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Travelers: On an excursion 🗺️ 🚎The Travelers stock could once again honor its name and undertake a volatile journey. We now locate the stock in the magenta wave (y), which should undercut the support at $157.33 and then bring the superior wave (4) in green to its end. It should be noted that it is also 39% likely that the stock has already established the low of the larger correction with wave alt.(4) and will next break out directly above resistance at $173.47. Following the deposited wave (4) low - whether by primary or alternative means - we expect significant price gains
NYSE:TRV
by MarketIntel
intel - analysis - inside 💻Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉 INTC has been overall bullish trading inside the rising wedge pattern in blue and it is currently approaching the lower bound / blue trendline. Moreover, the 31-32 is a strong support zone. 🏹 So the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As INTC approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by TheSignalyst
4
Soft landing calls for tough choices2023 has been a tough year for stock pickers. The gap between equity factor styles has been vast over H1. Growth, riskier in nature, posted the best performance up 24% year-to-date (YTD) followed closely behind by quality up 20% YTD1. The excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) reached a fever pitch in H1 2023, supporting growth-oriented technology stocks. As we enter H2 2023, we remain constructive on select areas of global equity markets. The resilience of the US economy has defied all odds. The strength of the US consumer (accounting for 70% of GDP), alongside the fiscal impulse, has been the cornerstone of the US’ extraordinary resilience. While inflation has shown encouraging signs of decline in the US, strong economic momentum alongside a rebound in commodities raises the risk of a re-acceleration of inflation. In turn, rates could remain higher for longer, resulting in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts being delayed until Q1 2024. In such an environment, an enhanced equity income approach could fit well. Even if the earnings outlook weakens in China, proactive policy support via rate cuts could support its stock multiples. In Europe, where we are likely to witness a mild recession, we believe adopting a more cautious and defensive approach is warranted. Earnings revision ratios remain the strongest in Japan while they are the weakest in emerging markets. US equities are the belle of the ball It was the narrowest market in history, with just 25% of stocks outperforming the S&P 500. Expectations of cooling inflation aiding the Fed to end its current tightening cycle supported the performance of higher-duration growth stocks. For investors calling for a soft landing, rates are likely to remain at current levels or higher for a longer duration of time. A tight US labour market, with unemployment at historic lows and rising wages, is likely to slow the downward pricing momentum in the service sector. As the market regime transitions, it should provide a ripe opportunity for market breadth2 to improve. Markets may begin to favour value and dividend-paying stocks. History has shown us that breadth tends to improve as the economy recovers from a downturn. Peak pessimism towards China China’s reopening rebound has faded. The transition to a less debt-fuelled, less property-reliant and more consumer-driven economy is an important adjustment. We expect government stimulus policies to be aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the private sector. Further iterations of policy rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) are likely to follow; however, outright quantitative easing won’t be on the cards, as it is likely to further weaken the yuan, which the PBOC would like to avoid. With a low correlation to US equities (at 20x P/E)3 coupled with a high valuation discount, pockets of China continue to provide good investment prospects. Pockets of opportunity in non-state-owned enterprises Non-state-owned enterprises, particularly within the Technology, Communication Services and Health Care sectors, faced the brunt of China’s regulatory crackdown. These regulatory interventions stifled growth in key sectors such as e-commerce, mobile payment, ride-hailing, and online education. It also resulted in the suspension of initial public offerings (IPOs) and delisting of Chinese internet companies. Growing political frictions in supply chains are incentivising China to regain independence in the semiconductor and hardware space. Chinese technology companies are trading at a significant discount compared to US peers, offering plenty of room to catch up. Prefer defensives over cyclicals as Europe runs out of steam Nearly six months back, investors marvelled at how the euro-area economy had emerged from the energy crisis. That momentum appears to be fading as China’s recovery slows down, consumer confidence declines, and the impact of tighter monetary policy gains a stronghold on the economy. Higher inflation over the past year is holding back demand from households, which is hurting growth. The monetary tightening over the past year not only triggered an increase in real rates, it also impacted borrowers’ credit metrics. Owing to this, eurozone banks have tightened their lending standards.4 Banks