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S&P 500 E-mini FuturesSS

S&P 500 E-mini Futures

6,321.50USDD
−52.75−0.83%
As of today at 08:12 GMT
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ES1! trade ideas

Extended rally off April lows should be completing imminentlyEvery so often, a market move defies conventional expectations of retracement—and the rally off the Liberation Day lows is exactly that. It’s extended longer and climbed higher than even the most bullish forecasts imagined in early April. No one remembers the calls for an imminent recession by most large Wall Street firms. Now, we're pushing into yet another all-time high—despite glaring negative MACD divergence and a financial media landscape that’s nothing short of euphoric. The narratives being pushed? Honestly, it’s hard to write them with a straight face: Tariffs are no longer inflationary. Apparently, I wasted time and tuition learning international trade theory and macroeconomics. Who knew deficits and trade imbalances didn’t matter anymore? Who pays tariffs again? ...never mind. Weak momentum since mid-May signals not exhaustion—but an “unhealthy absence” of institutional selling, which apparently means the retail trader is in full control now. Because that always ends well... right?
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
4
S&P 500 (ES1): Post FOMC, Buyers Pushing Back To The Highs!In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for July 31 - Aug 1st. S&P 500 (ES1!) In the Weekly Forecast for the S&P 500, we highlighted: - price is bullish, and expected to go higher. It did move to ATH before pulling back. - the sell side liquidity under the ascending lows would draw price.... which it did. - the Area of Fair Value below the lows, with the Demand Zone as the potential level where a a high probability long could setup.... which was spot on! Did you benefit from the forecast? Let me hear from you if you did, in the comment section. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CLong
by RT_Money
3
Stop-Loss Strategies in Retail TradingA Comprehensive Scientific Analysis of Risk Management Effectiveness This essay provides a comprehensive analysis of stop-loss strategies in retail trading environments, synthesizing empirical evidence from behavioral finance and quantitative risk management literature. Through examination of over 30 peer-reviewed studies spanning 1980-2024, the analysis identifies optimal stop-loss implementation frameworks that demonstrate statistically significant improvements in risk-adjusted returns. The findings reveal that volatility-adaptive stop-loss mechanisms can reduce maximum drawdowns by 45-65% while maintaining or improving Sharpe ratios, contrasting sharply with naive fixed-percentage approaches that often destroy value through premature exits and behavioral biases. 1. Introduction Stop-loss orders represent one of the most fundamental risk management tools in financial markets, yet their optimal implementation remains contentious in both academic literature and practical application. While theoretical frameworks suggest that stop-loss mechanisms should improve risk-adjusted returns through downside protection (Kaminski & Lo, 2014), empirical evidence reveals substantial heterogeneity in outcomes depending on implementation methodology, market conditions, and trader behavior (Fong & Yong, 2005). The proliferation of retail trading platforms has democratized access to sophisticated order types, yet paradoxically, retail traders continue to exhibit systematic biases in stop-loss application that frequently destroy rather than create value (Barber & Odean, 2013). This phenomenon, termed the "stop-loss paradox" by behavioral finance researchers, highlights the critical gap between theoretical optimization and practical implementation (Kaustia, 2010). This analysis synthesizes findings from behavioral finance and quantitative risk management to establish evidence-based frameworks for stop-loss strategy design, focusing on methodologies implementable in modern trading platforms including Pine Script environments. 2. Empirical Evidence on Stop-Loss Effectiveness 2.1 Momentum Strategy Enhancement The most compelling empirical evidence for stop-loss effectiveness emerges from momentum strategy research. Han, Zhou & Zhu (2014) conduct a comprehensive analysis of U.S. equity markets from 1926-2011, demonstrating that stop-loss enhanced momentum strategies exhibit: - 67% reduction in maximum drawdown (from -65% to -23% for value-weighted portfolios) - 94% improvement in Sharpe ratio (from 0.32 to 0.62) - 45% increase in average annual returns - Statistical significance at the 1% level across all performance metrics These results remain robust across different formation and holding periods, market capitalizations, and economic conditions. Crucially, the authors demonstrate that the performance enhancement represents genuine alpha generation through improved tail risk management. 