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S&P 500 E-mini FuturesSS

S&P 500 E-mini Futures

6,009.00USDD
−20.00−0.33%
As of today at 03:59 GMT
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ES1! trade ideas

April 25, 2025 - Trump’s Tango, Tech, and Insider DramaHello everyone, it’s April 25, 2025. We’re closing in on Trump’s 100-day mark back in the White House, and if there’s one word to sum up his impact on markets: chaos. With 137 executive orders signed already, he’s turned global markets into a high-stakes rollercoaster though this week saw signs of recovery, confidence remains fragile, and volatility is still running the show. The main trigger? You guessed it: Trump and his tariff diplomacy. After weeks of U-turns, threats, and NYSE:TWTR meltdowns, he’s finally announced that talks with China have begun. That was enough to send the AMEX:SPY up 2%, pull the CME_MINI:NQ1! out of correction territory (+2.74%), and ignite a 5.63% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, even though it’s still miles below its all-time high. OANDA:XAUUSD is sitting at $3,332, BLACKBULL:WTI hovers around $63.21, and INDEX:BTCUSD has skyrocketed to $93,200. Not bad for a week that started in total disarray. Now here’s where things get fishy: US indices started climbing before Trump’s announcement—classic “somebody knew something.” Insider trading? Just your average Thursday. And while Trump claims talks are underway, the Chinese side played coy, denying any ongoing negotiations. Either someone’s lying, or the talks are happening over dim sum in DC. Beyond geopolitics, NASDAQ:GOOG crushed earnings expectations and added a juicy dividend and GETTEX:70B in buybacks, exploding 6% after-hours. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:INTC flopped—flat profits, poor outlook, and a CEO trying to turn cost-cutting into a growth story. The market wasn’t buying it: down 5.7% after-hours. NYSE:NOW , though, is living its best life. Strong results, AI momentum, and federal contracts boosted shares 15%. Other names like NASDAQ:PEP , NYSE:PG , and NASDAQ:AAL warned on the future thanks to—you guessed it—political and economic uncertainty. On the macro front, ECONOMICS:USIJC (US jobless claims) ticked higher, inflation seems to be cooling, and if next week’s PCE and employment data confirm the slowdown, the Fed might just blink and cut rates in May. Market hopes are pinned on Powell holding steady—unless, of course, Trump decides to live-tweet through it. Futures are up 0.37% ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) this morning, signaling optimism—possibly misplaced—in Trump’s “friendly” overtures toward China. Let’s just say we’re one golf game away from another market tantrum. Enjoy your weekend, stay alert, and cross your fingers for a quiet Sunday tweet-wise.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SmartApingAI
SP500 what to expect next?As a seasoned trader with over a decade of experience navigating the markets, I’ve been closely monitoring the S&P 500’s current price action. The index is presently confined within a well-defined range, with resistance at 5,528 and support at 5,146, based on recent price behavior. We’ve observed a notable deviation below the lower boundary of this range, which often signals a potential reversal or absorption of liquidity before a move higher. My analysis suggests the next likely target is the upper boundary of the range at 5,528, coinciding with a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has yet to be filled. Should the price approach this zone, I anticipate a strong market reaction, potentially driven by aggressive order flow as participants defend or challenge this key level. If the weekly FVG is invalidated—meaning price sweeps through this area without significant rejection—the S&P 500 could be poised to break out and target new all-time highs from its current position.