remain the primary source of corporate funding in Europe. The credit impulse—that is, the annual change in the growth of credit relative to GDP—in the euro area reached its lowest point since 2010. TINA is alive in Japan There is no alternative (TINA) to equities is still alive in Japan. This is evident from higher equity risk premiums of 2.97% for Japan compared to 0.41% in the US.5 While the rest of the world has been busy trying to quell the inflation fires, Japan has emerged from the COVID-19 lockdowns with a faster pace of growth and higher inflation. A combination of higher equity risk premiums, a weaker yen supportive of the Japanese export market, corporate reforms, and attractive valuations have been important catalysts for equities. Policy shift still remains loose The Bank of Japan (BOJ) took a significant step towards normalisation in July by announcing a further adjustment to its yield curve control (YCC) regime. The BOJ formally changing its course constitutes an acknowledgement that inflation is returning to the Japanese economy. Yet the BOJ lowered its (median) inflation forecast for fiscal year (FY) 2024 to +1.9% and left its FY 2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%, in effect justifying ongoing easing by the BOJ. With Japan’s nominal growth rising over the coming years, the revised policy by the BOJ still remains loose, supporting the case for Japanese equities. Historically, a weaker yen has benefitted the performance of Japanese exporters as it enhances their competitive advantage. Adopting a tilt towards dividend-paying Japanese equities is likely to reap the benefits of not only a weaker yen but also corporate governance reforms. Conclusion As we progress into year-end, the outlook remains more nuanced. In the US, we favour value and dividend stocks as equity market breadth improves. While China’s problems in the housing sector are likely to remain a drag on domestic demand, we do see pockets of opportunity in undervalued sectors – technology and healthcare. Given the strong manufacturing headwinds facing Europe, we expect weak growth in the eurozone for the remainder of 2023, potentially favouring a tilt towards defensive stocks. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 11 October 2023. 2 Breadth is measured by comparing the equal weighted performance versus the market cap-weighted performance of the US stocks listed on the S&P 500 Index. 3 P/E = price to earnings ratio. 4 Euro area Bank Lending Survey (BLS), April 2023. 5 Bloomberg, WisdomTree, as of 29 September 2023. Equity risk premium is the difference between the earnings yield and the respective 10-Year Government Bond Yield. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
SP:SPX
by aneekaguptaWTE
In uncertain environments, Quality Dividend Growers the answer2023 saw one of the narrowest bull markets in history, with only 10 stocks contributing 14.3% out of the 20.6% rally during the first 7 months of the year. Since then, markets have turned with the S&P 500 and the MSCI World dropping around -7% since their top1. Looking forward to the rest of 2023 and beyond, uncertainty is high: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached or is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the easing cycle is still distant and its speed is unknown. The US may avoid a full-blown recession but a recessionary environment with below-average growth is still on the table. Further disinflation may be slower as we get closer to target, and energy prices continue to put pressure on core CPI. In such uncertain times, investors could be contemplating reducing risk in their portfolios. However, many of them have been caught with an underweight in equities early in 2023 and missed out on the rally, leading to underperformance. To avoid a repeat, remaining invested but shifting equity exposures toward higher quality, dividend growing companies could help protect the downside while maintaining exposure to the upside. Quality stocks tend to outperform at the end of rate hike cycles With the rate hike cycle reaching its end, it is interesting to see what happened historically to equities in the 12 months following the end of rate hike cycles. The absolute performance of US equities has been quite dispersed following the end of the last 7 rate hike cycles by the Fed. US equities returned 24% in the best period and -18.8% in the worst. Looking at high-quality companies, we observe some consistency, though, since they outperformed the market in 6 out of those seven periods. The only period of outperformance was in 1998, when quality companies returned ‘only’ 23.3% versus 24.3% for the market. In the two periods when equities posted negative returns, quality companies cushioned the loss well, reducing the drawdown significantly. When investors get picky, quality companies benefit On observing the performance of high- and low-quality stocks depending on the level of growth in the economy. We split quarters into 4 quartiles, from low-growth quartiles to high-growth quartiles, and then calculate the outperformance or underperformance of those stocks in the quarter following the growth observation. We first observe the resilience of high-quality companies. While low-quality companies only outperform when the economy is firing on all cylinders, high-quality companies outperform in all 4 environments. High-quality stocks outperform more