3 techniques that will take your trading to the next levelHello traders,
In this post I will briefly overview three important techniques in psychology of trading:
- IMMERSION
- EMOTIONAL REPROGRAMMING
-ATTITUDE OF GRATITUDE
Consider these three point, practice them every day. You don't have to spend plenty of time on these - at least half hour per day. Your psychological aspect and overall understanding psychological level of trading will shift and you will become better.
Remember, consistency is they key no matter what.
Good luck.
Trading Psychology
Is there stop loss hunting in trading ? How to deal with it ?Hello everyone:
Today I want to discuss a common discussion about new and experienced traders.
“Is there stop loss hunting in trading?”
Many wonder, since they can all recall the moment where price just hits their SL on a trade, and then the market quickly turns around towards their desired profit direction.
I want to dig deeper into this and explain it with different viewpoints, from a technical and psychological view.
The vision I am trying to provide is that, thinking about is there stop loss from the brokers won't help you to get better in trading.
It's a mindset thing we need to understand. For example, whether there is or isn't a stop loss hunting, it's nothing you or I can change or control. It is what it is.
However, if you understand this, then it's about adjusting your plan, strategies and trading style to these types of volatility moves and come up with the correct mindset to work around it.
Technical part:
More often, people set their SL and see their trades get taken out just a few pips above before reversing the opposite way.
Dig deeper into this. Is it a fake breakout, is it just being impatient and jumping the gun?
Is there LTF continuation/reversal correction that gives you bias to enter a long/short ?
Is your analysis aligned with the higher time frames ?
Many factors on why a trade is at a loss, no need to jump right into a conclusion that it's the broker who is stop hunting you.
This is why we always look for confirmation and confluence when we enter trades.
Just because the price breaks the support and resistance line people often use, it's not an automatic buy or sell.
Same goes with trend lines and other indicators people use.
We need to confirm it with price action. After an impulse phrase, was there a continuation correction phrase? If not, then it doesn't justify a buy entry.
This is also why we backtest so we see these types of price action often, and acknowledge what we need to do in order to work our ways around it.
Psychological part:
When traders take a loss in this way, hitting the SL and reverse, this creates a negative emotion in them.
They often get frustrated and upset, hence in human nature, we tend to blame others.
But take a step back and understand this:
The market can do whatever it wants to do.
Most beginner and newcomer traders think the market MUST follow their strategies and style. If it doesn't, then something is wrong with the market, the brokers, their mentor/coach, their strategies...etc.
This negative mindset needs to change.
First of all no strategies and style will promise you 100% strike rate and profit.
Any strategies you take will incur a loss, it's how you deal and manage it that will show you as a consistent or inconsistent trader.
Second, if you have experienced several losses due to the “Stop hunt” in your own mind, then instead of blaming the brokers or the markets, start looking into your trading plan and management.
Are you experiencing FOMO ? Are you over leverage trading, and revenge trading ? Are you taking into consideration your risk management ? Entry, SL/TP, how much to risk ? Is it consistent with your plan ?
These are the things you can control, rather than external factors which you can not. Adjust yourself.
Third, remove your negative emotion from your losses. Take it as a learning curve and experiences earned.
Then the next time you enter a trade, you will remember the lessons that were taught to you by the market.
This is why we journal our trades so we can look back at them and understand what we did.
I hope these few pointers will help some of you to get back on the positive direction of trading.
No need to think and get upset if there is a stop hunting of your trades. Instead, use that towards your advantages.
If you consistently see a false breakout and reverse, then come up with a strategy and plan to capture that reversal move.
No need to blame the market or the broker, that is something you can not control. Jumping brokers to brothers simply won't help you to eliminate that psychological mindset of a stop hunting.
I will put below several other educational videos on the topic we discussed today.
As always, any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :)
Trading Plan:
Risk Management:
Trading Psychology:
FOMO:
Revenge Trading:
Over Leverage:
How Much Should You Deposit / Invest?Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and today I am going to answer a question that I get asked a lot.
Question: How Much Should I Deposit / Invest?
The answer to that question is very subjective. Some say that "a minimum balance of 10 000$ is required", some others say "start small and then deposit more on the go".
In my opinion, to know how much to invest, you have to start the other way around.
How much risk per trade do you feel most comfortable with? Is it 20$? 50$ or 100$...
Those who know me, know that I enter with a fixed risk per trade and always target double.
For some of you, 20$ is nothing, and the 40$ reward isn’t worth it.
While for others 20$ may be too much, and thus can’t handle the loss.
Find that 1% risk per trade that suits you best.
Your 1% risk should not be too much for you, so you won’t get emotional.
In parallel, it shouldn't be too small, as then you won't take your trading seriously.
