Amkeller1

Amkeller1

Just an image I use to see where we are relative to history. Well the market is leaning so far towards easing that market rates (defined here as an average of 1,2,3 years are trading at historic discounts to the fed funds rate. Core and measured CPI there for you too. Enjoy, AMK

Amkeller1 Updated 

I like buying Soybean Oil here around 49.90 July Contract. 48.86 December. 1. Big correction through harvest season. 2. Seasonally bottoms late nov- December 3. La Nina to El Nino--- no good for growing conditions. www.usda.gov 4. Chart pattern I like.

Amkeller1

Meaningful? Only has meaning to the ADD-afflicted world of traders! Nothing to explain that isn't in the image.

Amkeller1

We are sort of in a speed zone here between 24000 and 28000. Didn't trade much here on the way up, nor on the way down. Got rid of some badly levered longs, some Chinese hedge funds, couple of big lenders, and the two wildmen of the corporate balance sheet - Saylor and Elon- well Saylor is no longer CEO of his pile of bitcoin, but probably still very involved. And...

Amkeller1

Just a chart I keep to remember where the Fed is vs. rates. This is vs. 10y yield, but easy to do vs. US01y also. While inflation may slow, and the Fed may slow later this year, they are still well behind the curve vs. Core Inflation which I don't need to remind doesn't include commodity price inflation. Enjoy. AMK

Amkeller1

I drew this one this way at about 8.50 in the spring and was slightly abused on twitter. no wilting flower, i went back to present it to my critics at about 10+ and now, my critic is off twitter. perhaps they were short. Its been a hellacious run and now? the length will move to the november, the spread will collapse or fluctuate wildly and weather will determine...

Amkeller1

Just inflation expectations and nominal yields and the spread