Overnight ES price ACtion REview 11-21-24Going over Price Action ES overnight session looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we are going to trade today. we are Risk Mangers first and foremost.
WSP1! trade ideas
Test PostTest Post ONLY
Buyers wasted no time, reclaiming 5886-88 and pushing us right back to our first target (5910). It’s a level-to-level market today, (as it is most days) with 5886 staying the key “money magnet” pivot. The next targets are 5922, followed by 5934. Lock in gains level to level—don’t get greedy in these conditions.
S&P Profit Taking | Future Long Trade Plans Post ElectionThe SPX rallied on optimism post Election results on economic revival hopes.
Likely a lot of profit taking has occurred across risk assets like this one as prices reached all time highs. There always has to be a time where profits are removed and taken off the table for gains to be realised.
It is likely however that if current sentiment continues we will see further inflows into risk assets at key areas (see local support and 100MA).
Within the optimism of the current up move, this is likely to be a preferred 'scale in' area for longer term investors, with further longs likely lower.
Be very careful on any longs. One switch in Sentiment and the Market falls drastically on panic. Any earlier longs should be incredibly light to reflect the fact that if you are buying now it is way along the demand curve.
Would not be surprised (on current sentiment/price action if price dribbles) but would not take any new shorts this late. Only really prefer very light shorts back at another high hit.
S&P 500: Reached forecasted area!It finally sold off to original forecasted area at around 5900!
And went further down a little more...
Which means we should see more weakness next week.
Also, on the 1H chart, there was a H&S pattern that played out nicely!
But since price has already reached some kind of support, it should take a breather.
So if you want to take short term LONG trades, then look for chart reversal patterns at the 5min (inverted H&S, double/ triple botton, etc..)
Watch out for the down trendline. If it holds, then it should go down further. We can assess again next week on the levels.
ES should rally on MondayThis is a 4 hour Pivot Point chart, showing how, once again.. price travels inside the PP range and never lasts a day outside it. The chart prooves this. Try and find a day price went lower or higher outside the range for a longer timeframe.
EWT tells us the market moves in 5 impuslsive waves and 2 coprrective waves. Since Tuesday, we rallied up 5 waves and down on an A wave, EWT predicts a B wave UP and a C wave down, but my backtesting over 5 year period shows us Mondays go UP about 85% of the time, and Fridays go down the same amount. recently there have been exceptions, but last 3-4 days down, we are oversold, and on Monday last week chart patterns can be ignored ( as far as a continuation of the ABC down...
we are still in a Mega Bull Market, predicted by Elliot when the DOW was at 100. I heard we had 147 new all time highs, why not one on Monday?
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.17 - 11.22.24Last Week :
Last week played out very well even though middle of the week had us thinking that maybe market will continue to hold inside Value above 970s as we kept getting buying in that area but it just took time to build up for the break of that cost basis at VAL to give us more selling end of week. Sunday Globex again opened over Value and grinded towards the upper Edge but we had no tag or push inside it which signaled weakness and as noted if that did no happen we needed to be careful looking for acceptance inside that new range and instead possibly look for this move to return back toward previous Edge and get back under 930s to possibly signal a failed new ATH break out by getting back under Previous ATH Consolidation. We first failed over Value and got the push back inside to correct the Poor low from Previous Weeks Friday Globex which was around the Mean area of that range which kept getting buying that gave us moves back to VAH but we slowly transitioned into correction first on Hourly then on 2hr and finally on 4hr to end the week on Friday with a break/hold under VAL smaller cost basis which gave us more weakness and selling to finish the Week under the lower Edge.
This Week :
So far looking at the structure of Daily/Weekly and the way we closed on Friday we could gather some info to help us go into this week. On Weekly TF we had a failed break out into new balance over 5950 which returned back inside Previous Balance of 950 - 660s, on Daily TF we hit a key upper Edge of the Range, held under it, built some supply and got back trough its VAH and made a move under its Mean area, under Previous ATHs consolidating potentially signaling a failed new ATH break out with a strong close under the smaller Daily MA. On Hourly's we have trapped Supply in above Range and reversed the whole move back under 930 - 13 Edge.