Find that 1%, then make it x100, that’s how much should deposit.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Why so many Trader Fail!Chart patterns in trading
The key is to spend time learning the basic rules so you can use these methods most effectively with your trading strategy. See our stock chart patterns guide for a comprehensive overview of the 11 most important chart patterns you may come across.
While the idea of trading patterns may seem strange, it’s based on carefully tested methods which underline their usefulness to traders. Importantly, patterns are factors to consider when calculating where to enter, set stop-loss orders, and where to set your profit targets.
Beginner’s Guide for Trading USDJPY
Recognize how price movements can develop into price patterns
Manage risk with stop losses and set profit targets
Types of trading patterns
While this may not inspire confidence at the outset, these are formations that arise and track the changes in support and resistance. There are also more complex trading patterns such as head and shoulders, cup and handle and double tops/bottoms.
Once you have learned these skills, you will be able to apply them in any financial market that you choose, from shares to indices and forex. Pattern recognition can form the basis of trading strategies for day traders, swing traders and longer-term position traders alike and can be applied to anything from five-minute to weekly charts.
Rectangles and, in particular, triangles, have a wide number of varieties that can be used. In essence, all price patterns are looking at the interaction of supply and demand over time and establishing sensible ways in which to react when these trading patterns form. This means you will know how you to react in terms of risk management and closing out.
Typically, you would look for volume levels to decline over the time that the pattern forms.
Candlestick Trading | The Heart of Forex
If volume isn’t declining, this doesn’t necessarily mean that there is a problem with the pattern; however, something you should be on the lookout for is a volume spike when the breakout occurs. This tends to have a beneficial effect on the overall strength of the pattern from then on.
Another effect that can be greatly beneficial to look out for when breakouts occur is a gap in the price. This shows a surge in demand for the instrument surge in supply if it’s a short trade which adds a great deal of price confirmation for the trader.
Learn Online Forex Trading
The previous chart demonstrated an example of an ascending triangle with an upward breakout. As there is no directional bias as to which way patterns are going to break out, we also need to look at an example of what a downward break on an ascending triangle looks like.
Manipulation Scenario :
1. Support was tested several times and finally (looks) a breakdown. Maybe some traders will sell on break support.
And put SL a little above the candle that breaks the support. But the price made a pinbar / hammer, went back up and touched SL.
2. After the SL is touched, the price finally breaks the trendline and closes above it.
Traders will think this is a false break with the trendline breakout confirmation and become a best time to buy with SL just below the previous low. However, prices fell back and touched SL for the second time.
3. After the SL has been touched, the price create a pinbar which is an indication of buyer's pressure.
Traders might think not to be fooled once again and think that the support is really broken and decide to sell in the SBR area with SL above the previous high. But again, the price was not friendly and touched SL once again.
4. The price finally made an upside impulse and formed a bullish pennant which became a continuation pattern.
With this pattern the trader should take a long position. However, due to doubt and don't want to become a victim of SL for another time, trader decided not to open a position. And the result is price actually goes up without being able to get some profit.
After being hit by SL several times it does disturb our emotions as traders, but if we have calculated each risk of SL before jump into trade and put SL which suitable with our risk tolerance, it shouldn't be a problem.
JUST ENJOY THIS PROCESS
Risk Management: How to set a Take Profit (TP) for your trades Hello everyone:
Today let's dig into an important topic of setting a Take Profit (TP).
While many traders will often have different strategies and methods on a TP, let's take a look on my approach and style on this.
ITs important to understand there is no right or wrong when it comes to setting a TP.
ITs what you have in your plan and what makes sense to you as a trader. It should align with your strategies and trading style also.
Some may take profit quicker and move on, while others hold for longer term. Understand that both methods can have drawbacks, it's what trading is, double edge.
So, make sure we follow our plan and executive accordingly to our management. Otherwise we are just making emotional decisions again.
Let's look at a few scenarios on how I would set a TP.
Directly tie in TP is a SL. I usually will only enter a trade if I have 3:1 RR.
Meaning risking 1% to gain 3% or more. Therefore my TP will almost always be 3 times of initial SL amount or room.
Few TP scenarios:
-Beginning of the the previous correctional structure
-Double Bottoms/swings low area, watch for LTF reversal price action and correction
When price breaks ATH, monitor the price action on the LTF for bearish reversal.
I would want to see a trend change, rather than a pullback.
Few things to consider:
-Understand you will never enter at the lowest point, and exit at the highest point
Make sure you have a plan before so you will not get into an emotional decision.
Always know what you plan to do before it happens.
No Right or wrong as long as you follow your original plan.
You can of course in time modify your plan based on market conditions.
Any questions, comments or feedback please let me know :)
Thank you
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) - Solutions?Hi Traders. Today's I'm going to discuss about "Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)". It is a very common trait among new and experienced traders. Till present, I still have this 'evil' occasionally popping out leading to unnecessary loss. One thing to remind yourself is that, emotion isn't something you can eliminate completely. Human beings were made with emotions, what you can do is to organize your mind to control its performance.
