Major chart breakout in RussellFollowing the premature breakout of a massive rectangle that lacked follow through in Russell in late December, the rally today appears to be the legitimate breakout. This could be a strong advance.
RTY trade ideas
RUSSEL 2000 - Bullish Pennant - Value Area1. Zoomed out to provide perspective - Long term ranging market with a recent breakout. Now trading close to the previous resistance.
2. Market trading above the 50 and 200 EMAs - bias is to look for long opportunities in value areas.
3. As mentioned in point 1, market trading in a value area. If a long trade goes against us, we'll be able to understand quickly and a cheaply that our idea didn't work out. Conversely, if a long trade goes our way, there's a meaty reward ahead. In short, there's a risk / reward asymmetry presenting itself in this market.
4. Where is the trigger for a long trade?
a) Edge of a pennant pattern with a breakout leaded by an above average size bullish candle.
b) Preceded by another above average sized bullish candle
c) RSI depicts a shift of momentum to bullish.
5. Trade
a) Current daily candle
b) SL below the pennant pattern - $1887
c) TP - follow the trend and close position upon EMAs crossings or aim at the this market's all time highs range.
6. Risk management: No more than 1% of yr total equity at risk.
Cheers
Russell 2000 in precarious positionHi Guys.
I am still bullish biased on the Russel. At the moment the index is being supported by the 50 ma and directly overhead has resistance by the 20 ma. The pullback to the current price is also a retest of the downward trendline it broke out of. Should the Russell make a bullish move from here and clear the most recent swing high that would look like a break of an inverse H&S but I see the more likely scenario of not being able to break the swing high until it moves slightly lower and makes a double bottom on the Daily which I am waiting to trade rather than the HS pattern which I dont like as a continuation pattern.
Also should price move south it may coincide with the completion of a bullish shark pattern with entry starting at the 88.6 level until the 1.13 level, wherever a proper entry reason arises for an individual's trading style/ methodoligies.
A more powerful move would follow a double bottom which has support in the area of the anchored VWAPs (Black and red lines on chart). the from both bear market high and lows which doesnt happen all that often and historically is powerful suport or resistance. You can see the bounce off the black AVWAP and 50 MA when the Russel pulled back from its massive run up from the lows.
We shall see what plays out ove the coming days / weeks.
Safe trading all.
Long Deep OTM Calls on RUT.I have a bunch of limit orders to buy everything lower and would far prefer to buy them lower but all the would be sell signals failed recently on SPX and Nasdaq.
RUT has lagged these heavily over the last while but I think we might be due to see one of the best moves we've seen in RUT for a while. I'd want to short into a spike but for now I am buying 2100 calls for mid/end of March.
I think there's a good chance of a strong rally in the coming weeks.
Potential Breakout in Small Caps The Russell 2000 small cap index has lagged the broader market so far in 2024, but now it may be showing signs of strength.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the lower low and higher high on Monday versus Friday. That kind of bullish outside candle may suggest that buyers are taking control.
Second, prices pushed above a falling trendline from the December 27 peak.
Third, RUT bounced in mid-January slightly above 1888. That was the peak before the Federal Reserve’s dovish meeting on December 13. It was also slightly above a 50 percent retracement of the rally that started on November 14 (when inflation hit 0 percent). Some traders may also view the recent pullback as a completed ABC correction.
Next, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed back above the 21-day EMA. MACD also flipped back to positive. Those points may reflect bullishness in the shorter term.
Turning to the longer run, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA earlier this month. The weekly chart below also shows how RUT has held potential support levels and may be challenging key resistance from August 2022.
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Russell showing whos in controlHi guys,
Just additional info on Russel 200 that some may find useful
I was pointing out the control buyers have at the moment on this index.
Further on that, it is the first time that Russell has pulled back from the range high that it has been at for over a year and made an impulsive move to the upside and not down. Also the clear support on the pullback from the anchored vwaps from both the bear market high and low converge to support price at the pullback as well as the 50ma and the gap below not filled.
As I mentioned before two levels of interest where some excellent selling opportunities may arise are the two order blocks ive highlighted that have confluence with fib levels.
Hope some of this info is useful .
Safe trading all.
Russel leaving no doubt Bulls are in total controlRegardless of macro environment or whatever else the price action on the Russel 2000 chart is a warning ... DONT short the indices YET... they still have some way to go.
Bullish pennant after bullish pennant in the move up from the bottom should leave no doubt in anyones mind.
A copy and paste of the flagpole of the large pennant puts the target just below its all time high.
Ive found through backtesting they are incredibly accurate for a gauging profit targets.
This is not to say that there wont be selling opportunities along the way.. in fact there is a daily order block just above its recent high where sellers will likely step in and further up an untested Weekly order block and they both align with fib ratios from the high to the low.
RUSSEL 2000 ready for an explosive move?RUT has created an interesting daily price chart:
1. it shows a pole/flag pattern with a potential to move another step upwards - but how much?
2. it shows an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern, which points to a potential move - eventually erractic ? - towards 2100 points.
3. the cyclical pattern let us expect a feelable trough only towards end of February.
Though, many see the RUT as weakest among the indexes, but expect the unexpected......
US2000 Horizontal Range PlayPrice has been trading inside of a horizontal range for some time now. On the previous run up to resistance there was a range breakout that quickly fell back inside the range, more than likely trapping those who bought the breakout. The 2000 price level is now potentially serving as an important barrier just under range resistance. If this area continues to hold, then I expect an eventual move towards and possibly down to 1640, which is range support.
