The Pitchfork Says.....It is just one indicator, but it says what it says.
Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence.
BTCUSD trade ideas
$btc shortBTC/USD - Short Bias After Price Discovery
Market Context:
Bitcoin has entered price discovery mode but is now showing signs of a potential top formation near the $98,297 - $99,573 resistance zone. This area aligns with psychological levels where sellers often take control. Post-discovery phases frequently exhibit corrections or consolidation before continuation.
Indicators and Price Structure:
The price has created a potential lower high after failing to breach the red resistance zone.
The Fair Value Gap (FVG) suggests inefficiency in the recent bullish push, which may act as a magnet for price to retrace.
Bearish divergence could emerge as momentum slows near resistance.
Short Setup:
Look for confirmation of a break below $97,013, which would indicate a loss of bullish momentum.
A bearish break below this level could trigger a move toward filling inefficiencies and retesting previous support zones.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $98,297 - $99,573
First support target: $93,000
Major downside target: $86,125, representing a potential retest of a significant demand zone.
Entry Plan:
Entry trigger: Short on confirmation of price closing below $97,013 on significant volume or a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing).
Stop Loss: Above the local swing high or $99,573 to protect against invalidation.
Take-Profit Targets:
Partial at $93,000 (local support).
Full at $86,125 for an extended correction post-price discovery.
Risk Management:
The structure suggests post-discovery corrections could retrace deeper before finding new buyers. Keep risk tightly managed in case bullish sentiment reignites at support levels.
KING IS BACK!!! BITCOIN ON SURE TRAJECTORY TO 100KAs Bitcoin approaches the crest of its third wave, nearing the 100K mark, emotions surrounding the crypto king have been overwhelmingly positive. This sentiment is to be expected, especially given the current cycle and the position we find ourselves in.
The fourth wave was a bit cheeky since it has what we can call, an unorthodox bottom, given that the actual end of it was above the lowest point in the corrective pattern. Just one of the many tricky aspects that corrections use to fool the operators. I feel safe to take the low a52350 on September 8 as the official low for this wave.
From this point, we start to see a strong fifth wave carrying a lot of momentum. I have noticed before that, as in commodities and futures, many crypto tend to exhibit the most strength in the fifth and final wave instead of the third, having the farthest advance in its last hurrah.
I have two very likely termination points for this move depicted as the blue lines at 107,650 and 123,175, which are 1-3(100%) and 1-3(127%) respectively. We could see an even bigger travel but we we'll need to adjust for that as it may come.
For now safe to say that as with every surge that the king of crypto ever has had, it comes accompanied by all kinds of scams and pumps and dumps along the way. Most new crypto independent projects are scams as this community has turned mostly speculative rather than actually looking to add value to society. If you are to put money in crypto which I don't necessarily think is the best idea, I would still suggest to stick the to big staples that have shown to have reliable pools of liquidity, that although still subject to manipulation, in the very least it has had permanence and longevity.
Happy Trading and good luck. :)
Nothing has really changed, I was prepared for it I was there for a long run since my last analysis post. No intra-day trades, only a long run. We can never predict the future but with the economic situation of the moment, I was prepared for it. Sell off when the mass talks about it ;)
crypto flagbitcoin is flying on many news
end of QT, fed cutting rates into assets bubble, trump making it strategy research assets and many more
after flag pattern breakout current impulsive wave length is same as previous wave before beginning of flag pattern near big psychological mark 100k
BITCOIN BTCWe are near the all-time high (ATH), and there are two scenarios here. If it retraces, 52–48–35k levels. If it breaks out, we might target 100–150k. No one can predict, but having a plan for both cases is a more reasonable thing to do.
Trade smart, and patience is the key."
2022 chart cycles updatedchart made in may 2022.
last market bottom was predicted.
Updated time marks for current bull market top
One More Leg Down - 32k incoming!Short term Bearish.
But
Long term Bullish, as always :)
Based on the channels in the charts, Bitcoin tried three times to cross an important trend line in its price movement but faced strong resistance each time. This is probably a strong indicator that further legs down are more likely to happen.
How deep will it go?
it depends on how fast Bitcoin wants to correct, to touch the nearest support line in the chart.
