#NFLX Trading A Wave 4 PullbackIN this update we review the recent price action in Netflix and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
•Past performance not indicative of future results
NFLXD trade ideas
NFLX ANALYSIS: NETFLIX ENDING BULL SEASON?In mid-October 2022, the NFLX share price was about $250; in those days we wrote the post “Is Netflix starting a new bull season?”. Since then, the NFLX stock has more than doubled in price. But after the publication of yesterday's news, everything has changed, hence the headline.
The company added nearly 6 million subscribers in the quarter, with a forecast of 1.9 million. As of the end of June, Netflix had 238.4 million subscribers worldwide. This is positive news.
Some negative news: the decline in revenue. While 8.3bn was expected, the actual number is 8.1bn. “While we have made steady progress this year, we still have a lot of work to do to accelerate our growth again,” the company said in a quarterly letter to shareholders.
However, the most serious argument lies in the behavior of the price on the NFLX chart.
On the eve of the earnings report, we witnessed an increase in the price on rumors of an increase in subscribers. The price of NFLX was close to USD 500, but fell almost 9% post-market after the news. So today the trading session is likely to open below USD 440 per share. This abrupt change in market behavior provides an argument to suggest that the months-long rally has reached a culminating phase. A surge in volatility will help large stockholders take profits — perhaps they see Netflix's difficulties with the strike of actors and authors, increased competition, restrictions on the prospects for further growth.
The median line of the rising channel is now seen as the nearest support, the breakdown of which will confirm the change in market sentiment.
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Netflix: Are you still watching…? 👀Well, the question should rather be: “Are you still climbing?” Indeed, Netflix still has got some room left to expand wave 1 in turquoise further upwards, although the next top can be placed anytime now as well. As soon as this is done and dusted, the share should turn downwards to develop wave 2 in turquoise before the next stage of ascent can start. However, there is a 34% chance that Netflix could continue to climb higher than primarily anticipated. In that case, we would expect the share to already develop wave alt.3 in turquoise, meaning that wave alt.1 and alt.2 in turquoise would be finished by now.
NFLX ready for $500?It was trading nicely in this wedge formation but it broke out before earnings. I was hoping it would trade inside until earnings but I guess it wanted to start filling in the gap it had. Still has room to fill up all the way to $507.57. Good earnings report with huge subscriber count could push it to fill the gap. If it reports lower subscriber count then we could see a huge drop maybe back to $430 range.
$NFLX approaching a topI do think there is likely a small move higher coming next week prior to topping. I'm looking for one last push higher into $457, at which time I think is a good time to go short, because after that, the move down should be a big one.
Most likely scenario IMO is that we break the previously lows in the $170ish range and form new lows down between $139-$111 before bottoming.
All of this should play out within the next 6-9 months.
Let's see what happens.
NFLX Netflix Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold NFLX here:
or reentered here:
Then analyzing the options chain of NFLX Netflix prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 450usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-7-21,
for a premium of approximately $16.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Netflix not ready for what's next Many investors of NFLX aren't prepared for what is coming next for them. This B wave rally has been amazing and you could have profited, but usually how it goes is most just keep holding and never take the gains. I learned my lesson before on this also. These B waves will ruin accounts... It looks like earnings have already brought the stock down over 6% now we will keep seeing more and more downside.
NFLX builds more momentum LONG for nowNFLX has been trending up for three weeks. If the trend is getting old it is now showing.
Based on a set of two anchored VWAP bands originating June 1 and June 15, Netflix is
breaking through VWAP bands from the lower -2 standard deviation lines to the +2 standard
deviation lines and nearly the third upper deviation lines. This is a clear and convincing
VWAP breakout with buyers in overwhelming control Trading volume today is about 4 or 5
times the running average and about 1M. Volume support for price action is obvious.
The dual time frame RSI shows 1 hr TF RSI (blue line) shot up crossed over the daily TF RSI
(black line) and is retreating a bit. The daily RS is below 80 and still trending up.
The MACD shows a classical bullish momentum pattern with the lines well above the histograms.