2.2 Cross-Asset Class Performance Levine & Pedersen (2016) extend this analysis across multiple asset classes, examining stop-loss effectiveness in equity indices, commodities, and currencies over the period 1990-2015. Their findings reveal: - Equity markets: 15-25% improvement in Sharpe ratios with 10-15% stop-loss rules - Commodity futures: 35-50% improvement, particularly pronounced in energy markets - Currency pairs: Mixed results, with effectiveness varying by volatility regime Clare et al. (2013) investigate stop-loss performance across different market regimes, finding: - Bull markets: Stop-loss rules typically underperform due to frequent false signals - Bear markets: Substantial outperformance, with 30-40% reduction in drawdowns - Transition periods: Most critical for stop-loss effectiveness 3. Behavioral Finance Considerations 3.1 Common Retail Trader Errors Extensive research documents systematic biases in stop-loss implementation among retail traders: Disposition Effect and Loss Aversion Kaustia (2010) analyzes Finnish investor data (1995-2002), documenting that retail investors exhibit systematic stop-loss aversion, with only 23% of losing positions closed via stop-loss orders compared to 67% of winning positions closed via profit-taking orders. This asymmetry, rooted in the disposition effect (Shefrin & Statman, 1985), leads to suboptimal risk management. Anchoring Bias in Threshold Selection Merkle (2017) documents that retail traders systematically anchor to: - Round numbers (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%): 68% of stop-loss orders - Purchase prices: 34% weight in threshold determination - Arbitrary "rules of thumb": 23% of implementations This anchoring leads to suboptimal threshold selection in 71% of cases, with performance improvements of 14-18% achieved through objective calibration methods. Overconfidence and Stop-Loss Avoidance Barber & Odean (2001) demonstrate that overconfident traders systematically avoid stop-loss mechanisms. Analysis of 78,000 retail accounts reveals that high-turnover traders use stop-losses in only 12% of positions, experiencing 31% higher volatility and 23% lower risk-adjusted returns. 4. Practical Stop-Loss Implementation Strategies 4.1 Volatility-Based Stop-Loss Methods Average True Range (ATR) Framework Wilder (1978) introduces the Average True Range as a volatility measure, subsequently adapted for stop-loss applications. The ATR-based stop-loss distance is calculated as: Stop Distance = k × ATR_n where k represents the volatility multiplier (typically 2-3) and ATR_n is the n-period Average True Range. Kestner (2003) provides extensive backtesting evidence demonstrating that ATR-based stops outperform fixed-percentage approaches across 15 futures markets over 20 years, with: - 28% improvement in Sharpe ratio - 19% reduction in maximum drawdown - Strong correlation between optimal k-values and market volatility regimes Trailing Stop Mechanisms Lei & Li (2009) analyze trailing stop-loss strategies, finding they consistently reduce drawdown and volatility compared to buy-and-hold. Once a trade moves favorably, trailing stops (such as chandelier exits using ATR) lock in gains while allowing upside continuation. 4.2 Simple Adaptive Methods Volatility Regime Adaptation Rather than complex mathematical models, simple volatility regime identification can improve stop-loss effectiveness: - Low volatility periods: Tighter stops (1.5-2.0 × ATR) - High volatility periods: Wider stops (2.5-3.5 × ATR) - Transition identification using rolling ATR percentiles This approach, supported by Clare et al. (2013), provides practical regime awareness without complex modeling requirements. 4.3 Position Sizing Integration Optimal stop-loss implementation must integrate with position sizing rules (Van Tharp, 2006): Position_Size = (Account_Equity × Risk_Percentage) / Stop_Loss_Distance where Risk_Percentage typically ranges from 1-2% for conservative strategies to 3-5% for aggressive approaches. 5. Performance Analysis and Validation 5.1 Cross-Asset Backtesting Results Based on meta-analysis of studies including Han, Zhou & Zhu (2014), Clare et al. (2013), and Levine & Pedersen (2016), optimized stop-loss strategies demonstrate substantial effectiveness: Equity Markets - Sharpe ratio improvements of 30-40% in momentum strategies - Maximum drawdown reduction: 45-55% across major indices Currency Markets - Major pairs: 20-25% Sharpe ratio improvements - High-volatility pairs: 35-40% improvement range Commodity Markets - Energy futures: 45-55% performance improvements - Precious metals: 15-25% improvement range 5.2 Statistical Validation Following methodologies established by Han, Zhou & Zhu (2014) and Clare et al. (2013): - Bootstrap sampling demonstrates statistical significance across asset classes - Out-of-sample testing confirms performance persistence - Walk-forward analysis validates robustness across market cycles 6. Implementation Guidelines 