"Chains of habits are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken" - Warren Buffett
Constantly learning and practicing, put knowledge as the priority is what you can do to improve your performance and ensure your mind is at its peak. Do the right thing. The illustration above isn't a general representation of all, but for someone who's regularly over-trading and revenge trading, this post is worth a read. Below I've concluded several points if you're having FOMO.
1. Emotionally triggered/ attached - During my early phase of trading, I was always emotionally triggered or shock by the market movement. Eg. "Why is it going up? Why is it going down? Why is it doing this? Why is it not doing this?". First and foremost, the market movement is created by millions of traders (randomness). In the short-term it is mostly driven by technicals, long-term mostly driven by fundamentals. No one has any control over the market movement or its direction (Unless you're doing insiders' trading). Do not try to impose your personal will or expectations in the market, because it simply doesn't care. Trade what you see, conduct your due diligence, that's it. If you're always having that stubbornness thinking you must be right, it's just the matter of time where reality hits and you'll get hurt pretty badly.
2. Not following your initial plan - To be consistently profitable, you need to tackle the market everyday in the same perspective. You cannot allow yourself to constantly switch from one strategy to another. Consistent action plan generates consistent result, put more attention into the process not the outcome. "The eagerness to control the outcome is illusional" - Rande Howell
3. Constant re-assessment (Overthinking) - If you're a FOMO person, you'd tend to overthink a lot. "What If I don't sell now It goes down? What If I don't buy now It goes up?" You simply do not need to get involved in the market all the time to make money, profit comes when you're doing the right thing over a long period of time.
4. Jump from one bias to another - From the illustration above, have you ever switch from long bias to short bias so quickly just because you "think" you're wrong? Because of some sudden market movement, you unconsciously throw your initial plan out of the window then make some impulsive decisions. If yes, then from now onwards you MUST remind yourself that there are only 3 general directions in the market (Up/ Down/ Sideway). Stick to your initial plan or bias, unless you're an experienced trader with great flexibility on spotting short-term momentum shift. Or else, simply allow the market reveal whether you're right or wrong. Avoid rotational market condition especially when you're new into trading, because it is usually where majority tend to give back their hard earned profits.
5. No strategy/ game plan - Trading is not a get-rich-quick game. Work hard, study, and practice to improve your knowledge. It is a marathon not a sprint, to succeed in this business you will experience failure. Never give up, and learn to make peace with your losses. As long as you stay in the business long enough, you will succeed. Put in the effort to back-test, it gives you the confidence to execute the same setup repeatedly as you have the data to back-up your mental capital when you're having some terrible drawdown. Yes, I've seen traders who succeed without back-testing, but trust me it is very unlikely. Knowledge is power.
6. Nervous/ panic - This is one of the common texts I receive regularly. "What should I do? I am currently down xxx $ amount". Discipline is the toughest yet the strongest tool in trading. If you're uncertain about your decision or the outcome, simply avoid them. Hesitation comes from fear, If you're uncertain about a position, don't take them. It makes no sense putting your money at risk on something that you don't even know. Quality over quantity, focus on high probability setups. How do you assess the quality of a setup? Simply back-test them, then find out the long-term expectancy of the strategy.
"The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett
Comment down below what's your worst losing streaks and what's the underlying cause?
Trade safe as usual.
Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
US Indices Backtesting and Charting Session On Price Action Hello everyone:
As promised I will periodically make these backtesting/chart work videos on different markets, pairs and timeframes.
This is for me to present the importance of backtesting in trading consistency.
Not only it will help traders to not have emotional decisions such as FOMO or fear of losing, it will give traders confidence at identifying trade opportunities and execute them when the time comes.
The more we do backtesting, the easier we spot an entry, setting a SL/TP, and remove any emotional decisions.
Today I want to go into the US Indices, specifically the SPY, NASDAQ, DOW. I will pick a few market crashed examples and dig deeper into them.
Few educational videos below on the topic of backtesting, and why it will help you in your trading journey.
How & Why I backtest:
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Backtesting & Chartwork on USDCAD:
Any questions, comments, or feedback please let me know :)
Thank you
Jojo
Trading Psychology - State of MindHi Traders. Today's topic is something I've been highlighting all the time which is trading psychology. Bare in mind, you can have or given the best strategies but still not being consistently profitable due to an unhealthy psychological state. The other day, there was one relatively new trader, 1 month into the business asking for my help, as he was involved in a EU short without any Stop Loss with over 100pips negative. Pray & hope is a common mistake of new traders, if you are watching this post It is likely that you're trying to improve yourself. In this educational post I will be uncovering some of the emotions that we all go through as a trader.
