2/1/23 - FCX Daily (Freeport)FCX is a good company if your a copper and chips follower. I want to post this to see if the H&S plays out over time..... If so Im a buyer.
FCX trade ideas
Possible 12 Bagger on FCX Puts$35 strike May 19 expiration puts are going for $1.03 right now and I’m thinking of grabbing 10 at $1.00 a piece for a total cost of $1000.
Reasons to go short:
FCX at upper bound of downtrend channel
FCX at horizontal resistance from May 2021
FCX Time cycle suggests top forming within 2 weeks (this trade might be early)
Weekly copper chart at 2008 crash level, POC, and various other bearish arguments, see charts below
Risks:
Downtrend channel could be massive bull flag that we’re about to break out of
Price dropping 32% in 4 months is a big ask, let alone 50%.
Copper chart 1:
Copper chart 2:
Main chart before rearranged by publishing process:
FCX will take a hair cut 2023Whenever yoy here these so called advisor , Start to publicly recommend a sector to invest in , that means it's time to short. They (Institutions ) usually take a position 30% cheaper before they even mention it and by the time they do speak on it they are unloading why you (Retailers) buy the ASK.
That yellow trendline u see is a downtrend starting from 2008
In the next few weeks expect FCX to trade in the Range of 37-45 to round that right shoulder off. Earnings is JAN 23 wink
Industrial Metals: Copper the king of green metals!I have a long-term positive outlook on the industrial metal sector given the increase in demand towards the electrification of the world.
I expect a dampening in shorter-term prospect however a renewed surge to fresh record high's in the new year by miners around the world, most notably from Central and South America as well as Africa.
This will lead to copper gaining momentum due to electrification of the world (Less dependency on Russia). Massive amounts of new copper is needed in the years ahead for the power grids to cope, we are already seeing producers like Chile, the world’s biggest supplier of copper, struggling to meet production targets. China’s slowdown is viewed as temporary and the economic boost through stimulus measures is likely to focus on infrastructure and electrification—both areas that will require industrial metals.
I have chosen Freeport-McMoRan Inc. as my trade idea, often called Freeport. Freeport is an American mining company based in the Freeport-McMoRan Center, in Phoenix, Arizona. The company is the world's largest producer of molybdenum, is a major copper producer and operates the world's largest gold mine, the Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia. FCX is looking strong with a strong financial situation and growing Inventories at good levels. Copper demand is increasing, electrification around the world will continue into the future.
FCX - Another Simple ShortFCX appears to be resuming the dminant trend into the next wave down after falling out of this corrective ascending channel.
Topped at log 0.382 retracement from the top - very typical for a weak correction connecting 2 impulsive waves.
Also topped printing a shakeout reversal pattern through 4H200MA and also fell through 4H50MA to print a heavy momentum candle to confirm trend change.
It may drift or fall - its hitting the 50DMA as support today so could be a bounce perhaps to re-test the lower trendline.
But this one has a long way down (I think).
Not advice.
FCXA Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart
FCXThe technical pattern is easy to understand the initial shock to lower prices in the $34 area bottom and the bounce off the bottom and now we must digest.
The fundamental analysis is also very easy to understand, with recession we see lower copper demand and hence prices.
B ut we are dealing with the largest copper miner in the world and we should have expected the drop and when the turn came we should have bought. We should ride the trend until the MA crosses over.
Freeport McMoran Strong Future PositionFreeport-McMoRan's relatively strong position
significant producing assets in the U.S.
and Indonesia and expansion opportunities
puts it in a somewhat stronger position. In short,
the outlook for copper prices is good
They are forecasting steady annual sales growth.
2023 is expected to be an even stronger year than 2022, and
2024 is expected to be weaker but still stronger than 2021.
This provides a runway for significant sales improvement
for the company and continuous income for the company in the upcoming years
FCX:longterm upchannel & shortterm downchannel; bounce soonFCX is the largest copper producer & copper is very impt to the economy. It is making a longterm upchannel & a shortterm downchannel & the 2 will cross path soon at their lows somewhere below 40.
Below 40 will be a great place to start accumulating & then trade the range between 40 & 50.
Geopolitical tensions & China lockdown may drive price below 40 temporarily but demand will soon kick in.not trading advice
FCX broke out of the cup and handle patternNYSE:FCX broke out of the cup and handle pattern and is now flagging above the neckline. Long the break out of the flag or any pullbacks toward the 50 MA, anticipated price action and targets are shown on the chart. Stop daily close below 46$.
Hit the like button please if you find this useful :)
This is only my own view and not financial advice, do your own analysis before buying or selling
Happy Trading!