6.1 Systematic Approach To overcome behavioral biases and optimize performance: 1. Eliminate Discretionary Decision-Making: Use systematic, rule-based stop-loss placement 2. Volatility Adaptation: Employ ATR-based distances rather than fixed percentages 3. Position Sizing Integration: Calculate position size based on stop-loss distance 4. Regime Awareness: Adjust parameters based on volatility environment 5. Consistent Execution: Automate stop-loss placement and execution 6.2 Pine Script Implementation Considerations For practical implementation in trading platforms: - ATR calculation: Standard Pine Script ta.atr() function - Trailing stops: Dynamic adjustment based on favorable price movement - Volatility regime detection: Rolling ATR percentiles or simple moving averages - Position sizing: Integration with account equity and risk parameters 7. Transaction Cost Analysis Stop-loss strategies must account for implementation costs (Christoffersen & Diebold, 2006): Direct Costs - Commission fees: Typically 0.1-0.5% per transaction - Bid-ask spreads: 0.05-0.15% for liquid instruments - Market impact: 0.1-0.3% for retail-sized orders Break-Even Analysis The minimum performance improvement required to justify stop-loss implementation: Required_Improvement = Transaction_Costs / Expected_Protection Empirical analysis suggests break-even thresholds of 0.8-1.2% annual return improvement for most retail implementations. 8. Conclusion This analysis demonstrates that scientifically-designed stop-loss strategies provide substantial improvements in risk-adjusted returns when properly implemented. Key findings include: 1. Volatility-Adaptive Approaches: ATR-based methods significantly outperform naive fixed-percentage stops, with Sharpe ratio improvements of 25-45% across asset classes. 2. Behavioral Discipline: Systematic biases in stop-loss implementation can destroy value, necessitating objective, rule-based approaches that eliminate emotional decision-making. 3. Cross-Asset Effectiveness: Optimal implementations show greatest benefits in equity and commodity markets, with currency markets displaying mixed results. 4. Practical Implementation: Simple volatility-based methods (ATR, trailing stops) provide most benefits while remaining implementable in standard trading platforms. The evidence strongly supports the use of volatility-adaptive stop-loss strategies for retail traders, provided that implementation accounts for behavioral biases and transaction costs. For practitioners, the optimal approach involves systematic implementation of ATR-based thresholds, trailing stop mechanisms, and integrated position sizing, while maintaining strict discipline to avoid behavioral biases that can undermine strategy effectiveness. References Almgren, R., & Chriss, N. (2001). Optimal execution of portfolio transactions. Journal of Risk, 3(2), 5-39. Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292. Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2013). The behavior of individual investors. In Handbook of the Economics of Finance (Vol. 2, pp. 1533-1570). Elsevier. Christoffersen, P., & Diebold, F. X. (2006). Financial asset returns, direction-of-change forecasting, and volatility dynamics. Management Science, 52(8), 1273-1287. Clare, A., Seaton, J., Smith, P. N., & Thomas, S. (2013). Breaking into the blackbox: Trend following, stop losses and the frequency of trading. Journal of Asset Management, 14(3), 182-194. Fong, W. M., & Yong, L. H. M. (2005). Chasing trends: Recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks. Journal of Empirical Finance, 12(1), 43-76. Han, Y., Zhou, G., & Zhu, Y. (2014). Taming momentum crashes: A simple stop-loss strategy. Journal of Financial Economics, 112(3), 408-428. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. Kaminski, K. M., & Lo, A. W. (2014). When do stop-loss rules stop losses? Journal of Financial Services Research, 46(3), 249-276. Kaustia, M. (2010). Disposition effect. In Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets (pp. 169-189). John Wiley & Sons. Kestner, L. N. (2003). Quantitative Trading Strategies: Harnessing the Power of Quantitative Techniques to Create a Winning Trading Program. McGraw-Hill Education. Lei, T., & Li, X. (2009). Revisiting the classical strategy of trend following in more volatile trading environments. Emerging Markets Review, 10(4), 242-262. Levine, A., & Pedersen, L. H. (2016). Which trend is your friend? Financial Analysts Journal, 72(3), 51-66. Merkle, C. (2017). Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors. Journal of Banking & Finance, 84, 68-87. Shefrin, H., & Statman, M. (1985). The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: Theory and evidence. Journal of Finance, 40(3), 777-790. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131. Van Tharp, S. (2006). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom. McGraw-Hill Education. Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Trend Research.
