The structure in the S&P 500 for the last couple of days is actually a neutral zone trade which implies a sideways move however the structure on Wednesday implies a bias for moved to the upside on Thursday.
The smaller range on Tuesday in the S&P 500 implies a loss of momentum and the market catching its breath. This structure means that if you're on the long side be cautious. The expectation is for sideways move.
It appears that the S&P 500 price action indicates the market is adjusting to the outlook that interest rate cuts may happen later in the year. The expectation would be another day higher on Tuesday but not a large range. The estimate for the high would be 5225 to 2530.
Although there was a strong move on Friday, a small positive up range is expected for Monday in the S&P 500.
Can the buyers that appeared in the S&P 500 on Thursday continue its momentum up with a stronger close on Friday. This could be a challenge with the softer opening in the Asia session.
After the volatility seen on Wednesday in the S&P 500, the expectation is that Thursday will be a day for the market to catch its breath before labor numbers come out on Friday. This means trading inside Wednesday's range on Thursday.
With the Fed making announcement on Wednesday, volatility would be expected in the S&P 500. A change in the feds attitude towards interest rates being high longer is not expected.
In the S&P 500, a quiet day is expected on Tuesday as the market focuses on Fed commentary coming out on Wednesday.
Although there was a rally later in the day in the S&P 500 which implies buyers moving the market higher going into the close. The overall structure for Friday implies caution if you are on the long side. It's important that the market does not return to Friday's Lows on Monday to maintain momentum for continuation to new highs.
Buyers came into the S&P 500 late in the session on Wednesday with the lower opening in Asia. Can buyers return to move prices higher to drive the market back to Wednesday highs and that is the expectation.
Earnings may push the S&P 500 higher on Wednesday. 5135 would be the next price objective that you'd want the market to close above.
The S&P 500 is in the neutral zone trade with a bullish bias. The expectation for Tuesday is for today range trading inside of Monday's range with a higher close.
After the S&P 500 market absorbed the news about the retaliatory attack from Israel to Iran with a large moved to the downside buyers into the market. The question is is that buying sellers buying to take profits or has it gotten cheap enough that buyers are entering the market. Pay attention to Sunday nights opening and Asia's response to get guidance for Monday....
Will sellers maintain control in the S&P 500 going into the weekend? Buyers did come into the market on Thursday but failed to hold and sellers pushed the market lower. Another possibility is sellers taking profits on Friday as we go into the weekend.
Sellers named in control in the S&P 500 on Wednesday. We are approaching levels that buyers have entered the market in the past. So, be cautious on the short side.
The price action that we saw in the S&P 500 on Tuesday has the potential for a change in market direction. The key on Wednesday would be for the market to trade above Tuesday's high and give a stronger close above that high.
After the drop in the S&P 500 on Monday, and inside day would be expected unless we get surprise fundamentals for continued weakness in this market on Tuesday.