Long ETH, Short BTC on Expected ETH ETF Approval SEC's unexpected nod for Ethereum Spot ETFs (“ETH ETFs”) through the approval of 19b-4 forms has ignited a fresh wave of excitement in crypto markets. This paper delves into the impact on ETH/BTC Ratio fuelled by this development. The ratio has been a laggard throughout the current bull run.
ETHER ETF ADVANCES TOWARDS APPROVAL
On 23rd May, the SEC unexpectedly approved the 19b-4 forms, permitting CBOE, Nasdaq, and NYSE to list ETH ETFs. This surprised participants who anticipated a rejection.
Take note that this does not signify that spot ETH ETFs are approved for trading yet. The applications must still clear the next hurdle, which is the approval of the S-1 form. This process could potentially be drawn out over the next couple of months but there are encouraging signs.
Last week, Blackrock updated its S-1 form for its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), suggesting that the issuers and SEC were working towards fine-tuning the details. The Block reported that other issuers were told to send in their updated S-1 filings by Friday 31/May.
Additional rounds of revisions are expected before a final decision. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas opines that approval could come as soon as June.
A key point of interest for ETH ETFs will be whether the ETH held in these instruments can be staked. Staking Ethereum generates 3.4% APR (Annual Percentage Rate) as of 3rd June. Staking is exposed to risk of losses through slashing. Yet, it makes Spot ETFs attractive to investors.
ETH ETF WILL DRIVE SPOT DEMAND
Like the spot Bitcoin ETFs, ETH ETFs will drive additional spot demand for the cryptocurrency. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have seen more than USD 13 billion of capital inflows .
Spot ETFs represents new source of demand and in the month following its launch, inflows drove large price moves.
ETH ETFs are unlikely to attract the same level of demand as Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows into ETH ETFs are expected to be a fraction of those into BTC ETFs, with ETH assets constituting about 10%-20% of BTC assets in various regions, according to comparisons of currently listed instruments.
Source: Eric Balchunas on X
Projecting this level of spot demand, ETH ETFs could witness inflows between USD 1.1 billion (10% of BTC inflows) to USD 2.2 billion (20% of BTC inflows) over the next three months.
ETH HAS LAGGED IN THE CURRENT CRYPTO RALLY
BTC has been the clear winner in the current crypto rally. BTC is the only large crypto to exceed its previous all-time-high until now. In terms of relative performance, other cryptocurrencies have displayed robust performance too.
Other crypto-assets Solana, Dogecoin and Binance Coin have surged to outperform BTC over the last six months. ETH has been a noticeable laggard.
ETH had been underperforming even BTC until 20th May. Following the rally after approval, ETH has just managed to catch up to BTC performance but still lags relative to smaller (and riskier) crypto assets SOL, DOGE, and BNB.
To get a sense of relative performance, we can plot the ratios of these crypto assets with BTC. This chart makes ETH underperformance relative to BTC even clearer.
This underperformance might suggest that investors have moved away from ETH. That risk when flipped could also present an opportunity for ETH to outperform BTC in the coming weeks.
ETH/BTC ratio is a mean-reverting quantity and relative to the peaks seen during past cryptocurrency bull runs, the ratio is low. Notably, the ratio rallied sharply after BTC reached new all-time-high levels in the past.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Approval of ETH ETFs in the near term is likely to translate into spot buying, driving up prices. A hypothetical trade consisting of a long position in the ETH/BTC ratio will benefit as ETH outperforms BTC.
Investors can execute a spread trade on the ETH/BTC ratio using CME Micro Bitcoin and CME Micro Ether futures. Each contract of Micro Bitcoin futures provide exposure to 0.1 Bitcoin and each contract of Micro Ether futures provide exposure to 0.1 Ether. Eighteen contracts of Micro Ether are required to balance notional value on both legs of the trade.
• Entry: 0.0547
• Target: 0.0600
• Stop Loss: 0.0520
• Profit at Target: USD 655
• Loss at Stop: USD 336
• Reward/Risk: 1.95x
Notably, this trade does not match notional exactly as the current BTC/ETH ratio is 18.28. Alternatively, CME offers Ether/Bitcoin Ratio (EBR) futures that enable investors to gain exposure to the ETH/BTC ratio through a single transaction and match notional exactly.
Each contract of these futures corresponds to an exposure of USD 1,000,000 multiplied by the index value (approximately USD 54,810 at a ratio of 0.05481 as of May 31).