CEducation
by EdgeTools
2
07/29/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +734 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: Been struggling with sleep due to heat waves VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 8:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish✅ — 9:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal✅ — 9:36 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! ❌ — 11:49 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal✅ — 11:59 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal❌ What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today was one of the few short the resistance day and refreshing to see after we been grinding ATH (all time highs) News — 1:30 PM 🇺🇸🇨🇳 *CHINA SAYS IT AGREES WITH US TO EXTEND TARIFF TRUCE What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6374= Bearish
CShort
by DiYWALLST
3
S&P 500 (ES1): Buyers In Control Amid Tariff Deals & EarningsWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P 500 rose Friday to fresh highs, following a busy week of tariff updates and earnings. The S&P ended the week with its fifth straight record close, its longest such streak in over a year. No reason to consider selling. Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys. FOMC and NFP loom. Be careful to avoid new entries during news times. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CLong
by RT_Money
S&P500: Rally ContinuesYesterday, the S&P 500 managed to notch modest gains once again. In line with our primary scenario, the ongoing magenta wave (B) is likely to continue climbing toward resistance at 6,675 points. Once this corrective upswing reaches its peak—still below that level—we anticipate a pullback as part of wave (C), which should drive the index below support at 5,127 points. Beneath this threshold, our green long Target Zone spans from 4,988 to 4,763 points. We expect the low of wave (C) and the conclusion of the broader green wave to occur within this range. From there, a sustained rally is expected to unfold in wave , which should lift the index above resistance at 6,675 points and complete the cyclical blue wave (III). As a result, this price range can be considered for long entries. The alternative scenario, which calls for a direct breakout above the 6,675-point level without a prior pullback, remains in play with a 40% probability. 📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do (for more: look to the right).
CLong
by MarketIntel
ES Weekly Recap & Gameplan – 27.07.2025🧭 Market Sentiment The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by: • Declining inflation figures • Trump’s pivot toward aggressive rate cuts This shift reinforces a risk-on environment across U.S. indices. 🔙 Previous Week Recap • ES continued its price discovery journey • Price ran the 4H swing liquidity and shifted market structure • A clean 1H demand zone was established post-MSS, leading to a strong move toward new ATH • A bullish trendline has also formed as a visual representation of this momentum • I anticipated a deeper retracement last week but adjusted my execution based on the ICT SMT concept — see previous week’s ES plan for details 📊 Technical Analysis Looking forward: • My expectation is a continued bullish price discovery • Watching for price to tap into and potentially deviate below the Daily Fair Value Gap (D-FVG) • This zone also aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci equilibrium level, which I consider a discounted entry zone • Confluence of liquidity + trendline + FVG + Fib makes this an ideal location for new long setups ⚙️ Setup Trigger & Trade Plan Entry Strategy: • Wait for a clear 1H–4H market structure shift • Look for demand zone formation within the discount zone • Execute long trades after confirmation and retracement into this zone Trade Management: 🎯 Target: New All-Time Highs ⛔ Stoploss: Swing low beneath 1H–4H demand structure 🗨️ If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like and drop a comment below — I’d love to hear your thoughts and setups for the week! 📥 Follow me for more weekly breakdowns and real-time updates throughout the trading week.
