MSTR Long on Daily SqueezeMSTR is showing a nicely formed daily squeeze that is waiting to fire to the upside. The breakout has started with the recent rise in BTC price. I expect this to continue to the upside.
MSTRD trade ideas
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Price Surged Over 60% in NovemberMicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Price Surged Over 60% in November
According to the MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) stock chart:
→ At the start of November, the stock price was around $244;
→ Last Friday, it closed just below $395;
→ This represents a more than 60% increase in MSTR’s price over the month, making it one of the top performers on the U.S. stock market;
→ At its peak on 21 November, the stock traded above $520, reflecting a 115% surge in just three weeks.
Two key drivers supported the bullish sentiment:
1. Bitcoin holdings by MicroStrategy.
According to Benzinga, the company owns nearly 2% of the global Bitcoin supply, a figure projected to rise to 4% by 2023. The current surge in BTC/USD towards $100,000 has significantly increased MicroStrategy's value. Co-founder Michael Saylor stated that the company earns an average of $500 million daily from its Bitcoin investments.
2. Market capitalisation milestones.
In November, MicroStrategy's market capitalisation exceeded $100 billion for the first time. On this note, Seeking Alpha highlighted the potential for MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index. This could prompt large funds tracking the index to purchase MSTR shares for their portfolios.
Technical analysis of MSTR’s price chart indicates that since mid-September, price fluctuations have formed an ascending channel (marked in blue).
The decline from point A to B appears overly steep to be classified as a strict correction within the uptrend, which followed the achievement of extreme overbought conditions (visible on the RSI indicator).
While the stock rebounded upwards upon reaching the lower boundary of the channel (point B), the question remains whether the bulls can replicate November’s extraordinary success.
Buyers should exercise caution based on bearish price action around psychological levels:
→ The price failed to hold above $500.
→ On 22 November, the $450 level acted as resistance.
Meanwhile, according to TipRanks:
→ All 8 surveyed analysts recommend buying MSTR stock.
→ The average price target for MSTR is $494 within the next 12 months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
MSTR Descending Channel + Support TestMSTR has been trending down since late last week, but is now coming into an important area of support around $370. There's good potential for bulls to hold here which should lead to a breakout above the channel and a move back up towards $490-$500. If it can't hold $370, that's not great but it would still have potential trendline support below along with previous consolidation from earlier in the month.
Bullish for now IMO, but not so much if it breaks below $370. Watching for a trend break in either direction.
$MSTR BULLTRAPThis chart highlights a significant move in MicroStrategy (MSTR) with key levels, patterns, and possible future price action. Here's a detailed analysis for TradingView:
Technical Analysis:
Historical Price Move (3 Months Ago):
Price started at $100 three months ago and surged to a high of $543.60, marking an impressive 429.44% (379.39%) gain.
Key Levels:
High: $543.60 (marked as 1 on the Fibonacci retracement).
Fibonacci Levels:
0.786: $453.87 (currently acting as a key resistance).
0.618: $383.43 (close to the current price; could act as support or resistance depending on price action).
0.5: $333.95 (next major support).
0.382: $284.47 (further downside support).
0.236: $223.25 (demand zone).
Recent Events:
On 21st November (Thursday), the price hit its peak and began a significant pullback.
A Bull Trap occurred, catching buyers off guard as the price reversed sharply after the rally.
Market Structure:
Multiple BOS (Break of Structure) points indicate bullish momentum earlier, but the pullback suggests a shift in sentiment.
Current price action shows consolidation near the 0.618 Fibonacci level, suggesting a decision point for the market.
Demand Zones:
Near $100: Strong demand zone where the rally initiated.
Around $223-$284: Potential zones of interest for buyers if the price retraces further.
Trade Ideas:
Bullish Scenario:
If the price holds above the 0.618 level ($383.43) and breaks above $453.87 (0.786 level), it could retest the highs near $543.60.
Bearish Scenario:
A breakdown below $383.43 could trigger a move towards $333.95 or even $284.47, aligning with the Fibonacci and previous demand zones.
Key Considerations:
Watch for volume spikes to confirm direction.
Monitor macroeconomic events or Bitcoin movements (as MicroStrategy holds significant Bitcoin reserves).
MSTR PL dot push and refreshThe essential element of the Drummond Geometry is the PL dot (Point and Line). This dot is a short term moving average that is calculated as the average of the last three candles averages of High, Low and Close. In Drumond Geometry, the open plays no role.
PL dot = Avg(Avg(H1,L1,C1) + Avg(H2,L2,C2) + Avg(H3,L3,C3))
The key difference with other moving averages is the fact that in the Drummond Geometry, the result of the above calculation is shifted by one bar in the future, thus one knows in advance where the PL dot is for the upcoming bar.
The PL dot is very responsive. When there is a trend, then the PL dot is sloping in the diretion of the trend (up or down) whereas if the PL dot is horizontal we have a congestion condition in the market.
The PL dot offen sits at the top or the bottom of the bar, pushing the price up or down in a so called "PL dot push". In the MSTR weekly view, one can see how the PL dot was support since September and was pushing the price up until now.