These contracts enable investors to obtain relative value exposure on these closely correlated assets without taking a directional stance. The EBR contract is also substantially more margin efficient than individual futures on both legs (USD 6,800 vs USD 28,000 for the same notional value). However, investors should be aware that these newly introduced futures have poor liquidity compared to individual Ether and Bitcoin full-size and micro futures contracts.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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MBTM2024 trade ideas
BTC looks okay, 1st phase pretty much complete, phase 2 nextTurned bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC during the beginning of May.
Futures #BTC looks good but the volume is lacking a bit.
RSI looks okay but not great.
$ Flow is not that great either.
Spot #Bitcoin = ditto.
However, technically they look good, they are trading above their respective moving averages.
What would seal the deal? HUGE volume breaking highs!
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Not shown here, pls see profile for more info.
Noticed an interesting weekly CRYPTOCAP:BTC pattern. Will speak on that later as the pattern will likely resolve months from now. Want to see what happens within the next couple months first.
Spot #BTC hasn't proven it's better to chart vs futures #Bitcoin, doubt it will until it counts (meaning it'll change when things hit the fan).
Current box is the best looking. We'll see what happens very soon.
#crypto
bitcoin bearish idea there's a bearish idea on bitcoin if we fail to continue going up once we reach new all time highs. if we reject and get back into old range i see this playing out
BTC on CME - Confirming Breakout?Here we have the CME chart and we notice something very interesting which could lay out Bitcoins direction for the coming week.
On Friday Bitcoin closed at $69,650 on CME which "coincidently" closed the candle body exactly on top of that white trendline.
Today, CME is about to open in 2 hours and currently BTC's price should align again with the same trendline.
This is the 1D chart so we need to see confirmation close above to confirm this retest as a new level of support and confirmed breakout to higher highs.
This means if on Monday CME is able to defend this level that should give us the ability for price to retest $71.3k on the spot chart and as soon as we get a 3D close above $71.3k we are starting the next leg of the bull market.
BTC Playbook Trade IdeaMarket experiencing some level of Resistance at Price Zone 70,000 -72,000. Expecting a drop to these marked demand levels
BTC/USD bowl. Breakthrough 64-72. Cyclicality. Nasdaq - BTC.Logarithm. Completion time 1 week. Instead of updating an old idea regarding the Nasdaq Index and BTS on pump cup formation published on 06/17/2023, I decided to implement the idea on a live chart.
Comparative analysis. Fractal. Lag. Bitcoin and Nasdaq
17 06 2023
I have applied the cup percentages as well as the cup with handle if formation occurs (high probability). Although the cycle high targets and timing are the same as what I showed in 2022 during the Bitcoin accumulation phase.
So, for clarity with the last cycle and its highs in 2021.
BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings . 1 07 2022
BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high.
02.09.2023
BTC/USD Main trend (3 years) Channels Triangle
09 2023
At the moment, the price is above the “demons of Solomon” zone, that is 72,000. Zone 64-72 – resistance of the large bowl (last cycle highs 64-69). Let's follow the fractal similarity of 2015-2017. There is a high probability that a rollback will occur slightly higher, and a long-term bullish formation will be formed (trend direction, large time frame) — “Bowl with handle”. Or straight to the psychological level of 100?).
Pay attention to interest rates and price levels in the past and now.
1️⃣ Let me remind you that in April the halving is closer to the 20th. Most likely this will happen on the day "18" . Do you think that bitCocaine will cost 84,018 closer to this time?) What will happen to this zone?
2️⃣ Psychological PR level - the zone for Bitcoin is $100,013.
3️⃣ Everything else probably looks unreal for most market participants, but what is shown now is real, just as it was a very long time ago.
Adhere to these simple rules:
1) Understand and exploit the cyclical nature of the market.
2) Buy low, sell high. And not vice versa like most).
3) Take profits in parts on the hype (now) in a growing trend or protect with a stop loss.
4) Have an understanding of the relationship between the liquidity (capitalization, roughly speaking) of a trading instrument and its volatility and potential.
5) If you trade locally. The crowd is shouting: “cryptocurrency is a scam” - buy it. “Crypto hype” - sell it.
6) Do not be interested in the news and the opinion of the majority, this is all “taken into account in the price movement schedule.”
