WTI
a daily price action after hour update - oilGood evening and i hope you are well.
wti crude oil
bull case: Amazing day by the bulls. They broke strongly out of the bear flag and made the market always in long on the daily so i expect follow through to 78 or higher.
bear case: Bears see this as a trading range and they want the market to form a lower high below 78. After such a strong move on the daily, bears expect bulls to take profits and the market probably will go sideways before another leg up or down.
short term: neutral here - valid targets on both sides and today was strong enough for a breather over the next 1-2 days. If bulls manage to keep this running, 80 is highly probable but first they need a higher high above 79.
medium-long term: Sideways until clear break of range between 70-80
trade of the day: long → see chart
WTI stalls around resistanceThe core bias remains for a move up to $77, but as price action during the current rally on the 1-hour chart is choppy and has stalled near resistance, we're looking for a dip lower to around $73.
Also note that the weekly and monthly pivot points are hovering above the 10/20-day EMAs, which adds conviction that an interim top may be about to form.
⚡️Strifor || USDCAD-07/02/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: In addition to the euro and pound , the priority for selling the US dollar also applies to other majors . In this case, we will analyze USDCAD . In the medium and short term, the instrument is looking down quite confidently; we do not rule out a potential small rollback upward, but the main mood is, of course, bearish. In this regard, we highlight two main scenarios. Level 1.34000 acts as a target here for both scenarios. Scenario №1 is more about a short-term login attempt, and scenario №2 is more medium-term. Of course, scenario №2 will be more conservative than scenario №1 . One may also consider two scenarios simultaneously using the method of gradually gaining a position.
Thank you for like and share your views!
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to 50% Fibo lvl 74.32. Dear Colleagues. The price has shown strong momentum. In the coming week I assume that the price will start an upward movement, as a result of which I expect the price in the area of 50% Fibonacci level 74.32.
Last week's strong movement makes us re-draw the waves, but for this the price should make a correction to our target.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USOIL daily best level to buy/hold 24% upside🔸Today let's review the daily chart for crude oil . Recently price action contained
within well-defined range trading zone. therefore it's recommended to focus on
buying low near range lows.
🔸Strong horizontal support at 67 usd is a great entry point for a swing trade setup
for the bulls, short-term expecting more losses, however downside will be capped
by the strong S/R zone. Bulls should focus on buying low later, once the pullback
is complete near 67 usd.
🔸Overhead resistance set at 81/82 usd, defined by strong horizontal S/R zone
previously confirmed with numerous backtests. Therefore, recommended strategy
for the bulls: buy low near 67 USD TP 1 is 75 USD TP2 is 80 USD final TP/exit at
82 usd, this is +23% gains (unleveraged). obviously, buy/hold swing trade setup,
patience is required and will take more time to hit tp. good luck, traders!
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Hopes for higher oil price are getting shatteredThe hopes for higher oil prices were shattered last week with the announcement of a potential Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal, which led to a quick selloff in the oil market. Following the invalidation of a bullish breakout above $76.14, the price of oil kept sliding lower, finally hitting a low of $71.43 yesterday. Currently, the WTI crude oil trades close to $72.80 per barrel, and we pay attention to RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. All of these indicators began to reverse to the downside after the news hit the market, with RSI and Stochastic building bearish structures and MACD attempting to retrace back below the midpoint. If the MACD succeeds, it will bolster a bearish case in the short term. The same will apply to RSI and Stochastic continuing to develop bearish structures. However, as the ADX remains relatively low on the daily time frame, it is suggestive that there is a lack of any trend whatsoever. With this assessment, it is likely that WTI oil will continue to trade within the range between $68 and $75 in the foreseeable future.
Illustration 1.01
The image above portrays the daily chart of the USOIL’s MACD. A breakout below the midpoint will bolster a bearish case in the short term and elevate the odds of a breakdown below $70 per barrel.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI H4 | Overhead pressures remainWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 72.976 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 74.650 which is a level that aligns the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 70.729 which is a swing-low support.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
MCL: Where is oil price heading amid geopolitical tensions?NYMEX: Micro Crude Oil ( NYMEX:MCL1! )
The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. But in the case of crude oil, which is the lifeblood of the global economy, geopolitical risk carries a bigger impact.