All of this so far screams weakness and continuation lower to me, of course we have to be careful as market could hold and start balancing here above lower Mean/Value and even try to get back inside and over upper Edge which could bring stability back but I think we would need to do all that and be able to hold over 930s AND get back over above VAL in order to see real stability or strength return.
Holding under the Hourly's Edge and under Daily Mean/under Previous ATHs we are looking for possible continuation towards 840s - 20s areas which would put us inside lower Value with a visit of its VAL which is also Daily VAL, these areas could provide covering if we get there BUT if we get through them then we can't forget about our favorite Previous Distribution Balance which market liked returning back into so much into 800 - 750s area which kept having our strong bids that would give us pushes away this is also Daily Edge low as that is a potential return target after failing at upper Edge. Will we get all the way there this week or not ? who knows but that is our possibility and something to watch moves towards as the week develops, question is when or if we get there will that area act as absorption area of all this Supply coming out and be enough to give us a good hold OR we have some nice longer TF stops under it which if we took could give us more supply to try another push for our lower Roll Gap which we have been building up to fill. This seems like a big move so maybe not all the way to fill the gap but it is in the cards if the weakness continues as that is also around Previous Weekly balance lows and if we get under 820 - 05 ( Weekly mid ) then that open the doors for it.
To think higher prices from here again we would need either a strong bid to push us back through the upper Edge and be able to hold over 920-30s AND have the buying to eventually get us back inside above Value, or at least hold over 860s, consolidate without going lower and make a push for upper Edge. Until then will watch the short side or some sort of consolidation balance to be playing out.
ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 19thThe 5886 level remains a money magnet in ES. Yesterday, 5886 served as key support, setting up a relief bounce to the 5934 target. We held 5886 exactly and ran to target. Overnight, it held once again.
As of now: No changes. 5886 (weaker now) supports moves to 5911, 5922, and 5935+. If 5886 fails, selling could begin toward 5862.
Continue to be cautious on ES - History vs FOMOIf you don't feel like listening to the video, I basically review some trades outside of the ES, and discuss the potential concerns for the ES market.
It seems to be a throw spaghetti at the wall and expect everything to stick market, in spite of much of historical data calling for a major downtrend to be coming up. This has led me to more or less remain away from the S&P other than a short on the recent Trump Pump that I already cashed out.
I see more potential for the Euro and Canadian Dollar to regain some level of historical average. I am getting sell signals based on my algorithms into Gold and Oil today. I will evaluate those later, as I'm not sure I'm ready to feel the risk in those just yet as Gold as also suffered from extreme FOMO and Oil is already a bit lower than my expectation of average price around $70-$75.
My algo is pinging signals in;
GC
CL
PL
ZO
ZM
HO
RB
10Y
BTC (I've never traded this, FYI)
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
ES Major Trend SupportES is threatening to break below the uptrend from early August. It has been respecting this trend pretty well except for the fakeout below in late October. I expect a bounce here, but it's worth noting today was the first close below 6k since ES broke above it. It needs reclaim quickly and hold this uptrend, otherwise we could see another leg down to the 5900 area.
Es levels and targets Nov14thAfter last week’s 330-point rally, ES has been following its usual routine after a big move: consolidation, forming a flag. Resistance/target sits at 6028-32, marking yesterday’s highs, and 6009 support held overnight. Don’t overtrade.
As of now: 6009=support. This level keeps 6032, 6038, and ATHs in play. Breakdown only kicks in if 5996-98 fails.
Can buyers get the job doneBuyers reenter the market on Monday and the S&P 500 daily chart. The challenge is their ability the follow-through or was Monday's price action profit-taking after the break in the S&P 500 market over the last few days. The market bias is for higher prices.
Overnight ES price Action REview 11-18-24Going over the overnight session listening to what the market is telling us and coming up with a plan for the morning session. we are risk managers. no A+ setups no trades today.
20241115 ESThere is nice NWOG to the downside below the 4h+OB level. I anticipate one more ss raid and reversal upside later for the TGIF profile. This is an ideal scenario. 9.30 RTH start with ORG Friday will provide more cues.
AMP Futures - How to create order presets.In this idea we will show you how to create order presets using the Tradingview platform.
