BRIEFING Week #29 : Weekly Signals are In, Waiting for MonthlyHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-20 - PineScript Project FeedbackI've been playing with this little project for about 7 hours now (off and on). Pinescript is fun once you get the hang of the syntax and how it expects objects/booleans for most of the conditionals.
Overall, I think this project is moving along nicely, but I wanted some feedback on the visuals.
I'm trying to create something that will help daytraders see and understand broad trends arising from shorter-term price swings.
I get a lot of questions related to how/when to identify key market price reversals - so I'm trying to develop a way to help traders understand and see where opportunities exist for better trades.
Watch this video and let me know if you see anything I can do to improve the visuals or color controls.
I want this to SHINE so people fall in love with it.
Thank you.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - Building Solutions For Better TradersTo help as many traders as possible, I took on the task of trying to build a Daytrading Pressure monitoring system to identify better trends, pullbacks, and swing trade setups.
This example video was created after only about 5 hours of work on the script (debugging/testing), and I still have about 6+ more days of development before this script may be ready for public use, but...
Look at the results I've been able to achieve so far.
My work trying to recreate my Fibonacci Price Theory concepts is proving very valuable. I've created three unique FPT constructs (Standout, Unique, Ultimate), and I believe teaching this concept will greatly improve trading results for many people.
Next, I will work on my Pressure Indicator (near the bottom). Right now, it only reflects 3-bar rotations in pressure. I want it to be adaptive and dynamic, so I have some work cut out for me over the next 6+ days.
Ultimately, this tool (and others) could help thousands of traders better understand FPT and the scope of price moves at various intervals.
I aim to create a PineScript tool/utility to significantly improve traders' overall results.
I welcome any feedback you may have at this stage of development.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-19 EOD WrapUp - Learning A vs. BWhat an incredible week for all of us! The big price swings early in the week banked some big success with my SPY Cycle Patterns. Today, the bearish exhaustion pattern was much tougher to read/play for some—and that could have been my fault.
I want to review something I try to clarify in my videos - the A (Success) vs. B (Failure) concept.
I learned this from a Prop trader in the North East a long time ago. He called it "Failure To Succeed vs. Failure To Fail". It is much easier to call it Success or Failure (IMO).
My research/content is based on a simple A vs B structure.
Either my expectations will be correct (A), or they will fail (B).
I want you to be able to make skilled decisions based on the content, pattern, directions, and expectations I deliver in my videos.
As I tell many clients, "I do the research - you make the decisions."
This video will highlight WHY I never took a trade today. My expectations continued to FAIL all day long. Sometimes that happens.
There are more trading opportunities next week - right? No worries.
If you have time, please review some of my recent videos to identify the A vs B content/structures I present. I want all of you to gain success using my tools/research. Part of that is learning how I view the markets/trends.
The A vs. B structure is very important to learn - because all of my research is based on this simple technique (and a lot of Fibonacci Price Theory, which is also included in this video).
Stay safe this weekend.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-19 - Bearish Exhaustion??Where's the Bearish Price Exhaustion pattern I predicted? Why is price waffling downward? I thought we would see a bigger upward price reversion setup.
Yea - I know. I thought we would see a bigger upward price reversion in early trading, too.
This is how things go with the markets. You can't force them to do anything. You have to be prepared to make the best of whatever the situation is right now.
I was asked recently if I thought buying a few Call options near today's lows was a good idea (related to next week's potential rally setups). Although I won't tell anyone what to do with their trading account - statistically, starting a small "anchor position" relative to price expectations 5 to 15+ days out is not a bad idea.
I do that with my swing trades often. If I think something is going to move, but I don't have confirmation of any future price moves on my charts, I may start by buying 5~10 shares as an "Anchor Position" to remind me to keep an eye on it in the future.
I created this video to help you understand what I'm thinking and why I'm not too excited about what I see in the SPY.
Buckle up. Things may get a little crazy later today with a squeeze.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-19 : Bearish Exhaustion (Bullish)Good morning,
Today's pattern is a Bearish Exhaustion in Trend mode.
This pattern suggests the selling pressure is abating/stalling and price may attempt to revert back up to the $560-561 level over the next few trading days.