CLong
by Almenio
S&P 500 futures/SPY idea and simple parallel channel crossSo as you can see by a few minutes worth of doodling...there seems to be an interesting dilemma. While a lot points to a new breakout, be it news that literally changes nothing structurally for actual customer buying or future sales....it's said to be a new bull run. Yet, just a simple glance at a modified volume chart in relation to the E-mini above....there is something funny arising. Almost like treasury yields-to-bonds, as the market slides the volume increases. And it concaves as it goes back up. But the right most part of the chart doesn't seem to agree with that. You are ripping higher but your volume is increasing. (Those yellow bars are sell volume, and if they look patchy in spots, it's because the buy volume is colored black. This is done to emphasize a trend and to see more clearly if it is strong for buying or strong for selling.) Back to the idea at hand....so just a possibility- but what if that volume going down while the recent slide on Monday occurred was positioning of a certain group who would get their que from a certain announcement from the Musky-Man. Ergo, the sells aren't really happening but the buying is, so that way when everyone jumps in they unleash selling. To which the concave occurs on the market pullback and the convex, going up, occurs as the market heads up. It's not some new thing (volume up on highs and down on lows) since the principle of down to highs and up on lows holds true from the ATH of February to the bounce in middle MArch....so it's not some special case- unless you consider games being played as the explanation for why the pattern which holds true even in past '22 and '23 downturns becomes broken. Now...for the super stretch idea...and I am not predicting so much as throwing out an idea to which I would have done if I was still around the hedge fund kids I was around in high school: Get people used to buying high rips by setting up the first test balloon of the Monday "fake news 90 day tariff relief"....which can be denied and then used to observe market reaction and to get any last people shaken off the stocks to get the insiders- that massive option call just hours before his Truth Social post is just super coincidental eh?- positioned to take advantage of his future post as the "signal". Well, it worked great cause stocks ripped and everyone bought all the way to the 50% or so retrace of the previous day high. But interesting that such massive put positions for the April 17 monthly options expiration were seemingly honored and paid out coming into Easter- not too much of a fight on that one. (Well maybe a test to see for the weekend option expiration tomorrow which is 2 days after Tesla earnings). So now- there comes the Tesla earnings right after a slight dip in the market just before the big day, and funny enough the shorts are nowhere to be squeezed...kinda seems like that Wednesday "good time to buy" comment really pushed them off from going balls deep on Tesla shorts for this Wednesday afternoon. Nothing happened so the positions the hypothetical insiders purchased aren't moving and now there is a problem....no squeeze and no stock rally. So now the Musker is informed to give his message mere minutes before the Trump-man gives his about some more unverified tariff goodies. Now you have your sudden move and everything starts going up. So if everyone is buying in and you are heading to a new top...why is the sell volume in that chart falling before that Tesla earnings when the market is slipping....but increasing while the market is rising....going against pretty principled norms. Well...that's where China comes in saying they have no idea of any meetings- which the panic button of "They...no need to explain who they are" comment is thrown out to keep the markets rising right into Google earnings...which says that the cloud is dead and only ads make money- (but every consumer giant just said sales are down and consumer interaction is down and that tariffs are going to hit them hard...but never mind that...nor that cloud is like AI related and Amazon cancelled Data Center leasing...and that Intel and AMD are pounded even though literally every computer needs one of those two to work...that doesn't matter). So we are left with tomorrow...or today depending on when you read this....You have a cross at that exact price and the fib lines all correlate pretty well to price action up and down the chart. So my thought is this....and crazy hat wearing time.... What if you sold off gold to cover your shorts and to add new puts on for this weekend into early next week- specifically Tuesday of next week- and then when you suddenly let fly some China tariff related news and get the big 4 news groups to sound bad about it...rather than blocking all the damage that containers sitting across the ocean do when not on a boat each day, you have a beautiful thing as the Trump-man likes to say. You have bought stocks at the lows before the Tesla earnings...then sold them off in the last ~16 hours and then placed puts on- since they have been increasing in volume and open interest every day leading up to tomorrow and next Tuesday- to which you get paid twice in like one week. Again...just a playful idea...and worth noting that the treasury yields haven't budged from 4.8 or 4.3 from the 20y and 10y respectively and $6 some trillion comes due for rollover on or by June the 20th....so if you want that to be like 2% I think...you got to do some nasty stuff. (My favorite would be to take retirement accounts and pensions and replace them with treasury holdings instead of stocks...a brilliant idea and will surely get that yield down in a hurry- you know--cause for like America or whatever--or as the kids say-- for reasons.) But that's just me and that's what I would do if handed a decent chunk of change and the cell #s of Musker and the other boys at that inauguration. Could be all wrong...but it's a little fun story no? Gives you a chuckle if I'm wrong and your accounts go up- or scares the hell out of you if right, since it means people like me who used to be amongst the 3 letter crews and hedge bros do this kinda thing on the regular. Anywho...here is a closer look at that death cross or that "freedom cross", whichever one gets Detroit back to motor city and Bethlehem Steel back in production again- oh wait- that isn't possible- cause you know "they" or something.
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by CYQOTEK
2
ES Daily Indicator UpdateI think the market is gonna go oversold on the daily again. It broke the wrong way out of the pennant-like structure, we still haven't heard about the electronics tariff, and we've got a slew of earnings coming up where every conf call will talk about tariffs and recession. Long on gold at least until we hit that bottom again, not shorting because of the open gaps above. I think the only hope of filling those gaps is a deal with China. Even if that happens, it'll probably be a few weeks or months. If daily indicators go oversold, I plan on going long on index or sector ETFs. Too risky right now to bet on individual stocks.
