SPY- Bearish- UpdatePosting another quick update here on the SPY as a lot has transpired in financial markets over the past few months, yet buyer and selling continue to dictate the price action in my opinion. On the 4-hour timeframe, the SPY is oversold and has formed a bullish ABCD Elliot wave, while also holding a falling wedge within a bearish megaphone.
On the daily timeframe, the SPY has formed a bearish head and shoulders (Pictured Below) and has broken below its 200-day SMA. The weekly timeframe depicts two bearish megaphones as well, with the SPY having held within the larger of the two since November of 2021. Just some support and resistance levels to keep an eye on in the interim, along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones, staying hedged, and staying cash.
--Previous Charts Attached In Description --
SPY Daily Timeframe
SPY - Daily - Bearish
- Head and Shoulders (Bearish)
- Broke Below the 200-day SMA
- Sitting on the Covid-19 Trendline Support
SPY 4-HOUR Timeframe
- Oversold on the RSI
- Bullish ABCD Harmonic Pattern
- Falling Wedge Within a Bearish Megaphone
- Sitting on the Covid-19 Trendline Support
--Previously Charted--
Support_and_resistance
What is Support & Resistance (S&R)? What Types of S&R?Support & Resistance (S&R) is one of the basic topics that we need to know in trading, whether trading forex, shares or cryptocurrency.
Support & Resistance can show the upper and lower limits of price movement in a certain time.
*) Resistance is the upper limit to limit prices from rising further.
*) Support is the lower limit to limit prices from falling further.
The market moves because of differences in demand and supply.
When demand is greater the price will rise, if the supply is greater the price will move down.
Types of Support & Resistance:
1. Classic S&R
The way to determine S&R in Classic S&R is using previous swing high and swing low as referece (picture no.1)
The advantage of using this method is we can know previous S&R and we can use that as our reference to determine target profit, or stop loss area.
The weakness of using classic S&R is when the price break S&R we don’t know the next S/R
2. Dynamic S&R
The way to determine Dynamic S&R is using moving average. We determine high point & low point when price touch moving average diagonal line. (picture no.2)
4. Harmonic S&R
Harmonic S&R Is useful to determine S&R when price in all time high.
The weakness of Classic S&R is when the price break S&R we don’t know the next S&R, because of that we use Harmonic S&R to analyze the next target profit or loss area.
We use Fibonacci methode (picture no.3) to determine S&R
How we know this is a strong S/R or not?
That is a strong S/R when the price touch the S/R area and the price have a strong movement.
Function of Support & Resistance
Support & Resistance makes us know if this area can be a price target area, so we understand if the price doesn’t always go up or down, so we must to take profit and we have to put a stop loss.
In stock market activity, support & resistance prices indicate certain psychological levels, like:
*) Support is the level where people buy shares at the lowest price and make a profit when the price rises.
*) Resistance is the level where people have bought shares at the highest price and experienced losses because the price fell.
That activity becomes a repeating pattern.
People tend to buy at the support price because they know the price will rise and when the price is almost or already in the resistance area they will sell.
In the Forex market, we can have 2 positions in the same time,
So when the price is at the support we can make a purchase, and when the price is at resistance we can sell the previous position and in the resistance area we can also look for a selling position with a profit target in the previous support area and a stop loss area above the resistance area, because if price breaks through the resistance, price will continue to rise and create a new resistance.
Notes:
1. The source of this writing comes from several ideas that I have read, heard, or experienced personally. So if those of you reading this post & feel this is your idea, Please allow me to share again, because maybe I also learn from you.
2. The topic of Fibonacci and Moving Average will be discussed at another time
Thank You.
28 Sep 2023
SPY- Bearish- UpdateHas been a while since I've posted an update on the SPY as a lot has transpired in financial markets over the past few weeks, and months. The SPY has been trading significantly under its average daily volume, which has primarily been the driving force behind the momentum in my opinion. On the other hand, the SPY is holding a nice symmetrical triangle on the weekly timeframe. Nonetheless, buyers and sellers continue to battle, however, on the daily timeframe the SPY is overbought on the RSI, and two Bearish Megaphones are currently still playing out. The SPY is yet again, at a make-or-break spot in my opinion. If we see another leg down, we could see a re-test of the COVID-19 trendline support. As I've said before and will happily say again, where I stand, we're in unchartered territory - Just some support and resistance levels to keep an eye on in the interim, along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones, staying hedged. --Previous Charts Attached In Description --
Weekly Timeframe
Daily Timeframe
Covid-19 Trendline Support
XAUUSD WEEKLY UPDATEHI
fundamental still same
Following the breakout of weekly support at 1893.070, the price rallied and tested daily resistance, which it failed to break for three days.
So, this week, I'd like to see if the price can break through the daily resistance to form a new resistance level and decline toward US CPI data and the FOMC meeting.
