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CATERPILLAR INC CEDEAR EA 20 REP 1 COM USD1CC

CATERPILLAR INC CEDEAR EA 20 REP 1 COM USD1

21,475ARSD
−125−0.58%
At close at 22:06 GMT
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CAT trade ideas

CAT is On Its Last LifeCaterpillar is known for being a global economic bellwether, and considering it recent stock performance you'd think economic activity is alive and well. Unfortunately, this is not the case. In fact, despite CAT "beating" its recent Q3 earnings estimates (which rely heavily on accounting gimmicks), the global mining and construction company reported that all is not well while lowering its forward guidance. Chairman and C.E.O Doug Oberhelman said "economic weakness throughout much of the world persists and, as a result, most of our end markets remain challenged." He further went on to say, "in North America, the market has an abundance of used construction equipment, rail customers have substantial number of idle locomotives, and around the world there are a significant number of idle mining trucks." It's important to know that global sales have contracted for nearly three straight years, and trouble with their business began once the massive commodity bubble began to pop in 2011. CAT v Deutsche Bank Tracked Commodities The fundamentals prove negative for the stock going forward. At 47.93x trailing 12M earnings, the stock is grossly inflated over its 5-year average of 16.93 - where many of the company's industry peers currently reside. We currency foresee further weakness throughout the global economy, especially in China. Although, the Chinese government is fight tooth and nail, running deep monthly budget deficits, we do not expect China to regain its previous growth expansion before a financial crisis breaks out - PBoC boots net liquidity to the financial sector by 1.06 trillion CNY, or a 2,022 percent increase YoY. The People’s Bank of China has increased net liquidity to the financial sector by a staggering +2,022% year-to-date, to 1.06 trillion CNY. If you want to learn more follow @Macro_View on TWTR and go to macroview.co to get on our waiting list to subscribe.
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by MacroView_Research
CAT dont mess with the CAT it has clawsOminously similar to the prelude to the 2008 mess. Same levels and trends everywhere, all indicators, ready for the next bottom build too. CAT does not like to be overbought, consistent, trustworthy, sells off everytime. World economic indicator. Europe bank stress test friday could be the next Lehman brothers moment, at least one bank goes under, and who is not too big to fail? The tip off was a few weeks ago the real estate loans failure, that was averted, at least in the media. The stress test will show all where they stand. Commercial real estate loans most at risk. Commercial office space is down, vacancies high all over, online stores taking market share, amazon, etc. And bonds... people will be asked to get less than they expected, or how will they fund the payouts, with underfunded liabilities? Not saying for sure, but this could be the first exposure to the results, unintended though they may be, of way, way too much QE, avoiding any pain whatsoever of the 2008 mess that still has not been cleaned up, and negative rates should be our best clue, negative rates, are you kidding me? Makes no sense, just no sense. But as long as the market keeps going up from all corporations with no growth and higher EPS because of generational changes to costs structures, well, the day is coming to reset, and the reset button could be pressed friday. In fact, if they hold the results until after the close of euro markets friday, that is your clue to very bad numbers, and they would want to announce while their markets are closed over the weekend, so they can do some damage control before the markets open again Monday morning. And if they wait until after the USA markets close, well, then its a wrap its bad, very bad. I am sure there will be a cover up or delay of some kind if it is bad, just like they have avoided the bad news all these 8 years. The key market leaders are all screaming the same story as CAT, transports, etc. and euro banks have not come back since brexit vote, even down further ahead of friday. Wake up people, sorry bulls, bears will wake from their semi slumber and roar very soon. Currencies acting frisky too. IMO
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by claydoctor
Caterpillar: Bearish Trend LikelyMost time horizon charts for-CAT are very negative. Here are my top ten reasons why: 1. There has been a sagging in price structure. 2. Sell Fractal (10-21-2016). 3. The top middle indicator is a 13 interval momentum of phase energy, and this is negative, below the zero line. 4. The top indicator is a 34 interval momentum reading of the CAT-price (OHLC /4). This is weak, below zero, heading lower. 5. Chop (under chart) is in the heading lower, indicating a STRONG DOWN MOVE is likely to develop. It is not a sell signal yet, but I think it will be. 6. Chop zone (under chop) is red, indicating a downward trend. This is a sell signal. 7. The red conversion line of the Ichimoku Cloud is heading lower. This is a sell signal. 8. The black baseline line of the Ichimoku Cloud is heading lower. This is a sell signal. 9. Prices are trading below the Ichimoku Cloud conversion line and baseline. This is a sell signal . 10. Prices have sagged into the cloud. This is a signal that the up-trend has stalled. Caterpillar is set to release its earnings today. The setup is suggesting lower prices. Note: the daily chart indicates the forward projection (looking out 26 days), as negative. On a one hour chart the price structure is BELOW the previous 233 interval moving average. Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
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by 649bruno
1
CAT v DXYEvery time CAT reaches the overbought money flow region it declines. Also, noting a funky head and shoulders pattern at each previous low, indicates the thinking of the big money. Dollar up Cat down, see the chart. And IMO world currencies are doing their level best at deflating their own, result, they are ganging up on the dollar, or the dollar, our weak international currency position, just goes up and up, hurting markets. DXY forming a leap out of the range, and trending up short term at least. IF Brexit news keeps up, pound will weaken even further, stressing euro economy and banks. British govt knows it, fears it, and is trying to compromise what the people voted for, could result in unrest of those you voted for it. Blue vertical line is the us election, have this on all my charts. Possible down to lower trend line of channel until nov 8th, and then???
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by claydoctor
CAT about to get scratchedI'm bearish on the sector in general as well as the company after some interesting research from Hedgeye. I think the recent rally was a gift from the market gods, and am simply looking to fire my shots. RSI momentum is negative while the share price failed to break above 50% fib retracement level. Possible 50 day ma acting as over head resistance as well. I'm buying a 12month put now and will add to it if stock breaks below 81.00.
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by KlendathuCap
Caterpillar technicals point to downside riskCAT reached new annual highs last week but failed to break above an important technical level at $83.90 (50% Fib level in chart). A negative divergence has taken shape in the daily RSI as prices retreat from a trend line resistance tested on 17 August. So long as prices remain below $85.30 (current projected trend line level), we may see CAT correct down towards $80.90 by next week. $77.40/$78.00 is also a possible target if such a correction takes place next month.
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by ABRAK75