Positive close on FridayThe positive close on Friday implies that buyers are willing to hold a position in the S&P 500 daily over the weekend. This would imply follow-through to the upside on Monday but not a big day up. The objective is 6000.
ESU2018 trade ideas
Market Crash. It will happen again!! Be ready..There are not only similarities. Many factors are the same even worse. It will crash !!
Today, let’s look back at how everything in 2007 was sunny until it wasn’t, and we will compare that data with today’s.
The current market situation, as reflected in the Fed's rhetoric and actions—general narrative, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, etc.—is very similar to the state that preceded past crises.
Yes, history is not a guarantee that the future will be the same, but it is a guide that should not be ignored. It’s good to take at least the main lessons from it because listening to the general sentiment and talking heads on TV often doesn’t pay off. Those who now lament that the Fed is unnecessarily and excessively lowering rates will shout the loudest in six months for the Fed to continue lowering them. Ignoring the past is like voting for Kamala Harris and expecting change and development. Sorry, white braindead dudes…
So, let’s get to the main message of today’s article: We will take a very detailed look at 2007 and how it all unfolded step by step. First, we’ll analyze 2007, and then compare it with 2024. After that, we’ll look at the financial “health” of the average US consumer and American companies.
Let’s go!!
CHAPTER 1: THE YEAR 2007
The first rate cut was at the September FOMC meeting on 18.9.2007 by 50bps to 4.75%. The market was shocked by this Fed decision because it expected a cut of only 25bps, and articles began appearing everywhere that the Fed was ahead of itself and would cause inflation and another endless stock market rise. The Fed succumbed to market pressure! Below is an excerpt from The NY Times article:
The S&P500, DJI, and all other major indexes immediately surged to new all-time highs.
Yay, bullbrun!!! Helicopter money, the Fed has given up. Sell your car and buy stocks, everyone!
Meanwhile, unemployment at this time remained around 4.7% and was relatively stable.
The next rate cut came at the November meeting by 25 basis points (bps) and another 25 bps at the December meeting. “Let’s enjoy Christmas in peace, there’s nothing to worry about, we’re lowering rates for a soft landing. Like lying down in a bed with Egyptian cotton sheets.”
But then the new year arrives, and it seems Wall Street spent all its money on gifts because a week before the planned January FOMC meeting, an EMERGENCY MEETING is held, and the Fed cuts rates by 75 bps. A week later, at the planned FOMC meeting on January 30, 2008, another 50 bps cut brings rates down to 3%. In March, another 75 bps cut follows, and in April, another 25 bps, bringing the total to 2%.
Then comes a long pause until early October, when the Fed holds another EMERGENCY MEETING and cuts rates by 50 bps. Immediately at the next planned FOMC meeting two weeks later, it cuts again by 50 bps to a final 1% interest rate.
Here it is an Excel chart for better clarity !!
Here is a complete overview of the rate cuts during this period:
Let’s forget about the Fed Funds for a moment and look at what the yield curve (US02Y YIELD) on 2-year bonds was doing.
Since the first rate cut in September 2007, it went down and then dropped another 82% over the next 12 months!
What were MONEY SUPPLY and INFLATION doing during this period?
Both money supply and inflation were rising. M2SL increased from $7.4 trillion to $8.2 trillion, and inflation rose from about 2.8% to 5.4%. However, this range in inflation has been completely normal since 1982, as we have been moving within this range. Although inflation had a momentary rise, it was nothing out of the ordinary and then experienced an absolute washout.
It’s crucial to keep asking the key question: What was the narrative at that time? What was the “general” opinion and sentiment? It was: The Fed gave in, the bull run continues, inflation is up, the market is saved, and the Fed is overdoing it, buddy, unnecessarily.
What about the long pause between April and October when rates were flat?
It was half a year of stabilization, waiting to see what would happen. They were worried that they had cut rates so aggressively that they were ahead of the market and now had to wait for the market to calm down. Read: every pundit in the news claimed the Fed had overdone it and was unnecessarily aggressive.
So, when did the total meltdown in the stock market begin?
During the pause in interest rates between April and October 2008, the market was relatively stable and only lost about 15% of its value. It was only after this period that the real crisis hit, and the DJI lost another 41% of its value over the next six months – see chart below.