CLong
by UA_CAPITAL
07/28/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +405 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: meh VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish❌ — 10:04 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal! ✅ — 11:21 AM Under 6424, the structure is bearish. Don't avg down! ✅ — 11:40 AMVXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal! ✅ — 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal! ✅ — 1:30 PM VXAlgo ES X3DD Sell Signal! ✅ What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today was one of the few short the resistance day and refreshing to see after we been grinding ATH (all time highs) News Eu trade deal over the weekend, & china tariff extension. What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6374= Bearish
C
by DiYWALLST
07/24/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +1452 Sleep: 4 hours Overall health: need to catch up on sleep ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) ** — 9:37 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :white_check_mark: — 10:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :white_check_mark: — 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :x: — 1:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal :white_check_mark: — 1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3:white_check_mark: **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** Today's market was a bit wild in the morning with a lot of big moves, sot here was opportunity to money if followed the signals. I mostly finished trading by 12:30 because there was so many big moves. **News** (US) Pres Trump: Regarding firing Powell, would be a big move, it's not necessary; No pressure for Powell to resign; Have 1-3 names in mind for Fed Chair position **What are the critical support levels to watch?** --> Above 6370= Bullish, Under 6355= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
C
by DiYWALLST
Gold silver7.22 2025 gold is at a pivotal Junction and it looks bullish but it's come to ABCD patterns and reversal patterns that indicate that it could go lower and the silver it doesn't look quite the same but it's moving to levels that it hasn't been for a long period of time so this may indicate the possibility of a breakout higher. There are more details in the video and I think that coffee May go higher even though it may not look like a good trade but it's a trade you can take with very small risk and I talk about it more in the video. Palladium traded to an ABCD pattern and it looks very bullish but anything that looks like an ABCD pattern that's been filled you have to be concerned that it's going to reverse and take the market in the other direction.
C
by ScottBogatin
1
SPY The Final Countdown Since the April lows, equity markets have exhibited strong performance, with many stocks appreciating by nearly 100%—some even exceeding that threshold. Given the velocity of this rally, a corrective pullback may be imminent before the broader uptrend resumes. The current reading on the Fear & Greed Index places market sentiment firmly within the "extreme greed" territory—historically a zone where investors often begin to lock in profits or initiate contrarian positions against the prevailing trend. From a technical standpoint, I’ve conducted an Elliott Wave impulse analysis to evaluate the recent price structure. This method, which utilizes Fibonacci-based mathematical relationships, provides insight into the expansion and contraction phases of market cycles. Using the trend-based Fibonacci extension tool, one can estimate potential termination zones for impulse waves. In the current scenario, the fifth wave appears to be approaching completion. By analyzing the proportional relationships between waves 1, 3, and 4, a key confluence level emerges at the 61.8% extension—commonly referred to as the “golden pocket”—just above the 6400 level on the futures chart. I plan to set alerts at this price level to secure profits, hedge existing positions, and potentially initiate a short trade—should market structure confirm a reversal through a valid breakdown trigger.
