The stage is setThe stage is set in the S&P 500 daily chart for a potential kick in volatility on Friday as we go into the weekend. Even though we've had a down day on Thursday, the potential for a rally is set up.
ESZ2018 trade ideas
S&P 500 – Corrective Structure in Progress
Everything is unfolding as planned for TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY OANDA:SPX500USD : after a completed impulse to the downside, we're seeing a complex WXY correction, with wave (y)potentially ending around the 0.618 retracement level and the MA20w.
Currently, wave B of the second leg is developing. Once it's complete, we may see a final push upward before a larger wave C to the downside.
⚠️ Key area to watch: 5780–5840 CME_MINI:ES1! zone for potential exhaustion.
ES Update1) My apologies for getting the PCE release date wrong, it's Friday, not today. Still made money on my XLF calls plus AAPL also went up this morning.
2) There's a small open gap on ES, RTY, and YM from the one hour break after market close. It looks like it might fill overnight. Make sure you check tomorrow morning.
3) The gap below is still open, and it looks like 3hr MFI and RSI want to hit oversold tomorrow.
4) Sorry for not checking the news, I can barely even make trades on my phone while at work. Had I known today was auto tariff day, I would have played things differently.
Personally, I think PCE numbers are a moo point (my Friends will get the joke) because auto tariffs will drive inflation up, but there's bound to be a bounce when MFI and RSI get oversold. If I decide to go long tomorrow, it'll probably just be a handful of XLF calls again.
XLF will probably dip tomorrow because higher auto prices means fewer auto loans and higher inflation this summer. Market will still go up Friday if indicators get oversold, so it's just a quick play, not an investment.
At this point, all I can recommend is that you keep an eye on the 3 hr indicators, seems to be working well. Also, XLF and AAPL completed intraday patterns from yesterday, so there is that too.
ES UpdateSo MFI hit oversold this morning as the gap filled, so I figured we'd get a bounce....
but it looks like hedge funds sold off every algo pump and MFI totally flatlined at the bottom.
How do I know hedge funds were liquidating? Crap like FCEL went green because they close their short positions when they close their long positions.
Yeah, I got a little stupid and lost some money today, I tried to warn my followers in my comments not to go long today, sure enough market sold off EOD.
I think it's time to do chart pattern short plays. Will let you know if I see anything good.
They Shut Down the AlgosYou can see in the chart that during the initial Feb/March drop that the algos were still running, and we'd see at least a small bounce when MFI/RSI got oversold, however you can see that they shut the algos down yesterday, MFI totally flatlined for 2 days which is something that did not happen on the initial drop.
So basically, there's no point for me to plot 3 hr charts until they turn the algos back on. I will post when that happens.
Made a bunch of mistakes this week, but managed to break even daytrading XLF puts twice today. XLF was lagging the market a bit which made it easier to trade.
ES shorts with statistical projectionsWeekly manipulation targets were hit on Monday, leaving way for bearish price action for the rest of the week. I have been bearish since Tuesday, with the bullish daily manipulation targets being hit as well. I am looking for lower prices into the bearish targets for the week.
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5619 and 5651. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Downtrend and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
ES UpdateLooks like they turned the algos on so here's the 3hr chart update.
Just because they turned the algos on doesn't mean good news for the bulls, ES MFI is almost overbought, I expect it to get there at market open. 7am right now.
So basically I'm expecting the market to fill the down gap then drop again.
Don;t expect any more updates today, I'm going to work now.
Combined US Indexes - Lower High checked; Lower Low next...As expected from previous analysis, there is a lower high likely as the TD Sell Setup is Perfected. This just missed the target but has the TD Bear Trend intact
Following, a Bearish Engulfing pattern plus a Gap Down occurred yesterday.
Breaking back into Extension Zone box... and likely to protrude out the other side.
MACD is turning down in the bearish zone too.