Let’s put everything together for the year 2007:
Comparison of US02Y Yield, DJI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates:
US02Y Yield: The yield on 2-year bonds dropped significantly, falling by 82% over the next 12 months after the first rate cut in September 2007.
DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average): The market initially surged to new all-time highs but later experienced a significant downturn.
Unemployment : Remained relatively stable at around 4.7% during this period.
Interest Rates: The Fed cut rates multiple times, starting with a 50 bps cut in September 2007, followed by several more cuts, eventually bringing the rate down to 1% by the end of the period.
Alright, let’s take a look at what GOLD and the VIX were doing at that time. Gold kept hitting new all-time highs, while the VIX was lying in bed with a cold until October 2008. In short, it took about 13 months from the first-rate cut for the VIX to show any significant upward movement, which then triggered the final cascade of the entire market.
From the first rate cut in September 2007 to March 2008, gold increased by 38%, while the VIX remained dormant. The VIX only started to spike in October 2008 after the Fed had kept rates flat for six months, leading to the real and juicy market meltdown.
Alright, enough history, let’s move on to the current state.
Chapter 2: The Year 2024
Now, let’s shift to the present and look at what the same charts, narratives, and everything else tell us today. We’ll start with the Fed. We’ll always start with the Fed because it’s our bestseller.
Surprise, surprise, the Fed cut rates on September 18, 2024, exactly like in 2007, by 50 basis points to 4.75%1. The talking heads are just as shocked and fascinated by this event as they were in 2007.
For the upcoming meetings, the expectation is a 25 bps cut in November and another 25 bps cut in December. Any resemblance to 2007 is purely coincidental…
What about the indexes?
Well, we’re hitting new endless records, champagne is flowing, and we’re using rolled-up newspapers for coke because banknotes are too small. In LalaLand, the DJI reaches 43,100 USD and the S&P500 hits 5,900 USD. The crowds are going wild…
The current sentiment, according to “experts,” is:
According to a survey, only 8% of respondents expect something like a hard landing. Yuck, who would want a hard landing? 76% expect a soft landing, and the rest prefer not to expect anything at all.
Notice how the probability of a HARD LANDING has been decreasing throughout the year. This reflects the general sentiment because if a crisis were to happen, it would have come long ago.
What about UNEMPLOYMENT?
It remains stable at around 4.1%, but due to statistical errors from the statistical office, we will have to wait about 12 months for the actual values.
What about the MONEY SUPPLY and INFLATION charts?
The money supply is increasing, and inflation is back in its “comfort zone” of around 2-5%.
Let’s put everything together for the year 2024:
Comparison of US02Y Yield, DJI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates:
Interest Rates: Decreased from 4.75% to 4.25% (a reduction of 50 basis points).
Unemployment: Increased from approximately 3.4% to 4.4%.
US02Y Yield: Dropped from 5.2% to 3.5%.
Dow Jones Index: Continues to hit new all-time highs every day.
And what about the GOLD and VIX charts?
Gold has risen by about 9% since the first rate cut, reaching new all-time highs (ATHs), while the VIX is still “sleeping” and pretending not to notice.
That’s all well and good, but what does it all mean?!
YEAR 2007 vs 2024
It means that if we look closely and with the benefit of hindsight at 2007, the current situation is not just similar to before, it is EXACTLY the same. I don’t believe that history will repeat itself step by step and down to the last detail as before, but this comparison is meant to show you that most events can be seen in the data in advance. However, it’s hard to find this information through the disinformation deluge we call MAINSTREAM MEDIA.
Macro charts, which most smart money follows and which have historically proven to be very accurate, show the same sequence of events as in 2007-2008. Additionally, China is already experiencing a similar real estate crisis as in 2008 (their words, not mine) and they think they can cover a 20 trillion loss with a 500 billion package. That will require a lot of prayers and incense sticks…
CHAPTER 3: STRONG ECONOMY AND INDOMITABLE CONSUMER
Powel, Yellen and all politics still speaking about a strong economy, I don’t know if they are intentionally lying or they are stupid. but here is retail data. How is the average American citizen doing, who barely finished high school, sleeps with a machine gun under their pillow, doesn’t have a passport, and thinks Africa is just below England?
