UncertaintyThe price action in the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies uncertainty about market activity. Friday's movement will be based on how the market digests the labor numbers that will be reported on Friday.
SSS&P 500 E-mini Futures
6,055.50USDD
+17.00+0.28%
As of today at 09:53 GMT
USD
No trades
ES1! trade ideas
New additional ES/SP500 AnalysisAlternative and more likely scenario to previous ES/SPY bottoming ideas: #1 ES/SPY has been traveling in downward channel. Seems as if it has made 3 - 4 top of channel/bottom of channel trips and potentially may be missing completion of this last rotation down, which ignites the move up or may exit the channel with sideways move which would provide idea number #2 ES/SPY will continue to test the 200 MA breaking above and below it. (Potentially one of the candles may make a big move down and bough up providing a big flush/shake out and subsequent large wick. Possibly not required). Eventually forming a multiple daily candle bottom. Likely 2-3 more candles before starting its ascent higher. Personally I'm already long with small (red!) positions with ES micro mini, SPY and NVIDIA calls. More pain and waiting likely ahead and ready to make small additions waiting for the strong move up. Risk management required. As with every chart analysis viewing all possibilities - I could see potential additional 100 - 130 point drop
ES Bottom Could Be in MacroI am longing AMEX:SPY and a good bit of Semi Conductors as well like NYSE:WOLF and NASDAQ:NVDA .. This was a healthy Pullback, of course I am very far out with my positions on Options. I am Also long on NYSE:ES for a swing with a nice hedge on NSE:TTL .. This is not financial advise, just my idea.. usually we are all week early. I am stacking in accordingly. www.tradingview.com
ES Morning Update March 4thYesterday, the breakdown short idea I mentioned at 5938-42 triggered a 100-point sell-off in ES. Coming into today, as noted in the plan yesterday evening, losing 5850 would set up a sharp short trigger—and we just got it, dropping 25 points so far.
As of now:
• 5814, 5798 are next downside targets if selling continues
• To reverse and rally, 5857 must reclaim
DID SPECULATORS FINALLY BUY THE DIP?Since the October 2022 low in the S&P, Large Speculators (blue column) have not bought any dips in the market with significance where they got crowded getting long. Since that low, the S&P kept making new all-time highs and the Speculators never chased.
Tt's going to be real interesting cot on Friday, 03/07/2025, to see if they bought this dip in stocks which I've been talking about for a few years, where I really didn't think this bull market will end until they buy.
They were clearly never going to chase. So maybe they'll buy the dip. The Friday data will show positioning as of this past Tuesday which included a significant move. If that is in fact what they have been doing. My sneaking suspicion is they did. But let's see, let's let the data tell us.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025
📈5798 5818 5838
📉5759 5739 5719
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES GOLD OIL3.6.25 this is a morning video and this was done purposefully so we could project where the market might go later this morning. I'm looking at four markets but I can't remember the fourth one. this is an exercise in following 2 bar reversals to look for change of Direction in a market and also trying to decide what the target should be. it's an exercise in trying to find a trade with a small stop and a Target that we can consider before we push the button to take the trade. and other words it has a built-in entry, stop and Target....... but it's not perfect.
ES Morning Update March 6thES has been stuck in the same range for nearly four days, with 5858-5875 acting as resistance and 5763 holding as support. Yesterday followed the same pattern—I was looking for a rally to resistance, we got it, and then the market reversed back down.
As of now:
• 5777, 5763-57 are key supports
• Reclaiming 5798 sets up a move toward 5809, 5822+
• If 5757 fails, expect selling to 5725
S&P500 & Bitcoin Dancing Off Key SupportsBy Eric Lee , Sales Director of Phillip Nova
The E-mini S&P 500 index futures are currently exhibiting a symmetrical triangle formation, a technical pattern that typically indicates a period of consolidation before a potential breakout.
The price is testing the lower boundary of this triangle, suggesting a possible breakdown. Additionally, the index is hovering near the 200-day moving average (MA), a critical long-term support level. A break below this MA could signal further bearish momentum, with the next significant support level based on the triangle formation around 5550.