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by hungry_hippo
10
S&P at 7474 in 2 years?Last couple of moves down have been 1300 points, followed by 2600 or 2x moves to the upside. Covid was a little shallow but had the same sized upward move. My hypothesis is that Tariffs and the uncertainty the current administration is creating will create something in-between the covid V shape spike/bounce and the Jan 22 - Oct 22 down turn followed by the Oct 22 - Dec 24 highs. That down move retraced about 50% after touching or establishing the trend, chopped around, went down to trendish area, chopped around, made a head and shoulder pattern of sorts, then started it's move back up. This time it's not exactly caused by a virus... and I think the trade uncertainty will take longer to untangle, not to mention the devaluation of the dollar, bonds potentially being weaponized by foreign actors, etc. etc.
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by kschwende
1
ES UpdateWe have an open gap above and an open gap below. I assume the one above will fill first on this rate cut pump until POwell (and/or inflation numbers) squashes it then it fills the gap below. Everything is green right now, index futures, cryptos, and even gold but I assume that's because it's a commodity not because of speculative hedging. All otehr commodities are up as well. Flying out to WA tomorrow, no position. Also, RSI is overbought on the 3 hr so be careful. This may be a melt up though. I do expect the gap below to fill eventually, but as we know, sometimes it takes some time. Probably not trading next week, good luck.
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by hungry_hippo
1
How do I know if a day will be bullish?"Daily Bias" is one of the most asked questions by traders! You’ve probably heard someone say: “If only I knew where the candle would expand, I’d be rich!” Well, today I’m sharing a framework that can help you start answering that exact question. 🚶🏽‍♂️Walk with me as we break down the ES Futures Daily Candle for April 24, 2024. By the end of this video, you'll have a solid starting point to study and apply this method— #OneCandlestickAtATime
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by MarketsByLee_
April 24 Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisApril 24 Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis EOD accountability report: -400 Sleep: 4 hour, Overall health: bad X7 signal this morning somewhat told us we were going to bullish direction, but my mindset just wasn't there today, had bad sleep and things going on and ended up locking up account early. I just read a book about it recently but I think I need to really cut bad influences out of my life when im dealing with money. **Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System** ** 7:00 AMVXAlgo ES X7 Buy signal** 10:43 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (caught 10 pt) 1:12 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (10 pt) 3:10 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal (2x signal, failed) 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! (canceled out& failed) Next day plan--> Bullish over $5500
CLong
by WallSt007
Bullish WeekMarket Maker Buy Model still in play. I will be looking for a perfect moment to enter longs. This will either be after sweep on 4H or once we start pushing through the FVG marked on the chart. I want break above the 4h OB (2 STDV). If we break above, it will have to retrace back to it (second possible entry) and then distribute more to the upside. If this currently forming 2AM 4H Candle sweeps 10PM 4H Candle and closes back in the range, it will be ideal. I wouldn't want the push below the breaker.
CLong
by dekatrades
1
ES how to trade longs!On the 1-hour ES chart we identified an hourly oversold condition against our JLines bands and flagged a long plan this morning (see the 2:39 PM alert). We held the JLines 60 min curl as support, pulled the trigger near 5,375, and rode the move up to 5,475+ for a clean win. Setup Details Timeframe: 1 hour Signal: Hourly JLines curl held in oversold zone Entry: ~5,375 region Target: 5,700 area Outcome: Target reached, +100 handles This is our repeatable process—spot the JLines support in an oversold zone, plan the entry, and lock in the move.