Average Americans are starting to drown in debt, and the chance of defaulting on the minimum debt in the next 3 months is increasing to about 14%.
Auto loan defaults 90 days past due are now at 2.9%. Highest in 14 years.
let’s look at ALL loan defaults together:
We are in a very, very similar situation to 2007. There is no extreme yet, but notice how everything is starting to prepare for expansion. I don’t give it much weight as long as we’re below about 2, but I definitely wouldn’t support this chart because it’s another piece of our MACRO puzzle.
What about the labour market?
The labour market in the USA has fallen to 34.2 hours in terms of average hours worked per week. This is the lowest in 14 years. It is a continuous decline, with the labour market weakening for 8 months in a row, starting with the slow reduction of full-time jobs to part-time jobs and continuing with the gradual reduction of the workforce.
Moreover, most large companies plan to lay off more employees at the beginning of the new year, which will result in hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs. Last month, the number of part-time jobs was at 28.16 million. The third highest number in history and 400,000 more than in 2008.
Additionally, household investment in the stock market is at an absolute maximum, with the average Joe having over 48% of their assets in stocks. Double the value of the last 15 years.
Well, everyone has some stocks, what’s wrong with that?
There’s nothing wrong with investing in stocks, quite the opposite. Anyone with a bit of extra money should have a portion of their assets in quality stocks. However, it’s always important to keep in mind what the smart money is doing.
CEOs, owners, and large investors are selling their stocks, and so-called “corporate insiders” are buying stocks at the slowest pace in the last 13 years
The problems that crush the middle class are of course also connected to the real estate market housing affordability is currently the worst since 1985 and we are below 2008 levels! That’s not even talking about how many properties are now for sale in the US below pre-Covid values.
What about companies? How do entrepreneurs succeed and why does it all take so long?
First, we have the US election in about 3 weeks, and Japan’s Powell (samurai sake kimono, or something) has confirmed that the BOJ will not raise rates until after the US election.
Moreover, the buyback in stocks has never been as brutal as this year 2024 – see chart below.
Come on, it’s cool, isn’t it? When a snake starts eating itself, maybe it’s a long enough snake. The problem is that the SPX index consists of 7 strong companies. The remaining 493 companies report yet another quarter when they have a 0% increase in earnings.493 companies do not even meet the reduced expectations for 2024.
But Magnificent 7 and AI Narrative will take it all by themselves. We’re already looking forward to having a robot make us a drink and getting into Elon’s autonomous taxi… which will actually be driven by a remote-controlled Indian from somewhere in the basement of Marrakesh.
The Russell index is not much better, with so-called “zombie companies” reporting negative earnings reaching over 43% of the index.
Buffet is not buying properly for the past 3 years and he is sitting on the historically biggest cash positions. He is waiting for the opportunity, which can come soon or next year. This is macro and it has a much longer timing.
This week NFPs are coming with bad data and corrections are even worse. Most of the new jobs are created in the government sector.
Oh and banks are holding in the biggest unrealized losses in the past two decades
Also, we just passed 36 Trillion in debt, they added 1 Trillion in just 4 months.
It's a mix for the mother of all crashes, when it will happen. I don't know macro top timing is difficult as you can see Kyosaki, Schiff, Burry and many more have been calling for the crash for years, eventually one day it will happen. Growing unemployment + fed rapid rate cuts are the last pieces to the puzzle.
Once FED starts rapid cutting it will be the time.
What to do?
Definitely don’t be leveraged in any position. Be solvent and make sure you have a stable income. Have cash to use on this lifetime buy opportunity and buy some great assets when the interest rate hits 0% it could be the bottom of the crash. Will Bitcoin protect you? I don’t know, Bitcoin was not through such a crisis yet. But Im holding since I bought it down here
Of course as usual this is not financial advice just my opinion. Do your own research.
Be ready, to buy the bottom, this will be epic!
Dave Hunter
Buyers are here butBuyers are here in the S&P 500 daily chart but can they maintain this momentum going into the weekend with a positive close. 6000 is the next objective for a close going into the weekend.
S&P will grab downside liq. and rally higher, risk 1-3 %we see a downside imbalance and liq sitting at the lows where i put the line as you can see, on a daily we are bullish so we are looking for buys, as well, the buy zone is likely where the price reacts so that would be an extra confluence for us to take a trade. This is a rough analysis we clearly have to see how the market will move as the us session open at 15:30 ( german time ).
