VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) – Going Down SoonOverview:
VTI is currently facing resistance at the $301.85 level, where bulls need a breakout to reverse the bearish momentum. However, the recent price action suggests a potential continuation of the bearish wave structure, aligning with broader market uncertainties.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Key Resistance Zone:
The resistance zone at $301.21–$301.85 is derived from the 88% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downtrend. This area is critical for the bulls to reclaim control.
Bearish Elliott Wave Setup:
- Wave W: Completed, marking a significant decline.
- Wave X: Nearing completion at the resistance zone, with a bearish reversal expected.
- Wave Y: Targeting lower levels as part of the corrective wave sequence.
Targets:
= Target 1: $289.76 – This aligns with a key support area and the 1.0 Fibonacci extension.
- Target 2: $280.81 – Corresponds with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and aligns with historical support.
Stop-Loss: Placed above $301.85 to account for false breakouts while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio.
🌐 Macro Analysis:
Economic Conditions:
1. Rising interest rates and a cautious Federal Reserve stance are weighing on the broader market, including total market ETFs like VTI.
2. Persistent inflation concerns and slowing economic growth create additional headwinds.
Sector Rotation:
3. Defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare are gaining traction, suggesting risk-off sentiment in the broader market.
Investor Sentiment:
Investors remain wary of market volatility, with a shift toward bonds and cash as safe-haven assets.
📌 Trade Plan:
- Short Entry: Between $301.21–$301.85, contingent on bearish confirmation at the resistance.
- Risk Management: Stop-loss at $301.85.
- Profit Targets: First target at $289.76 and second target at $280.81, ensuring a robust risk-reward ratio.
⚠️ Risk Considerations:
Watch for macroeconomic events, such as Federal Reserve announcements and inflation data, that could impact market direction.
Monitor VTI’s reaction at the resistance zone for potential invalidation of the bearish setup.
Do you agree with this bearish outlook on VTI, or do you see a different trend unfolding? Share your thoughts! 🚨📉
