We've only just begun IWMIWM, so which percentage down will it wind up being? 86% perhaps? So many waves, so many trend lines which are "right on", and amazing actually, how accurate and right on they are over such a time period.
IWM trade ideas
Growth Prospects? - Much work to doInvestors may benefit from keeping an eye on this relationship of IWM to Gold. Small caps, represented by the the Russell 2000 index ( AMEX:IWM ), are generally well-regarded and in favor when growth prospects are good; gold on the other hand is typically considered a defensive store of value. I consider that early 2018 period, when things were generally clicking pretty well in markets, to be a very "key" level and one well worth monitoring. A confirming bullish trigger would be seeing this IWM/Gold relationship break out of the present downward channel, and getting back to and through that key level. Until then, when assessing risk / reward in this 'whipsaw' environment, investors may be better served by exercising continued caution and selectively.
Opening (Margin): IWM April 6th/June 16th Double Die... for a 57.79 debit.
Comments: Doing something a little funky here -- a double diagonal.
The best way to look at this setup is by breaking it down into two aspects: (a) a long call diagonal, with the back month at the +90 delta strike, the front at the -30; and (b) a long put diagonal, with the back month at the -90 delta strike, the front at the -30.
I tend to manage each aspect separately, taking profit on the winning side, while simultaneously looking to reduce cost basis on the losing one, so it's important to know where my break evens are for a given side.
Long call diagonal aspect:
39.42 cost basis, 169.42 break even, 44 wide.
Long put diagonal aspect:
18.37 cost basis, 170.63 break even, 25 wide.
Opening (IRA): IWM April/May 176/169 Short Put LadderComments:
Starting to deploy at intervals into second quarter expiries, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I'd prefer weakness and higher IV, naturally, but am not getting it in the short term.
Received a 1.79 credit for the April 21st 176; a 1.75 credit for the May 19th 169.
IWM: 170-172 Soft?Short idea.
Since the beginning of 2023, IWM has put in a lower low on the daily indicating that support at 170-172 is soft, and the trend of higher lows established by the Oct swing low seems to be broken. Tough April so far -- currently trading below the 20D / 50D / 200D.
The distribution that price is trading in right now is support, but I think 170-172 gets softer with every test.
Short targets: 175 / 176
Profit targets: 172 / 170 / 168 / 163
Trade invalidated > 178
IWM: Russell 2000 ETF-Elliot Wave PathAMEX:IWM
IWM, The Russell 2000 in the middle of an ABC Zig-Zag Corrective Wave Sequence.
This Zig-Zag is retracing the upmove from the '03 low to '21 high.
As it stands now, the "A" wave has completed 5 waves down, and "B" wave flat looks to be complete.
This suggests that we are already in or about to enter the final 5 waves down for Wave "C".
Looking at a few other indicators, I'm expecting that this "C" Wave will extend 100% of the "A" wave's length.
This would take IWM to the 117 USD area.
On an Elliot-Basis, the correction should terminate somewhere within the larger degree Wave 4, and this 117 USD level is right in the middle of it.
The 117 USD level is also right in between the '18 and Covid lows, and is also in line with my non-EW Median Line target, and bear flag target. (screenshots below)
Short it.
Fat_Fat
IWM: Week of April 10Projections are bullish for IWM.
We also have a fairly bullish reference target at 175.85.
This also makes sense because we are pushing the low 13% probability range on the 1 hour chart.
The high probability targets for next week are:
176.19 and 172.56.
The highest probability target is 176.19. This would be my initial target on an IWM play next week. The ideal setup would be a gap down of course, so let's see what we are given on Monday.
Otherwise, those are my thoughts and the official targets are in the chart above.
Will do a real time update on Monday.
Safe trades everyone!
Smalls B4 MegasIn both 08 crisis & pandemic crash, small caps consistently going up for several months were the proof that the bears were done.
That has not happened yet for this recession! Notice small caps are at best going sideways, & starting to trend further down, while ^RU50 Mega caps (like XLG) think the worst is behind them & Bulls saying don't miss the party.
But it's not the end of the Bear market. If Main street is still struggling, & we know & see it is all around us, then Wall street is just having a minor rally that will smack them back to reality soon enough.
Momentum doesn't lie, so watch the Volume & trends!
IWM Russell 2000 RUT affected by the SIVB collapse! Puts to buy!After the last RUT Russell 2000 Price Target was Perfectly reached:
Now you need to know that many of the Russell 2K companies will be impacted by the SIVB collapse.
Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB , potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors.
Silicon Valley Bank did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies.
With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits.
IWM puts considering buying:
2023-4-21 expiration date
$169 Strike Price
$3.65 Premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