ES/SPX Morning Update Nov 20thYesterday, buyers delivered a textbook setup: a Failed Breakdown at the key 5886 level, which triggering longs. The 5956 target, as outlined, was hit perfectly overnight.
As of now: Let runners ride until the move concludes. Supports are 5943 (weak) and 5928. If we base here, 5963 and 5972+ are the next targets. A failure of 5928 would signal a deeper dip.
The S&P 500 just hit me with a 'deja vous' - gains to follow?Once every so often I look at a chart and instantly get struck by a familiar pattern, which is exactly what happened today with the S&P 500 futures chart. And with asset managers firmly backing the ES1! futures market, I'm not on guard for a bounce form support. Just as long as Nvidia earnings allow.
MS.
The S&P Mini11 21 24 I spent a lot of time looking at bigger time frames on the S&P because they can show you very good reversal setups and they're clean. you can also find very good ABCD patterns that that you can miss on the lower timeframes. I would like to show you the detailson a four-hour chart and how you can stay out of trouble when this Market actually expanded which completely changes the way you should look at the market especially when you're trying to find trade location.
Transition to selling?The S&P 500 daily structure for Monday was balance between the buyers and sellers. Asia session is weaker and it does imply follow-through to the downside. However, I am not looking for dramatic move lower. Also, be aware of the possibility of a bounce if indeed we do move lower.
SPX - Downside into Thanksgiving?It's a great day in the world and I hope you're having a great day as well. I'm looking at the potential for SPX to make a downward move going into next week as it has in prior years.
I'm looking at a 5 wave structure down from the highs in early November followed by what currently appears to be a 3 wave structure up into where we currently are.
If the structure is correct, we should move up a little bit today into the golden zone that I've outlined on the chart and reject from there. If we do get that rejection and we start to take out some of the pivots which I outlined in the video, we should have increased confidence in the short idea.
Nothing is certain and all trades should have risk managed in some way or another, but we should see a move down to 5800 if this holds true. It's about a 180 point move from where we are now with only about 25 point risk.
Trade carefully and always ask questions in the comments below if you have them.
Continue to be cautious on ES - History vs FOMOIf you don't feel like listening to the video, I basically review some trades outside of the ES, and discuss the potential concerns for the ES market.
It seems to be a throw spaghetti at the wall and expect everything to stick market, in spite of much of historical data calling for a major downtrend to be coming up. This has led me to more or less remain away from the S&P other than a short on the recent Trump Pump that I already cashed out.
I see more potential for the Euro and Canadian Dollar to regain some level of historical average. I am getting sell signals based on my algorithms into Gold and Oil today. I will evaluate those later, as I'm not sure I'm ready to feel the risk in those just yet as Gold as also suffered from extreme FOMO and Oil is already a bit lower than my expectation of average price around $70-$75.
My algo is pinging signals in;
GC
CL
PL
ZO
ZM
HO
RB
10Y
BTC (I've never traded this, FYI)
Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
S&P Mini11.19.24 the S&P is expanding to the point where it looks like it's going to be more tradable. a significant changes happened today. if I tried to scalp the market today I could have made money but it wouldn't have been much money because the market really didn't show the expansion until the last couple bars of the day and if I had used extensions to judge when to initiate a trade I wouldn't have gotten the signals based on the way the market was Trading. today I did a 40-minute video but I didn't have auditory. I don't have time to do another 40 minute video so I am posting this chart which will look different each day that I don't look at the market and I don't want to lose this chart because I will show you how the markets expand even further as I expect they will and how that will help me make a trade it's not only more reliable but more profitable. there's always guess work when you try to find an optimal trade location but if the Market's expanding is much easier by far to take a trade and also trade for bigger Rewards and that is what I think is happening here.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #4 - ES ShortNice move for ES this morning up off the bottom end of the range. Now it's all the way back to the top. I expect a rejection here, but if it breaks at least I'll know it's time to exit shorts. Next upside target would be 5955.
If it works out, downside target will be 5900 first and then we'll see if it can break any lower. Lots of things lining up to make this a great trade long or short. NQ is nearly the same chart not surprisingly. VX at critical support and the bottom end of its range too. I expect a move from here, liking the short side for now but that could change.