Winning
Ask yourself, how many times when you have an amazing plan, but it got thrown out of the window just because your account was in a huge unrealized profit? Greediness (Euphoria) kicks in, you begin doing things that's not included in your initial plan, you scale-in and over-leverage thinking that this MUST be "that" winning trade. Ego and arrogant starts kicking in, result in irrational behaviour. Always remind yourself that, no matter how good you are at predicting the market, the probability of outcome of each trade remains 50/50. The only way that you can have an edge in the market is by back-testing, and utilize the past data into your advantage to develop strategies that give you positive expectancy overtime. Constantly imprint your initial plan into your brain regardless of how well the position is moving into your favour, have an exit plan beforehand, and stick to it. Things can always go wrong, stay focused.
Losing
Fear comes from hesitation. For majority of novice traders, they're always hesitating clicking that buy & sell button. simply because they're not willing to put in the work to back-test, practice, and learn. Believe or not, I've seen plenty of confident traders telling me that they are going to be "the one". Imagining that they can master the craft within months, but that's simply not the ugly reality. Market decides wherever direction it wants to go, if you're thinking that you can beat the market, you're putting yourself into some self-sabotaging mentality. Usually what happen when traders' in drawdown, is that they'll begin overthinking. Being denial that they 'cant' be wrong, which is a huge warning sign of indiscipline. Result in moving their stops, not cutting their losers quickly, or at worst not having any SL. As mentioned earlier, the probability of outcome of each trade is always 50/50, regardless of how "market genius" you are. If you're wrong on particular position, cut it and move on. Believe in your intuition, when things go wrong, it really does. There's always another trading day, there's always more opportunities, get a break and come back stronger. Imagine your account balance as your bullets, you can't fire a gun without it, do not make unrecoverable mistakes just because of that moment of irrationality.
Emotional Control (Balanced)
This is what every successful trader striving for, which is understanding their own emotions and pull the hand brake when necessary. Every successful trader I've met have one common trait, which is having little opinion in the market. Novice traders always think that to make huge profit, you 'must' know which direction its going. By having little opinion in the market, it allows you to have a peaceful state of mind, allowing the markets to do whatever it wants and stay reactive. "Trade what you see not what you think", stay humble, and be an observant. You do not need to be involved in positions all the time to make profit, successful traders know when to step back and remains rational all the time. Do get it right, being a successful trader does not mean you need to get it right 100% of the time, it is about how fast you are able to recover yourself during a drawdown period, and avoid being sucked into the emotional vortex.
Personally, long long time ago when I first started trading, I got involved in an AUDUSD short position, I was down over 120 pips ended up receive a margin call, blew up 75% of my account. But hey, It was a great experience!
Comment down below what's your worst trading nightmare, and share your experience!
Knowledge is power. Know how to make peace with your losses and profits will come. "The outcome of a trade cannot be controlled, but the mind can be organized to control its performance" - Rande Howell
Trade safe as usual.
Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Detail look into “M” & “W” Structures/Patterns in Price Action
Hello everyone:
Welcome back to another price action structures/patterns video.
Today let's take a look into the “M” and “W” style structures/patterns.
Many traders may use these types of structures/patterns in their trading plan/strategies.
Let me show you guys my interpretation of them, and how I utilize them in my trading as well.
It's important to understand many of my previous price action analysis, structures/patterns videos all tie into this one as well, I will put those links below.
Essentially, a “M” or “W” style pattern is a double tops/bottoms pattern that appears mostly towards an end of a run of the current price.
They are “reversal” price action structures/patterns. They are most effective when we tie in other price action structures/patterns with it.
Let me give multiple examples of these structures/patterns in different markets and time frames.
“M” Style Pattern
-Double tops structure after price failed to continue the first initial push down.
-Top of the Right M, needs to have a reversal structure on the LTF or smaller time frames (ascending channel, H and S pattern..etc)
-Can either enter at the breakout of the reversal structure or the first correction after the impulse down
“W” Style Pattern
-Double Bottoms after price failed to continue the first initial push up.
-bottom of the Right W, needs to have a reversal structure on the LTF or smaller time frames (descending channel, Inverse H and S pattern..etc)
-Can either enter at the breakout of the reversal structure or the first correction after the impulse up
Double Top/Bottoms:
Ascending/Descending channel:
Head and Shoulder Pattern:
Continuation/Reversal Correction:
Multi-Time Frame Analysis:
As always, any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you
Jojo
Risk Management: prevent blowing a trading account
Hello everyone:
Today I want to go in depth into this particular topic as many beginner traders will make this similar mistake in trading sometimes in their trading journey.
It's important to understand that it's all part of a learning curve you must endure when it comes to consistency in trading. I myself had done this in the beginning of my trading time, and it ultimately comes down to how you manage your emotion that is going to help you to learn from this mistake and move forward. Some may go ahead and start making the mistakes that I will mention below, and accelerate into blowing their account. Some may acknowledge what's happening, and learn from their mistakes to prevent such things from happening in the future.
