March '25 Contract Roll GapCool reaction from the March 2025 rollover gap. Price created a BPR - Overlapping a bullish gap by a bearish gap
ESH2014 trade ideas
ES Futures -
ES Futures Current week Plan ( 19 - Jan -2025 )
ES is currently making HH and HL , I am currently watching for a potential BID Spots .
1st zone - Break and retest of previous High + 50 DMA + Trend line break & retest
2nd zone - PDL sweep + Trend line Support
3rd zone - Break and retest of 14 jan high which is not yet retested
Enter shorts at your own risk and never fight against the trend .
MES: Ice and Fire Could Blow the U.S. Economy Off its CourseCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) #Microfutures
In “A Song of Ice and Fire”, American author George Martin painted a mystical land where dragons spit out flame to destroy a whole city and a winter that last one hundred years. Game of Thrones, the popular HBO TV series, was adapted from Martin’s book.
In 2025, we seem to be reliving these moments. California wildfires have claimed dozens of lives, burnt down thousands of homes, and caused an estimated $250 billion in damage.
Meanwhile, Winter Storm Blair raged coast-to-coast, bringing heavy snow across the Great Plain to Mid-Atlantic. The storms shut down interstate highways, caused thousands of airport delays and racked up 350,000 power outages. At the time of this writing, Polar Vortex is bringing freezing temperature back to the lower 48 states.
These weather perils are very destructive. In my opinion, the forces of nature could cause real damage to the entire U.S. economy.
Firstly, we could see a rebound in inflation
The Bureau of Statistics (BLS) reported that US CPI increased 0.4% in December and went up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY). Of which, the energy index decreased 0.5% YoY with energy commodities gasoline and fuel oil falling 3.4% and 13.1%, respectively. In contrast, energy services such as electricity increased 2.8% and natural gas (piped) rose 4.9% YoY.
The chart shows a correlation between CPI and natural gas prices. The underlying logic is the U.S. economic reliance on natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 43.1% of the electricity in the country was generated by natural gas.
In “Nat Gas: Trading the Weather”, I explained how cold temperatures increase natural gas demand for generating electricity and heating up homes.
Higher natural gas prices affect not just the storm-hit regions, the entire country also bears a higher cost for energy services. Larger utility bills raise the cost of producing and distributing all goods and services.
A leading indicator: When natural gas prices rise, inflation will likely go up.
Conclusion: As natural gas went up sharply, we could expect a higher CPI for January.
Secondly, we could see economic slowdown and higher unemployment
Many businesses in the passage of winter storms suffered loss of sales. People in parts of Los Angles were evacuated. The total cost for insurance payout, loss of revenue, debris cleanup and rebuilding amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Total US GDP was $28 trillion last year, or about $2.3 trillion per month. A quick calculation shows that the weather perils could shave off 1/10th of the US national output for the month of January!
Many S&P 500 companies are based in California or in the storm-hit regions. The actual damage to them will be revealed when they report quarterly earnings in April and May. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report Q1 GDP on April 30th.
US unemployment has been on the rise since mid-2023. In my opinion, the A.I. driven technological revolution is responsible for many High-Tech layoffs. On January 10th, the BLS released its nonfarm payroll report and showed that unemployment in the Information sector was 98,000 in December 2024, up from 86,000 a year ago.
December is the busiest month for the Retail sector. However, retailers report total unemployment of 897,000 for the month, up 87,000 or 11% from December 2023.
When the BLS updates its payroll report in January, I expect to see higher unemployment data. The month-to-month data could be even worse, as January is usually a slow month after the December holiday season. In addition, winter storms and wildfires would push more businesses to shut down and lay off employees.
Finally, the uncertainty around economic policies under the new administration
I expect President Trump to raise “ice and fire” on his own. If his first term is any guide, we would see plenty of drastic policy changes impacting various industries. Uncertainties are not well embraced in the world of investment. Any new policy initiative could bring the market to chaos when the news breaks, regardless of its long-term effect.
During the first term, important policies (such as new tariff) were usually announced from Twitter tweets. This time around, they would likely come out of Truth Social tweets.
Trading with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
In my opinion, the U.S. stock market will face more volatility in the coming months. Key economic data could be disappointing for investors.
• When the January nonfarm payroll report is released on February 7th, monthly employment data could trend lower, while unemployment rate ticks up. Signals of economic weakness could send the stock market lower.
• When the January CPI data is released on February 12th, the headline inflation could move higher. If this is the case, the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates. The stock market will face downward pressure.
