ES1! trade ideas
Weekly S&P ProyectionSince the market did not correct as expected, this opens up the possibility for a new period of euphoria. As show in the graph this has happened before from the year 2020 to 2022. Price is typically considered to not follow a normal distribution, therefore using one to estimate if price is over extended has its flaws. This is because the true distribution of a security is a multinomial distribution, where price can either go up, down or stay equal.
The reason price behaves in such an odd manner is because price, has 2 unknown probabilities. Such probabilities can be calculated for the past, but not for the future. These are the probability of a price increase, and the probability of price staying the same, consequently the probability of price decreasing will be 1 minus the sum of the two previous probabilities. The value of such probabilities also fluctuates, and is determined by the market. When a market becomes overexcited, the probability of price increasing is closer to 1 than it's other counter probabilities. When this happens, a normal model no longer becomes suitable for estimating the limits of the distribution.
If one has a multinomial distribution, thought of as a graph with nodes in a shape of a 3D tree, where each node has a relationship with 3 subsequent nodes. Where each relationship carries one of the probabilities mentioned before (with no repetitions). Starting with 1 initial node, then 4 then 16 … previous+previous*3n. One is able to create a mental map of true, the price action distribution. From these, one could calculate new limits, by using bootstrapping.
However, since the computational power of such algorithm is complex, we can use the mean returns indicator to evaluate the trend and see that currently the trend is positive. This would mean that the probability of increasing is most likely also closer to one. If the mean returns were at 0 then the probability of price staying the same would be closer to one, and if it's below zero the same is true for a downtrend. Currently, the trend is positive, and not close to the theoretical limits of price action. This means that the probability of seeing a skewed distribution in the future are relatively high. However, if you still use a normal distribution to estimate the limits, then price is due for a correction. Only time will tell, as over excitement can move markets past their technical limits, and that is something that will always be a flaw in any technical approach to model price action.
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Donald Trump Allows All-Time Highs To Print!We are in undiscovered price territory meaning that i will be basing my bias on psychological price points.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov7thOn Wednesday, buyers triggered longs at 5902, sending us all the way to our 6013 target right to the tick yesterday. Now investors are taking a breather, holding around 6000 for the last 17 hours. I often mention how the day after trend legs are experienced traders’ least favorite days to trade. Longs are risky do to chasing. Shorts are risky due to being against the trend. And because of these two, the chance for chop is VERY high. Keep this in your head today…and after day after rallies.
As of now: Continue holding runners if you have them from yesterday. Expect chop between 6009-5979, with 6000 acting as a mid-pivot point. Levels to watch are 6009-13, and 6035-38 if we push higher. If 5978 breaks, a dip is finally on the table.
ES price action review Overnight session 10-8-24Going over the price action overnight ES and looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. setting up 3 possible game plans for the market but we will not dictate what the market does but rather listen to what the market is telling us. only A+ setups today. no setup no trade end of story. we're not losing $$$ on a Friday. we will add a weekend Focus list review and a new crypto review as we need exposure to all these asset classes regularly.
ES price ACtion REview 11-7-24 RTHGoing over the RTH ES looking for clues as to what the market was telling us. how we could have traded better and where we should have been focused at.
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. All bullish targets are met for me and I will not long anything above 5980 anymore. Too early for shorts, wait for bears to come around with force. Blow-off top with 6050 or 6100 is not out of the question, so best to join on momentum or sit on hands. Next big points will be made to the downside.
comment: All my bullish targets are now met and I would not look for longs above 5980. I got one more measured move higher to 6160 but that’s just beyond insane to expect this to be hit. But so was 6000 and here we are. All bubbles burst eventually, so will this.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 5720 - 6013
bull case: Bulls got 6000 and now want to continue and make this look like a real breakout above the bull wedge to trap many weak traders into longing this above 6000 and make them exit liquidity. At least that’s what I see potentially happening here. No interest in longs up here or looking for arguments for bulls. This is the biggest bubble there ever was. Next big points will be made to the downside.