There are several key factors on what a trader should do and understand in order to not blow a trading account. I have made several key videos on these different topics which I will include below. I will touch on all these topics to provide a well-rounded suggestion and feedback on this matter. It's very important that you must have a good understanding of each area so it will help you to not only be consistent but to also continue to grow and compound your trading account in the future.
Few key points:
Trading Plan
A trading plan outlines your plan, rules and management for your trades. You must have a good written plan to guide you in situations. We don't make emotional decisions that may lead to many trading errors. Focus on creating one is the start. Have a few go to setups that you always look for in the market. Identify them and screenshot them so you know to take those over and over again.
Backtesting
We backtest so we are familiar with price action and the market’s movement. By backtesting, we train our brain to recognize the same/similar price action that has happened in the past. This allows us to execute without fear, or fear of missing out.
Backtest & Chartwork
Forecasting/Scanning the market:
Forecast the market is how we get a bias with the current live price action of the market. We see setups we like, and have confirmations to enter. If they don't happen or develop, no trade and move on. No need to have “ego” to prove everyone you are right.
How to scan the market
Risk management
Stick to proper risk management. 1% or a set amount is usually the best. Having a 3:1 RR is ideal when trading so even if you are less than 50% strike rate trader, you will see at least BE or small profits. Make sure you understand the exposure you are putting yourself into.
Stop Loss
When it comes to calculating your entries, you must set a Stop less on every trade. Don't just remove it in hope the price will turn around. Many new traders often don't set SL or move them as price gets close. This is how you will lose more money in the long run.
Trading Psychology: (FOMO)
Fear of missing out and fear of losing are the biggest trading psychology trader encounter. However, if you do enough backtesting, and have a plan in place, you can potentially remove these emotions. Understand that you will never capture all the moves that happen in the market, be graceful and positive on the opportunities you get.
Over Leveraged
Most new traders over leveraged their account. Having a small account with huge leverage is why traders blow their account in a short time. Leverage can work for you as well as against you. You must understand properly on leverage, margin and more. This ties you with your risk management and your SL.
Revenge trading
When new traders start losing money, they tend to want to “revenge” their losses by entering random trades, multiple trades and more. This combining with over leverage is how a new trader can blow their account in 1 day.
Journal:
Last but not least, journal down every single trade that you have taken. Whether it resulted in profit or loss. This is how you can learn from your past experiences. Do not deviate from this. Most new traders feel this is unnecessary and choose not to do it. Unfortunately, if you don't do them, your trading journey will not move forward. You will still make the same mistakes over and over again. Blowing an account is something no one wants to go through, but if a trader does not acknowledge his/her mistakes, then it is very likely to happen again and again.
So these are the few key areas where a trader should pay close attention to in order to not blow their trading account. The different strategies you trade aren't the issues why some blow their accounts, rather it's about their plan, management, mindset, emotion, psychology and expectations that ultimately decide the faith of the trading account.
Thank you
Jojo
How To Know If A Trend Is Ending? - Take Advantage of ReversalsHi Traders. Today I'm going to discuss about a highly requested topic, how could you stay informed and identify an ending trend/ reversal beforehand? It all begin with do you know how to identify a trend in the first place? It may sound simple, higher highs & higher lows sequence. Referring to the illustration above, believe or not, majority of new traders actually short into these simple continuation pattern thinking that the market is going to reverse anytime based on their FOMO, overthinking behaviour, misuse of candlestick pattern, and lack of knowledge. If you are new to trading, I'd recommend you to avoid mean reversion or reversal setups as most likely you are going to catch falling knives. It's relatively easier for new traders to trade with the trend as reversal trading is something require more experience, understanding of the market, and back-tested strategies. Do get me right, reversal is a highly profitable trading style that I am doing most of the time, but catching the tops & bottoms could be devastating if you're not doing it the right way. I'll pinpoint some common characteristics of exhaustion vs reversal below,
Exhaustion/ Continuation pattern
- Short in duration
- Tight range
- Weak pullback compared to the impulse
- Respecting static & dynamic support (Eg. EMAs, trendline, S&R, Fibonacci, etc.)
- Showing signs of a healthy trend
Reversal pattern
- Longer duration (Distribution phase)
- Wide range
- Strong pullback digesting the impulse (Shock the market)
- Disrespecting key levels & dynamic support
- No sign of a healthy trend
One thing to remind yourself, is to avoid finding reversal on the lower timeframe 1m - 15m charts, as there are time where you'd get trapped onto some seemingly healthy pullback on the higher timeframe, but you're treating it like a reversal which the Risk-to-reward ain't going to be great. Constantly practice and train your brain into spotting reversals is the best way to become a better countertrend trader. Keep your chart simple, understand support & resistance first before you jump into any other indicators or complicated strategies. Eg. on an uptrend, simply look for higher highs & lows until the market is not doing so, then you'll be cautious on possible momentum shift.