I believe price is entering a new FLAGGING formation that will resolve sometime near July 24-25 (as my SPY Cycle Patterns have predicted for over 3+ weeks now).
I continue to receive many comments from readers, and I appreciate all the love and support you've shown me.
Now, as we move into this flagging formation, we will see how the SPY Cycle Patterns can help us scale back out allocation levels (trade sizes) while we wait for the next big trending phase to start.
Remember, the SPY/QQQ will likely continue to consolidate into a tighter FLAG type of formation over the next 3+ days before we start to see a moderate bullish price breakout near July 23-24-25.
I hope you guys are enjoying all of these videos. It has been a lot of fun creating them for you. The feedback I've received has been incredible.
Happy Friday. Get Some today.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 7-18 - Mjr. CRUSH Counter Trend DayGood morning everyone,
Today's big Major CRUSH pattern in a counter-trend mode should be very exciting.
I'm expecting the price to attempt to rally upward to fill yesterday's big opening price gap. But stay cautious of potential volatility related to today's open.
Yesterday's big price rotation (and GAP) showed us that Volatility has been here all the time—maybe just slightly muted. It is not uncommon for prices to move into periods of lower or higher volatility throughout the year.
I believe today's Major CRUSH pattern will resolve to the upside (at least attempting to fill yesterday's big GAP). But I urge my followers to be very cautious of the first 2~3 hours of trading today as we may see an initial move to the downside - shaking out some longs and attempting a bit of a carryover of yesterday's selling pressure.
So, be aware that the volatility and the large range price rotation we are seeing with this exhaustion top/peak/rotation, in combination with today's Major CRUSH pattern, will likely setup the FLAG formation highs/lows I've been suggesting. From here, we should move into 2~4 days of tight price rotation before we reach the FLAG APEX.
Again, how do I know this is going to happen?
I use my SPY Cycle Patterns to attempt to identify the most realistic future price expectations and estimate where I believe price will be as it cycles through my patterns.
As you can see, even though I may be "off" a bit regarding price levels, my estimates are generally very close to what price will actually attempt to do in the future.
So, today should be a fairly volatile upward price move, setting up the upper range of the pending FLAG pattern. Then, we'll slide into the consolidated FLAG formation until Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-17 - SPY Looking For SupportPlease watch this video as we see the markets move into a Counter-trend Major CRUSH tomorrow.
We may see a very large reversion in price (upward) tomorrow. I'm looking for price to reject recent lows and move higher. Then, I'm expecting price to reject recent highs (from 7-16) and move downward tomorrow.
After that big rotation, I believe the price will move into a downward consolidation phase, attempting to build a FLAG before starting a big upward move near July 22~24.
Please know the strong potential for huge price swings over 24 to 48 hours. Then, we move into a more consolidated/contracted price channel (FLAGGING).
I'll post more later. Watch for price to build support and attempt to move higher into the close.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-17 Opening Price Update - BreakdownI created this short video to help you understand we are still cautious of a continued breakdown in price - retesting deeper support.
The breakdown pattern I suggested would happen based on my SPY Cycle Patterns played out perfectly this morning.
I expect a type of "V" shaped bottom/base to be set up, but I believe the SPY/QQQ may continue to push downward - attempting to WASH OUT longs and stress the markets before rolling higher into the close today and going much higher tomorrow.
Please pay attention to my research.
I have to say, the past few weeks of sharing my SPY Cycle Patterns on TV and trying to prove the validity of my technology have been very exciting. There is nothing like putting your neck on the chopping block by making bold predictions for price and watching to see what happens.
I was either going to find my patterns work - or find out they don't work.
Pay attention to this video because we may have more downward price trending before we find a bottom.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 7-17 - Possible Breakdown PatternI'm going to keep this short and simple this morning. Yesterday, I shared about 3~4 videos related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how the markets were setting up for this Possible Breakdown (or as I called it, the Exhaustion Breakdown) pattern.
I even took some extra time to share a late video last night trying to prepare traders for what is/was about to unfold related to today's Possible Breakdown and tomorrow's Counter-Trend Major CRUSH pattern. You can watch that video yourselves to learn what I expect.
