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OPEC+ meeting incomingInitially postponed due to member disagreements, the OPEC+ meeting is now set for Thursday. Discussions are poised to delve into the consideration of deeper oil production cuts. Analysts foresee the potential extension or intensification of supply reductions into the coming year to stabilise oil prices, which currently hover around $80 a barrel. While the possibility of a collective reduction in output exists, specific details remain undisclosed. The delay stemmed from disagreements over output levels for African producers. However, indications suggest a closer approach to reaching a compromise. The meeting's agenda features discussions by an advisory panel followed by a session with OPEC+ ministers. Notably, members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia previously committed to significant oil output cuts. Current discussions revolve around the continuation of these reductions, including Saudi's voluntary production cut and Russia's export reduction, both set to expire by year-end. The likelihood of further oil cuts appears imminent, prompting us to refrain from offering a price prediction. However, I foresee a potential market shift—possibly a 1-2% increase if oil cuts are announced or a corresponding decrease in production sees an increase instead. My belief leans towards the former scenario. Nonetheless, any price hike might be short-lived as Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are set to expire by year-end. Henceforth, it pays to pay attention to this meeting and see what the fine details are.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Update - W/C 20 Nov 2023Last Monday we posted our weekly price prediction for Brent Crude Oil. The chart above is our analysis. You can see further analysis in our previous post. Our price prediction for last week was between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max). As you can see from the chart below our analysis proved true. The price stayed within the range. However, it followed the bearish indications more so than the bullish indications. The price hit the blue line resistance levels and proceeded to go down. Following the resistance line and finding some support in the High Volume Node from the Fixed Range Volume Profile. There are also fundamental factors at play here as well. OPEC+ delayed their meeting due on 26th November by four days due to conflicting opinions in the organisation, this is what also led to the price decline. If you had shorted the stock once it hit the blue line resistance level it would have netted you around 3.30% ROI to the current price. Not bad for a week.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
USOIL: Bearish channel with a consolidation phase before $70!The prices of oil appear very negative as they record losses for the fourth consecutive day. Markets are selling crude oil futures contracts due to the current division within OPEC+ on how to proceed, with the prospect of a lack of severe measures to support oil prices. The postponement of the OPEC+ meeting to a virtual mode on Thursday highlights a deep division within the organization, signaling an unfavorable situation for oil prices, which require a united front to maintain current levels. In addition to Thursday's OPEC+ meeting, the COP28 meeting will begin in Dubai. Several market participants have expressed their forecasts on OPEC+'s decisions. The consensus is that even if OPEC+ extends the current production cuts, it is unlikely to lead to a strong rally. Oil prices are poised for further declines as there are no measures in place against the considered bearish factors. On a daily basis, the price has been inside a bearish channel for days and continues to descend. Currently, it is positioned between a supply and demand zone very close to each other, which could create a period of stagnation or consolidation. The sentiment remains bearish, and personally, I expect the price to head towards the $70.00 per barrel area. Greetings from Gaia, wishing everyone a good trading day.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
3
Crude Oil Review and Forecast API Actual: 9.047M API Consensus: 1.467M EIA Crude Import Actual 0.259M EIA Crude Import Previous: -0.385M EIA Crude stock Actual: 8.701M EIA Crude stock consensus: 1.160M As Saudi Oil production had shrunk to nine million barrels per day in July since its last OPEC meeting with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening global demand in slowing economy, Saudi, the largest oil supplier in the world had expressed its opinion on keeping the production to remain low until the end of this year. As foreseen through such decisions from the major suppliers, the most recent Crude inventory within the states has turned out to be way larger than expected. Since September of 2023, the Crude oil future TVC:USOIL plunged by $-22.35 (-23.62%) to $72.28 per barrel during the last week trading