Examples in present time: In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict sent crude oil up 72% to $124 a barrel. In October 2023, the Israel-Hamas conflict saw WTI price 40% higher to $94.
The rapid price rise following conflict eruption is called an “Event Shock”. Investors price crude oil in the worst-case scenario. Would it be the start of WW3, for the former event, and would the Gulf region oil production get cut off, for the latter event?
Typically, the fear for the worst is overblown. As the conflict progresses, oil prices tend to fall back down if that did not materialize. After the Western nations imposed embargo on Russian oil in 2022, Russia found new customers in India and China. We know that crude oil is a fungible commodity. The more the two countries buy from Russia, the less they will buy from the rest of the world. This helps keep the global oil supply in balance. Without a shortage, oil prices fell.
The Israel-Hamas conflict started in October 2023 so far has not dragged major oil producing nations into war. Even the Houthis Militia has been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, they would not strike oil tankers from the Arab nations. Therefore, neither oil production nor its transportation was interrupted, and oil prices fell as a result.
The previous Sunday, three US soldiers were killed, and more than 40 personnel injured in a drone attack at a US base in Jordan. The US vowed to retaliate. Last Friday, it has launched strikes on 85 targets in Syria and Iraq, in response to the drone attack. On Saturday, the US conducted air strikes to 30 targets in Yemen, the homebase of Houthis.
With the US now engaging in military actions to militia backed by Iran, the Mideast conflict could be escalated to a whole new level.
In addition to geopolitical risk, there are other tailwinds to support stronger oil prices: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut oil production last month as the group and its allies began a new effort to prevent a global surplus and shore up prices.
Output from the OPEC fell by 490,000 barrels a day (bpd) last month to 26.7 million bpd, according to a Bloomberg survey. About half the reduction came from Iraq and Kuwait. Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC and its allies pledged to make additional production curbs this quarter, on top of reductions made last year.
In the meantime, oil traders will see headwind ahead: Data on Friday showed that U.S. employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. High interest rates tend to dampen economic growth and reduce oil demand as well.
Oil prices fell by about 2% on Friday and posted weekly losses after U.S. jobs data release. WTI crude futures settled at $72.28 a barrel, falling $1.54, or 2%. The global crude oil benchmark lost roughly 7% on the week.
Trading with NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures
At about $72 a barrel, crude oil price is now below the price level before the Israel-Hamas conflict. It is also lower than oil prices before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Is there a good reason why the price of the most strategically important commodity goes lower amid intensifying geopolitical tensions?
You may point out that oil demand may be dampened by the weak Chinese growth, but I would argue that the robust US economy would offset that.
Institution traders share my view. Money managers raised their combined futures and options oil position in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent by 18,082 contracts to 117,226 in the week of January 30th, according to the Commitment of Trader (COT) report published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
To express a view of rising crude oil price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( CSE:MCL ). The March contract (MCLH4) was settled at $72.42 last Friday. It declined further to $71.75 at the time of this writing. Each contract has a notional value of 100 barrels, or $7,175 at the current market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $660 per contract.
Hypothetically, if the US strikes induce Iran retaliation and escalate the Mideast conflict, WTI futures could possibly go up above $90 a barrel. In this case, the $18 price increase (=90-72) would translate into $1,800 for a long futures position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (=18x100).
In my view, while the Fed may not cut interest rates immediately, it is still expected to lower rates at least 1 or 2 times, maybe at later meetings in 2024. Lower interest rates are also positive for oil prices.
However, if crude oil price continues to go down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $100 per contract.
Here are some extended readings on my previous trade ideas on crude oil:
October 9, 2023: Would the Middle East conflict push gold and oil prices higher?
October 16, 2023: MCO: Options Strategy to Capture Crude Oil Volatility
Happy Trading.