• The Fed will meet on January 29th. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the futures market prices a Fed decision of no-change at 97.9%. However, the market consensus shows that Fed Funds rates could drop to 3.25-4.00% by December, indicating 1-4 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed has not committed to any further rate cut.
www.cmegroup.com
Given these scenarios, a trader could explore short-term opportunities by shorting the S&P 500 prior to the Big Report Dates.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report provides further support to this thinking. The latest data shows that, as of January 14th, Leverage Funds hold 151,543 long positions and 448,908 short positions for E-Mini S&P 500 futures.
Despite the S&P nearing its all-time high, “Smart Money” already turns bearish. Shorts outweigh longs by a 3-to-1 ratio.
• They are also bearish on Nasdaq 100, by a 1:2 long-short ratio (43,254 vs. 82,724)
• This contrasts with the Dow contracts sharply. Leverage funds own Micro Dow by a 3:2 long-short ratio (17,591 vs. 10,051) during the same period.
The MES contracts offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark S&P 500 futures (ES) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of $5 times the S&P 500 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract.
Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,095,979 contracts were traded on Thursday, January 16th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 129,228.
Buying or selling 1 MES contract requires an initial margin of $1,525. With Friday closing price of 6,040, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $30,200. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=30200/1525).
Hypothetically, if S&P futures price falls 10% to 5,436, the price change of 604 points (6,040-5,436) will translate into $3,020 in profit for a short position, given each index point equal to $5 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,525 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 198% (=3020/1525).
The risk to short Micro S&P is that the US stock market continues its spectacular rally. To limit the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss when entering a short position.
For illustration, a short trade executed at 6,040 could be combined with a 6,200 stop. If the S&P goes up to 6,500, the trader’s position would be liquidated well before that. The maximum loss would be $800 (= (6200-6040) * $5).
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
$ES1 Could Break UP!!Bearish Divergence not playing out. When divergences don't play out, the moves should be strong...In the OPPOSITE direction.
Be cautious on the long sideThe structure in the S&P 500 implies being cautious on the long side. The next objective to the upside is 6150.
MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/24/25MES1!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/24/25
📈 6190.25 (NEXT LEVELS: 6166.25, 6220)
📉 6094.75 (NEXT LEVELS: 6118.75, 6075.5, 6065.25)
*The target levels have experienced some discrepancies over the past few days, prompting adjustments to enhance accuracy. We are highly confident in the revised target levels for tomorrow, Friday, the 24th. Thanks!*
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
SPX Futures in 8H timeframe Hello
According to EW principles, one of the most controversial analysis in the market is to count a corrective waves and it is exactly what is happening for SPX. There are only one more scenario and it is when we count (ABC) down to RED CIRCLE all that happened is considered as wave 1 of 5 (green counting).
I am waiting to see what will happen for out trend when it touched upper boundary of the channel.
In all scenarios this is not the trade time for S&P.
Thanks
ES continue with the UptrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5999.00.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
Can we finished the week with confidence?The expectation is for buyers in the S&P 500 finish the week with a confident close above 6170.
Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 Futures (ES) Looking to Resume HighShort Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests that rally to new all time high on 12.16.2024 at 6163.75 ended wave ((3)). Pullback in wave ((4)) is proposed complete at 5808.4 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave ((4)) unfolded in a double three structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave (W) ended at 5866 and wave (X) ended at 6107.5. Wave (Y) lower ended at 5809 which completed wave ((4)).
The Index has turned higher in wave ((5)), but it still needs to break above wave ((3)) at 6163.75 to rule out a double correction. Up from wave ((4)), wave ((i)) ended at 5918.5 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 5842.50. Index nested higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5898.75 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 5848.75. Wave (iii) higher ended at 6017.50 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 5961.75. Final leg wave (v) ended at 6078.25 which completed wave ((iii)). Dips in wave ((iv)) ended at 5994.5. Expect wave ((v)) to complete soon which should end wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 1.13.2025 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher.
OIL THE RUSSELL THE ES SPENDING TIME ON REVERSAL PATTERNS JANUARY 24TH the es has traded to a double top and its all-time high and I explained why I would not be buying that Market at this time and I compared it to the Russell and why I would be more inclined to short that market as a shorting the ES. we took a quick look at Gold went over some details with the es that could have had 1 or 2 extensions that could influence a trade decision now versus later.
Confident closeThe close in the S&P 500 daily chart on Friday was a confident close going into the holiday weekend. Positive movement to the next level is 6060 on the shortened trading session on Monday.
ES Futures Trade Idea - Trump Inauguration MLK weekMacroeconomic News:
US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ES, NQ and YM futures saw mild gains yesterday, RTY futures outperformed.
As the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump took the oath of office promising to protect the border, address inflation, and restructure trade policies. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty and signing orders to cancel 78 Biden-era acts, he also started energy production reforms, such as drilling for oil in the Arctic. Trump discussed agreements over TikTok ownership, threatened global tariffs, and suggested imposing duties on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. He urged a speedy conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine and gave top priority to evaluating China's adherence to trade agreements. Trump stopped importing oil from Venezuela, emphasized energy independence, and lifted sanctions on Israeli settlers. The goal of bold measures is to put American workers and security first.