So, looking for a lower low now...
bearflag broke downno rate cuts but im still balling
we already tested that gap (rectangle) so a second attempt will probably close it.
that will throw us well below the year to date value range
so im looking at it as a potential bottom.
if this gap fails to hold im looking at the previous range for help and the previous value area high to turn support (classic what was once resistance is now support)
on the shorter timeframe i anticipate 5485 to act as support a small bounce can make it look like a head and shoulders pattern for the bearflag target if there's any bullish play
note this is not a trade i will take unless the data and reaction at the level will look bullish.
so make sure you know we can straight up nuke on monday. (eyes on BTC during this weekend)
anyone who saw my posts before i talked about how we need to rotate back to value thats exactly what happened.
previous range value area high was left untested, retesting it is quite the possibility. (theres a gap right above it )
ES/SPY Bottoming Process Gaining More ClarityThe George W Bush pattern still seems to be forming...taking the longer larger and more powerful form. Will the right lower part of the W take place above the lower left side, dead even or below. Certainly sentiment would lead us to believe it will be well below the left side. However, today failed to make a lower low. Selling may resume Sunday night/Monday morning or the double bottom retest may be complete....OR of course we can keep charging significantly lower.
Weekly Market Forecast: SELL THE INDICES!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of March 31st - April 4th.
The equity markets took a bearish turn last week. This is likely to continue for the upcoming week.
Monday is the end of March. Tuesday brings a new week and new opportunities. April 2nd brings... potentially market flipping volatility. The day the Trump tariffs are implemented.
Be careful. Let the market give you direction, and then get involved.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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S&P 500 Futures Potential Short OpportunitiesThe S&P 500 futures index has retraced approximately half its previous losses from a steep sell-off that began at 6148. After rejection at 5818, prices now hover precariously above critical Support at 5732.
Immediate Support Test: Failure at 5732 would trigger additional bearish pressure toward the next support levels at 5649 and 5566.
Bullish Reversal Potential: Only a decisive close above 5818 would suggest a more constructive outlook, which currently appears improbable amid elevated VIX levels.
S&P500: Persistent SupportThe S&P 500 continued its recovery following its reaction to the support at 5509 points. However, in our primary scenario, we expect the index to fall below this mark to ultimately complete wave in green within our color-matched Target Zone (coordinates: 4988 points – 4763 points). Within this range, there are entry opportunities for long positions, which could be hedged with a stop 1% below the Zone’s lower boundary. Once the corrective movement has reached its low, the final upward movement of the green wave structure should commence. In the process, the index should gain significantly and reach the high of wave above the resistance at 6166 points. If this mark is surpassed prematurely, our alternative scenario with a 30% probability will come into play.
ES/SPY Possible Enhancement On Idea.As per usually channel lines are nice but common price action includes big pushes past them and then reclaiming them. This provides great opportunities for big money to run the stops, scoop of the shares, paint a big wick and keep trucking. It's how the game is played and provides no real ability as to where to count on a bottom or to put stops. Non the less the channel lines provide an idea as to where to see signs of traction or of course a top for further bull traps or sell offs. Personally I think peak tariffs fears are near and at some point the market will accept them and move on.
ES Melt upLook at the MFI, it's pegged. I guess we get a melt up, at least until tomorrow's PCE numbers. Maybe even into next Monday.
Anyways, I woke up, called in sick, and re-entered my AAPL trade this morning, I figured with TSLA's bad news they'd have to pump AAPL instead to get the market green, and they did. Plus XLF gapped up too much, though I suppose I could have bought that too when it went red on the gap close. Gonna just hold the AAPL calls as my PCE trade for tomorrow morning.
Expecting a slight kick up EOD because of PCE bets. Until then probably just a sideways whipsaw
Q1 Recap and What’s AheadThe first quarter of 2025 saw significant price movements in many different asset classes. Traders saw equity indices broadly selling off with the ES contract falling near 10% from the highs while Gold continued to push higher to all time high levels. There are many factors contributing to the price movement, including a shift in the administration in the U.S., geopolitical tensions globally, and critical tariff announcements looming. There are also questions about the Fed environment and the strategy that will be implemented this year to begin cutting interest rates. Looking at the CME Fed Watch Tool today, it seems the market is pricing another rate pause for the May meeting and a near 60% chance of rate cuts coming in June.
There is a large slate of economic date coming out for the rest of the week that could add great volatility to this uncertain market, including:
Tariff Announcement
Initial Jobless Claims
Nonfarm Payroll
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings
This morning, traders saw the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change come in higher than expected and the markets are having a mixed reaction. President Trump will be speaking at 3:00 P.M. Central Time to introduce the tariff plan and how it will be rolled out, adding a level of clarity for the market moving forward into Q2.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