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WTI Oil H4 | Heading into resistanceWTI oil (USOUSD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 72.853
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop Loss: 74.718
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 70.451
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing low support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
USDCAD an updatehello guys...
it was the last analysis of the usdcad:
"look at the bottom of the chart, as you can see the last lower low touched the flip area and was rejected from there! so we can count on another upward movement!
on the other side, in a higher time frame, we can watch the price make a Quasimodo pattern and now it touches it with a pin bar candle so we can observe another rejection here!
we can get a long position here and close half of our position in the blue areas!"
as you can see the first target touched and the price did a correction! now I think this correction is over and it's time for the price to touch the next target!
let's review usoil too:
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Navigating the Oil Market: Current Trends and Future OutlookNavigating the Oil Market: Current Trends and Future Outlook
The recent two-week rally in WTI oil prices seems to have hit a pause, prompting a closer examination of the US oil market, China's economic activities, and the global supply side of the oil sector. In this report, we will delve into the factors influencing WTI prices, evaluate its future trajectory, and conclude with a technical analysis.
US Oil Market Dynamics:
Last week's discussion highlighted disruptions in the US oil market due to extreme weather conditions. While Baker Hughes reported a modest increase in active oil rigs, suggesting a recovery in production, conflicting data emerged. API reported a substantial drawdown in US oil inventories, whereas EIA indicated an increase, signaling ambiguity in the market. The potential resurgence of US oil production may exert pressure on prices if the rise in inventories aligns with increased production.
Chinese Economic Indicators:
Despite China's stimulus package, January's PMI indicators for the manufacturing sector present a mixed picture. NBS manufacturing PMI inched higher but remained below 50, signifying economic contraction. Conversely, Caixin manufacturing PMI dipped slightly but stayed above 50, indicating marginal economic growth. These conflicting signals raise concerns about China's ability to boost oil demand significantly, potentially influencing oil prices.
International Supply Side and OPEC:
OPEC's oil output experienced its most substantial monthly decline in six months, primarily attributed to disruptions in Libya. While Libyan production is expected to rebound, OPEC's ongoing discussions on planned production cuts could sway the market. Today's meeting may not alter production plans, but any deviation could impact oil prices, considering the market has factored in the current production outlook.
Technical Analysis:
Examining the daily chart, oil prices dropped after retesting the previous resistance area below $80, coinciding with the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Economic data discussed earlier suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend, with a retest of the May 2023 lows on the horizon.
Conclusion:
As WTI oil prices navigate through a complex landscape of supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment, a nuanced approach is essential for traders and investors alike. The intricate interplay of these elements will shape the oil market's future trajectory.
Our preference
Short positions below 76.50 with targets at 68.00 & 65.00 in extension.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - wti crude oilGood evening and i hope you are well.
Here my commentary from last week:
The bulls got their big breakout and we made 4.65 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet.
Bull case: Last weeks bull case was good for Globex open on Monday and that marked the high of the week and we sold off 7.5 points. Bulls have nothing until market finds clear support and that will probably take some days. Arguments for bulls are 2 trend lines, one we already touched Friday and bounced a bit but weak arguments at best. At 70 should be big resistance but this sell off is very strong. Bulls need to keep this above 70.60 for this to be a higher low.
Bear case: Big bear surprise for me this week. But since we are at support lines and bears did not print a lower low, i lean neutral. Bears need a break below and if they can get it, chances of a measured move down rise. Target could be 65 but let’s take this one by one. First target is 70.
outlook last week: “sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80.” → Well, pretty decent for about 2 seconds after Globex open on Monday. Big bear surprise for me. Bad outlook.
short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find support and i doubt it’s the bull channel. Big support is probably around 70.
medium-long term: Sideways until clear break of range between 70-80
USOIL AMAZING BULLISH OPPORTUNIY Confirmed !!Hello guys ,
it seems usoil started a bullish reversal after Breaking the neckline of the double bottom and an important keylevel on the daily tf.
if the price manages to do a pull back towards the area where the trendline + poc + demand zone is it could give a great great buying opportunity .
Update the PULLBACK was done exactly as expected am waiting for reversal signals for a long trade
lets wait and see !