7) Always have at least 20-30% of stablecoins in reserve. If, for example, in a developing trend there is a correction to quickly remove longs (futures, margin with large shoulders, in spot - stop loss) by a significant%, and some of your stops do not work due to price slippage, then a “cash airbag” will calm and warm you in such an unpleasant moment).
BTC1!Technically, we've been in a rangebound environment since early march, similar to btc price action from december - early february, which culminated in 3 weeks of aggressive markup after having built sufficient cause.
I suspect this time won't be different - 3 or so weeks of aggressive markup likely just around the corner.
The push to 6 figs btc.
BTC rain
All ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
$BTC short term bounce is necessary#bitcoin #btc chart has formed a bullish divergence in LTF. A minor bounce in #btcusd may be expected. Breaking down 67300 #usdt level invalidates.
BTC Playbook Trade IdeaMarket experiencing some level of Resistance at Price Zone 70,000 -72,000. Expecting a drop to these marked demand levels
MBT long/short if-then scenarioIf price returns to discount, then I am looking at Friday's BISI for longs. There is 1D v.POC & t.POC in proximity.
I prefer this first, as untapped t.POC at 69650 is a great initial target for longs
Stop loss near the 67100 local low upon End of Value
The higher probability, if price forces a higher high I am looking for a short
Right above this local high is a t.POC, there is also as SIBI from Thursday. Also a very large volume node & potential for RSI bear div.
I will NOT put blind limits for anything. I will be watching structure on the lower TF (5min) as we approach these key levels; among other edge, & these are just key levels N.F.A.
Cool OffAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
I will continually update all trades.
I'm falling for youAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
I will continually update all trades.
BTC CONTINUOUSLY UPTREND IF NEAREST SUPPORT NOT TURNCOAT.BTC/USD in the light of price action analysis continue their uptrend bearish flag patteren if support remain unbreakable. If we see usd index that improve himself strongly upside that may break support of BTC/USd downward for back test.
NOT MUCH TO EXPLAIN-click to find out other part btc is in a cycle of 4 years... vlaue lows(dec18) a mrk up second day test of lows a dip(march20) .. for our smc people we test the spring . then we halve and accumate oders(dec 20)
then we get our first tp( apr21)to take some profit to add more longs on this move to leverage (july21) then we get our last break of liquidity to the top side our last time to exit all postionsn (nov21)
BTC 2024-2025For the past year another bullish cycle was incepted in BTC. Once again, it started from the key support zone, which represents miners' breakeven price. The strong bullish market sentiment last year was supported by a risk-on environment in financial markets:
Supressed dollar sterngth, decreasing oil and gas prices
Increasing buybacks in the US corporate sector
Strong results of the "magnificent seven" and anticipation of the AI revolution
Fed provided liquidity to mitigate the consequences of the SVB collapse, and decreased the rate of quantitative tightening (QT)
All this provided favorable liquidity conditions in the markets, setting the stage to propel the crypto market. Now that BTC has reached an all-time high (ATH), and on-chain metrics look very strong according to Glassnode, the question remains: will this bullish cycle follow the same pattern as after previous BTC halvings, or will it be somewhat different? As for now I see the following possibilities:
Best-case:
Confidence: 69%
Description: BTC will continue ongoing bullish cycle as during the past cycles. However investors should be aware of the possibility of temporary consolidation before ATH break out (similar to what we saw in spring-summer 2023 before last autumn bull-run).
Min pull-back price: ~50K$
Max target price: >130K$
Base-case:
Confidence: 21%
Description: False ATH breakout will provoke a deeper pull-back before continuation of bullish cycle. In case the price starts sliding down, investors should check how the market reacts on the 50K price zone. Market inability to break ATH after such consolidation, will provoke a deeper pull-back.
Min pull-back price: ~35K$
Max Target price: ~100K$
Worst-case:
Confidence: 10%
Description: False ATH breakout will provoke strong bearish trend to last year low and miners breakeven price range. This will require a black-swan event and rapid deteoration of financial market's sentiment. This is very unlikely because the US government will try all possible means to keep markets strong before the POTUS election.
Min pull-back price: ~20-25K$
Max Target price: ~80K$
Conclusion:
The best-case scenario looks the most probable (69%), there are some factors which may come into play in the foreseeable future and enact downward price pressure:
Having BTC and ETH ETFs approved, investors and traders might follow a psychological pattern of selling the news.
This could be exacerbated this autumn by tighter monetary conditions due to a prolonged period of high rates before the Fed is forced to start easing despite sticky inflation.