session. Slower than expected recovery in economic activities(PPI Nov 2023) adding fear of the constant weakening of the oil demand, forecasting a skeptical view towards a short term recovery of the oil demand and its price as well. The key major resistances are as follow: Top: $77.8 Mid: $75.5 Low: $72.12 The weekly upside trend is still the last hope for the Bullish traders. Once both the Four-hours and the daily candles closes below the $64-60 zone, we will then be able to finalize on such ambiguous consensus. With OPEC+ meeting pushed back to this weekends, every commodity investors focus is on the meeting report, hoping for the decision to give them the better foresight of the future of the market. The Best Futures Trading Hours in Crude: CL opens for trading on the floor, called the pit session at 9AM EST European trading closes at 11:30 AM EST The best hours for trading are the most liquid, between 9:00AM and 11:30AM Pit session closes at 2:30PM EST, when floor trading stops for the day Therefore, the best trading in the afternoon is the last hour between 1:30PM to 2:30PM EST
TVC:USOILShort
by Kim_CLSPX
WTI - BEARISH OUTLLOKOPEC, deflecting blame for the oil market crash, slightly increased its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast to 2.46 million barrels per day. The group's aggressive production cuts, aiming for $100 per barrel, face skepticism. Market bears challenge OPEC's strategy, selling consistently for three weeks. Questions persist about OPEC+ members responding with additional production cuts. Despite concerns, OPEC's report downplays worries about demand, referencing exaggerated negativity around Chinese demand. In the market, WTI rose to $78.26 per barrel, up 1.4%, but ended the previous week down 4.1%. Brent settled at $82.54, up 1.4%, with Brent concluding the last week down 3.8%. The global crude benchmark also experienced an 11% decline in October. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by legacyFXofficial
Would the Middle East Conflict Push Gold and Oil Prices Higher?NYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ), COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Over the weekend, military conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine shocked the world. I condemn violence against civilians and pray for the victims and their families. In the following paragraphs, I will discuss how the prices of strategically important commodities, namely gold and crude oil, might respond to the eruption of a global crisis. Firstly, let’s look back into the recent past for those crises arising to a global scale. In the last five years, the world has witnessed three major crises of very different natures: • US-China Trade Conflict: from January 2018 to January 2020, the world’s two largest economies imposed import duties to each other in a series of escalating actions and retaliations. A major event occurred on September 18, 2018, where President Trump added 10% tariff on nearly all Chinese-made products. The US-China trade conflict forever altered the global supply chain, with its impact being felt till today. • Covid-19, the most severe pandemic in a century, from its outbreak in January 2020 to 2021. A big event that sparked market fear occurred on February 2, 2020, where the US imposed travel restrictions on incoming air passengers. • Russia-Ukraine Conflict: the first military conflict in Europe since World War II, from February 14, 2022, till now. Secondly, let’s measure how gold and WTI crude oil responded to these crises. For my analysis, I denote the day before Event Day as T0, where we may find last market prices before the impact hit. Event Day will be T+1, and then 1-week after (T+7), 1-month after (1M), 3-month after (3M), all the way through 1-year after (1Y). Here are what I found: US-China Trade Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,201.90 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -0.1% (T+1), +0.1% (T+7), +2.3% (1M), +3.3% (3M), +8.6% (6M), +11.6% (9M), +25.0% (1Y) • Comment: Trade tension between US and China could push the global economy into a recession. Gold, a safe-haven asset, saw its market value growing 25% in a year. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $69.86 per barrel • Price changes by time: +1.2% (T+1), +6.3% (T+7), +4.3% (1M), -27.7% (3M), -14.2% (6M), -24.6% (9M), -8.4% (1Y) • Comment: High tariff raised the price consumers had to pay, hence reducing demand. Crude was down 28% three months after the all-in tariff was imposed. Covid Pandemic • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,574.75 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -1.0% (T+1), -0.1% (T+7), +2.6% (1M), +8.5% (3M), +24.4% (6M), +21.2% (9M), +16.6% (1Y) • Comment: We saw the biggest stock market selloff in March 2020. Gold price was down initially as stock traders needed to raise money and meet margin calls. However, a flight to safety eventually took place, and gold was up 24% in six months. • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $53.09 per barrel • Price changes by time: -5.0% (T+1), -11.9% (T+7), -77.1% (1M), -61.4% (3M), -23.1% (6M), -31.1% (9M), +0.9% (1Y) • Comment: Rapid Covid outbreaks stroke fear. Lockdowns put global activities to a pause. The pandemic wiped out oil demand, with WTI falling 80% in a month. April 20, 2020 made history as oil price of the expiring contract went below zero. As storage cost more than selling price, traders were willing to pay others to take away the crude for free. Russia-Ukraine Conflict • Gold spot price (T0) = $1,854.60 per Troy Ounce • Price changes by time: -2.5% (T+1), -2.5% (T+7), +6.5% (1M), -1.8% (3M), -2.8% (6M), -5.0% (9M), +5.0% (1Y) • WTI crude oil spot price (T0) = $91.25 per barrel • Price changes by time: +4.7% (T+1), +5.3% (T+7), +30.7% (1M), +12.90 (3M), +1.1% (6M), +0.6% (9M), -17.2% (1Y) • Comment: A major military conflict in Europe significantly raised the global risk level. Gold, the safe-haven asset, and crude oil, an energy commodity critically important in wartime, both went up in the first month, by 6.5% and 30.7%, respectively. • However, the impact was short-lived. On March 16, 2022, the Fed begin hiking interest rates, which has become the driving force in global market. Impact from Russia-Ukraine became a secondary factor and sat in the back burner. To sum up the above examples, I observe that gold prices usually go up in the aftermath of a global crisis. Crude oil has a mixed bag of reactions. If a crisis results in economic recession and a consequential reduction in oil demand, oil prices would go down. However, in the case of a major war, oil price would go up due to its strategic importance. Review: Event-driven Strategy focusing on Global Crises In June 2022, I introduced a three-factor pricing model for commodities futures: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium Intrinsic Value is the baseline cash price of the underlying commodities, determined by available supply, demand, inventory, shipping costs, and factors affecting these variables. Market Sentiment indicates if investors are bullish or bearish. Whether speculative investors place more money on the long side or the short side affects the price of a futures contract. Market sentiment could be either positive or negative, resulting in a price premium or a discount of the intrinsic value. The new Crisis Premium factor captures “Event Shock” during a global geopolitical crisis. Previous trade example: Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28% of global wheat export. Wheat price shot up by 75% following the start of the conflict. I designed a Long Strangle options strategy on CBOT Wheat futures, and simultaneously bought out-of-the-money (OTM) call and put options. A “risk-on” outcome could push wheat price higher, making the calls more valuable, where a “risk-off” outcome would pull wheat price back down, making the puts in-the-money (ITM). Trading Opportunities with Micro Gold Since the September FOMC meeting, gold prices suffered a 6.3% drawdown, sending the futures price from $1,969 to $1,845. Friday settlement price was nearly 9% below the yearly high. On the one hand, high-interest money market funds beat out non-interest-yielding gold investment; on the other hand, strong dollar raised the cost of gold purchase by foreign investors. As a result, gold prices have been under pressure. However, my analysis illustrates that gold prices could rise in response to geopolitical conflicts. Since its founding, Israel had five major wars with its Arab neighbors. We do not know whether this time it would be contained as a regional conflict or spark a chain reaction of a global war. By the intensity of how it started, it doesn’t seem like a short one. To express a view of rising gold prices, we could consider a long position in COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). The December contract (MGCZ3) was settled at $1,845. Each contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces, or $18,450 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $780 per contract. Hypothetically, if gold futures go back up to $2020, its yearly high, the $175 ($2020-$1845) price increase would translate into $1,750 for a long futures position. If gold price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $10 per contract. Alternatively, we could consider the newly launched Micro Gold Options. A Long Strangle Options Strategy, where simultaneously buying OTM calls or puts, could be deployed if we expect a big move in gold price, but not certain of its direction. Trading Opportunities with WTI Crude Oil Since June, WTI crude oil first staged a nearly 40% rise, from $67 going to $93. However, it has seen a 9% drawdown since the Fed meeting on September 20th. A major military conflict in the Middle East, the world’s most important oil producing region, threatens to interrupt oil supply and push up oil price. If the conflict is escalated to involve major oil exporting nations, the situation could be dire. To express a view of rising crude price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX WTI Futures ( NYSE:CL ). The December contract (CLZ3) was settled at $83.18. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels, or $83,180 at market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $6,186 per contract. Hypothetically, if WTI futures go up above $100, which we saw from February to July 2022 in the first months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the $17 price increase would translate into $17,000 for a long futures position. If crude oil price goes down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $1000 per contract. Similarly, the newly launched Micro WTI Options could express a view that a big move in oil price is expected, without knowing its direction. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
35
CRUDE OIL - Entering Sideways Mode ✔️✔️Previously at FxProfessor: ✔️Perfect Long: ✔️Perfect Short: News: Oil continues to tumble after previous session's slide Here's the scoop: 📉 Prices took a tumble, with Brent crude down $1.19 to $84.62 a barrel and WTI crude dropping $1.31 to $82.91. Ouch! 📉 Yesterday, we saw a massive $5 drop, the biggest in over a year. The reason? A gloomier economic outlook and concerns about dwindling fuel demand after an OPEC+ meeting. 🛢️ OPEC+ decided to stick to its oil output policy. Saudi Arabia's holding onto a 1 million bpd cut until the end of 2023, and Russia's keeping a 300,000 bpd curb until December. No rush to boost supply, it seems. 🛢️ Russia also said, "No hurry" to lift the ban on fuel exports to tackle high local gasoline and diesel prices. 📉 National Australia Bank analysts are staying cautious, saying the market's still in deficit this quarter. Softening prices may mean OPEC won't ease supply restrictions anytime soon. 💶 On the flip side, the euro zone's facing economic challenges, with demand dropping in September due to rising borrowing costs and prices. 🇺🇸 In the U.S., gasoline demand hit a low not seen since the start of the year, coming in at 8 million bpd, according to the EIA. 📈 With all this uncertainty and weaker U.S. economic data, oil bulls might have a tough time pushing prices higher. 📊 Keep an eye on the market, and as always, trade wisely! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:USOIL
by FX_Professor
7
US Crude Oil 4H : waiting for meeting of the members of OPECUSOIL New forecast The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and price reached to our target . On Wednesday, there is a meeting of the members of OPEC Plus, and the decision is in their hands. Increase production. We will witness a decrease in prices. Extending the reduction, we will witness an increase in prices. Additionally tomorrow we have US crude oil stocks and it will affect on the market . Technical abstract : The price of oil is trading with noticeable positivity, attacking the 88.32 level and trying to stabilize above it, which requires attention in the upcoming trading, as stability above this level will stop the bearish corrective scenario and push the price to try to restore the main upward trend again and support the price to reach 91.14 and 92.48 again . Therefore we expect the upward trend in the coming period supported by bullish channel . Taking into account breach and stabilized under 87.75 will push the price to be under sell pressure and will postponed the bullish attempts Additionally ,Today News will affect the market . I prefer don't trade in this moment until tomorrow to know what the OPEC plus will do . support line : 91.14 , 90.55 resistance line : 92.48 , 94.02 Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
TVC:USOIL
by Arazmajeed
3
Oil: Supply Cut by OPEC+, Potential Bull Run?Hi Fellow Traders, Oil prices have impulsively rebounded after reaching the EMA200 line, thus continuing their bullish trend. Concurrently, the prices have formed a falling wedge pattern, which was subsequently followed by a breakout of said pattern. Additionally, the MACD Indicator has exhibited a bullish divergence. The breakout of this pattern and the presence of a Bullish Divergence both signal the potential for an upcoming upside movement, targeting area 1. Following the attainment of target 1, we anticipate a possible pullback to the yellow zone before the continuation of its movement towards the second target. Fundamental Drivers Beyond technical factors, oil prices might sustain levels above $80, supported by diminishing oil inventories and supply reductions from the OPEC+ coalition. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will prolong a voluntary oil output reduction of 1 million barrels per day into October. It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached. Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below! Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as a recommendation to take a long or short position on TVC:USOIL ."