Hellena | Oil (4H): Short to area of 72.32.Dear colleagues, I have redrawn the waves as a consequence of the change in the trend direction. I believe that the price will still resume the upward movement, but for now I expect the completion of wave B in the area of 72.32. Before this movement, a test of the resistance area of 75.95 is possible.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Geopolitical tensions are starting to weigh on oil pricesThe United States’ decision to conduct airstrikes earlier this week against targets in Somalia and Yemen provoked more aggression from Houthi rebels, who engaged in multiple new attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Following that, Yemen’s rebels claimed a successful hit to the U.S. military ship, which the United States quickly denied. Despite months of ongoing attacks on ships passing through the strait, there have not been any reports of casualties. However, the odds of a fatal tragedy are growing together with the increasing intensity of Houthi’s attacks. Such an event would likely elevate tensions to a new level and put significant pressure on the United States government to act. In the scope of this worsening crisis, the odds of higher oil prices are climbing. On the technical side, some developments suggest oil might be prime for a run higher as well; the MACD crossed into bullish territory on the daily graph, and RSI and Stochastic continue to build bullish structures. Nonetheless, one thing to note is that the ADX is still relatively low, hinting the trend is very weak. Therefore, it might be proper to wait and see whether the USOIL manages to close above $76.14 for at least two consecutive days before committing to a bullish outlook.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the MACD breaking above the midpoint on the daily time frame.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of the USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. An important level to watch is support at $76.14. If the USOIL manages to make another two consecutive closes above this level, it will bolster the bullish odds.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
WTI OIL Technical pull-back. Buy on these levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us the most optimal buy entry last time we made a call on it (January 22, see chart below) and almost touched the 79.40 Target before pulling back:
The pattern that has emerged is a Channel Up that started since the December 13 2023 bottom. The recent top at 79.30 is a technical Higher High for the Channel Up and the rejection has started the new Bearish Leg to a Lower Low (bottom of Channel Up). However the price may not pull-back that far this time as the 4H RSI is testing its Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the December 06 2023 RSI Low and has already given 3 contact points for buy entries.
As a result this is where we are placing our 1st buy, with which we are targeting 83.00, being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Top and right under Resistance 2 (83.60). That will establish a new 'diverging' Channel Up (dotted lines), that will aim for a similar Higher High range (+12.15%) as the January 28 High.
Since however the price already broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we have to consider the possibility of a lower decline, which can indeed be as low as the bottom of the Channel Up, on a -9.00% decline (such as the January 03 Low). We believe though that in order to establish the new medium-term uptrend, the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) has to hold, so most likely this is the potential max downside extension. With that long, we will target the top of the (blue) Channel Up at 81.00, a little lower than the previous +14.40% Bullish Leg.
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Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande
On Wednesday, WTI crude futures dropped below $77 per barrel, undoing a 1.4% increase from the prior session, all while the U.S. readies itself to address a lethal attack on its troops in the Middle East.
Perhaps traders are concerned more about the liquidation of China Evergrande, raising worries about the overall Chinese economy. There is fear that this uncertainty in China could lead to a decrease in demand for crude oil.
However, there is a question of whether traders might be underestimating the potential for U.S. responses to the lethal attacks to escalate tensions or lead to a conflict with Iran.
Despite President Biden expressing a desire to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, there are concerns about the unpredictable outcomes of such military actions.
The Guardian predicts dire consequences if there is direct American military retaliation against Iran. This could prolong the Gaza conflict, trigger a Hezbollah attack on Israel, escalate conflicts in Iraq and Syria, and destabilize friendly regimes in Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf. Additionally, such actions could inadvertently assist China in pursuing its anti-democratic geopolitical ambitions and provide justification for Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
Hellena | Oil (4H): Long to resistance area 79.37(Wave C again).Dear colleagues, the price has confidently reached the previous target of 79.37. Now the price is in correction and I suppose that the price will test this area again. It may even retest the high of 79.30. After that, most likely, I will consider a downward movement, but more on that later.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
WTI Oil H4 | Potential Bullish BounceWTI oil (USOIL) could fall towards a pullback support and
potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 77.081 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 75.900 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 79.750 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.