Overall NFLX has the risk of overextension and possible topping with a fade afterwards.
The mass index indicator shows a value into the reversal zone but until the value rises and the
drops to 26.5, the trend is still intact. I will take a long trade here, hoping for a quick
5% ROI between now and the end of the week and about 50% on an options trade with
a strike of $500 expiring July 28th which I will close upon a confirmed reversal and use
the profits realized therefrom to buy a put option to take a ride down.
Potential Double Top on $NFLXDouble top setup on NASDAQ:NFLX with divergence occurring on the daily chart. Very interesting setup with earnings approaching. Few gaps (boxes) below the 420 area. Would love to see indecision candles prior to the earnings report. Hopefully the report acts as a catalyst for this setup.
NFLX testing significant overhead resistanceNetflix Inc. (NFLX) testing significant overhead resistance, able to absorb monthly buying pressures. From here (NFLX) can fall back to channel support eliciting losses of 15 - 20% over the following 2 - 3 months. A settlement below a near-term channel bottom would be the signal of this downward trajectory. Inversely, a weekly settlement above the significant overhead resistance occurs, gains of 20% would be anticipated over the following 2 - 5 months time.
NETFLIX is heavily bullish. Buy this pullback.Netflix is trading inside a Channel Up for more than 1 year and is headed for the historic January 20th 2022 Gap of 508.45.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Buy on the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 508.45 (Resistance 1 and January 2022 gap).
2. 621.00 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) resembles the late August 2022 consolidation that led to a Higher High. Another bullish indication.
Please like, follow and comment!!
NFLX - Chart Reading 7.18.2023Howdy Traders!
A large break-out for NASDAQ:NFLX is right around the corner. With earnings on the way, a 8-9% move can be expected. In this chart reading, NASDAQ:NFLX has created this wedge, and as of now, it seems as if it has broken through the top resistance. As long as it doesn't break downwards, the price target currently is set to $498.29.
Bona Fortuna!
NFLX - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Strong rising trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹Between support 365 and resistance 480.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
NFLX holding on, but for how long?NASDAQ:NFLX had a run after finally finding a way to stop and monetize password sharing via an ad-based subscription. Now, where does it go from here? In this content war, where companies are jockeying for the best scripts and distribution rights, NFLX still has a leg up being the first one with legacy viewers. NYSE:DIS has the most content, but it still faces a challenge balancing the profit of that segment compared to NFLX.
Bullish Case - The trendline is a little sharp, but it is still holding. The price is trapped against resistance but can retest 450 after breaking the 442.47 resistance. It looks like a scallop breakout, and this should stay on path. The worst-case scenario would be consolidation to gain support before the retest.
Bearish Case - A double top is ready to break down, yet bulls are still holding onto this weak trendline in hope. When we break down from 411.91, we can test 400. There's no way to consolidate because the measured move provides a better risk-to-reward ratio.
Conclusion - This is looking for support. It could find it, but the trendline is too far up. Playing it based on the breakout is the best way to trade here. Getting in early is a guessing game, let the chart be your guide.
Bullish above - 442.47
Bearish below - 411.91
NFLX AnalysisPrice failed to meet the final target at 458.48 last week. Price is showing signs of change of character here with an increase in volume. I'd expect price to make a UTAD this week according to the Wyckoff schematic to take out the final target and trapping the bulls before heading lower.
NFLX Entry, Volume, Target, Stop, ResistanceWhen price clears: 379.43
With daily volume greater than 9.4M
Target: 452 area
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 355.22 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward.
Resistance: 396 area
This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
i.wish for a pullback to $350 before going up to $550TipRanks: Based on 35 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Netflix in the last 3 months. The average price target is $411.74 with a high forecast of $535.00 and a low forecast of $250.00.
Expected Move: +/- $40
ATR: $13
Swing:
As long as 414 is its support, my short-term price target is $483.
Otherwise, NFLX may drop to $390 - $380.
Day-trading:
As long as $445.5 is its resistance, I'm expecting a drop to $430
Otherwise, my upside target is $450
