won't see oil sit a this level for very long, as Zig Zag corrections are a quick and fast way for the market correct, before making a
larger move higher.
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From the chart we can see that this week price broke though our trend line after respecting our resistance zone yesterday, price fell out the sky yesterday afternoon the bears must have been in a hurry, but now we can see bulls taking over for a while and pushing price back up to retest our trend line which just happens to fall in our resistance zone making this a strong setup for a sell.
So we are looking for a re test of our trend line before entering.
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From the chart we can see that this week price broke though our trend line after respecting our resistance zone yesterday, price fell out the sky yesterday afternoon the bears must have been in a hurry, but now we can see bulls taking over for a while and pushing price back up to retest our trend line which just happens to fall in our resistance zone making this a strong setup for a sell.
So we are looking for a re test of our trend line before entering.