The correlation between the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin has been a topic of interest, as both assets have shown periods of synchronized movements, particularly during times of market stress.
The recent drop in Bitcoin's price may be indicative of broader market sentiment, potentially foreshadowing a breakdown in the E-mini S&P 500 index futures. If Bitcoin's decline continues, it could exacerbate selling pressure in the equity markets, leading to a more pronounced downturn in the S&P 500 futures. Traders should closely monitor these developments, as a confirmed breakdown could lead to increased volatility and a test of lower support levels.
The ES/SPY Bottom May Be InDaily wick looks to indicate a bottom is in. This would be consistent with past bottoms. Big wick after mainly days of bearish movement. Sentiment is bearish. The tariffs are in, people are scared, the bulls have unwound. Retails is bloodied. Now big money comes in and buys low and squeezes the bears who think it will just keep falling. Remember T.I.N.A. too!
BTC & ES1! (S&P500 Futures) CorrelationBitcoin and the S&P500 are still showing correlation.
S&P500 Futures (ES1! ticker) has a gap about 3% lower.
I think we need to fill this gap (resulting in a bounce) for BTC to start moving with greater strength to the upside.
The gap is also in the range of the 0.5 Fib retracement (50% of that range).
This could see BTC come back to the lower 80k's region before we completely put in the local bottom.
ES Morning Update March 5thYesterday was the most volatile session in ES since August, with three 100+ point round trips. I was looking for a squeeze to 5875—we hit 5875 exactly.
As of now:
• Size down—volatility remains high
• 5798, 5784 are key supports
• A recovery of 5822 is needed to push toward 5858
• If 5784 fails, look for a drop to 5763, then new lows
ES Weekly Chart Analysis – Potential Medium-Term Top?The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) may have printed a temporary medium-term top at 6167.25, potentially initiating a Wave 4 correction (yellow circle). If this count holds, we could see prices retracing toward the 5115 area.
🔹 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Bullish Bias: The trend remains firmly bullish until we start trading below 5715 and break the ascending channel's trendline.
❌ Bearish Confirmation: A decisive break below 5715 would strengthen the case for a deeper retracement, increasing the probability of a more extended correction.
🚨 No clear confirmation of the top yet! Until we see structural weakness, the primary trend remains bullish.
#SP500 #ES_F #ElliottWave #MarketAnalysis #Trading #Stocks #Futures
50-50 set up in the S&P 500 daily chartThe market will be focusing and scrutinizing on the Trump presentation to Congress. It will be searching for positive news with regard to tariffs, Ukraine and Israel. The expectation is the current lower levels would be attractive to buyers entering the market. However it will be the markets interpretation of the Trump presentation to Congress as the filter to determine if buyers will follow through.
Equity Prices Continue LowerAfter testing all time high levels in the ES contract on February 19th, equity markets have seen significant selling pressure which continued today while the precious metals saw a boost higher. One of the volatility drivers traders are seeing is coming from global tariff policies from the U.S. and many other nations adding uncertainty to the strength of these markets. Over the next few weeks, traders will learn more about the implementation of these tariffs and where the equity markets and precious metals may settle.
Over the last few weeks, the CME Fed Watch Tool has also shifted, and now is pricing in a 44% chance of a rate cut at the May 7th meeting of 25 basis points, where previous expectations were to see the a pause for the May meeting. This week offers a big slate of economic data as well, including ADP Nonfarm Payroll, Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Data, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report. This economic data could have an effect on the Fed’s stance on the economy and their plans for rate cuts moving forward.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
ES Pump n Dump Trade IdeaMarkets have been bleeding relatively quickly here over the last few days. Price has recently hit the Weekly level and 1-1 extension from what might be a potential ABC correction. Would be nice to get some relief, potentially reclaiming the Value Area Low of the trend, and then the VWAP will decide if we trade back down, or potentially higher.
We are at some quite important key levels here, losing them would truly expand the range with some room to drop to the downside.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025
📈5840 5858 5875
📉5800 5780 5760
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