TVC:USOILLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
7
Heating oil and gasoline supply remain tightOil demand, driven by China is an area of strength, but a slowing Chinese economy could weaken this. However, OPEC’s resolve to keep markets tight is strong. Petroleum product markets – heating oil and gasoline – are especially tight with inventory significantly below normal and prices have hit ‘golden crosses’ : technical analyst parlance for bullish conditions. Positioning in heating oil futures is a standard deviation above 5-year average after rising by 49% last month1. A combination of rising longs and contracting shorts drove the trend amid a 17% rally in heating oil in the past month1. Heating oil inventory has fallen 15% and inventory is now than a standard deviation below 5-year average2. While not as steep as last year, the 0.8% positive roll yield on heating oil futures marks a break from the pre-2022 historic trend of contango in August3. At 8.6%, the positive front month roll yield on gasoline futures appears larger than seasonally normal (although a positive front month roll is expected at this time of the year)3. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth. With the post-pandemic rebound running out of steam, and as lacklustre economic conditions, tighter efficiency standards and new electric vehicles weigh on use, growth is forecast to slow to 1 mb/d in 2024. Russian oil exports held steady at around 7.3 mb/d in July, as a 200 kb/d decline in crude oil loadings was offset by higher product flows. Crude exports to China and India eased month on month but accounted for 80% of Russian shipments. Global observed oil inventories declined by 17.3 mb in June, led by the OECD. Non-OECD stocks and oil on water were largely unchanged. OECD industry stocks fell by 14.7 mb, in line with the seasonal trend, to 2,787 mb. Industry stocks were 115.4 mb below the five-year average, with product inventories particularly tight. Preliminary data observed by the IEA suggest global inventories drew further in July and August. Refiners are struggling to keep up with demand growth, as the shift to new feedstocks, outages and high temperatures have forced many operators to run at reduced rates. Tight gasoline and diesel markets have pushed margins to six-month highs. Heating oil (Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) prices rose 17% in the past month, reflecting this tightness. OPEC+’s aggressive cuts are continuing to tighten the oil market. Saudi Arabia’s voluntary supply cuts have helped oil curves remain in backwardation. Source: 1 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 15 August 2023 2 change in inventory over the past 3 months, United States Department of Agriculture as of 15 August 2023 3 Calculated as difference between front month and second month futures prices as of 15 August 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
N
by aneekaguptaWTE
USDCAD LONG SETUP BEFORE FOMC + OPECOn USDCAD, we have a bullish setup with the price retracing to the 1.3226 area, touching a minor demand within the main demand zone. I have used this level as a possible entry zone with a target at 1.33. With the upcoming OPEC and FOMC events, the dollar could potentially have a bullish push this morning, considering also the DXI, which appears to have a bullish trend. It would be fantastic if you could share your opinion and give a like to support our work. Greetings and have a good day of trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USDNOK Can See More Weakness As Crude Tryign To FInd A SupportCrude oil is trying to stabilize ahead of the FED today, showing some interesting intraday recovery from around $67.00 per barrel. Can be a small impulse, but I want to see a steady recovery ehre and possibly a broken resistance line to make sure that w-x-y in E of (B) is completed. Also, the global oil supply fell 660k bpd in May on OPEC+ cuts, which can help to stabilize oil price going forward. With higher crude I like NOK. Keep in mind that crude oil and USDNOK, both traded south recently, but crude trying to stabilize now. If it closes higher today, then USDNOK can see much more weakness. Current bears on USDNOK are also acting impulsively so far. GH
by ew-forecast
2
No More Crude Deals!Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been pouring a little too much oil over troubled waters especially as far as the Saudis are concerned. With Moscow pumping cheap crude into the market, downward pressure on the commodity has seen it break and close below a key break-even level for Saudi Arabia. Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman has scheduled a list of 15 upcoming giga-projects that are intended to transform the kingdom’s economy over the next 10 years. Investment is going to run into the billions and the budget requires oil prices to be above $81 per barrel. An $81 hard floor is essential as attracting significant foreign investment for these giga-projects is proving very difficult. Earlier in the year, Saudi Arabia’s attempts to push oil prices higher by cutting back on production were rendered meaningless by Russia flooding the market with cheap oil despite an earlier promise to also hold back on increased production. This is part of a historical and, it seems, ongoing oil production related geopolitical conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia (the Russia-Saudi oil price war). Oil prices have been in a sustained downtrend since the March 2022 peak with crown prince Salman getting a major scare in May this year when WTI and Brent crude hit a low of $63 and $71 respectively. A break and close below those levels would have created a cascade of investors exiting the market. Price however rebounded from those lows to consolidate within a tight range. OPEC+ met over the weekend with Saudi Arabia announcing that it will cut production by 1 million barrels a day in order to help prop up price. However, any idea of a done deal that will provide a clear direction for the near and medium-term price of crude should be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism. The Saudis did force some of the less influential members of OPEC+, such as Nigeria and Angola, to reduce quotas from next year but Russia following suit remains “under review” pending further analysis of current output. That’s code to describe how the Saudis and Russians are still fighting with each other to get what each side needs. The post-COVID pandemic world is a much trickier place for oil men and women to cut deals than before. The process of negotiating deals before the pandemic was positively crude compared to the headache-inducing complexity caused by the asymmetrical and mercurial nature of deals in the new geopolitical landscape. The invasion of Ukraine has weakened a Russian economy that desperately needs to find extra revenue to sustain the war effort whilst the Saudis are trying to diversify their economy away from oil by embarking on a series of hugely ambitious and expensive giga-projects. Those two aims are diametrically opposed as far as the output of crude is concerned. The Saudis on the one hand are trying to convince the Russians to stick to their agreement to cut production whilst at the same time planning to further reduce the price of their Arab light grade for customers in Asia. Saudi Arabia has cut the price of oil it sells to its Asian buyers several times already this year in a bid to try and secure its market share in the Asia region that has now become the largest importer of Russian crude. The Saudis are also in talks with the “BRICS bank” for membership and will need the Russians on side at that table, adding to the frustration of how aggressive they can be in convincing the Russians to cut crude production. We remain long-term bullish on crude with buys from strategic dips being the best play but please be mindful of any potential near-term breaks to the downside. We will be posting levels for intra-day traders in the future. Remember, that when you go to the market, be careful out there.