Invalidation is below 5720.
bear case: Bears still don’t have much. The selling will start once enough bulls begin to take profits. Market is trying again to break above a multi week bull pattern and those rarely succeed. Don’t try to be an early bear and burn your account. This could easily go 50-100 points higher before turning. Measured move down from 6000 to 5730 leads exactly to the September low, where the bull trend line started. If we hit that price in 2024, you read this here first.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term : Neutral. Scalps only for me until bears come around big time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
Update 2024-11-07: Blow-off top happening right now and 6013 could be the end of it, I don’t know. Next comes the correction before bulls try another run at the highs during santa rally.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anwhere. Again. 1h 20ema not touched since Tuesday. Trends do not get stronger than this.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 10-7-24 FOMC incomingGoing over the price action looking for clues the market is leaving us so we can setup our plan for the day. No trade setups no trades today. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong.
Combined US Equities - Put away all technicals for now.Oddly enough, I did not follow one of the great events of 2024. And prior analyses was made on technical indication.
When a reversal like this happens, it is rather extreme, and technicals can be put aside. With the election outcome, markets are suddenly RISK ON and very bullish.
You see this bullishness with a Marubozu type candle that broke through two resistance levels in one day - breaking into and out of the Decision Box marked.
MACD is now skewed to the bullish side although VolDiv has yet to follow. This means price moved a lot before volume.
Previous projection is redundant now.
The only indication was that the day before yesterday, a nice small bullish candlestick was suggesting a breakout to the upside.
Going forward, just enjoy the ride, and make sure you have rules to adhere to!
All the best!
E-mini S&P 500 Futures
The price is trending upwards, as shown by the recent higher highs and higher lows following a bounce from a previous downtrend. The price is currently above the 50-day moving average, which is a bullish signal.
The Bollinger Bands indicate periods of high and low volatility. The price has recently tested the upper band, indicating a potentially overbought condition or strong bullish momentum. This could lead to either a pullback or consolidation.
The volume bars indicate an increase in trading volume, especially recently. Rising volume with rising price confirms the uptrend and suggests strong interest in the current direction.
Resistance is near the recent highs, close to 6,000. If the price breaks above this level, it may signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
Support is around 5,800, close to the lower Bollinger Band. This level could act as a floor if there's a pullback.
Overall, the trend appears to be bullish, but caution is warranted as a reversion could occur if overbought conditions persist. The uptrend is likely to continue if the price holds above the moving average and moves higher on increased volume. Traders should watch for potential pullbacks towards the 5,800 level and keep an eye on volume and the interaction with the Bollinger Bands for signs of either continuation or reversal.
RTH ES PRICE REVIEW 11-6 ELECTION DAYGoing through price action ES RTH looking for clues the market was leaving today. great day to review and reflect.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov 6thAs outlined for the past two days, ES put in a textbook failed breakdown on Monday of last Thursdays lows, triggering a long at 5734 that delivered over 216 points during the election. Like i mentioned often, 95% of rallies start from failed breakdowns. This was no different.
As of now: 5919-22 is key support. Flagging above this keeps 5955 and 5973 in play. Dips are only in focus below 5919.
ES price action review for 11-6 + overnight session US Electiongoing over the RTH ES price action and the overnight price action for the US election. looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and setting a plan for today day after Election.
$SPY $ES Daily&Weekly AnalysisThe videos shows my interpretation of the (S) and (R) i see on daily&week.
Daily: we see (S) formed on 9/23 and it's still being used
causes us to bounce that (S) to test prev (R) & 10ma(R) today on Daily!
Week: we see it's still holding above 10MA as (S)
we also have new (R) form 10/14~10/25.
Bull's plan: Waiting for Daily to reclaim10ma from (R) to (S), and aim prev Lower High (R) ~5821 then ATH(R) ~5915
Bear's plan: Waiting for Daily to reject current (R) to test prev (S) ~5745
2024-11-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Who wants to be long into election day? That question pondered my mind couple of times today but here we are. Surprising bull strength. I said it was too soon for the bigger second bear leg down but today was also too strong for bulls at this point. No bigger opinion on today’s price action. Most markets traded back up to the 50% retracement and near their daily 20ema and that spot is as neutral as it gets. Still leaning more bearish than bullish and I would not be surprised if the Globex session sell this hard.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Bulls had a good day and a buy vacuum up to the 50% retracement and daily 20ema. Bears have to come up with something big to reverse this. On the daily chart you can see the candle bodies from 2 weeks ago stayed above 5830, which is my highest target for bulls for now. If they go above that, they might as well melt to the bear trend line 5870.
current market cycle: trading range (chance that we are already in a bear trend is there)
key levels: 5730 - 5840
bull case: Bulls want to get a measured move up from today, which would lead to 5900. For now I don’t think the odds are too good for that but today’s strength was also surprising. Above 5830 I think most bears will give up.
