Gold Analysis==>>Falling(Signs)Today's data release included the Core PCE Price Index , Employment Cost Index (ECI) , and Unemployment Claims . Core PCE, the Fed's key measure of inflation, saw slower-than-expected growth, suggesting some cooling in consumer prices. This could lead to a potential moderation in the Fed's rate policy if inflationary pressures continue to ease.
The ECI also grew slower than forecasts, indicating wage growth remains somewhat controlled, which also alleviates inflationary concerns. Meanwhile, the higher-than-expected unemployment claims hint at challenges in the labor market.
According to the recent economic data and the possible reduction of inflationary pressures, the desire to reduce the interest rate has increased, and this has caused the price of gold to decrease . Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD )is attractive as a safe-haven asset in times of high inflation, and deflation has reduced its demand.
Regarding Technical Analysis , Gold started to fall, as I expected in the previous post.
According to the Elliott wave theory , Gold has completed main wave 5 , and we should wait for Corrective Waves .
One sign of a further decrease in Gold can be the formation of a Bump and Run Reversal Top Pattern , which is currently in the Run phase .
I expect Gold to continue its downward trend due to the high momentum of the decline experienced in the previous hours. Drop targets can be the Support zone($2,720-$2,708) in the first step and then the Lower line of the Ascending Channel .
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 1-hour time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Xauusdshort
Gold Price Analysis October 31Fundamental Analysis
The US Dollar (USD) attracted some buying on the dip and now appears to have halted its corrective slide from three-month highs amid bets on a slower pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), supported by strong economic data. This, coupled with concerns over the growing US fiscal deficit, continued to push US Treasury yields higher and limited the upside in the non-yielding yellow metal as it remained mildly overbought on the daily chart.
Traders also appeared reluctant to place fresh bullish bets on Gold, opting to wait for the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. In addition, the closely watched US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday will be looked at for clues on the Fed's interest rate outlook, which will boost demand for the precious metal.
Technical Analysis
After a strong reaction around 2771, the session port zone was formed and is the immediate support level today for gold prices to react. 2756-2758 is noted in the area after which is a notable break point. In the resistance direction, SELL orders are not very favored. Ahead is the ATH level 2789, which is not too trustworthy, the second level around the port in 2799-2801. With the next resistance point, pay attention to the psychological level 2810. Wish everyone a successful trading with my analysis.
Gold Roadmap==>>Short term!!!The recent CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings reports are both pivotal indexes for gold’s market reaction. A lower-than-expected JOLTS report , indicating fewer job openings, suggests possible economic slowing, which tends to support higher gold prices as investors look for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, if the Consumer Confidence Index shows strength, it can signal economic resilience, potentially reducing demand for gold as risk-on assets may become more attractive.
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) moved as I expected in ✅ yesterday's post ✅.
Gold is moving near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
According to the theory of Elliot waves , it seems that we should wait for wave 4 of Gold in the 15-minute time frame .
Also, Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect Gold to decline to at least the Support zone($2,761-$2,756) and the Uptrend line .
⚠️Note: If Gold goes over PRZ, we have to wait for $2,800(at least)⚠️
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Data is approaching: Plan short-selling strategies in advanceMarket Analysis: With the upcoming release of the “U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 26” and the “U.S. Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year for September,” we anticipate significant market volatility in gold. My personal forecast leans towards a bearish impact on gold prices, especially given the positive indicators from various economic data released in October. Thus, the likelihood of tonight’s data being bearish for gold is high. We can proactively establish a short position ahead of the data release.
Pre-Data Release Gold Trading Strategy:
Entry Range: Short gold between 2780-2782
Take-Profit Target: 2772
Stop-Loss: 2790
Risk Management and Operational Advice: Post-data release, if profits are realized, it’s advisable to take immediate profits, as the market may reverse following the data announcement. I will also provide subsequent trading strategies after the data is released, so please stay tuned for updates to adapt your trading approach.
NFP Ahead: Targeted Short Strategy for Optimal GainsMarket Insight: Great work today on capturing profits with the short trade, everyone! My VIP members and I have made impressive gains. If you're interested in continuing to secure these returns, reach out to me directly—we’re setting up for a major strategic move.
With most key economic releases for the week showing bearish outcomes, tomorrow brings one more critical release: the U.S. October Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which is highly likely to impact gold negatively. We’ll continue focusing on short positions for the remainder of this week. Looking ahead, however, as the U.S. election concludes next week, we anticipate a potential shift, at which point we’ll pivot to long strategies to capture possible upside momentum.