when growth is either low or below average. The style that doesn’t go out of style Investment factors ebb and flow between periods of relative under- and outperformance, depending on where we are in the cycle. One big exception is quality which is, in our view, the most consistent of all factors. Sure, quality can lag in the sharp risk-on rallies that typically mark the start of an early cycle snapback; but those environments don’t tend to last, and neither does quality’s underperformance. In fact, there hasn’t been a rolling 10-year period when quality underperformed since the late 1980s. The rolling outperformance of different US equity factors versus the market over 10-year periods since the 1970s based on the data from a famous academic: Kenneth French. On average, over periods of 10 years, quality is the factor that has historically delivered outperformance the most, often by a significant margin (90% of the time, the second best only hit 78%). It is also the factor that exhibited the smallest worst performance. Conclusion Overall, high-quality companies have exhibited outperformance in periods of low growth, in periods following rate hikes and, more generally, across many parts of the business cycle. With economic uncertainty remaining elevated, and an equity rally that is faltering, investors could consider quality as their portfolio anchor. Sources 1 WisdomTree, Bloomberg. As of 27 September 2023. 2 WisdomTree, Bloomberg, Morningstar, June 2016 to June 2023. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CBOE:SPX
by aneekaguptaWTE
BNT THE FIRST COIN THAT CAN SHOW EXPLODE in 2023Thank you for taking the time to read our update. Please remember that this is not trading advice. We are familiar with the cryptocurrency market, where some coins appear to increase in value but eventually return to their initial levels. This is why many cryptocurrencies are considered risky, as they often lack a consistent upward trend in their price cycles. Could BNT be the first coin to establish a sustained increase, reaching $1 or even $3? This is precisely what we will be monitoring in the near future. However, this can only happen if BNT can maintain stability on a weekly time frame, which is something we need to confirm. If BNT follows a pattern similar to that of large investors (whales) and experiences a significant increase in trading volume, it may have the potential to become one of the best-performing coins in 2023, with unexpected price growth. For now, it's a coin that we are closely watching.
Long
by SatochiTrader
1
Berkshire (BRK.B) -> Trend ContinuationMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Berkshire Hathaway. At the moment you can see that Berkshire stock is retesing its previous all time high which is roughly at the $350 area and we might see another short term bearish rejection. However considering that the overall trend is still very bullish I am waiting for a simple break and retest of the current resistance level and then I am looking for a trend continuation. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by basictradingtv
23
History of the U.S. told by SPX I wanted to take some time to recount you the tale of the U.S., from the roaring 20s until today. But I wanted to tell you this tell from the perspective of the S&P 500. And so after horrendous hours of research, I think I am ready to tell you this tale, and hopefully stay true to the S&Ps view of things. So here it goes! The Roaring 20s It all started in the 20s. The ROARING 20s. The roaring 20s were marked by stark improvements in social, political and economic modernization. The industrial revolution took off in the US and this created jobs, opportunities and, more importantly, disposable income for families across the US. This was the first time in US history where more families lived in cities than on farms, and thus marked our beginnings of an industrialized century. This was also marked by a lot of social innovation, such as night clubs (well, Speakeasies really) and general outings of people to events, theatres, etc. The Great Depression The roaring 20s came to a grinding halt in the 1930s with the onset of the great depression. The great depression was a complex result of an over-inflated stock market, changes to governmental policies, bank failures and a general over-inflation of company and share prices. Recovery Interlude Between 1932 and 1936, the US began a slow recovery from the depression. However, the US was thrown back into a recession in 1936, with the stock market seeing a 316% increase over 1676 days. This was abruptly halted at the end of 1936, beginning of 1937 when the US experienced yet another recession, that lasted until 1939. However, by 1939, the real GDP in the US was well above its pre-depression levels and, economically, the US had recovered from the depression. Word War 2 After the 1936 US recession, September of 1939 marked the commencement of World War 2 for the US. This lasted until September of 1945. While, for the most part, it looks like the US stock market stagnated through most of the war, interestingly the DOW increased 10% on the first day of trading after Hitler invaded Poland in 1939. Following the attack on Pearl Harbour, the market fell around 2.9% but regained those losses in one month. All in all, from the start of WWII to the end, the market saw an increase of 50%, so not really terrible and not