Following yesterday's strong selling pressure, which was brought on by the announcement that President Trump would not impose tariffs on the first day of his presidency, the dollar is now showing signs of recovery. Nevertheless, Trump's statement that he is considering 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and believes they would be implemented on February 1st shattered trade confidence overnight.
In our opinion, buy the rumor-sell the fact, sell the rumor-buy the fact, will likely be a key theme during Trump’s presidential term.
ES Futures update:
As we can see in the chart above, ES futures are currently above our Line in the Sand, Yearly Open at 5,949.25.
ES futures also made a higher low on Jan 13th, 2025 compared to Nov 4th, 2024 swing low.
ES futures formed a bull flag after the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Price has now broken out of the bull flag channel.
Key Levels to Watch
Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan.
Jan 6th Weekly Hi: 6,068.25
Jan 13th Weekly Hi: 6,051.50
Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25
Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115
Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155
All time highs: 6,184.50
Scenario 1: Breakout continuation
Price has broken out of bull flag formation from the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Break above current area of consolidation marked in Blue zone forming the area between Jan 6th and Jan 13th Weekly Highs. Price heads towards R1, R2 and R3 targets.
Scenario 2: Further consolidation
Price further consolidates this week awaiting a catalyst to trend higher next week. Strong earnings season propels US futures and stocks higher.
We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
AMP Futures - How to reverse positionsIn this idea we will demonstrate how to reverse positions on the chart and DOM.
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan 24thES has been on an 8-day winning streak, with momentum still riding off Monday’s 6020 Failed Breakdown. Yesterday’s reclaim of 6115 drove the move to my key targets at 6136 and 6154, both hit.
As of now:
• 6135 = support; holding above keeps 6161, 6172, and 6185 in play
• If 6135 fails, expect a dip to 6115, then 6098-6105
AMP Futures - How to access Futures optionsIn this idea we will demonstrate how to access Futures options using the Tradingview platform.
Neutral set upThe structure on Tuesday in the S&P 500 daily chart is neutral going into Wednesday's CPI numbers. This creates a 50-50 type structure but I think the bias is for move to the upside.
M15 'Real' Market StructureFor those who are interested in what we do inside traderbuddy (besides the 28Dto100K Challenge offcourse).
Here is a markup M15 ES with 'Real' Market Structure.
For clarity, offically we are still in a downtrend on the M15 and waiting to see how it will react to the 'Extreme'
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan21stYesterday showcased a textbook display of failed breakdown trades in ES, with targets at 6066 (hit), 6074 (hit), and 6087 yet to be hit. Mentioned sunday 6005 would be actionable on a test an recovery and buyers agreed late monday. We’ve tapped 6066 three times, creating a tricky chop zone from 6066 to 6016-20—over-trading here can be costly.
As of now:
• 6043 = support to keep 6066, 6074, and 6087+ in play
• If 6043 fails, look to sell down to 6033 and 6016-20
Follow-through is expectedFollow-through from buyers in the S&P 500 market is expected. The next objective is 6100. Ideally a close above this level what happened within the next two days.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/23/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/23/25
📈 6166 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
📉 6056.75 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
1/2 way mark 📈 6138.75 & 📉 6084.25
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning update Jan 23rdYesterday, my final target for ES was 6137, and we reached 6135.75 before sellers stepped in. Now, the market is working on a base, creating some tricky chop.
As of now:
• Expect 6105-6135 chop, with 6115 as the mid-pivot
• Reclaiming 6115 targets 6123 and 6135+
• If 6105 fails, look for a selloff to 6087 and 6072
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.20 - 1.24Market closed outside of Value after failing under 6074 - 54 HTF Edge.
We are set to open inside 6064 - 23 Intraday Range unless market gaps under/over after Mondays Holiday but if we open inside it then that tells us we are over Value and there are two thing we can do here, continue grinding/balancing inside the Intraday Range and try to push towards/into above Edge ?
Or do we find more selling over Value that would bring us back into/under VAH, if we get under VAH we would be under Daily Stops so that could trigger moves towards the Mean/VAL of the range. If we do get back inside the Value we could find support and holds around it BUT careful if we take out out and get under Value, that can bring in more weakness for lower targets where we would watch for any continuation.
IF the strength from last week stays, for us to see any bigger prices out of this HTF Range we would need to hold over VAH and have a strong push into or over the above Edge that would stay over, until then we have December supply trapped over 6050 - 74 so we may stay under this area and most of December Supply is valued over 930 - 70s and we have January month end approaching which means if more size needs to lighten the bag that could trigger some lower destinations.