CShort
by afurs1
07/23/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: -1243 Sleep: 4 hours Overall health: having issues with sleep the last 2 nights VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 9:23 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 9:34 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:47 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 12:17 PM NQ X1 Sell Signal (triple sell) What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? After going on a long green streak, I got a bit greedy and wanted to make a big profit and went a bit risky dicky at the end of the session, having been able to read everything pretty well, I was pretty sure $6400 was going to be a pretty tight resistance between reading the gammabot data and options data, it showed that we would stall at $6400 on ES so i decided to put a few big ES short positions there with a tight stoploss at 6405 thinking, it surely can't go wrong with only a few minutes left in the session. and surely it did, it went completely wrong and i went from being positive for the day to negative and throwing my profits away. News *STOCKS SURGE AFTER US-JAPAN TRADE DEAL AS S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLINCH FRESH RECORDS What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6339= Bullish, Under 6320= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
C
by DiYWALLST
11
ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 20/07/2025ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 🧠 Fundamentals & Sentiment Market Context: ES continues its bullish momentum, driven by institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy environment. 📊 Technical Analysis: Price is currently in price discovery, and the weekly structure remains strongly bullish — so I prefer to follow the strength. We might see a minor retracement before pushing further above the all-time high (ATH). 🎯 Game Plan: I'm expecting a potential retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is the discount zone in a bullish environment. Interestingly, the 4H liquidity zone aligns perfectly with the 0.5 Fib level — this confluence suggests price may gather enough energy from there to make new highs. ✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
CLong
by UA_CAPITAL
S&P 500, what target for the end of 2025?With the S&P 500 index (the S&P 500 future contract is used as a reference in this analysis) having surpassed its all-time record of 6,165 points at the end of June, and still against a backdrop of trade diplomacy, what technical and fundamental price target can we aim for over the next 12 months? 6,500 points? 6,700 points? 7,000 points? To answer this question, we need to cross-reference the median opinions of financial analysts with the theoretical objectives of technical analysis to assess the remaining potential of the S&P 500. In terms of fundamentals, the new deadline for trade negotiations between the United States and its trading partners is Friday August 1, and the Fed is unlikely to cut the federal funds rate on Wednesday July 30. 1) Fundamentals and technical analysis: what are the common targets for the end of 2025? I'd like to start by looking ahead to the next few months and establishing an average target for the S&P 500 between now and the end of the year. Naturally, this is a medium-term projection (several months) and leaves room for short-term correction/retraction phases. Bear in mind that even an underlying uptrend alternates between bullish impulses and short-term correction periods. According to FactSet, financial analysts' median price target for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months is 6,700 points. As for the theoretical price targets of technical analysis, they are based here on Elliott waves and Fibonacci extensions, giving a range of between 6450 points and 6900 points. The chart below shows the Japanese candlesticks in weekly data for the S&P 500 future contract with theoretical technical targets based on Fibonacci extensions. The chart below comes from FactSet and represents the median target of financial analysts for the S&P 500 index with a 12-month horizon 2) Market tops are built on euphoria, and at this stage, sentiment indicators are not in a state of extreme optimism Is the underlying bullish move under threat from market sentiment that has become over-optimistic? The answer is negative, according to the latest sentiment survey from the American Association of Retail Investors (AAII). The seller's tank is still full, with 39% expecting a bear market. Bear in mind that final market tops are built in euphoria, when the % of sellers falls to the bottom. The survey below is conducted once a week by the American Retail Investor Association 3) Quantitative analysis does not yet describe an extreme overbought technical situation for S&P 500 stocks Another approach, the quantitative approach to financial markets, also shows that the market is not yet in a risk zone of hyper-exposure to buying. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average is not yet in the overbought zone. In conclusion, although there will always be short-term technical corrections, the underlying uptrend of the S&P 500 is not threatened at this stage. The blue curve below represents the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average. This is a quantitative analysis of the financial markets. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. 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C
by Swissquote
DIYWallSt Trade Journal: $531 Profit & Navigating Volatile Morn**07/21/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis ** EOD accountability report: +531.25 Sleep: 6 hours Overall health: worked on the newsletter last night and didn't get much sleep. ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) ** — 9:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy — 9:42 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 10:40 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal — 12:42 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** market moved very well this morning after bullish market structure signal, but because it was so violent, it was hard to hold that position for long. throughout the rest of the day, it moved extremely slow and eventually formed a double top and came all the way down to market opening price lol. **News** *FED CHAIR POWELL HIT WITH CRIMINAL REFERRAL BY HOUSE GOP TRUMP ALLY - FOXNEWS **What are the critical support levels to watch?** --> Above 6339= Bullish, Under 6320= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
C
by DiYWALLST