The trade one could have taken is to long around the PL dot and put a stop loss couple of point below. The target would be first the Envelope Top and if the PL dot had "sufficient strength" then the final target would have been in the Area 6 (Exhaust zone). One can see how the exhaust zone acted as resistance and made price go back to the PL dot for a "PL dot refresh". Thus when price strays away from the Pl dot, the second pattern to trade would be the "PL dot refresh".
Imagine the dot as container of energy which waxes and wanes depending on the curcomstances. So when price travels away from the PL dot, it tends to "refresh" itself and confir wheter there is still energy for the move to continue.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock OverviewTimeframes Observed:
4-Hour Chart (Left):
The stock experienced a significant pullback after reaching a previous high of $543.
Current price action is consolidating within the highlighted yellow liquidity zone between approximately $328 and $390.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are clearly marked, with key levels at:
38.2% ($415): Indicates minor resistance.
50% ($439): A critical mid-level that could act as a pivot point.
61.8% ($463): A strong resistance zone if the stock retraces upwards.
The stock is hovering near the 23.6% retracement level ($383), which suggests buyers are defending this area.
10-Day Chart (Right):
The longer-term perspective shows a similar liquidity zone around $328 to $390, suggesting this area is critical for price stability and buyer accumulation.
The previous high ($543) is marked as a key resistance level, with expectations of a potential retest if the bullish momentum returns.
The Fibonacci extensions indicate upside targets, with a 1.618 extension at $667 and a 2.618 extension at $872, if bullish momentum sustains.
Key Insights:
Support Zones:
The stock is currently trading within a strong liquidity zone, which aligns with both timeframes, suggesting a solid base of support.
The $328 level is identified as a critical buy zone, as highlighted on the 10-day chart.
Resistance Levels:
The $383-$390 range (23.6% retracement) is being tested and could act as a pivot point for a potential upward move.
If momentum picks up, the next resistance levels to watch are $415 (38.2%), $439 (50%), and $463 (61.8%).
Market Behavior:
On the 4-hour chart, the stock is consolidating, showing potential signs of accumulation for a move higher.
On the 10-day chart, the stock is holding its bullish structure, indicating the recent pullback might be a healthy retracement within a larger upward trend.
Outlook:
Bullish Scenario: If the stock continues to build support in the current range and breaks above $390, it could target the higher Fibonacci levels, eventually leading to a retest of $543 and possibly new highs.
Bearish Scenario: If the stock fails to hold the liquidity zone around $328-$390, a deeper correction could occur, with further downside risks.
Microstrategy in Satoshis Nice retrace in sats after coming down from lofty heights. That MSTU pump was nuts. Where is the next higher swing high? Also, MSTU/MSTR is crossing 50% to parity between them. Look out for the 1 -test. Sat target above is a prior swing low, so the ratio should go for that. Everything according to plan
$MSTR looks like it double bottomed on the weekly chartI believe MSTR completed its entire weeks expected move to the downside today. Therefore, should be a gap up with new shorts underwater to start the day then head upwards tomorrow and if so, I expect further upside on the shortened trading day Friday.
Lower low on RSI with higher price and retracement to golden fibLooks to me like MSTR is going up from here, retraced to golden fib,
RSI has a lower low (White line on RSI) with an inverted price showing a higher high (Orange Line in same time frame on chart, building a wedge). The RSI is also about to turn and other indicators show bullish moment coming in strong.
From a macro perspective BTC is about to run and their BTC per share is more attractive now then it has been in weeks. MSTR to escape velocity once it breaks out of this wedge
$MSTR Analysis... Possible Scenario!This could be usable... I guess!😊
If we consider the length of wave A in calculating the end of wave C, we can establish a relationship between them, justifying the end of wave C. In this scenario, the current retracement is expected to continue to the $338 level, representing 61.8% of wave A!
Let's see how it goes!... Cheers
NASDAQ:MSTR #MSTR
MSTR is Back To Dotcom Boom Levels...Finally. But At What Cost?Self-explanatory chart. I called a major top for Bitcoin and Microstrategy back in 2022, detailing the possibility of much lower prices for both.
This ended up being correct, but only in the short term. Since then, both BTC and Microstrategy have surprised me to the upside. It's incredible that only now has MSTR reached a valuation it has not seen since the year 2000. Look at that volume! Mania levels.
Microstrategy now owns 386,700 Bitcoin, almost 2% of the entire 21 Million maximum supply. This is triple the supply ownership from 2022, when it was just over 100,000. That's triple the risk. What could go wrong?
It's impossible to know when this could all go up in flames, but I'm certainly ready to watch when it happens. These kinds of price moves and buying behavior are not sustainable. It is also starting to rub more and more Bitcoiners the wrong way - "this is not how it was meant to be!"
Meanwhile, Saylor continues to enrichen himself and shareholders. Not to mention, there is now at least one leveraged MSTR ETF. Again, what could go wrong? Some people have made a killing on this though. Congrats to them. Now it's time to take at least some profit. On the above chart, a breakdown from that orange trendline should indicate a top.
Let's see how it all unfolds. If price manages to hold up here, perhaps there will be at least one more leg up.
As always, this is meant for speculative purposes only. As shown throughout my work on this site, it's really easy to be wrong. I just find the guesswork part of the fun. Thanks for reading!
-Victor Cobra