Es Morning UpdateYesterday (as mentioned in the plan sent out Wednesday’s), I was anticipating a rally to 5993, the flag resistance from the November high in #ES_F. After an 80-point move, buyers got to 5986 and sold off.
As of now: 5961 and 5954 are key supports. Holding above keeps 5972 and 5980 in play. Consolidation here could set up 5998+. If 5954 fails, expect a dip to 5942, then 5917. Protect capital.
ES to rally
ES could reach R6 tomorrow or monday, if you swing trade it doesn't matter
daytradi g is inherently dangerous and high risk. yes it is more fun, but develop the self control to ride the waves, measures by EWT and the Pivots and make bigger profits
learn patience and discipling to win.
The buy was signaled yesterday at S6, the crazy looking pattern on the chart is 5 waves up, followed by an ABC down, followed by a bounce of S3 ( buy level ) now on wave to up on 30m
Test PostTest Post ONLY
Buyers wasted no time, reclaiming 5886-88 and pushing us right back to our first target (5910). It’s a level-to-level market today, (as it is most days) with 5886 staying the key “money magnet” pivot. The next targets are 5922, followed by 5934. Lock in gains level to level—don’t get greedy in these conditions.
The never Ending cycleEveryone on Trading View hasheard me explain how the Pivot Points, and Elliot wave Theory. ES and NQ have already rallied since he close back up to R3 with an R5 predicted. SPY, QQQ, TSLL, NVDX and other exchange traded funds *should* follow they up, as what non Futures traders see what they call a gap up.
The ES Futures already have recovered almost to yesterday's high R5, which ES is already a R3 pre-market.
Just don't take the loss if you were all in long yesterday, and didn't take the loss on purpose. The right response is to wait for the cycle to go back up on the ETFs and Stocks.
www.tradingview.com
Why do you think the Bilderbergs published this news now, why this timing?
We should see what we call a Turnaround Tuesday, as the never ending cycle ranges between S6 and R6.
ES Support BreakFutures are moving lower after Trump's post about tariffs, I don't think this news is significant, but we could move down tomorrow on technicals alone. Currently trading below today's low of day, we had a pretty big rejection this morning and couldn't hold above 6k or 5990. If we do not reclaim 6k overnight or shortly after open tomorrow, bulls may be in trouble.
Here are some potential downside paths. We have trendline support below followed by horizontal support around 5954. A break below 5954 could cause a quick flush down to around 5900 - 5880.
ES Morning Session Review 11-21-24Going over the morning session ES looking back for clues as to what the market was telling us. extremely difficult day. did barely any trades today. got stopped on a bunch of swing longs but keep working hard. tomorrow is a new day. taking it light rest of the day unless we get some A+ setups after 2pm EST
Not expecting volatilityThe structure on the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies an inside type day which means were not looking for a dramatic increase in volatility to the upside or downside unless we have new news to motivate the market for a directional move.
S&P Profit Taking | Future Long Trade Plans Post ElectionThe SPX rallied on optimism post Election results on economic revival hopes.
Likely a lot of profit taking has occurred across risk assets like this one as prices reached all time highs. There always has to be a time where profits are removed and taken off the table for gains to be realised.
It is likely however that if current sentiment continues we will see further inflows into risk assets at key areas (see local support and 100MA).
Within the optimism of the current up move, this is likely to be a preferred 'scale in' area for longer term investors, with further longs likely lower.
Be very careful on any longs. One switch in Sentiment and the Market falls drastically on panic. Any earlier longs should be incredibly light to reflect the fact that if you are buying now it is way along the demand curve.
Would not be surprised (on current sentiment/price action if price dribbles) but would not take any new shorts this late. Only really prefer very light shorts back at another high hit.
Es/SPX Morning Update Nov25thBuyers let patience pay off. Last week (and the week before) had formed a 2-week bull flag with 5980 resistance. Mentioned that if 6002 clears if could give us momentum to 6017. Buyers gapped up over night and now we are sitting exact at 6017.
As of now: Let runners ride if you have them. 6009 (weak) and 6002 are supports. Holding above keeps 6027-32, 6046+ in play. A failure at 6002 could lead to a gap fill lower.