Current Gold Trading Strategy:
Entry Level: Short gold at 2740
Take-Profit Target: 2730
Stop-Loss: 2750
Exclusive Member Strategy Update: This strategy will only be shared once today. For tomorrow’s detailed NFP trading plan, I’ll be providing specific guidance exclusively to my VIP members. If you’d like to join and get access to tailored strategies, reach out now!
WHAT ARE GOLD GOING TO DO? HERE IS THE COMPLETE ANALYSIS 2H TFTechnical Analysis: Currently, XAU/USD is approaching the resistance level at $2790, where I believe we could see a significant selling opportunity. This level has historically acted as a barrier, and recent price action suggests that bullish momentum may be waning. If the price reaches $2790, I anticipate a potential reversal, with targets set for a downward move towards $2765. A break below $2775 would further confirm bearish sentiment, opening the door for additional downside.
Fundamental Analysis: The gold market is heavily influenced by shifts in monetary policy and global economic conditions. With the Federal Reserve signaling a potential tightening of interest rates and ongoing concerns over inflation, investors may look to liquidate positions in gold as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and market volatility could prompt a flight to safety, but if these factors stabilize, we could see a shift in sentiment favoring dollar strength. This backdrop supports the notion of a sell-off in XAU/USD from $2790 to $2765 as traders adjust their positions in response to changing economic signals. Let’s watch for these developments!
XAUUSD: Shorting Range: 2796-2807The market is currently closed. On the 2-hour chart, there are three long lower shadows, indicating strong support below. Although the MACD indicator is facing a bearish crossover, the presence of this strong support suggests a potential for a second surge in volume.
Therefore, during tomorrow's Asian and European trading sessions, if the support level in the 2780-2776 range holds, gold is likely to break above the 2790 high and test the psychological level of 2800.
Additionally, tomorrow during the U.S. session, we will have the initial jobless claims data released, which I expect to have a bearish impact on gold. Consequently, the overall trading strategy for tomorrow will be to go long first and then short later.
The trading range will be set with 2796-2807 as the high range and 2772-2767 as the low range.
What Should You Do if You Hold Long Positions Between 2770-2750?Today, influenced by negative data, gold experienced a significant drop. After completing the take profit on my short positions, I entered long trades. I believe many of you are in a similar situation, holding long positions in the 2767-2730 range, which has led to our accounts being in a trapped state.
However, after such a large decline, a market rebound is inevitable. As long as we hold our positions firmly, we can at least expect a rebound to around 2760. Additionally, tomorrow's NFP data and unemployment rate will be released, along with several other minor data points that will certainly contribute to increased market volatility.
If the price rebounds to around 2760 before the data is published, then under negative data conditions, it is likely to drop again. However, if the price does not rebound to this level, gold will not drop too much under negative data, with 2721-2712 being an acceptable range.
In this context, next week's trading will definitely focus on long positions. So, if your orders are also in a trapped state, there’s no need to worry too much. The market always has its ups and downs; stay confident and seize the opportunities for a rebound. In the end, we will achieve better results.
Gold - Time To Close Out Partial Profits!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) is now back to the upper channel resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After breaking above the plsychological $2.000 level, Gold created such an incredible rally, massively outperforming stocks and even cryptocurrencies over the past couple of months. Therefore, it is quite likely that big institutions will take some profits at the current levels.
Levels to watch: $2.700, $2.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Gold : Leveraging Double Top Pattern and Support AnalysisToday, I shared a short strategy, selling in the 2787-2791 range, with a target set at 2783-2779 and a stop loss at 2792. This is a smaller range signal.
The reason for the sell signal is the double top pattern observed on the 30-minute chart, along with the break of MA5 and MA10. I see this as a solid selling opportunity, with the main target being MA60. During the New York session yesterday, gold found support at MA60 twice, with long lower wicks, indicating strong support. Typically, longer upper wicks suggest stronger resistance, while longer lower wicks indicate stronger support.
I hope this trading tip helps everyone—don’t forget to accumulate your knowledge!
Grab Your XAUUSD Scalping Chance!Market Analysis Summary:
Buy Opportunity: Targeting the 2750 zone from the 2730-27 level.
Market Structure: Overall bullish trend, indicating potential upward movement.
Short-Term Caution: Formation of lower lows may lead to a sell-off down to 2690.
Upcoming Events: NFP report is on the horizon, which could introduce market volatility.