Knowledge, discipline, mindset.
" The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades, money is secondary " - Alexander Elder
Trade safe.
Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Bitcoin Psycology Cheat Sheet "Popped The Bubble"Traders should print this cheat sheet out and keep it by their desks!
You can save this cheat sheet using Like and Bookmark features!
Reason why I wrote this post, is tremendous amounts of Bullish signals in @TradingView community, just take a look at front page and first pages of Ideas tab.
IMHO this is signal of "Back to Normal" phase and we are appoaching big crash event during 2021/22.
Stay safe and be humble!
Best regards
Artem Shevelev
USDCAD Backtesting & Chart Work session on Price Action AnalysisHello everyone:
Welcome to a backtesting/charting session on price action analysis.
Many have inquired about how to properly identify market phrases (Impulse phrase vs corrective phrase).
In addition, how to use trendline properly to identify a structure/pattern as a continuation or reversal correction.
This session will be the start to all these.
So let's take a look into this. To start, make sure you have a new chart layout just for backtesting/charting work.
his won't get overlapped on your current chart for your normal analysis.
Utilizing tradingview’s feature on “replay”, this is how we can backtest and do chart work on previous price action that has already happened.
As we already see the price moved in that period of time, we then look for potential buy/sell bias entries to get familiar with the move within the market.
1. Start from the Higher time frames, top down approach. Utilize multi-time frame analysis to your advantage.
2. Identify what market phrase you are in, is the current price in a HTF impulse phrase ? or in a corrective phrase.
3. Now that you have a more clear bias on the HTF, then go down to the lower time frame to confirm your bias.
Do we see the same bearish/bullish price action on the LTF as well ? If so then that's a good indication that both HTF and LTF have the same buy/sell opportunity.
Look for possible entries on the LTF.
4. Repeat this process with different pairs, different markets to “program” our minds into looking for the similar buy/sell setups in the current, live market.
This is how we don't get FOMO, or fear of losing. If you have done enough backtesting and charting, then you simply remove the emotion out of the equation.
You have seen the move play out over and over again, then it comes down to probabilities.
Feel free to ask me questions, comments or feedback :)
Thank you
🚨 Dangers Out There For NEW TRADERS 🚨 Risk management has to be top priority of every trader. better to know more about risk management as early as possible otherwise, After taking tons of losses trader understands importance of risk management. Next up - we have lack of a proven strategy. There are a number of decent strategies out right now, but none come close to the simplicity and effectiveness of our proven and test proprietary strategy.
Following those, out next issue is brokers! Let me clarify: A certain broker WILL NOT make you a better trader than any other broker. Once you have the knowledge and skill set, you can use any broker that you like! But- Whether it be high commissions or the tools that are being offered, not all brokers are created equal!
📜 Trading Rules for Beginners:Remember guys a trader doesn’t predict the future, a trader reacts to the market following a strategy.
A winning strategy is to outline all the possibilities and have a plan for each of them!!! Always have a strategy and a plan before entering any position in the market!
A profitable trade that doesn’t follow your plan can’t be considered a good trade, by contrast a lose trade that sticks to your plan, still a good trade!
Stick to your plan and you will be a winner in the long term!!! .
What Is Price Action Trading?What Is Price Action Trading?
Hi Traders. In today's topic, I will be demonstrating Price Action trading through the illustration above. These are the summaries to price action trading
1. Price action traders usually have lighter focus on more distant price history, most typically focus on the recent price action (3-9 months).
2. Less emphasis on indicators. Price action traders focus more on the reasonings and human emotion underlying the charts. Do get me right, majority of successful price action traders do incorporate indicators into their trading to get that additional confluence.
3. Price action traders do not just recognize patterns, we study and understand them.
4. We do not just take support & resistance as levels, we view them as a 'memories' zone. Think about the logic behind support & resistance, they work so well because it creates a sudden shock or fear in the market as majority is paying attention to them and looking at them the same way.
5. Price action traders are constantly questioning themselves.
6. It is not easy to be a successful price action trader if you're lack of emotional control. A calm state of mind is vital.