RUT Possible Range Based Bull TrapWhile everything else put in really big rallies RUT has lagged and acted a lot more consistently with a classic bull trap pattern.
I continue to think the weakness in the RUT is sus, because in theory small caps should be stronger into the early section of a bull market.
Probably a spike to come. Likely a fast one. Maybe a good time to be long OTM calls, but the ideal things for a bear setup here would be a spike out of the range, a hit of the 76 retracement and then the downtrend starting.
Would be really interested in shorting a RUT pop here.
US2000 Short with Caution:: Fundamentally S&P, DOW, and NAS have broken the all-time high while Russell is at -20% from the previous high because RUSSELL is low cap index and they suffers when the interest rate is high -- RUSSELL is waiting for the NEXT rate cut to RUN above the existing zone (which is by the end of Jan and March. It seems that there will not be a rate cut in JAN).
PRICE ACTION
:: Monthly price (rising) above the baseline of TDI.
:: Weekly retesting of the baseline of TDI
Price reversed after an inverted hammer followed by a strong bearish close. However, Doji is followed by Hammer BUT they are not at the significant zone (high or low position of the trend) to expect the reversal.
:: Daily Price is still below the previous swing low.
Got to wait till W or divergence formation in TDI for a buying opportunity
4th attempt to break the consolidation but failed.
:: 4H at previous swing low (perfect zone to reverse and make new low)
Price at a minor trendline and should not have a sustained close above.
SK SYSTEM
After a complete sequence at 2461, the price tested the 1460-1710 B zone and has respected this zone since June 2022.
The sequence that started from Oct-2023 has completed its full sequence by closing higher than the previous three highs (accumulation price high).
After the completion of a sequence, we expect the retest to the WCL level which is the TP1 Zone;
Hence, I am looking for a SHORT opportunity as a correction move BUT if the price closes above 1987 I will look for a buy Opportunity.
TP2 doesn't seem to be appropriate as if the price has to attempt a bullish, price should not come back to the TP2 zone which is the consolidation low area.
US2000 H4 | Downward trend to resumeUS2000 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 1,944.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 1,988.39
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 1,874.74
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
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Will US2000 find buyers at market?US2000 - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Previous support located at 1924. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
We look to Buy at 1925 (stop at 1905)
Our profit targets will be 1975 and 2010
Resistance: 2010 / 2080 / 2110
Support: 1865 / 1820 / 1775
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big down side, small upside in RUTRusell 2000 maybe leading the rest of the market to the downside.
Russell has exposure to financial and energy, more so than nasdaq and large cap sp500.
MMFI- is the percentage of stocks over the 50 day moving average. Useful in indicating how broadly bullish or bearish the market is, how the crowd is leaning in sentiment.
VIX- is volatility index which measure options premium for 30 days and annualizes number, also known as fear indicator and is useful in measuring expected movement and uncertainty by traders.
While price has been rising in sp500, could RUT russell2k be signaling a turn coming in profit taking or more.
Trade Idea- bear spreads for 6 months out or more, profit taking , asset allocation rebalancing.
*Not advice, just what I'm doing and thinking for me
US2000 H4 | Potential bearish reversalUS2000 could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1,987.83 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 2,024.47 which is a pullback resistance that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1,923.50 which is a pullback support.
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RUT 2K Fell 17.50% After the Last U.S. Credit DowngradeIf you haven`t bought the RUT 2K regional Double Bottom here:
On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing "a steady deterioration in standards of governance."
This downgrade occurred following last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to secure a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, which put the nation at risk of its first default.
Following a similar credit downgrade in the past, the RUT 2K Russell 2000 experienced a sharp decline of 17.50% within a three-month period. S&P, one of the three major credit rating firms, downgraded U.S. debt on Aug. 5, 2011, after another significant debt ceiling battle.
Presently, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
Even though is not likely, a 17.50% decline will lead to a Price Target of $1630 for RUT 2K.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
RUT 2K Price Prediction for 2024If you haven`t bought the Double Bottom on RUT 2K:
Then you probably know that small caps haven`t participated in the 2023 market rally.
That`s why I believe investors will will for opportunities in the small cap stocks in 2024, and Russell 2000 index might offer a bigger return than the S&P this year.
My price prediction for RUT 2K is $2560 by the end of the year.
RUSSELL 2000 on a 20 month High! Is it sustainable?Russell 2000 (RUT) gave us an excellent buy entry on our last call (see chart below), as we achieved the most optimal buy near Support 2 and rallied all the way to our 2000 Target:
The Resistance Zone broke and this delivered a new 20-month High on the index, the effect of which is more accurately seen on the 1W time-frame. The question is, how sustainable can this rally be?
Well as the 1W RSI is only 3 points away from getting overbought (70.00) for the first time since March 2021, having also entered the 2 year Higher Highs Zone, it becomes less and less sustainable. In fact a less risky medium-term strategy would be to start selling and target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That is where we will reverse to a buy and target Resistance 1 at 2140.
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$RSP & $RUT performing better at the moment, vs $SPXAMEX:RSP vs AMEX:SPY
Equal weight vs regular #SP500
We can see that equal weight has been performing better
Russell 2000
TVC:RUT is no longer stuck in a rut :)
It had a fake breakout in the daily charts in August but look at it now.
That weekly is looking Nicely!
We've stated a few times that we believed these 2 would be moving better than normal averages.
We also said TVC:DJI would keep leading, it has. Another new All time high.
Another call, NASDAQ:NDX should surpass, it's more aggressive.