ESPrice tagged upper trend monday...
I highlighted last 2 times price went this overbought and tagged uppertrend.
The first tag was after the August sell off. We reached the uppertrend and chopped for 2 weeks before dumping
The second tag was mid Sept, we again chopped for 2 weeks but afterwards we bounced off the 20sma and grinded up another 2% or 90 points.
So here we are now the pullback has been miniscule compared to the run up so I'd say we are in a chop phase
So we either a chopped towards the 20sma around 5900 and bounce or
Money flow is starting to dip low on the hourly which leads me to believe we will reclaim the highs again this week
Be honest with you, I don't see a 10% drop coming till after the elections or by some unforseen catalyst.
NASDAQ:NVDA earnings next week will have more of an impact on the indexes than CPI and PPI combined 😆
So my analysis is ,
Overbought
Not bearish
Seasonality strong..
Market will look for any reason (News) to buy dip.
Choppy (1% range) for another week
11/15/24. ES results for dayFinal ES view after sell stops hit. All 3 stops entered, first target hit. Looking for additional targets (below) next week
ES_F Daily LONGER Term OutlookThis is a Daily chart I have been tracking for some time using HTF Balance Ranges and Structure, it may or not play out and if it does then I would think this back fill/correction can take a long time to play out, I would say over a year+ so this is not for day trading or short term swing trading but it is something to possibly keep in mind and help track our movement with IF THEN statements and potential targets lower. 4800 area is something I have been tracking for a while that is an area to me that start our whole move which brought us here and I would not be surprised if we tried to back fill at least most of the way towards it. Again this can take a long time to play out but at least something to refer to in order to manage expectations for new highs and areas of interest for the market.
Not much else to say I tried to make notes on the chart it self so its easier to track.
For stability in the market we would need to not get back under 5820s - 5750/20s Areas and build bases over it then get back over 5990 - 6000 to think new highs, until then we could keep building supply and moving it to lower targets.
For Day Trading refer to Weekly Day Trading Plans.
SPX Risk-On Rally To Continue?Long side impetus flooded Markets on economic hopes via election results.
Since then, we have seen a slight fall on Risk Off Sentiment and outflows on the USD, after some FED comments last night.
Overall Market sentiment remains reasonably stable and may the case traders temporarily feel the last move was overpriced.
Awaiting retail sales. Anything stronger may bring cause for further rallies.
Sizing - Would never take any major longs on SZ1. Further falls needed for anything significant.
Regular re-shorts at highs applicable.
This is About Shorting, Law of Attraction and Wyckoff VSAA Short video showing the new Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis System and coaching with TradeToWin Pro V 1 for TradingView.
S&P 500 futures: Bulls eye breakout beyond record highsS&P 500 futures have been marching higher for more than a week, attracting buying on dips towards uptrend support. With RSI (14) and MACD confirming the bullish price action, the path of least resistance looks higher, putting a retest of 6053.25 on the radar.
With the bias to buy dips near-term, there are two setups available: the first would be to wait for a break above 6053.25. If it were to hold beyond the ultra-short term, you could initiate with a tight stop beneath for protection. Alternatively, if we were to see another retest of uptrend support, longs could be established above it with a stop beneath for protection.
Some traders use extension measures to assess potential targets when trading at record high, but I’m more simplistic; round numbers, such as 6100 using this example, are one option. Another would be to wait for an obvious topping signal from either a single or multiple candle pattern. When one comes along, bail. Otherwise, let it ride.
If the price were to break and close beneath the uptrend, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS.
Positive closes expected for WednesdayWith the bounce from the lows to new highs in the S&P 500 daily chart, it implies buyers have returned and follow-through would be expected for Wednesday's action.
Es Morning Update Nov 26thThis week has revolved around one key level: 5988, the new money magnet. Yesterday, it held as support, sparking a 30-point rally before we got a flush. However, a failed breakdown reclaimed the level overnight.
As of now: Watch for 6026 next, with 6038 beyond. Supports are 6009 (weak) and 5988-93.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 11-26-24Going over the ES price Action overnight and looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. coming up with a plan for the day and reflecting on our trades.