really stagnation! The Start of the Never Ending Bull Run While there was an initial rally and correction following the termination of WW2, this period is traditionally marked as the start of the decades long bull run that we continue to be in today. There was a “baby dip” in June of 1950, on the commencement of the Korean War, where the S&P fell roughly 10%. But this was quickly bought back up and continued to run up: The Correction of 1953: After the first few years of the commencement of the decade long bull run, the market experienced its, arguably, first minor “correction” that wasn’t the result of any major catastrophes, just simply a cumulative effect of various small things. From Jan 1953 till about September of 1953, the S&P fell roughly 15%, bringing it back into its expected time series range for the time: This was the result of such things as: a) Rising inflation that lead to the Federal Reserving hiking interest rates (sound familiar?) b) Economic adjustment growing pains: Shifting from wartime to peacetime economics causes some volatility and adjustments at the societal and market level. c) Corporate earnings: With the result of war ending, some corporations which profited on the war efforts, started to fall short on earnings. This contributed to lack-luster earnings at the time. d) Over-inflated valuations: I mean, has anything changed? All this dip buying lead to over-valuation in stocks. Back on Track, 1950s style: After September 1953, the bottom was in and the S&P climbed up to approximately 119% over the course of 1065 days. This is one of the most dramatic examples of economic expansion. Economic expansion marked the most part of the 1950s, with declining unemployment, inflation that was more under control as a result of the interest rate hikes in the early 1950s, and increasing disposable income by households. In addition to this, there was great advancements in technology, with computers and processors being implemented in corporate and government contexts, and companies like IBM continually making advancements in this industry. Various Other Corrections: Throughout the 1950s up until 1969, there were various corrections, all resulting from the general same uncertainties and concerns, i.e. Inflation, employment, Federal Reserve and other governmental policies and geopolitical conflict. Its interesting that the same concerns that plagued the market in the 50s, 60s and 70s are still the ones affecting us today. The “Lost Decade” The Lost Decade started around the beginning of the 1970s, after a sustained bear market in 1969 (which lead to just over a 35% decline in the US stock market) and lasting till the start of 1980. It was called the lost decade because the US stock market spent a decade in stagnation. The result of this was mainly due to high inflation (when you hear people say stagflation, it generally is referencing a similar situation to this). This lead to a whole load of other problems such as: a) Increasing interest rates to combat inflation b) Increasing Conflict during the Cold War. c) Negative real returns (investors were not seeing any returns and overally negative returns on their investments over the course of a decade!), this lead to a lack of confidence and thus, in some cases, exoduses from the market. Along Came the 80s Then came the 80s, complete with leg warmers, aerobic classes, health consciousness, “the Millennial children” and massive technological advancements. At the start of the 80s, the market rallied about 50% in roughly 273 days: More Uncertainty and Pandemics Despite the strong start of the 80s, this was soon to be halted at the start of 1981. Nineteen-eighty-one was the onset of another correction. By 1981, the federal reserve had not let up. The US people were continually bombarded by persistently high interest rates. Additionally, the US economy was already in a recession at the beginning of 1981. There was also ongoing concerns around this time with the HIV pandemic; however, this isn’t theorized to have been a major influencing factor in this correction as the general attitude of Government and institutions was apathy in this regard (as, by this time, it was known to only be a concern for Haitian immigrants, IV drug users and gay men *eye roll*). It wasn’t until 1984, when this presented more of a public concern once contaminated blood supplies lead to a massive epidemic in the US and Canada. But, post 1981, as far s the market was concerned, smooth sailing, with the S&P climbing almost 200% in 1827 days (or approximately 5 years), marking an, on average, 40% a year increase. The Flash Crash of 1987 (AKA, Black Monday): October 19th, 1987 was marked by a sudden and severe decline in stock prices. The losses sustained on this crash were estimated at 1.71 trillion US dollars, as the market fell more than 20% in a single day. This was termed "Black Monday" (not to be confused with the awesome song Blue Monday by New Order.). The photo of the papers in the air really got me. I had to laugh because I can relate. On really bad days I have been known to throw things in the air and be like "I'm done. I'M DONE! The cause of this was thought to be the introduction of algorithmic trading model behaviour which then triggered mass investor panic, though, a tumble of this degree is likely to be multifaceted and never truly fully understood. Various tech stocks during Black Monday, IBM