After rolling out of bed at 3:50 this morning (California time) and taking a look at my charts, all I can say is WOW! Nailed it!
I'm continually amazed at the accuracy and capability of my SPY Cycle Patterns as well as their ability to see into the future. I don't know of any other technology that is capable of doing what my SPY Cycle Patterns are doing. And I don't believe anyone has been able to crack the code (the secrets of the markets) like I have been able to do.
Now, these patterns are not always 100% accurate. I've warned everyone in the past (and now). There will be periods where they don't align with price very well. That happens.
Watch today's video while I sit back and watch my Puts print all morning.
What a great day.
I may try to put on some Calls later today - but at this point, I'm calling this a BIG WIN.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Cycle Pattern Update - Balancing Expectations & RisksAs part of my Plan Your Trade video series, I wanted to share some additional information on how I balance my expectations for price swings/moves with what's changing in the current market environment.
Initially, I draw my expectations based on what I see on the chart and how I interpret the SPY Cycle Patterns. From there, I watch the custom index charts I use to measure the underlying market strengths/weaknesses (behind the scenes).
Over the past 3+ days, I've been highlighting the huge moves in RSP and IYT. Traders need to understand that this strong bullish move suggests that the US market is actively relating to the end of 2024 and beyond.
However, the Exhaustion Breakdown pattern tomorrow (July 17) is very likely to represent a downward price move many traders have already positioned for. Although I expect the downward price move to stay under 2.0-2.25% from today's close, it will still be strong enough to catch some attention.
Please watch this video and pay attention to the first 10 minutes and the last 3 minutes. I want to know what all of you think of my SPY Cycle Patterns and if these videos are helping you out.
I believe the next 5+ years will be the biggest opportunity of our lives regarding how the US and global markets trend. In my attempt to help as many traders as I can, I need to hear from you. Are these videos helping you or confusing you? What could I do to improve them?
Get ready for tomorrow, and remember the next big opportunity starts on July 22 (or so).
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-15 Mid-Day Update - Selling PressureGood afternoon everyone,
As I created this video, the SPY was stalling above $562, with lagging bullish price momentum.
In this video, I explain why the SPY & QQQ are not selling downward very hard (yet). I also explain why I believe the downward price trend (consolidation/correction) I believe will happen over the next 4+ trading days will only be a -0.75% to -2.0% downward price swing.
My analysis of how price will move relative to my SPY Cycle Patterns involves many factors. I rely on more than just the SPY Cycle Patterns; my research includes dozens of other metrics and custom indexes.
This video shows how strongly IYT and RSP are rallying right now. If you are going to daytrade any of the indexes, you need to pay attention to those symbols.
If IYT (the Transportation Index) is rallying while RSP (the Equal-weight S&P500 ETF) is rallying - guess what? You see forward solid expectations of a broad-sector US stock market rally. Yes, maybe 30 to 90+ days in the future, you may see ignored and undervalued symbols rally more than 30% because of what we see right now.
THAT is why I'm trying to share my research.
I want to help you become a better, more skilled trader. That includes learning to use technical analysis more efficiently and keeping track of many underlying key metrics to help balance your expectations.
Why would anyone want to swing hard for short trades when the IYT, RSP, and dozens of other metrics say, "the US stock market is REFLATING into a broad-sector rally phase"?
That is the question you need to ask yourself... Are you getting the best research/analysis to help you build skills you can keep for the rest of your life?
Follow my research. Take a minute to go back and watch some of my recent videos.
If you want to learn how I can predict market trends 5 to 10+ days in advance, then all you have to do is pay attention to what I show you. I read the charts/data - and then formulate my expectations based on what my SPY Cycle Patterns show me. If something changes, I may adjust my expectations a bit. But, generally, my expectations don't change very much.
Let's get started and learn how to distinguish these markets. Watch this video and learn. Watch my other videos and learn.
The next 5+ years will be the greatest opportunity of your life. Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-16 - Price Starting To FLAG OUTGood morning everyone,
Today's video should be an important warning to prepare for prices to move into a tight, consolidated, FLAGGING type of trend.