Full Game Plan for Monday Nov 25thPlan for Monday’s Session
Supports:
• Major: 5972, 5945, 5933, 5908, 5899, 5884-5882, 5869, 5855, 5845, 5828, 5818, 5802, 5782, 5760, 5752, 5731, 5709-11, 5691, 5683.
• Minor: 5980, 5967, 5961, 5957, 5948, 5944, 5928, 5922, 5914, 5904, 5893, 5878, 5865, 5850, 5839, 5835, 5812, 5806, 5793, 5777, 5740, 5721, 5702, 5695.
Resistances:
• Major: 5988, 6002, 6017, 6027, 6032, 6050, 6070, 6082, 6093, 6111-13, 6132, 6138, 6172, 6189.
• Minor: 5993, 5998, 6009, 6023, 6038, 6046, 6056, 6062, 6075, 6101, 6117, 6146, 6156, 6165, 6178.
**Context and Strategy:**
ES is coming off a strong Friday close at 5988, right at a key resistance zone. Price action remains in a clear uptrend, but with no major pullbacks or basing structure formed, actionable setups for Monday will require patience. Those who have been here should know what I'm going to say. My absolute least favorite time to trade is days after trend leg. My job is to get in before these big moves. After they play out, my job is done, and I just need to sit and wait for the next setup to appear. This requires one of two things 1) A sharp pullback or 2) Structure (basing to form). If we just keep trending up, there is nothing for me other than holding my runners and letting them do the work. Patients will be verified on Monday.
**Key Levels for Monday:**
1. First Support at 5972: A dip and recovery here could provide a solid base for continuation higher.
2. Major Support at 5945: If 5972 fails, 5945 becomes the next key level. This area has been well-tested and could provide a reaction or bounce, but the cleanest trade would come from a failed breakdown here.
3. Resistance at 6002: A breakout above this level opens the door for higher targets, including 6017 and 6027.
**Bull Case for Monday:**
• Hold Above 5972: Bulls maintain control as long as price holds 5972. A flag or consolidation at this level would create a strong base for a push higher.
• Breakout Through 6002: Reclaiming 6002 and holding above it could fuel momentum toward 6017 and 6027.
• Structure Above 5988: Building a base above 5988 and below 6002 creates a launchpad for further upside.
**Bear Case for Monday:**
• Breakdown Below 5972: A failure at 5972 would likely lead to a test of 5945. I’d need to see a good bounce attempt here and/or failed breakdown (something like test 5967 then recover 72). After this, I’d short below wherever the lows are (probably something like 5964).
• Failed Breakdown at 5945: As always, breakdown trades carry higher risk. Same drill at a 5972 short...A dip below 5945 that recovers quickly could signal a trap for shorts. Wait for confirmation (e.g., a bounce that pays out buyers and then a loss of the lows) before entering.
• Exhaustion at Resistance: Bears can also look for sell reactions at key resistances (6002, 6017) to test lower supports. I never short resistances. Win rate is too low for my liking
**Summary for Monday:**
• Bullish Lean: As long as 5972 holds, the short-term trend remains intact. Watch for opportunities to break out above 6002, targeting 6017 and 6027.
• Bearish Lean: Bears need to break below 5972 or 5945 to regain control and push the market lower toward 5933 and 5908. Failed breakdown setups, however, remain the safer option for entering long positions.
Reminder:
Patience is critical. It’s safer to wait for failed breakdown setups than longing after direct tests, especially at key supports, and confirm with volume before entering long positions if you want to be super precise. Avoid chasing momentum and let the market come to you.
S&P 500 - weakening ahead of year end?So, a small pull back completed after the 6000 mark, but looking in a wider range, we can see the initial target (5750), after breaking the cup and handle, was passed and stretched for quite some time now.
We are now in the mid of the thanksgiving rally, which will completed probably at the end of the upcoming.
And to be honest, as i read it, and a i already mentions in the nq 100 analysis, the bulls are trying to understand what to do next, and we can see also with the actions on nvda, goog, etc.
my read on this, there is going to be another attempt to push to the top, maybe it will create double top, and then profit taking steps.
I think first target will be around the 5600, to close the gap over there, and depending on the its strength, i think it can go as low as 5200-5400.
Stay safe
