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Context posts; Broad USD bull thesis. (Please read this before making cliche USD objections. I've covered them in the main USD bull thesis). Bottoming strategies examples for context on the style of forecast move. Both of these reversals had a similar confluence of signals. When this confluence of signals forms we commonly are about to see bear trend...

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Massive surge in the Yen at resistance and then a follow through drop. The likelihood of a strong reaction in the 160 was discussed in the post below: Question is, what happens now? If that's a true reversal then we're going to see crush and re-crush action in this. Consistently lower lows. Sharp rallies. Crushing new lows. However, if we make a low in...

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Had an eye on this one for a while and there've been a few points I thought we might be making a high in this but so far taken no action on it (Which has proven wise). Now we have a strong confluence of sell signals, though. We have the potential AB=CD topping patterns and this comes in at the 1.61 head fake level. See strategy info here: 1.61 head fake is...

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This is a very simple observation analysis. If you'd like to read a more in depth and back dated analysis on why BTC might make a big drop, see the two posts below. Here's the simple observation. One anyone can make. In all instances we can see in the last 10 years of BTC trading, when there's been a big bearish engulfing candle at the top of a parabolic...

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Buying a MSTR puts with 1 - 2 months on them with strikes scatted from 1200 - 1000. We've recently hit the 4.23 - which is a very common move for the end of an extreme extension. Coupled with the various possible rug setups in crypto I fancy the odds of a big reaction here.

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I want to start this post by sharing with you my deep analysis of SPX reactions to previous BTC halving events to show you how we know the only way is up for SPX after the halving. The halving is said to be a bullish event for BTC. In this analysis I'll show you the same things cited for price moves would suggest the same for the SPX. So, here's the 2012...

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If the premise of a trend reversal is going to come to pass we need to see rejection of the attempt to trade at a new high. The breakout looks much more promising now but when you look at a lot of tops you find many of them have wicks slightly above the high. I believe these are referred to as "One tick traps" (I just call them stop hunts). If the breakout can...

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I've been doing running updates on BTC since I declared my last attempt to short fairly close to the high. Read these in the post below. The conditions for a break now look much more likely. Here's a series of things suggesting BTC will now see at least 40K. Click on each of the below for more info: The Heiken Ashi trend has continued to develop. We've...

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There have been big exciting moves in the Yen recently. This post will look at some scenarios this may lead to. First, let's take a big overview of historic Yen trends. Since I'm going to be discussing this from the perspective of a pending Yen crash to keep things simple for people unused to Forex quotes I'll use inverted versions of the charts. Because to...

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Life as a USDJPY buyer has been good, as I proposed it may be in my swing long USDJPY thesis. Market is up several 100 pips and it's paying swaps daily just to hold. What's not to love? But it's starting to feel a bit easy. If it keeps being easy, I'll keep longing with tight stops under structure but my current bias skews more towards the short side. Have...

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TSLA has been down for a while and is in an observable downtrend at time of writing. There's recently been positive news and this has brought up to a 76 retracement. Love to short in these spots. High RR with stops behind the last highs.

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This post is to test a hypothesis we can break bubble moves down into five main stages and with these we can have a reasonable idea where we might be in that move. Here I've marked up the phases on Cocoa and I'll also show some others that have similar phases. Broadly understanding the phases of a bubble and crash is not as grandiose a claim as it's made out...

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Like NVDA we can fit the various swings of the SMCI rally into Elliot wave and this would imply we're either already at the end of or close to the end of wave 5. Might this have been the "New Paradigm" moment in AI? Could these final spikes be setting up the end of the rallies for the foreseeable future and the start of much larger corrections? The case for...

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I've seen a lot of people bearish on AI stocks hate a lot on things like ChatGPT or AI image tools. I think they're awesome. But is the AI rally setting up a rug pull? Let's look at the evidence to suggest there might be. In this post I'm going to cover lots of the rug pull setups pending over the markets. Note: These are patterns that are expected to create...

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Bitcoin fell close to 10% in a single hour yesterday on the news there were drones in the air heading from Iran to Israel. I'm a trader and I'm not going to play Middle East expert on the internet, but there is one observation I'd like to make. That is ... this should have been great for the Bitcoin narrative. In what type of situation would people most...

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The structure of the overall trading of TSLA in the last few years now builds up a huge head and shoulders. Head and shoulders can be a really fickle pattern with more of them failing than succeed but something that's interesting in this move is we also have selling starting from what could be a harmonic correction building the right shoulder. Were TSLA to be...

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Over the previous month I've spoken a lot about the risk of a failed breakout of the high. We're now very close to where I think we'd have the first big obvious tells that is happening. If there's a false breakout of the high, there'll be a rug pull. This is something I've said over and over again. Rug pulls usually come with bad news, so it's particularly...

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The heiken-ashi uptrend failed in March 2024. "Heiekn-ashi" means "Aveage bar" and it's a way to smooth out noise of candle sticks. The theory is these will be much more useful for trend following since they will produce less false reversal signals (and it's a good theory, HA bars are great for semi passive trend following). The general idea is when the bars...