32k levels are more likely to be visited. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
bitcoin heading to 100k if this happensbitcoin heading to 100k if this happens; dont sleep on this my signals have been hitting back to back
Bitcoin Break-out? or some pain first? for some fun, and as we seem to be in this bull market I thought i would post some of my own tthoughts. this is not to align with our strategy. its purely my personal opinions. so if anything do the complete oposition as in most cases , even from so say experts, these opinions mean nothing and prove nothing. ITS JUST FOR FUN.
Anyway, I feel the market might do a bit of a pullback here, touching on the 100,000 for bitcoin. when a key level is expected, it will hit for sure its like a magnet, but there has to be some pain and take out the greed before its hit. So based on this I would expect some sharp pull back before we break. normal key big levels get touched 2 or 3 times before breaking out. three levels below each giving more pain
BTCs Bear Market Bottom in SightA couple of weeks ago, as the Crypto King slid down the slope of investor hope breaking below the 17k price level, it was interesting to see as its sibling in many ways, Ethereum, failed to make a new low to accompany it. This must not be too unsettling as the corrective pattern Bitcoin was exhibiting was largely unresolved, standing in stark contrast to Ethereums corrective pattern which seems to have already found rock bottom at least for the time being.
While BTC is still trending below the long-term EMAs, price is starting to accumulate and the bearish move could be losing momentum. A rise and close above the EMAs will confirm the start of a rising market. HAPPY TRADING:)
Bitcoin Weekly ResistanceRed zone is the most likely place for BTCUSD to do a significant retrace at least to the 95K level.
BTC ascending triangleBTCUSD has formed an ascending triangle above of a 2.1 std devs VWMA bollinger band reaching a point earlier this morning. From here it is a possibility we could shoot past 100k... but also the possibility of re-entering the bollinger bands which would meaning needing to find support quickly or roll the dice with a fight closer to the MA
When will Bitcoin Reach ATH of Cycle 2025Something to REALLY think about
Where will BTC Turn longterm BEARISH after the 2025 TOP
This chart shows you Long Term resistance lines, lower bold from 2013 and acts as the Border line, the gateway to ATH. Once crossed and Held...Off we go
Upper bold Trendliner in Newer from 2017 ATH and has rejecting PA off ATH everytime since
Once in channel, it is only UP
Local Resistance keeping PA down till at least March and so a Spring ATH is possible but PA is overbought right now and would take longer to cool off....Ranging as we did from March 2024 is a possibility, leading to the late 2025 ATH OR we do Two ATH, as we did in 2021
We also have the Day counts, from PA cycle LOW to HIGH and an average of the past shows us that March time is a possible ATH zone. There is confluence in many charts that also point to this time period. But, again, we have other charts that point towards later in the year for that
There is no way of knowing how this will play out except to understand the "Field" is changing with a much more accepting Crypto world - Anything can happen now.
ENJOY THE RIDE
Bitcoin Surges Past $95K Despite Overbought SignalsThe outlook of the Bitcoin uptrend remains bullish as long as the prices are above 95K, with the next bullish target being the $100,000 threshold.
Article: fxnews.me
ATCryptoScan: Bitcoin Projections into 2025I know that there are many people out there projecting Bitcoin movements, and some are accurate, while others are, well..., less accurate. I think we need to learn and discern what is sound, what is probable and what should we follow.
Here I present a continuation of the usual projections that I have been doing for bitcoin, and more, including market instruments, ETFs, and other charts.
Firstly, this projection has always been a combination between technical indicators (such as candlesticks, moving averages, MACD and volume analysis, DeMark, etc.), geometrical patterns with support resistance levels, Fibonacci, as well as astrological energy patterns.
Historically, earlier in 2024, 17 August was marked as the expected time to load up Bitcoin at 40K. While Bitcoin never reached 40K, the period (on hindsight) was about appropriate as BTCUSD consolidated strongly above 54K. Breakout signals started in September and October, Buy signals in late October.
A couple of posts in simple pattern analysis was also shared previously, even as close as a week before the massive breakout came.
So now, going forward, we need to relook into BTCUSD for when it would top out from this parabolic run, and to what retracement levels for out second bite at the cherry.
Ok, I will walk through the step by step thought process so here goes the model building...
The current spike rally is a little long in the teeth, if I may say so. BTCUSD has had amazing spikes and this is one of them for the history books. Meanwhile, I start with the weekly TD Sequential which is nicely completing a Perfected TD Sequential . What this means is that the Sequential Setup is completed with all the conditions required, and is ready for a retracement/trend change.