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by JTRADERCO
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-23 : Rally-111 PatternToday's pattern really showed up pre-market. Where was the rally today? It happened before the US markets opened for business. The SPY/QQQ had already moved up into my upper resistance area on strong buying overnight. I knew I had to run my father around most of the day, so I booked my profits this morning and tried to catch one little SPY rally (that didn't work out). So, I started taking some positions for next week's potential downtrend, and I thought, "How much risk am I taking on these trades if the markets continue to move upward?" I realized I would be taking about $1000 to $1400 in total risk, but my expiration date is near May 16. So my target for any profit really needs to be before May 10th or so. If the markets do what I expect, I'll be sitting back, watching my profits grow as the markets trend downward into my May 2 Major Bottom (I hope). I created this video to highlight the now partially confirmed inverted EPP pattern that setup the Ultimate High in early trading today. Now that we've completed the inverted EPP pattern, we should be looking for the ES/SPY/QQQ to move downward, shift into a sideways/upward price flag. Then, break down into the new Consolidation phase. Essentially, if my EPP patterns play out well, I timed my move away from longs/calls and into shorts/puts almost perfectly. Now, I just need to sit back and wait for the markets to make a move. This is what trading is all about. You can't kick the markets to do what you want them to do. You have to learn to take what the markets give you and fall in line with market trends. When you do that well, profits start to fall into your lap (if you are patient). Follow along as I break down these market trends and learn how to develop your own skills. GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
CShort
by BradMatheny
April 23 Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis April 23 Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis EOD accountability report: +2325 on Eval, didn't trade funded Sleep: 10 hour, Overall health: :check: — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 12:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple buy signal) B+ set up — 1:33 PM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal) B+ set up — 1:55 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 2:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 3:31 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double signal) Next day plan--> Short 48m MOB Video Recap -->
CShort
by WallSt007
April 22st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** April 22st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** EOD accountability report: +325 Sleep: 3 hour, Overall health: tired **Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System** — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 10:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 10:51 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 11:20 AMVXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (Triple signal) C+ set up 1:12 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal (Double X3 signal) 1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 3:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (Triple signal) C+ set up
CLong
by WallSt007
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-22 : EPP StructuresThis video highlights why the Excess Phase Peak pattern is so important for traders to understand and follow. Imagine being able to see into the future and to be able to plan/project price action in a way that is like putting together building blocks (or Leggos). That is what the Excess Phase Peak pattern represents for all traders. Once you understand it and learn to use it, you'll see how it presents very clear opportunities for you to plan and execute fantastic trades in any market. Fibonacci Price Theory, Energy Cycles, & The Excess Phase Peak patterns are really the core structures of price. Elliot Wave is fantastic for "after the fact" type of analysis. IMO, you don't really know how the EW count is truly structured until after the current major wave structure is complete (meaning you are 2-3 waves into the new (counter-trend) structure. Watch this video and try to think about how I'm taking the EPP patterns to learn to plan out opportunities for price based on STRUCTURE - not indicators or averages. This is how the markets work. Pay attention and GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
CLong
by BradMatheny
11
Plan Your Trade Update For 4-21 : Waiting For The EPP SetupThis video is, hopefully, going to help many of you learn to use the Excess Phase Peak (EPP) pattern more efficiently. For months, I've been trying to teach all of you to use this pattern to efficiently identify and trade some of the biggest price moves. Remember, price only does TWO THINGS - TREND or FLAG. These components are essential to the EPP pattern setup. First, price must TREND into a peak or trough. Second, price must pullback from the peak or trough. Third, price must move into a SIDEWAYS/FLAGGING formation. Forth, price must break away from the sideways/flagging formation and attempt to TREND into the new consolidation phase. Fifth, once the new consolidation phase starts, price will trend and flag within the consolidation range for a period of time - before... Sixth, price will attempt to break up or down to the Ultimate High/Low. This chart of the ES/SPY will show you how I used my analysis to "front-load" my positions before the Easter holiday weekend. I've been telling all of you the markets would likely attempt to move a little bit higher, trying to target 525-535 (if we are lucky). Then, price would roll into a topping formation and move downward towards my May 3-6th low (estimate). Last Thursday, I decided to throw on two positions to protect against any big news that may cause the markets to collapse over the holiday weekend. I picked up : 4 SDS CALL options @ $23 expiring on May 16 3 XLF PUT options @ $47 expiring on May 16 Both of those trades worked out perfectly this morning. I booked 2 of the XLF and 2 of the SDS for profits near 1030 AM PT. Lovely. Next, in between phone calls and loading up my car for a short trip, I noticed a beautiful EPP pattern setting up in the ES, and that EPP pattern has already reached what I believe to be the Ultimate Low. I tried to get into 2 SPY Call options @ $512 and held my breath to see if I timed the entry well. NOT. I took a $280+ loss on those two Calls. I waited a bit longer to see what price did, and after the price setup a base below $510 on the SPY, I loaded up on two more SPY Calls @ $510 and two SSO calls @ $67 about 70-80 minutes before the end of trading. The way I looked at it, I already had my downside trades placed from last Thursday, and I just added some upside exposure while my downside trades were profitable. I didn't know if the SPY would rally or not, but the EPP Ultimate Low setup suggested NOW is the time to buy. So, I kept both downside and upside trades active to protect my account overnight. The SPY rallied into the close, and I ended up making some nice profits off that EPP Ultimate Low. Now, I'm going to wait to see what happens tomorrow morning and try to BOOK my upside trades in profits while letting my longer-term downside trades play out into early/mid May. This is trading. The entire purpose of trading, like I trade, is to position for the best opportunities and try to catch the GIFTS the market throws at you as often as possible. Nothing is guaranteed, but price ultimately shows us everything we need to know. Watch this video to see if you understand the EPP Ultimate Low that prompted me to buy my CALLS today. If so, then you are starting to GET IT, and that is a very big step towards improving your trading skills. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
CShort
by BradMatheny
8