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Sellside

Probability for 07/01/23As you can see the following: - weekly candle bullish - daily candle bearish - 4H candle - bearish In my probability, I can see two options on Monday (I WON'T BE PLACING TRADES ON MONDAY). One will bounce off (red) and create a high of the day and two (blue) will go lower to take out sellside liquidity creating a low of the day and then will go up to create a high of the day. After Monday I'll see where price action will go and what will most likely stay for the next two days which means I'll be looking for setups on Tue, Wed, and Thu. Please let me know your thoughts.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by TradingtoFreedom22
EURUSD, Bullish ReversalGood morning ladies & gents, After a period of accumulation, it is highly likely that EURUSD will start a bullish cycle up, this analysis is supported by a multitude of reasons. 1) After a period of accumulation, it's often that we see an inducement out of one side. This is the "Manipulation" phase, whereby they move price to simultaneously neutralise buy-side liquidity & induce sell-side liquidity, allowing the market makers to build in heavy long positions. 2) This area is sat below the 61.8% fib rejection we saw last week, meaning where price is at is an area of sell-side liquidity. 3) The Orderflow on the Monthly - Weekly - Daily are all Bullish. 4) Price has pulled back to the last D1 Bullish Orderblock responsible for dynamic PA. 5) Seasonal Tendencies & Commitment of Traders Data report frames the macro-economic outlook on the Fibre, both of which indicates an appreciation in the Fibre in the next few weeks. All of this, leads me to the conclusion that NFP will drive EURUSD up to take out the monthly highs where the next big level of Buy-Side Liquidity Lies. I anticipate it trading up to 1.24000 which is a level where commerce is often conducted. Macro-economic synthesised with Micro-technical levels is what frames high probability setups that we execute on with precision. Let's see how price delivers & let's see how "random" this market really is. Disclaimer: This is not trading advice, this is merely my idea. All speculations can incur losses. Don't invest more than you're willing to lose. You're trading @ your own risk should you act upon this idea. If so, I'd personally employ no more than 3% risk maximum of the total account size.
Long
by Jiraiya_eth
GBPUSD OPEN - 100 PIPS LOWER; UNDERPRICED RISK = SELL PULL BACKSA disappointing open from cable with a bears perspective. Gapping down 100 pips to 1.435 almost immediately puts my sell limit orders (at 146.5) in "unlikely" territory of being hit this week. On friday following the $ EMP report cable managed to rally to 1.458 - i was hopeful it would tick a few more pips upward before the slew of selling started as we move further into FOMC and Brexit event Uncertainty territory. Reason being, i was looking for better/ safer levels to short at - cable at 1.465 is an almost CERTAIN trade (the ones i like) as the next daily support level isnt until 1.443 which means there was over 200 pips of 0 risk equity upside to be collected. Since we are already trading well below last weeks lows at 1.436, we will likely soon test the daily support level at 1.433 then 1.430. TRADING STRATEGY: SELL/ FADE ANY PULL BACKS IN A PYRAMID e.g. 1@1.450, 2@1.456 & 3@1.464! TPSL is discretionary.. i personally have my stops just above 1.48 (on my current shorts at 1.45as I will be holding until the 23/24th of june (to include the FOMC and BREXIT REF volatility) which at somepoint IMO will yield at least TP1.5x the amount of SL = 250/300pips. FOMC hike = 1.38 or 700pips; FOMC Hawkish = 1.41 or 400 pips; BREXIT uncertainty = 1.40-1 or 400-500pips; BREXIT YES = < 1.345. Thus the risks from 1.45 are certainly skewed to the downside for cable (upside for shorts) in my opinion. Above is my strategy for this week, given it is the last realistic week we will be able to add "risk-cheap" shorts to our portfolios (given FOMC is on the 16th and brexit ref on the 23rd). BUT given we have already started the week lower, I think the market has finally begun to price in the cheap risk hence the 100 pips lower - you will see in my previous articles i said to short cable anything below 1.45 - which is now 150pips of upside and looking good for more!
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading