ES1! trade ideas
Is This Sell-Off Another "Buy the Dip" Opportunity?Macro Update
Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off.
Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations.
Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions.
Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity.
Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events:
Wednesday, January 29:
Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025.
Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
Thursday, January 30th:
ECB interest rate decision
Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ).
Friday, January 31st:
Core PCE Price Index (Dec).
ES Futures Update
This week is packed with critical data releases, and macroeconomic developments are having a stronger influence on short-term price fluctuations. It’s an important time to step back, zoom out, and identify key levels of interest to engage with the market.
Despite the overnight sell-off and heightened volatility, the auction process remains orderly. Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading.
Key Observations:
ES futures bounced off the yearly open in overnight trading, marking it as our critical Line in the Sand (LIS).
If prices stay above the LIS, markets are likely to consolidate further this week, with FOMC and other data releases determining the next move.
A break below the yearly open could open the door to short trade opportunities targeting the support zones identified on the chart.
Scenario 1: Wait and See
Allow the market to digest the sell-off. Look for long setups from the LIS. Key events like the FOMC decision will likely influence market direction, but unexpected negative news could overshadow these data releases.
Scenario 2: Sustained Sell-Off
If a catalyst triggers further downside, the market may test support levels near 5,750 and 5,800. Below the LIS, short setups may be viable if supported by news or price action that aligns with a bearish trade thesis.
For traders looking to manage risk more effectively, consider using Micro E-mini S&P 500 contracts , which are 1/10th the size of standard ES contracts.
This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets.
Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan 27thOn Friday at 1:30 PM, ES broke below 6135, a key support level it had held for two weeks. Headlines fueled the move, leading to a gap down and a sharp sell-off. Initial targets at 6083 and 6070 were reached, with even more downside following.
As of now:
• 6016-20 must reclaim to trigger a short squeeze from buyers
• If 5982 fails, sellers can easily drop to 5966 and 5949 after that
S&P futures daily chart AIL buy climax at key levelS&P is all-in-long, in a tight bull channel, buy for any reason, but now at a point of likely exhaustion after a possible climax. Price testing the breakout point from the last FOMC day and big selloff. Bulls will take profits here and bears will look for a foothold to sell. Since the market is in a large trading range, odds favor a pullback. If price continues higher, odds will favor a deeper pullback and possible reversal. Likely a small trading range today.
ES1! 5 minute shorts into Monday 1/27 earningsS&P futures open technically bearish with a 'GAP' down to start off earnings week ( 1/27 - 1/31). We are currently taking advantage of the price action on a shorter time-frame and playing the market structure to its next subsequent down-side targets each pull-back and extension from Sydney, into London session.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.26 - 1.31.25Last Week :
Last week we opened over the Value of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range and were able to hold over, when we got over the Edge that brought in more buying that gave us a push into new HTF Value of 6195 - 6074 Range where we have sold off from before after contract roll and we closed Friday with a rejection from a push into VAH.
This Week :
Last week of the month, new president is in, what can we expect this week ?
Well looking at the structure we had a perfect rejection from the top on Friday which of course doesn't exactly have to be a top but if it were one it would be a very good looking one on the Daily TF if it was one.
Going into this week IF we can't get over VAH and hold over 6160 - 70 to build supply to take higher over upper Edge then we could see balancing inside the Intraday Range of current Value to build supply and digest the move we had last week that is IF we have truly accepted in this 6195 - 6074 HTF Range. IF we have not found the needed acceptance here and we start getting continuation into VAL we have Poor/Weak RTH Lows there at 6111 which we could aim for, If taken out that could give us more selling to at least fill the Gap we created into 6093 area.
From there we would watch if we absorb all the selling and can get back into above Value or if we can't and we hold under 6100 then we could see more selling to push into lower Edge and IF we happen to get inside it under 6070 then moves back towards lower VAH/Value are not out of the question as long as we can get through 6050s
#202504 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls got another two bigger legs up which now makes it 5. Question now is, how likely is a continuation before a deeper pull-back? I do think Friday’s price action could have been the start of a wider profit taking by more bulls but until the bull channel is clearly broken and we have traded consecutive bars below the 4h 20ema, it won’t mean much. In the past 3 months we had very strong looking legs up, followed by deep pull-backs and we have not made a meaningful higher high since 2024-11-11. It’s reasonable to assume that we can hit 6200 before turning but I have big doubts about more upside beyond.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6200
bull case: Bulls made 140 points on the week with 5 clear legs up. Buying above 6130 is just bad no matter how you put it. Scalps ok but we have been in this trading range for 3 months now. Bulls want to print another ath and 6200 is the logical target. As long as the bull channel holds, they are favored and in control. Once we start closing gaps below again, more bulls will likely take profits.
Invalidation is below 5790.
bear case: Bears didn’t do much the past week but we are at big resistance again and shorts are great from a risk:reward perspective. The upside potential is probably limited to 6200/6300 but the downside is clear with 5800. For now you can only short this if you are willing to scale in higher, otherwise you have to wait for better selling pressure and a break of the bull trend line.
Invalidation is above 6300.
short term: Neutral 6100 - 6200, bearish below for 6000 and depending on how we get there, either wait for a lower high or we might continue down.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-26: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. For now we are stuck in a range 5800 - 6200.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted targets and added the current bull channel and two big gaps.
Market Outlook for Week 5 (US):The upcoming week features several key economic events and data releases that could significantly influence market sentiment and asset prices. Below are the highlights and their potential market implications:
Key Economic Events & Data Releases
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, January 31, 2025)
Time: 2:00 PM EST
The Federal Reserve is expected to halt its rate cuts after 100 basis points of cuts last year, with investors keen to understand future monetary policy. 
European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, February 1, 2025)
Time: 7:45 AM EST
The European Central Bank is anticipated to cut rates by another 25 basis points due to economic sluggishness and tariff threats from the U.S. 
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, February 1, 2025)
Time: 10:00 AM EST
The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its current interest rate, with market participants closely monitoring any indications of future monetary policy adjustments.
Advance Economic Indicators Report (Tuesday, February 5, 2025)
Time: 8:30 AM EST
This report will provide insights into international trade, retail, and wholesale activities, offering a snapshot of the U.S. economy’s performance. 
Major Corporate Earnings Reports
Several major companies, predominantly in the technology sector, are set to report earnings, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Apple. 
Market Implications
Equity markets will likely remain sensitive to any data hinting at changes in economic growth, inflation, or labor market conditions. Positive surprises in growth or inflation cooling could drive risk-on sentiment, while signs of a slowing economy or stubborn inflation might increase market volatility. Bond markets may see notable movement depending on the GDP and Core PCE figures, while the U.S. dollar’s trajectory will largely depend on labor market and inflation data.
Investors should prepare for potential volatility across sectors, particularly in interest rate-sensitive areas like technology and real estate.
#ES_F Approaching ATH'sES has again found strong buying support from the 5866-09 range and clearly traded back towards the previous ATH's.
We approach this week with heavy Financial Calendar News mainly FOMC as well as Tesla, Microsoft, Meta and Apple Earnings Reports on Wednesday and Thursday after market close.
Friday has seen a Bearish Response on the H4 chart however a change in price direction has yet to be seen.
Coming into this week I will be watching 6125 to hold with price able to trade above 6140 to remain Bullish; the exception being if we see a further rejection from 6143-50.
Trading Higher I will be watching 6179-74, 6181 and then into new ATH's with projections as detailed on the chart.
Trading Lower from a 6143-50 rejection I would be monitoring the 3 previous daily lows for failed breakdowns keeping in mind that FOMC is approaching and that the outcome is always a 50/50 probability and that I can understand my trade more after I see the News Result and Price Action response to that News only after the event has passed. Anything within the noise of release is a gamble.
Anticipating $ESH2025 to drop below 6070 by February 7All the usual disclaimers:
1. I am not registered with FINRA. I am not a financial advisor.
2. Prior performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
3.This post is not and is not intended as financial advice. Instead, this post shares speculation upon hypothetical possible future outcomes.
4. This post uses purely doodling and technical analysis. It is not based to any extent upon education from news sources, information releases from underlying firms, nor upon microeconomic nor macroeconomic principles.
A. The purple rectangle captures the recent downturn movement between December 5-January 14.
B. The green rectangle is a clone of that, based at the golden cross on January 14.
C. The orange rectangle is sized at 100 point range for 1 CME day, centered on last closing price.
D. The rectangle is sized at the 155 point range of December 18, 2024 for 1 CME day, centered on last closing price, starting from the opening bell.
E. Some downturn indicators arrowed to for discussion reference.
CME_MINI:ESH2025 is in the local zone of contention, which has been magnetic since Thanksgiving. It appears that it is more likely than not that CME_MINI:ESH2025 will remain within the local zone of contention for at least the next few days, returning repeatedly to 6130-6135. But, CME_MINI:ESH2025 is also far away from the 90 minute time frame's MA200 trendline, and since November CME_MINI:ESH2025 has dropped below that trendline four times. From that, I anticipate MA200 CME_MINI:ESH2025 to drop below 6070 by February 7.
Both downturn and upturn trends on the 90 minute time frame commonly have durations of either around 1-2 CME days. On the 90 minute time frame, a few downturn indicator dots accumulated at the end of the CME day on Friday, January 24. It's likely that the downturn trend will continue until at least pre-opening bell on Monday, January 27.
The range should be within 50 points, to an anticipated floor of 6080. For comparison, the total range was 85 points on Monday, January 20. If the downturn range extends to that of December 18, the anticipated floor is 6005.
If range turns bullish, the anticipated ceiling is 6185, with an outside ceiling at 6250.
MES / ES Weekend Plan Jan 26As we press higher, do note that we are currently above January value making anything above 6060’s premium on the monthly. That does not mean to start bearish bias, but to rather be cautious of potential pullbacks. We’ve had 2 weeks of upward momentum reaching new ATH on ES and SPY. QQQ and DIA so far lacking in that department which adds to concerns. Would also note that this week and Dec FOMC week profiles has POC relatively the same location - perhaps exits for major swing longs up here. Again nothing "bearish" in larger context, but day to day, we may be a tad stretched.
Thursday’s end of day spike up was on the ridiculous side, therefore longs on Friday, in my opinion, were higher risk. Over night session with the Bank of Japan data release saw a look above and fail of that spike which carried down into RTH. RTH also swept that over night high, but by falling back into the spike added to the bearish bias for the day. A single print at 6143.25-6144.5 was also made. We did have a spike down attempt, although only a few ticks; however, buyers stepped in to move us back above 6128-30 and closing the week just above weekly POC. In general, buyers have nothing to worry about until we explore back into last Tuesday’s range (6043.5-6087.5) and accept lower.
For this week, I will use Friday’s range as a guide. Friday’s low sits just above Thursday and Wednesday VAL. Friday’s high just above Thursday spike top along with an excess from Friday.
Breaking lower, should see the RTH poor low at 6111.25 including cleaning up the remaining single print from Dec FOMC 6107.5-6111. Further weakness would target the Dec POC at 6096.25 and finally the gap fill at 6087.50 where I do expect buyers to step in. I would start to fish for longs down here, but would also focus on 6071-75 as this would include Tuesday’s IBH breakout at 6072. Acceptance lower, will target Tuesday's excess low at 6043.50. If buyers don't step in here to save it, The gap fill at 6004 and single prints 6005.25-6012.75 come into play.
Frankly anything 6087-6058 should be of focus. Will need to see a reversal structure form for more confidence as further moving through Tuesday’s value can occur. But in this area we have gap fill, Friday 100% extension, last Tuesday POC, Dec FOMC Low, last Tuesday IBH breakout, last week VAL, and Jan VAL.
If we open Sunday higher and move above Friday’s VAL (6133-35), I would target the Jan 23 spike base at 6139.25 followed by the single print 6143.25-6144.50. Acceptance higher will then target Friday’s POC ~6149 and the spike top 6153.75. Anything higher will need NQ, YM, and RTY to step up. I think NQ especially needs to be supportive. Higher targets on ES would be the 50% extension of Friday’s range 6180’s along with 6200-10 as the 100% extension where the weekly expected high resides.
Potential Look above and fail of Friday’s high can be a valid short just as a look below of Friday’s low can be a valid long. If we near Friday’s high, pay attention to the other products if they are also being supportive or not. If 6128-30 starts to become resistance, the large spike on Jan 23 becomes more serious and further represents a failed breakout.
Continue to have the following: Jan 13 swing low vwap, Dec FOMC vwap, and Sept FOMC vwap as these will continue to catch up to price.
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MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/24/25MES1!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/24/25
📈 6190.25 (NEXT LEVELS: 6166.25, 6220)
📉 6094.75 (NEXT LEVELS: 6118.75, 6075.5, 6065.25)
*The target levels have experienced some discrepancies over the past few days, prompting adjustments to enhance accuracy. We are highly confident in the revised target levels for tomorrow, Friday, the 24th. Thanks!*
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
time to rotate back to valuepff
too many gaps anyways
and
we have a 4 hourly rsi bear div
and
declining volume
and a swing fail pattern on our latest ATH
along with an RTH (regular trading hours) CVD ( cumulative volume delta) bearish divergence
and all of you are way too bullish anyways
its bear time
P&L Calendar P&L Calendar
A calendar integration within TradingView where users can view their Profit and Loss (P&L) on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis. The calendar would display each trade’s P&L in a color-coded format (green for profits, red for losses) so users can easily track performance over time.
Key Features:
1. Daily P&L Tracking: Each day’s P&L could be shown next to the date with a color code for profits (green) and losses (red).
2. Weekly/Monthly View: View total P&L for the week or month with aggregated values.
3. Trade Tags: Option to tag individual trades with labels (e.g., “long,” “short,” “scalping,” etc.) for more detailed tracking.
4. Performance Summary: Ability to click on a specific day/week/month to see detailed breakdowns of trades for that period.
5. Customizable Appearance: Allow users to choose how they want their calendar and P&L to be displayed, with options for sorting by profit, loss, or trade type.
Are sellers approaching the S&P 500?Is the selling action that we saw on Friday in the S&P 500 the result of sellers coming in to the S&P 500 or is it the result of buyers selling to take profits before the weekend. The price action on Monday should give us additional clues about which behavior is entering the market.
ES may not close high this fridayCME_MINI:ESH2025 is likely will not close above Thursday high today (Friday). If it is so, then we may see the test of Thursday and Wednesday Cash session Low, which are poor low, On Monday. but that shall be only a temporary correction.
ES fail to stay above Yesterday high and ON high today, but it doesn't show aggressive liquidation today. so, need more caution for shorting ES on Monday.
CME_MINI:NQH2025 also doesn't show any strength on Friday session one. for now, ha
ES/SPX Morning Update Jan 24thES has been on an 8-day winning streak, with momentum still riding off Monday’s 6020 Failed Breakdown. Yesterday’s reclaim of 6115 drove the move to my key targets at 6136 and 6154, both hit.
As of now:
• 6135 = support; holding above keeps 6161, 6172, and 6185 in play
• If 6135 fails, expect a dip to 6115, then 6098-6105
OIL THE RUSSELL THE ES SPENDING TIME ON REVERSAL PATTERNS JANUARY 24TH the es has traded to a double top and its all-time high and I explained why I would not be buying that Market at this time and I compared it to the Russell and why I would be more inclined to short that market as a shorting the ES. we took a quick look at Gold went over some details with the es that could have had 1 or 2 extensions that could influence a trade decision now versus later.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 01/23/25MES!/ES1! Day Trade 🎯 for 01/23/25
📈 6166 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
📉 6056.75 (NEXT LEVELS: TBD)
1/2 way mark 📈 6138.75 & 📉 6084.25
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