TVC:USOIL
by BluetonaFX
4
Oil -Rising on potential OPEC cut oil productionWell, the technical analysis seems to indicate that Oil is currently in a very strong overbought area, from which we expect it to rise to at least 82. Especially since interest rates may stop rising in the coming period and be fixed at 5.25 or 5.50 With the decline in oil prices due to the economic slowdown, there is a high probability that OPEC will cut oil production at the next meeting, which will cause prices to rise strongly.
TVC:USOILLong
by m-trad-e
1
SPY OUTLOOK 06/05 - 06/09Last week, the debt ceiling lift was signed into law which saved the US from defaulting. All of our upside targets hit last week, and the market reacted favorably with a green week up +3.2%. With not much on the economic calendar, I doubt we move much this week, but expectations of a soft landing can keep bulls in control. Technical Analysis: This week AMEX:SPY broke out to the upside of the megaphone we were watching since April. We are at a critical point in the market as we tested the top of a macro trendline dating back from September 2022. Although I can see the market moving higher in the short term, I’d expect some corrective action in the coming weeks. Even if we head higher, we will need to build some levels of support and resistance if we do head higher. Bulls will want to hold price above the megaphone breakout. If price can continue above last week’s high 428.74, our next level above is 429.57, with not much resistance until 433. What is more likely this week is some sort of healthy pullback before we head higher. I can see SPY coming down to test the daily gap made on Friday (422.92-423.95). If this doesn’t hold, we have a golden pocket from 420-421 where we can look for buyers to step in. Bears will want to invalidate the golden pocket and control price action under last week’s point of control at 419. Upside Targets: 428.74 → 429.57→ 433.07 → 436.10 → 438.08 Extended: 441.21 Downside Targets: 425.14 → 423.95 → 422.92 → 421.02 → 419.00 Extended: 416.22
AMEX:SPY
by peterjames_6
XOM OUTLOOK 06/05 -06/09After finishing March and April strong and making all time highs at 119.92, NYSE:XOM pulled back in May to a key support level around 102. With $CL_F setting up for a bullish week, and the Saudis plan to cut their OPEC+ oil supply by 1 million barrels per day, we could see gas prices rise and a potential buying opportunity in $XOM. Technical Analysis: NYSE:XOM tested a breakdown of the macro channel we’ve been watching, but was able to reclaim the support during Friday’s session. As long as we respect this channel, I can see us continuing higher. We also have a dirty inverted head and shoulders with the daily 102.33 level as the neckline. Bulls will want to hold above 106.26, reclaim the 200 day moving average and break above the weekly level at 107.90. My lean is bullish, and will look at the 50% short retrace at 110.59 as a potential price target this week. Bears will want to see price action below 102.33. Upside Targets: 106.26 → 107.55 → 107.90 → 109.58 → 109.61 Extended: 110.59 Downside Targets: 105.00 → 103.32 → 102.33 → 101.26 → 99.18 Extended: 97.02
NYSE:XOMLong
by peterjames_6
WTI UpdateOkay, the Saudis did cut. I must confess that I underestimated His Royal Highness's ability to surprise. That leaves us with a possible gap on Monday. Given the market pressures and the fact that the previous cut was ineffective in sustaining the price, the gap is unlikely to be as large as in April. The gap is, most likely, wave 3 of (c) of the first wave up in the leading diagonal. There is still a chance that wave (ii) will close the gap, as shown on the chart. MBS, you did an excellent job. I am not as long as I could have been.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka
3