MZS1! trade ideas
Week 10: ZSK2021 Bullish Ahead, wait for a retracement.Based on last Friday closing, I would expect the price to be bullish to $14.43 and making a retracement there.
However, I was proven wrong, the market gap up and push the price higher than $14.43
There is no more references that I can use as there is no data on the "left"; the only way to read the market is only by reading the Price Action.
I did some research on historical data and found that the highest price for SoyBeans was $17.6825 (03 September 2012).
If we are studying those data, there is a potential reversal at $16.50 where it was a strong resistance level created in July 2008.
Having said the above, we are not here to predict but to trade.
Our short-term observation:
(1) The price is on the upper-band of trend channel, either it will break or continue to range.
(2) Looking at the current movement, I don't think the gap will be closed that fast; the impulse movement upward was so strong and normally it will become a good support zone (area to buy).
(3) I left my line at $14.30 as a buy area marking.
Additional info which I mentioned above:
www.macrotrends.net
If you have other views or opinions or ideas, let's discuss it on the comment below.
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There is an ascending triangle formation on Soybean(commodities).
There was a strong bullish sentiment before. So this formation may become a confirmation of trend continuation.
According to Elliott Waves theory Wave D is done and the price is heading to Wave E.
So follow the chart and look for the breakout.
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And always remember: "we don't predict, we react".
Week 09: ZSK2021 Price is consolidatingThis week 09, we will be using ZSK21 as a chart reference.
There are few things that I would like to share:
(1) This morning the price was continuing the rally and created a gap upon opening. Price gap normally is closed within a day or two; so for a speculator, you can use this opportunity to short it.
However, please be aware that the overall trend is still bullish, if you are shorting, be mindful that you have to act fast.
(2) Overall the price still has no direction and it will be ranging from $1,405 to $1,427
(3) I will be interested to sell if the price penetrated $1,384
I will update again in mid-week if there is a sudden change on the outlook.
Everyone and their Dog should be Long SoybeansNov WASDE was the Gasoline to this fire, Soybean have been trending up for quite some times.
Managed Money Long is breaking record every week and we should not be surprised by this massive amount of fund buying the world, Global QE = Excess Money Flow.
Not much telling with technical unless you go back 10y.
Upside in the Mid Teen's if La Niña materialize in South America
Week 08: ZSH2021 Wait for a break to SellPatience is one of the key traits in trading.
Last week we did not see much action, the price is ranging in a tight movement 20.4 points for a whole week.
This week we are still waiting for a confirmation to short the market:
(1) Price level at $1,390 is being respected and currently creating a "fake out" line.
(2) My reversal zone remains at $1,400 (for now)
(3) The sign of going down will be confirmed when $1,370 is broken.
Overall, my view remain bearish with the following trade plan:
Sell Pending Order at $1,400
Stop Loss at $1,410
Take Profit at $1,322
RRR = 7.8R
I will monitor on daily basis too, shoot me a question if you need any clarifications or exchange ideas.
Week 7: ZSH2021 Let's wait to SELL againMy overall sentiment is still Bearish bias .
Today the opening price jumped 14 points and the bull kept running to the nearest Supply Zone.
In general view, the seller is still strong and therefore, we participate in selling too.
The nearest SELL area is between $1,395 and $1,400 (5 points zone), with a Stop Loss at $1,411.
Our first Take Profit level is at $1,375 (2.27R).
What if the price did not hit the Supply zone at $1,395 - $1,400 ?
Then we have to see the Price Action movement and market structure. Good Luck!
Week 6: ZSH2021 Price is in the sell areaFollowing up last week analysis, the price will be visiting Supply area prior going down.
My personal Sell Order will be at $1,417 (it depends on the price action in the next 2-3 H4 candles, I may short it early too).
The stop loss will be at $1,438 (New Higher High) and our Take Profit will be quite low (at least $1,275).
The simple sign will be at $1,417 area, if the body size of the candles are not prominently bullish; and there is a formation of Lower High (LH); I will go at whole-nine-yard to short the market. Just kidding, money management is still important, perhaps 10% to 20% equity to short this opportunity.
Soybeans (March21) have a decision to makeMarch Beans – Daily: Beans have been consolidating into a symmetrical triangle. You can see at the right there is a high amount of volume in the current price range. A break below would target 12.09. A break above, would first test the 13.95 area and then the 14.36 high. A move above 14.36 would then target the 16.60 area. Bull’s, re-read that. First need to take out 13.95 then the 14.36….
Watch for high volume on breakout moves and be careful on any fake outs.
Week 05: ZSH2021 Short Term BullishOn H4, the price has broken the down trend channel and making a Higher High.
From 27 January to date, the price movement is forming another flag on the higher band; also, to add some confluences, if we observed the Price Action on the candle stick, there were some rejection to go down.
Based on the above, I think the price will pick up some liquidity at $1,417 area prior going down.
Short term (1-2 days) will be bullish as we are still in bullish flag area.
Week 04: ZSH 2021 We are entering a ranging weekLet's keep it short, this week the price will be in ranging mode.
The range is between $1,338 to $1,280.
If you have shorted earlier, you can take profit some of your positions and keep some until it hits full TP at $1,280.
If you are a speculator, now it is a good time to Long (buy) the market, but you must exit at $1,338 area; then switch to Short the market.
In general, when the market is in ranging, we can scalp it Up and Down.
Trade wisely, Trend is your friend.
BeansI drew this one this way at about 8.50 in the spring and was slightly abused on twitter. no wilting flower, i went back to present it to my critics at about 10+ and now, my critic is off twitter. perhaps they were short. Its been a hellacious run and now? the length will move to the november, the spread will collapse or fluctuate wildly and weather will determine if we have the next big leg. Just a silly arcing bottom that appeared to me at a propitious time.
Week 03: ZSH 2021 The "Head" is forming, we are looking to shortWeek 03 analysis for ZSH 2021 .
The price is now ranging at the lower band of the trend channel, and on the structure wise, there is no Higher High forming.
It indicates the formation of the "head" and sellers are starting to jump in the market.
Our key level remain at $1,370 and once the price passed below that level, our probability to short is higher.
Stay tuned.
Week 02: ZSH 2021 Uptrend Channel, waiting for a breakApology for the late post.
Week 02 for ZSH 2021 is still bullish looking. Yesterday on H1, we can see the price movement candle by candle that there were no sign of weakness. In the last hour of market, it created a strong rejection and buyer jumped in with a significant momentum.
Let's see on the overall picture in H4, the movement is still within the Uptrend Channel, we only can short the market when we see a break at $1,370 level.
As at I wrote this, from H4 down to M5; there are still no sign of Seller coming to the market.
Buyer is still dominating the market, be cautious if you plan to long the market.
No trade call for this week.
-SatayFX