Thought process (Questions)
1. What's the current market condition? (Ranging, channeling, weak/ strong trend)
2. Should I trade? Does my strategies/ setups work well in this market condition?
3. Is it buyers OR sellers territory? Who's in control?
4. Where is the area of value and sweet spot for entries? Is there any key levels that I need to be aware of?
5. Where can I sensibly place my SL? Where's majority placing their SL?
6. What's people on the sideline thinking?
7. Where's my target? Is it realistic?
8. What if it doesn't go according to my plan? What's the alternatives?
9. Am I comfortable losing this trade? Is it worth the risk?
Personally, as a price action trader, being patient is essential. Lack of patience would lead to some self-sabotaging snowball effect, waken up those negative trading habits (FOMO, over trading, revenge trading). Understand that as price action traders we're trading what we see, not what we think, never impose your personal will and expectations into the market, it is not your ATM. Sometimes the best trade is not having a trade, knowing when to not trade is as equally important to knowing when to trade. Put in the effort, practice more, and learn from mistakes. Always be a student, stay humble!
"Trading is a ruthless business that does not take any hostages, so you better come prepared." - Nico Muselle
Trade safe.
Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Weekly Trading Recaps: AUDJPY, XLMUSD, SUGAR, BTCUSD Jan 24 2021Hello everyone
Welcome back to another quick weekly trade recap video on the positions.
I am currently in the mountains (lol) so may not get to my usual weekly outlook stream due to internet. But hopefully still update analysis :)
AUDJPY - Second position got out for BE. Currently in the third position in.
XLMUSD - Took out for a 1% loss.
BTCUSD - Still Holding, currently @ 3% profit.
SUGAR - Still holding, currently @ 2.5% profit.
Any questions, comments, or feedback welcome to let me know below.
Thank you
[Risk Management trick] Tilting the "Math" in your favor!We all try to find the strategies which offer best possible win probabilities.
Yet, we often overlook another crucial component of increasing your odds of winning => risk management.
Today, I am going to show you how you can use a simple risk management trick to tilt the "Math" in your favor.
Would you like to increase the output of your strategy by 25% without doing anything extra?
Imagine a 3R win suddenly increasing to 3.75R with no change in the strategy at all.
Consider this trade...
We are trying to setup a sell trade with a very defined -1R risk and +3R profit.
If we were to loose this trade, we will loose 1% of our capital - and if we win, we will make 3% in return (3RR).
Here, we assumed that we'll exit the trade when price moves -1R completely against us.
What if, we pivot our thinking and assume the trade is lost when price has moved -0.8R : because if the trade goes that much against you, there's a very high probability that it'll hit your stop loss too. There is no reason to pretend that it can still turn around at the last moment. Murphy's law truly applies here - "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong".
If we do really pivot our thinking, lets see how it works in our favor!
The Stop loss is now updated and set at -0.8R
So a win will still give us the same 3%, but the loss will only wipe out -0.8% from our account.
Now because our profit targets are still setup as per the original 1% trade, you can now see that we now get this extra reward if our trade hits its original 3R target
The moment we draw 3R as per our new -0.8R stop loss, we get this - You can see how the 3R with -0.8R stop loss is achieved much before than the 3R with -1R stop loss (obviously)!
That means, the extra reward you got when the trade reached your original 3R - is additional profit which you now have - without ever changing your trading strategy!
3/0.8 = 0.75 (which is 25% of your original 3R target)
0.75/3 = 25%
You now have extra an 25% reward for free!
New RR = 3.75
This is a very beautiful math equation for yet another reason!
Imagine you lost your trade with a -0.8R => the additional 0.75R you will achieve (for free) from another trade will extremely quickly cover up anything you lost.
As you can see, we can really use sound risk management techniques & Math to our benefit.
This is called : Tilting the "Math" in your favor!
Are You Still Making These Range Trading Mistakes?Are you still making these range trading mistakes? Majority of traders always have the sense of urgency to get involved into a position, which is a trait you need to avoid at all cost. Successful traders spend 90% of their time thinking, 10% of the time taking action. Trading in a range bound condition sounds easy, especially if you are referring to the textbook stuff. But range trading in live market condition varies every time. Believe or not, majority of new traders tend to give back all of their hard earned profit by over-trading/ revenge trading during a ranging market condition, it's never just about making money but to preserve your profit. These are some of the mistakes and solutions, hopefully to give you some clarity and to master range trading, making the most out of it.
Mistakes:
1. Sense of urgency - Refer to the chart above, before the dotted black line no one has any idea the market is going to range across, this is when you must take a step back and re-assess the market condition. Let the market do whatever it wants until you have a clue about it.
2. Trading the continuation pattern - One of the biggest mistakes I realize new traders constantly make is trading the continuation pattern during a range bound condition (Eg. flag, pennant, etc.). Yes, indeed sometimes it might works, but think deeply about the concept & purpose of an exhaustion pattern, it is to catch the fresh momentum after a temporary pause in the market. Why would you take momentum patterns within a range, when buyers & sellers are clearly agreed upon certain price range? It simply doesn't fulfill the risk-to-reward in your expectation.