Remember, you'll hear me say price either FLAGS or TRENDS—that's it. If you understand these FLAGS are price constructs that present mechanical price structures, we can then use them to analyze future price structures. It all becomes clear that price moves in logical structures related to energy, vibration, amplitude, frequency, and cycles.
Without getting too deep into the abstract of price theory, let's focus on where to find opportunities...
Watch this video. Over the next 5+ trading days, you will find 35 very clear price swings, which I believe will provide ample opportunity for skilled traders. Beyond those 35 bigger swings, you should get ready to sit and wait (in CASH) for the bigger opportunities to set up between July 22 and 25 (for a rally to start).
Smart traders must understand you can't force the markets to move as you want. You must sit back and wait for the right opportunities for your trades (or you'll get chopped to pieces).
In this video, I've clearly laid out what I expect to see happen for the SPY/QQQ over the next 10+ days. There are still opportunities for skilled daytraders. My only warning is to START SMALL and build positions within your risk tolerance levels.
Don't swing for the fences in this market for the next 5+ days. Stay safe.
There will be more significant price swings starting on the 24th or 25th of July.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPQ/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7/15 - Exhaustion Rally PatternGood morning everyone,
This new Plan Your Trade video will illustrate why I believe the SPY may target 568~570+ highs over the next two days before rolling downward into a moderate downward/consolidation phase.
If you've been following my videos/research, you already know I believe the markets are setting up for another LEG HIGHER. But, first they need to roll into a PAUSE phase over the next 5+ days, then move higher on new momentum.
Watch today's video to learn why my SPY Cycle Patterns are so incredible and help traders plan/prepare for big market moves.
Here we go...
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 14th —>July 19th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/14/2024)
**SPX**- As we predicted last week, market was bullish, We also saw lower than expect CPI and PPI data which pushed the chance of a rate cut to 88% in September.
Due to the chance of rate cut actually happening, we are seeing rotation into small cap stocks and industrials.
Next resistance $5626 and $5655
Next support $5490 and 5385
Weekly Sentiment = Slightly Bearish
**Chart Analysis:**
()
**Dollar Index:**
DXY- As rate cut chances increase and JPY FX started to increase, we are starting to see weakness in the dollar.
Next resistance $105
Support $104
Sentiment = Oversold
**Put to call Ratio: 1.56 —> 1.31
Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024**
**Fear & Greed Index: 54—>56**
BRIEFING Week #28 : Is this the real Signal this time ?!Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Bitcoin Is Trading At The Support As Stocks PullsbackHey traders
I this video I will take look at NVIDIA which I think it can be moving into a correction and can possibly be headed down for deeper prices. So if today major stocks indicies will have second red day in a row, then possibly next week there can be more risk-off. In such case I think its better to wait on any long ideas on cryptos (short-term), and wait on much better timing for potential long entires, which can be maybe after summer, or during elections when normal markets tend to be in bull run. Additionally, any rate cut later this year can be alos supportive for stocks and other assets.
When I look at bitcoin, I think that 50k is very good potential support; if it gets there.
Have a nice weekend.
Grega
BRIEFING Week #27: Further Pulling the ElasticHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
BRIEFING Week #26 : Binary Mode Still Active...Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Lean and Prep for WEEK 7.1.24I am a discretionary trader. This means there are some weeks in the year when I wait and watch what’s going on. From here, there are 3 potentials -
1-We keep ranging here and the stocks keep choppy. In this case, it is waste of premiums.
2-We drop. In this case it is better to wait for lower levels to find attractive setups.
3-We rally. If this happens, I am pretty sure something nice and attractive will show up on my radar which I will share.
Stay Frosty!
SPX500 is oversold on the hourly chartThe SPX500's daily chart is still trading in a bullish zone. The hourly chart has pulled back to oversold territory suggesting a bullish snap-back may be due.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
S&P500 - Where will we go next?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the S&P500 .
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
Fore more than a decade, the S&P500 has been trading in a pretty clean rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2022, which was followed by bullish confirmation and a rally of +45% in 1.5 years. At the moment the S&P500 is neither retesting support nor resistance and the path of least resistance is simply higher.
--------
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)