Key Points to Consider:
Monitor the 2730-27 zone for entry signals.
Watch for price action around 2690 for potential reversals.
Be prepared for fluctuations around the NFP release.
Stay informed and adjust your strategies accordingly!
Gold is in the bullish direction after correcting the supportHello Traders
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I went short Gold at 2735.83. It just happended....!
I really was not on the front foot to Short gold or silver so early in the week, it just happened because a report came in on tradingview news that the middle east situation is contained more so than open war-fare and the Gold chart was begging to be shorted because there was no buying and the gold-ghost was taking a break resting under a moving average. Sorry buddy, your shorted!
Will see how it goes. Not sure what economic news is on today in the USA but I will soon find out.
Other Long trades I am on include GBPUSD, GBPCAD is looking to really break out in the Monday sessions and I am also Short on AUDUSD which I think is starting to become in-the-money. Have a good trading day and remember 'greed normally means losing money not making it'. Chris
XAUUSD: Short In The 2780-2800 RangeYesterday, gold prices experienced a significant surge, reaching a high of 2790, which is very close to the psychological level of 2800. In the near term, bullish sentiment is likely to continue probing this important threshold until prices approach 2800. However, it's important to note that due to this substantial increase, market indicators have begun to show divergence, and there is a high probability of a deeper pullback in the short term. From a technical standpoint, the expected pullback should occur in the range of 2770 to 2760. Only after repairing these indicators is there a likelihood for another price increase. Thus, the high point near 2790 will certainly not be a singular peak; there should at least be one more opportunity to revisit this price level.
Additionally, this week is an important data week that occurs once a month, and market volatility on Thursday and Friday will likely intensify. Regarding the data being released this Friday, I believe it poses a significant downside risk for gold. Therefore, if you are holding short positions and find yourself trapped, as long as your account balance is sufficient, there is no need to worry excessively. You can navigate market fluctuations through hedging strategies or multiple directional trades, making it entirely feasible to extricate yourself from this predicament.
Gold uptrend channelThis is the ascending channel of gold. According to this channel, we can make a decision. Sell positions are not reasonable at all right now.
But if we see a red candle from the top of the channel, we can open a sell position to the bottom of the channel with a reliable stop loss.
Strategic Short Positioning at ResistanceAnalysis: Today’s U.S. ADP employment data revealed a significant downside surprise, typically bearish for gold. However, gold prices have held steady, underscoring the strong fundamental support from factors such as geopolitical tensions and the lack of selling pressure. The market's reluctance to react sharply suggests the path of least resistance for gold remains upward. Despite this, gold sits at elevated levels, and while today’s data may not have triggered an immediate reaction, there’s an expectation of selling pressure as the U.S. trading session opens. Thus, our strategy focuses on initiating short positions to capitalize on potential pullbacks.
Trade Strategy:
Entry: Short gold between 2778-2780
Take-Profit Target: 2770
Mindset: Remain confident in the short strategy, stay composed, and await the gradual absorption of bearish data. Execute with discipline to optimize returns.
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position
Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore.
To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe.
Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade:
1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert
Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching.
2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long
While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator.
3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why?
Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher?
4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High?
Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note.
5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries
Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits.
6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution
Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check.
7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging
There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended.
8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic
Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing.
The Bottom Line
Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution.
If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
XAUUSD, 15-MINUTES TIMEFRAME CHART XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading side ways within the last couple of hour.the pair moved 2770-2788
Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a sell limit order at 2,788.
Set your stop loss at 2,795. below the previous low ($8.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 2,768. ($20.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
Possible gold Out lookAs in my previous anylisis i have told that Gold can rally upwards and it has broken its 4H channel and made a rally above Gold has performed like an Ubriddeled horse yesterday but it seems like the buyers have got exhausted as price has began to drop after taking resistance over 2780 level of physiological resistance also the confluence for predicting a big drop is price has made a rising wedge pattern which can be a possibility to drop the price of Gold in todays trading session on the other hand if price goes More Upwards it can stall over 2800 price level which is also a physiological resistance level also we have a fair value Gap and an order block of 4H on 2740 price level so technically i am waiting to buy gold from above 2740 level of support
Gold: It's Time To FallAfter the Asian session opened, gold initially dropped but found support around 2739, consolidating for an hour before a direct rise. The MA5 and MA10 support levels remained strong, but with these now broken, it's likely time to aim for MA60.
I’ve taken significant sell positions above 2750 and plan to hold until the 2747-2742 range.