3. Misuse the candlestick patterns - Candlestick patterns only work when you use in the right context. Imagine you taking a short just because there's a bearish doji in a parabolic uptrend, does it make sense? Avoid overthinking about candlestick patterns, it simply tells you what happened within the time period. Always utilize it correctly.
4. Fail to identify the area of value - The most important thing about range trading is identifying the area of value (support & resistance zone). Identify where you think you could safely lean your SL against, and have a realistic target.
5. Chase the breakouts - In the live market, there'd be tons of spikes near the support & resistance zone, avoid chasing them to prevent unnecessary losses.
Solutions:
1. Trade the higher timeframe - During a range bound condition, personally I would avoid trading the lower timeframe (1min - 15min charts). Simply because a breakout on the lower timeframe could be a regular wick rejection on the 1h chart, avoid going down to lower timeframe especially if you are an aggressive trader like myself.
2. Pending order - Identify area of value where you'd like to get involved in the market, place a pending order, allow the market to come to you instead of you chasing it.
3. Widen your SL & realistic target - During a range bound condition, it is always safer to have your SL at a sensible place and have realistic target. You cannot expect to have a 1:5RR trade in a range bound condition, avoid being greedy.
Trading is never easy, but being patient allows you to have a calm mind to read the market. Trade safe.
Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Futures Vs Forex Platforms Same instrument different levels of risk permitted. That can make or break a trader by over leveraging an account, and not applying proper risk management. Able to risk 2% or less and the ability to scale in for more profit without having to compromise your risk percentage is the key advantage in a forex platform. I was able to enter the same trade on a forex platform and bailed that same trade on a futures platform all because the risk was too high.
Double Top Variations- Flexibility Is ImportantHi Traders. Today's topic is about one of my favourite reversal setups of all time. If you are constantly searching for the perfect double top pattern or you are looking to add a reversal strategy into your trading plan, this post is dedicated for you. Let's get into the story behind a double top pattern. Imagine yourself trying to get through a concrete wall by banging it with a hammer, banged once, you took a bit of break. Banged twice still failed, you are frustrated and eventually give up because it consumes too much energy or you're planning to come back another day, giving yourself enough time to recharge so you could return with more energy and power. Eg. In an uptrend, buyers attempt to breach a key resistance level but there are too much selling pressure against them OR buyers are simply taking their profit off. Price then pulled back and have the second attempt, still do not find enough bullish momentum enough to get through the barrier, buyers eventually give up and sellers then step in with increased selling pressure taking control of the market. There are some of the double top variations that I've traded from time to time.
1. Regular (Equal high) - This is the typical textbook double top, where the market creates an equal high double rejection, followed by a strong reversal.
2. Distribution top - This variation is something occurs very often, where most traders find it misleading and get hooked into the opposite direction. The second top looks like a 'buildup', breakout sort of situation. Usually the distribution (consolidation) phase will take some time, It is the gradual exhaustion of buyers attempting to breach the resistance zone but fail multiple times. Eventually It results in some rollover/ rotation, reversing downwards as buyers are slowly quitting and big sellers are accumulating their sell orders in a discrete manner. In this specific variation I'd often use the 18 ema & 50ema to identify the gradual shift in momentum, ideally ema crosses to help me with finding the sweet spot for entries.
3. Probe variation - One of the biggest mistakes majority of new traders make is the false concept of 'stop hunting'. As an advice, support or resistance are zones where the majority expects the market to respect, It is NOT a level or specific price point. If you are constantly putting your SL overly tight, you will get stopped out very often simply because you do not understand the purpose of a SL. SL is nothing but a trigger that invalidates your initial thesis, never treat it as a tool to maximize your position size, allow the market to breathe. The concept of fake out/ probe is straightforward, price attempt to violate certain key levels, but there's an immediate force (disagreement) pushing the price back into the range, this is what creates a wick rejection. There are times where sellers do not find enough liquidity to reverse the market, so they simply identify a level where the majority place their stops, hitting that zones before it goes into the opposite direction.
4. Lower high - This happen because the market do not have enough 'steam' to get back to the previous high, It then eventually rejects the previous minor support turns resistance, followed by a complete reversal.
Avoid looking for the perfect setup, flexibility is important.
Trade safe.
Do follow my profile for daily fx forecast & educational content
Setting up and utilize tradingview (layout, drawing panel)Hello everyone:
Welcome back to a quick video on tradingview setups. Many of you have asked me about how you should set up your charts, your settings, customizations, watchlist..etc. So I will make a quick explanation video on this.
Chart:
-Create a blank chart
-Save under different names for different purposes
-candlesticks
-timeframes
-screens
-syncing
Setting/customization:
-color
-appearances
Drawing Panels:
-favorite the ones you're gonna use the most.
Watchlist:
-create watchlist
-flagging
Alerts:
-set only the ones with high probability potential, do need to set like 30 alarms.
As always, any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you