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills**
Thanks a lot for your support
USOIL WEEKLY TRADE IDEAhi all
Since Saudi Arabian oil output was expected to be reduced on August 28, the price of US oil has been rising steadily for four days.
Not only will the US economy be impacted by this oil decrease, but also the primary currency. The CPI is approaching, and the FED announced a raise 0.25 bps at its meeting in September.
So, from a technical standpoint, I expect a pullback around 38 - 50 fibo retracement before continuing long oil until cpi and fomc.
Let me know what you think In the comments!
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills**
Thanks a lot for your support
GBP-USD LONGWith the price being in the range of local support and strong main support, the price is expected to increase by at least 0.5 fibo.
According to the Today's Unemployment Claims news, it can be entered in two steps at the prices of 1.24590 and 1.24323 .
In the final part of the trend, we see buyers gaining strength.
*** Best Of Luck ***
GBPUSD WEEKLY TRADE IDEAHi all
Fundamental read oil analysis
After breaking through level 1.2590, the GBP/USD pair pulled back at level 1.27462 before continuing to slide and finishing the week at level 1.25773.
The price testing the next support level at level 1.24868 fibo extension daily, is what I'm anticipating this week.
Let me know what you think In the comments!
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills**
Thanks a lot for your support
USDX WEEKLY TRADE IDEAHi all
Last week, the price recovered from the previous resistance level to settle at 104.216. So I'm expecting USDX to test the next resistance level next week. If the next resistance fails to break through, the price may go back to the previous support level or LOWER
Let me know what you think In the comments!
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills**
Thanks a lot for your support
EURUSD UPDATEhi
HIGH RISK and possibility an unsuccessful setup
expecting double bottom & FOMC long EURUSD
waiting for a rejection at 38% 50% fibo retracement
RSI below 50
Previous buy entry Partial close and BE+1
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills**
Thanks a lot for your support
XAUUSD UPDATEHi all
Gold has risen to a high of 2067 and has broken through weekly resistance to set a new low of 1982.9 before retracing 50% of the previous week's gains. As a result, last week closed at 1885.5 and broke previous low resistance at 1892.9.
This week, I'll be watching for price activity and rejection at 50% or 61.8% before choosing whether to enter the market.
Let me know what you think In the comments!
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills**
Thanks a lot for your support
EURUSD UPDATEHi all
The eurusd broke the weekly support last week, and I'm expecting a 50% or 61.8% retracement.
BUT
Since the daily timeframe likewise had a 50% retracement from the LH to LL, I monitor any potential rejection on the 38.2% weekly fibo.
Let me know what you think In the comments!
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills**
Thanks a lot for your support
USDJPY Long IdeaFor now seems like UsdJpy is going to go up. On daily having a strong move up and broke the resistence making a BOS. Going lower on 4H and see that uptrend is here too. Same on 15M too.
As long the price don't go below:
-145:843 (last low) on 15M
-145.10 on 1H
- 141.513 on 4H
The up trend is likely to happen.
If we see those supports broken (specially 4H one) then we can look for a sell trade to Daily support (137).
What do you think?
SPY- Bearish- UpdatePosting a quick update here on the SPY as a lot has transpired in financial markets over the past few months. The SPY has been driven by buyer volume and momentum. Prime examples include but aren't limited to, NVDA-reported earnings, following the existing hype surrounding the AI Sector, which for lack of better words, has created a bubble in itself by only furthering the existing momentum. Simultaneously, while 5 stocks carry the S&P, smaller-cap names have been trading sideways or have been getting crushed amid all of the intraday volatility, creating the market that we're currently in; over-extended, with no fundamental rationale to support it considering the state of the economy. Where I stand, we're in unchartered territory. Interest rates already being very high, the 30-year hitting 7% last week, a strong job market, and the NAIRU remaining above 4% along with the NROU at 4.22% and the NAIRU being.
SPY-Weekly
On a technical note, pictured on the chart are two massive bearish megaphones, one drawn in red, and the other blue. The RSI on the SPY is bordering on overbought territory, the VIXY is looking very bullish, holding a large falling wedge, with momentum increasing as the Heiken Ashi Candles indicate. With the USD sliding and geo-political turmoil rising, the markets are in unchartered territory. Treading lightly here, again, some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the interim along with key support and resistance levels in white, bearish short-term & eyeing long-term holds to scale into.
VIXY - Daily
--Previous Charts Attached Below--
EURJPY WEEKLY TRADE 24/2 TO 3/3hi all
Weekly summaries:
Before breaking through the previous high, daily trading had been in a consolidation phase from the previous high at 142.939 to a lower level at 137.385 for 9 weeks.
So, unless the price breaks present support at 139.547, a pullback would be a decent opportunity to stay long.
In the elliott wave chart,
I think the price is in wave 4 after an extended wave 1 and is about to complete wave 5 unless it breaks through the level of149.787, then I'm expecting wave 3 to end at a level between 158 and 160.
Let me know what you think In the comments!
My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading skills.
Thanks a lot for your support.