With that possibility, a target point needs to be demarcated and this can be done in many ways...
First up is a simple geometric measurement of the previous rallies. Since September, there has been two rallies of similar magnitude (x). The third rally did double the magnitude (2x) as denoted by the third blue (solid arrow). This arrow is left solid as it was part of the projection made previously. Clearly price overshot and went up much higher. Another magnitude (x) is marked by the dashed line blue arrow, and you can see that there was a stall about 94,500.
And then the spike rally started yet again...
This time, I am less expectant of a double magnitude (2x) rally. BTCUSD needs to end the rally on a flat note, and then retrace for the next larger wave. If it blows off the top then the downside would be more devastating.
TD Sequential also has yet a lesser known, but very common and respected, rule that states it is possible to overextend for the range on the highest candle... marked by the blue box (daily) and the yellow box (weekly).
Astrological energies "coincidenttally" pin 17 December as the time for a reversal. Furthermore, and oddly enough, in a retracement setting to rocket further/
Together with the weekly TD Sequential, there is a confluence at about 108K for BTCUSD topping out. This should bring us to the end of the year, maybe early next year.
Now that models the topside. It needs to happen first, then the expected retracement can then be a realistic possibility.
Rough modelling forward, if the topping out happens as expected, we should see a retracement to about 75K. This is a simple look at the respected and responded Fibonacci lines, noting that every 61.8% is a support bounce.
So, for a probable longshot, 75K in Feb 2025 is targeted as the next point/level for accumulation.
BITCOIN : RECTANGLE BREAKOUT pattern - BULLISH
TECHNICAL INDICATORS -
RECTANGLE BREAKOUT PATTERN :
bitcoin has broken out of a long rectangle pattern (price has stayed within the rectangle since 17th nov and tested it for 10 times) today with a large green candlestick (strong confirmation) indicating upward momentum
PROFIT TARGET :
98334.37
Chart Idea - BTC Potential Bull Market TargetI have rarely seen a cup and handle created on weekly this beautifully. Acc to this cup n handle pattern, the TP is coming around $290K. I personally will start booking profits once the monthly RSI hits around 90. Bearish divergence on weekly will give further confirmation to start selling in big chunks. It doesn't matter what the price would be and what the month in that cycle would be. IMO, it will be around 3rd or 4th quarter in 2025. Let's see
Not a financial advice!!
This measurement seems interestingAll the description is in the chart. This is just a personal interpretation of this graph, it is not "obligatory" to happen like this. I noticed that the top price differs depending on the exchange.
So you better do your own research.
BTC to ATHThis is a chart I prepared a few months ago. I never shared it. BTC got in the "Buy Zone" just briefly. Now we have set a series of higher lows. This is a Bullish setup. I see a break from previous resistance with strength to go higher. ATH in the near to medium term.
Stack Sats on pullbacks and don't over-trade.
Not your Keys. Not your Crypto.
Stay safe my friends.
CYCLE 4 | SMA Golden Ratio [UPDATE]For those following along with this indicator, the current price action volatility has accelerated price to some interesting historic points.
As discussed in prior post above, historically BTC has followed a trend of dropping to the lower SMA extension coloured line with each cycle with interesting multiple hits in establishing our 2021 technical cycle top.
We have already tagged the gold line and currently approaching the 'Gray Line' which put in our prior cycles ATH.
Will be interesting to see how BTC (buyers / sellers) handles this price level and the information this may provide on how useful this indicator may be this cycle....
Where is the top for BTC?Just looking at BTC charts give's me anxiety. I feel a storm brewing, I see white knuckles trying to hold on to the face of El Capitan, there is a move incoming. Beware the fake out/mommy make out and buy/sell wisely.
Potential non-failure swingThe recent breakout from the ascending wedge (a bearish pattern) may have been an extension of the previous 5 waves, rather than the start of a new set.
This would be a "non-failure" swing because it didn't fail to break above the (5) wave.
My lower targets are based on the general rule that support is found at the (4), but in a low liquidity markets we can lower that to the (2). We can still place a stop below the (1), but a secondary stop could help you sleep.
Then, the magic sauce of the non-failure is a fairly reliable resistance under the A wave, which provides a short with a target just below the (4).