fell over 20%, AMD over 30%, MSFT over 29% and AAPL over around 29%. This was short lived however, and from then on was marked by the ever so famous dotcom bubble. The Dotcom Bubble: After black Monday, which also brought the S&P back into its anticipated time series range, the S&P return to normal and stable growth, reflecting the general economic conditions at the time. However, this was accelerated at the start of 1995 with the advent and rapid uptake of the world wide web. From the start of 1995 till about March of 2000, the S&P saw exponential growth, rising approximately 250% over 1885 days or 5 years (average return of 50% a year). This was marked by rapid technological advancements, euphoria and speculation and an excessive use of IPOs (despite most of them lacking profitability). While Euphoria and speculation sustained the market for an admirably long time, it came crashing down in the early 2000s when the lack of profitability of these IPO tech companies came to light (I am looking at you pets.com). However, in 2000, as these enterprises slowly began to liquidate and go defunct, the market, too, made a dramatic correction of 50%, back to its expected range: This lasted a total of 944 days, or about 2 years. The Housing Bubble And as the pendulum swings, we transition from one bubble to the next. Immediately following the dotcom correction, we then entered the housing bubble of the YTK era, where the market had a steady rise of over 100% in a span of 1826, or 5 years: The housing bubble wasn’t solely to credit for this growth, as the US had also declared war on Iraq. As we saw from the events of WW2, war tends to be looked at positively by the market (*another eye roll*). This does economically make sense though, war = business and business = profits. For war to happen, we need industries to produce. If we look at LMT (a huge military and defence sector) during the period of 2003 until 2008, it outpaced the S&P by almost 100%!! And RTX (a huge supplier of US defence) outpaced both LMT and the S&P, growing over 200% in this time: But unfortunately this, too, had to end. And we all know how it ended. The 2008 Crash I won’t dwell on this, it’s the most stated, studied and discussed event in market history, so there really is no need to dwell. But to summarize, the increase in subprime mortgage lending lead to increasing defaults. Increasing defaults on banks that, themselves, were over-leveraged, lead to bank closures, which lead to a whole domino effect with the end result being an over 55% decline in the US stock market over 518 days, or roughly 2 years. From there, we have since resumed the centuries long bull market and haven’t looked back. The brief COVID-19 Crash in 2020 actually led to a fairly decent correction back to the anticipated range of the S&P (a regression to the mean), but this was short lived: Despite tumbling over 35% in a matter of days, this was simply bought right back up and climbed 123% in a matter of 701 days: The results of this were likely attributed to the use of quantitative easing and the federal government monetary stimulus policies creating more money to inject into the market. The 2022 Bear Market: And finally, the 2022 bear market. I was reluctant to title it as such because some operate on the assumption that the bear market is still a thing, others operate on the assumption that it ended in 2023. If we look at the S&P currently, this is where we stand: If we are back in bull market territory and continue up (despite being outside of the time series mean), the 2022 bear market will be among the first bear markets in SPX history to not have undergone a regression to the mean (from a quadratic standpoint). But let’s look at it from a log-linear standpoint: The bear market of 2022 failed to re-test the mean. So for us to continue up towards the 2 standard deviation mark on the log-linear scale, it will mark a historic event really, a bear market that accomplished, well, nothing haha. Concluding remarks: And that, my friends, is the history, AND FUTURE, of the US, as told by the S&P. I hope you took something away from this, but importantly, my purpose of sharing this history with you is so you can see how, regardless of the time, the market is always concerned about the same things. That is: Interest rates, Inflation, Geopolitics and economic policies, War; and Corporate earnings. Its as true as time, nothing else matters to the market than the numbers. Perhaps its sad, perhaps its realistic, perhaps its reality, but it truly seems to be the only thing that has mattered historically and probably the key thing you should take away from this. Another final note, is that all of our corrections have lead to a "regression to the mean", both on the loglinear scale and on the quadratic scale. So it is interesting to see that we have not "regressed to the mean" with our 2022 bear market. Anyway, thank you for reading this lengthy post! Leave your comments, questions and critiques below. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPX
by Steversteves
16
US-Oil 17/9/23US-Oil in a bullish range looking for tap into this area to shift us into the next bullish expansion. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
TVC:USOIL
by rosshayes
XTIUSD( US OIL )LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet today XNGUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by ForexPlanet20