Additionally, the BTC halving event might produce a lesser impact during this cycle, as newly mined coins will constitute only a minor share of coins already in circulation.
So there is a slight chance (21%) that the market might behave differently than past bull cycles. Over the course of the year I will continue posting updates on whether the market confirms this outlook, and I'll keep you updated throughout the year if the alternative scenarios unfold.
Bitcoin has already risen in price as much as the direction in wBitcoin has already risen in price as much as the direction in which transactions have bet. Additionally, the volume of trading volume betting upward has decreased, so it is expected to rise again after partial adjustment
BTC Long, possible path to 100k if bulls step in fast and hardBTC has a chance to reach ~100k if it can get above the previous ATH of ~74k considering the recent uptrend and interest since the 57k bottom forming a higher high.
Otherwise, if BTC gets under 65k, it will likely continue its range until Aug and form another pivot. More so, if it closes under 62k on a daily candle. It'll bring consideration of reaching 45k if we close under 57k.
In the event of hyperinflation or BTC exceeding 110k, I suspect it to max out at 145k, 195k, or 235k. 30k-35k is roughly the capitulation zone/hard bottom in a worst-case scenario to where it begins to compromise the network for this cycle.
Note that current prices above 65k are met with extreme resistance for good reason if you're looking at the right charts surrounding liquidity/fair value, pointing toward a cycle top or at least a mid-cycle top similar to 2019. Also, the market shifted bullish at the 70k top on May 20th, so there is consideration for a correction. BTC wouldn't be abnormal to trade as a ranging asset considering how fund managers will likely rebalance/offset risk with the near 100% returns since the ETF's inception. By ranging, I mean both, 74k-57k until Aug, and 74k-30k until EOY. Early June may present itself as an unexpected downward move. Not sure of its strength, guessing -8-10%. Be weary of more geopolitical events affecting price in the coming months.
Overall, the BTC is neutral/bullish in the short term if it can hold 65k and overtake 74k, giving the chance of reaching 100k by Aug. Bearish long term while it is under 75k, vulnerable to ranging to 57k until Aug, or even worse to a low of 35k or 45k through the rest of the year. However, its more probable that the short term neutral/bullish case takes place at current prices and conditions as of when this idea is published.
Long at 67.5k
tp 76k, 85k, 94k, 106k (likely close here)
sl 62.5k
Long at 60k (if prev long got stopped out and we do range) - expires by early Aug if not filled
same tps
sl 55k
Long at 46k
same tps
sl 40k
Bitcoin looks set to rally above 60kWe all know of the strong rally that catapulted to a fresh record high in March. Yet price action since appears to be corrective. Whilst we do not yet know if this is simply the first leg lower of a complex correction, or it is set to break to new highs - only time will tell. However, it appears set for a leg higher over the near term.
Volume retreated with prices since the March high, which is a typical characteristic of a retracement. Yet a final stab lower found support at the 100-day EMA, 38.2% and 50% retracement levels before a mini V-bottom formed. This also coincided with RSI (14) hitting oversold, which I define as below 40 during an uptrend.
The prices have since retreated lower from the rally back above 65k, and showing signs of stability above 60k. The retracement held above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and are now holding above the 50% level.
Bulls could enter live at market with a stop below 60k (or recent swing low) with an initial target at 65.5, a break above which brings 68k into focus - or the highs near the high-volume node.
Buy micro Bitcoin 65720 limit, stop at: 63300, tgt TBDLooking for another leg up on bitcoin, Buy micro Bitcoin 65720 limit, stop at: 63300, tgt TBD
BTC and the current trading rangeI am a #BTC bull, so any contrarians should reverse everything I say from now on.
#Bitcoin halving is days away. The trend following a halving is at least 6-months to the upside. We're already 2 months into a #BTCUSD bull-cycle. So I am bullish in this current trading range, meaning looking for "Buy-the-Dips".
The trading range is from the ATH @ $75185 in the futures down to $61790, so buying under 68470 is my idea of being a "BTD" investor. I thought Wednesday this week was my last chance but the market gods gave everyone at least a second bite at the apple. On review, we could also see $64370 get tested so I am holding out for that level now.
I like the weekly volume analysis as the Points of Control give some decent context to where to look for the trades. If you test the range from the beginning of March SWB:69K is the level everyone is looking to act as a pivot.
Below $62k I crawl back under my rock and think of something else to analyse.
