"CRUDE UPDATE"Time Window is there.....pullback or melt up to the Harmonic Levels......
Inside Day today possible forming.
USO
USO - Oil at resistance and 50MAUSO is right at its 50MA and previous resistance. While the longer time frames indicate oil wants to go higher, I see risk off until confirmation
USO, Which way will it go?USO on the verge of making a breakout move, again...
Which way will it goe
Again, a text book #oil reversal. Waiting for tomorrow's numbersOil is bearish. A text book trade. Congratulations if you are following the trend. Don't think for a second that it has bottomed yet. Before entering in any trade, watch tomorrow's oil inventories.
UPDATE"ON POTENTIAL SUPPORT"ODDS FAVOR A BOUNCE...POSSIBLE RETEST OF THE LOW
OR FALSE BREAK DEEPER INTO THAT AREA.
USO potential breakout short termUSO potential $9 breakout in progress with $11 max at top of resistance line
USO JAN 17 7 LONG CALL/APR 1ST 8.5 SHORT CALL DIAGONALTruth be told, things like calendars and diagonals are best suited for a low volatility environment, but I'm looking for a bullish assumption setup in oil that offers me some flexibility over a larger time frame than, for example, a 45 DTE credit spread would (which is generally just a "one and done" kind of thing). As an alternative to a covered call, I'm going long-dated diagonal here since I can do it more cheaply/smaller than buying USO outright (although at 8.33 a share, it's pretty cheap to begin with).
Here's the setup, although it's off hours and the option pricing is unlikely to be accurate:
USO Jan 17 7 Long Call/Apr 1st 8.5 short call diagonal
Max Profit: Undeterminable
Buying Power Effect: $1.52 debit/contract
Notes: You want to work this setup like a covered call, leaving the long option untouched as you roll the short option to rake in credit for the life of the trade, taking the entire setup off when the amount of credits received exceeds the debit you paid to put it on by some measure. Naturally, you can also continue to work the short call for credit all the way toward long call expiration as long as it remains profitable to do so. This is why the max profit of the setup is "indeterminable" -- it all depends on when you take the trade off and how much credit you've received for it up to that point.
POSSIBLE "PATHS OF PRICE"A BREAK ABOVE CAN LEAD TO TARGETS OF $45-$48 IF NOT HIGHER
OR ANOTHER NEW LOW TO $18-16
If Oil, gold and SPX stay linked, here is one possible set of paLEFT CHART Oil: I expect oil to hit the top of longterm channel (orange line) where it will likely be rejected softly, then break it again and retest... at about that point the 20DMA may cross the 50DMA which will cause a strong surge (like the past gold rush)... my PT 36,09 but could be higher.
MIDDLE CHART Gold: Looking for a possible H&S here, with a breach back into the long term channel, some flux for a bit and then the BIG move many believe is coming.
RIGHT CHART SPX: May test the middle of the W 1933ish is the next few days and then some flaggish movement towards a 50% retrace of losses from all time highs. Final PT 1973 with a sharp decline right after.
Since these 3 have had related movement patterns, I've done them all together - which could of course go WAY off course if any correlation breaks or changes... just some ideas if we stay on the same track for a bit.
Short-Term Bulls in favorBasic TA
Inverted Hammer in a downtrend approaching 200sma
Falling Wedge
supports mapped out
remember the market is fluid :)
USO Finding bottom and new channelUSO trended within a 12 dollar channel from 2009 to 2014. It could be finding a bottom at the crux of the triangle down, break out and begin trending in a new channel. Perhaps using resistance of the 62% fib line.
CRUDE "WEEKLY VIEW"WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE....
26.06 - 23.80
MIGHT CAUSE A REACTION.....LOWER TARGETS OF COMPLETION ARE STILL IN "TIME"
$CL_F $USO $DWTI $UWTI $OIL $XLE $DTO $UCO $CVX $XOM $HAL $EXXI $SCO $ETE $XOP
"25" IS THE MARKET BOTTOM THEY SAY........TAKE ANOTHER LOOKBe prepared for anything.....Markets can go lower and extend faster than most people think.
"25" may bring a short term bounce if it gets there. Only follow "The Language of Price". It is all that matters.
UPDATEFOLLOWING THE PATH...POSSIBLE SHORT TERM BOUNCE...PRICE ACTION MUST CONFIRM BUT STILL 26.60 LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE ON THIS SWING TARGET
Weekend update on USOIL (WTI)Looking at my recent postings I realize some of my labeling in inconsistent. So I will try to label again that hopefully makes more sense. Basically I see the action since the low of 1/20/16 to now as part of a A-B-C correction pattern. It still could be the start of a new larger scale 5 wave up but that seems less likely but could be considered if the recent high is majorly taken out. Of course corrections can come in all kinds of forms and be very frustrating to trade. My best guess however is that over the next week or so there will be one more wave up. It would be a "C" wave which often are quite energetic. I still think the 36-37 area is a likely target. At that level (C) =(A) and C =1.6x A and it reaches overhead resistance from the previous near term high. If we drop out of the larger channel then I am most likely wrong and will exit. Hope this turns out to be helpful. Have a great weekend and great trading next week. Goodguy
Feedback always appreciated.
US Oil: Possible short term course.The entire price action the last 3 days looks like a 5 wave up pattern.(see 15 min chart) This usually is followed by another 5 wave up pattern after a correction. The corrections can be complex (such as a 5 wave triangle) or simple (such as an a-b-c)). After that I would not be surprised to see another 5 wave move up to a new short high, perhaps to the 35-36 level. If it would go much higher then it could be part of a more extensive 3 wave. Obviously if the "correction" goes below the recent low this concept is wrong.
Take care. Goodguy
Short position on USO @ 9.4850Shorting USO with an Stop Loss really close.... The downside seems more profitable at these level....
USOIL WTI Support of 32.69 now became a ressistance line.At these level, its more profitable being short on USOIL than long with a stop loss set....
USOIL: Bottom may be in for crude oil On my previous post about 9 days ago I set down target for oil at about 18-25. It got to 27.53 then we had a nice bounce up. To me the form of the upswing looks like a 5 wave up pattern. This action could just be part of a 3 wave down triangle that is still developing and might take oil up to about 36. But it could be the first indication that the longer term bottom is in. This obviously will be wrong if the previous near term low is taken out.
Have a good week trading.
