hermes_trisme

20:04

hermes_trisme

In this video I explain how to use RSI (Relative Strength Index) to make trading decisions. You'll learn how to properly use RSI oversold condition, combining low timeframe price action signals with high level context analysis. Besides of explaining three different strategies (the bad, the good and even better) I'll do back-testing on historical data to...

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Last week, using oversold bounce, buyers attempted to regain control over the price. Their effort was somewhat successful, as they managed to establish both a higher low and a higher high on the daily chart. However, they failed to set a weekly low, which was a challenging task given the magnitude of the previous week's range. This indicates that bears still...

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Last week, sellers firmly controlled the market. Buyers attempted to defend March's low, but the bears left them no chance. Prices consistently declined for six consecutive days, with the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) appearing even more bearish. We are now approaching a critical juncture, which presents a significant opportunity for buyers to take a stand....

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At the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers. It is also notable that if we look at the futures...

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Bullish Context: Monthly uptrend, weekly uptrend Price Position: Near last month low Pattern: price has shaped daily uptrend (higher low and higher high); weekly higher low is set This is an opportunity for LONG play with profit target near previous month high. In order for this setup to work price must first break through synthetic diagonal resistance; in...

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Bullish context: weekly uptrend Price position: near last weekly trend low Pattern: four consecutive red days with little upthrust (progression of lows) It looks like previous weekly consolidation area is providing support, and bears are too exhausted to break through it now. This provides an opportunity for a long play. An example of possible trade is shown...

hermes_trisme Updated 

Bulls defended the weekly low and made a convincing breakout yesterday. This is a powerful statement, although buyers have not yet proven their control. To do that, they must first establish a weekly higher low, which is likely to happen next week (of course, we need to monitor how things develop). This presents a great opportunity for a long play, but buyers...

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Ethereum is trying to set weekly higher low (we're still in a weekly uptrend, setting weekly higher low is strong signal of trend continuation). It failed one time (last week of March) but now it has better chance of accomplishing it. While it opens opportunity for a LONG play we should recognize that there was quite aggressive selling in the middle of March....

hermes_trisme Updated 

Last week was marked by the aggressiveness of sellers and the resilience of buyers. On Monday Buyers were ideally positioned for another break out but they didn’t have enough steam to accomplish it. Sellers, long awaiting their opportunity, pushed the price down, breaking the weekly support. However, they couldn’t develop this into something more significant, as...

hermes_trisme Updated 

Last week began with bearish consolidation, which was short-lived. The bulls quickly regained control, established a daily higher low, and broke through the previous week's resistance at 524.1 . Although the breakout was not very strong, it was still meaningful. The March close was very strong, posting a +3% gain, and both weekly and daily charts are indicating...

hermes_trisme

BTC has set weekly lower high, which technically signals possible weekly trend reversal. A few things to consider though: 1. The week has not closed yet. While the probability of outside weekly bar is low, it is not impossible 2. Downtrend is far from being confirmed. Bears must break through 60,700 and then 59,500 to launch monthly consolidation. So far price...

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All major sectors are strong, confirming SPX strength. There are minor signs of weakness on some charts but nothing serious yet.

hermes_trisme Updated 

AMEX:XLV has formed a five-week equilibrium. The price contraction is already quite tight, indicating that this equilibrium could break very soon. The context is highly bullish: the XLV price is on a weekly uptrend, and the broader market is also showing strong performance. The odds are in favor of an upside breakout. On the chart, there is an example of a...

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ZS is trying to reverse downtrend. Bearish upthrust has been weakening over the last two weeks and price has already set daily higher low on the pre-market. For reversal to happen bulls must protect 192.5 and build value above 196. If the reversal happens it will probably not to last long as we're in a monthly consolidation. But it still can provide some nice...

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hermes_trisme Updated 

At the start of last week, things didn’t look great for the bulls. There were several signs of weakness that could have easily led to a daily trend reversal. However, that didn’t materialize. Firstly, on Monday, buyers were able to set a daily higher low. Then, on Wednesday, they positioned the price very close to the previous two weeks' high. Finally, with the...

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Last week began with a display of strong conviction from buyers, propelling price upwards towards the previous high (516.5). They managed to surpass it by a small margin, establishing a new historical high at 517.1. Unfortunately, bulls were unable to sustain momentum and build a new value zone, allowing bears to regain control and push price back towards the...

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NASDAQ:ZS has been very "bearish" for almost month but we're still in a monthly uptrend. At the same time there are bearish exhaustion signs: weekly bearish upthrust has diminished, and value area has been overlapping for the last three days. This creates opportunity to capture possible short-squeeze. It is a high risk trade given the context but upside can be...

hermes_trisme Updated 

NASDAQ:QQQ has shaped Head-and-Shoulders formation on the daily chart. Daily downtrend confirmed, weekly consolidation has started. Please note that broad SP500 market is still technically in an uptrend, meaning that buyers are still strong. So if you plan entering SHORT on QQQ I would wait for a pullback to increase risk-reward. An example of possible trade is...