Invalidation is below 5730.
bear case: Bears have to defend their big leg down from last week and they should keep it below 5830. They could see this as a buy vacuum to test the daily 20ema and we go down from here. My W4 target from my weekly outlook was 5800, so we are still close enough for this to be correct.
Invalidation is above 5830.
short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5830. Want to see this reverse completely and then some.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying US open I guess.
2024 Election Day Market AnalysisIn this video, I provide comprehensive market analysis focusing on:
1. Market Structure Analysis
- Examining price action patterns and technical levels for major futures contracts:
* ES (E-mini S&P 500)
* NQ (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
* CL (Crude Oil)
* GC (Gold)
2. Liquidity Pool Analysis
- Identifying and tracking significant areas of liquidity
3. Scenario Analysis
- Pre-Post-election scenarios:
* Potential market reactions to polling data
* Volatility expectations
4. Multiple Timeframe Analysis
- Intraday (short-term) movements
- Daily trends
- Weekly patterns
- Monthly market outlook
ES price ACtion Review 11-4 RTH and overnight sEssion ESGoing over yesterdays price action and last night overnight session. looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we're starting to become laser focus in our core setups. no setup no trade today. always remember where you'll get out if you're wrong. Freedom has a price and that price is that we work on ourselves harder than our job everyday. the bill comes due everyday. did i do enough? what do i have to work on? God Bless America
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days.
Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then.
February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses
July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse
September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts
September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy
November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm
Were are we today?
Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment.
Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis.
Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event).
Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again?
I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there.
I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
ES Levels and Targets Nov 4thOn Friday, 5802 was the primary target for ES as a major backtest, and we saw a sell-off from there. The 5740 support, talked about Sunday in group, held exactly on target with a bounce last night.
As of now: 5760 is today’s support level. Already defended once. Holding above it keeps 5779, 5792, and 5797-5802 in play. If 5760 breaks, a retest of 5740 is sellers target, which is now a weaker support.
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators.
The SG10Y is about to break out
The JNK bonds are breaking down
Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now)
The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over.
Leads have turned down or are at the turning point.
Heads up!
Bullish channel looks like we just went back into a bullish channel.
From what i though was a break of channel last night.. will be going bullish again. unless otherwise
If the election is bearish how far could we fall?i think were experimenting with the idea that presidential elections cause volatility no matter what, and that volatility is a cyclical buy noatter who wins. that being said if we fail to regain TRAMA and supertrend remains sell, the sequence could complete a bear cycle and we wouldnt find support until daily gap close. i would still treat this as a buy for broader markets, and thats why im using sunday night futures as a bell weather for this crucial week in spx. the last time a bear engulfing pattern developed daily that broke through average and geaded for the former buy zone we extended the trend about 100% to the downside. that would be far from a marginal move for the index as it stands, but would still hold the monthly and quarterly uptrend.
Full Trading Plan For Monday Nov 4thPlan for Monday
Supports:
• Major: 5760-63, 5740, 5728-30, 5712, 5692, 5677, 5661, 5646-50, 5616, 5599-5602, 5590, 5575, 5563, 5544, 5524-28, 5499-5502
• Minor: 5756, 5751, 5745, 5723, 5715, 5702, 5683, 5672, 5667, 5654, 5638, 5633, 5627, 5621, 5578, 5558, 5552, 5534, 5517, 5511, 5506
Overview:
We’re moving into a high-volatility week with the upcoming election and FOMC. Most volatility is expected post-election (Tuesday evening and Wednesday) with FOMC on Thursday, creating a challenging trading environment with broad, two-way swings. Conditions should be favorable for failed breakdowns, with more detailed guidance to come in other days plans this week. For now, we saw organized price movement: elevator down on Thursday, short squeeze relief on Friday, back-testing 5802, then rejection. Bulls haven’t reclaimed significant levels (like 5802), but they’ve held prior lows, and the 5802 rejection was gradual. The relief bounce remains live until 5728-30 fails. Closing near 5760-63, this level could pop again, but headline risk suggests waiting until Sunday’s open for an entry. Below, a strong support cluster sits at 5740 and 5728-30. Testing 5740 could be viable, but 5728-30 is a safer bid zone, especially if it sets up a failed breakdown near recent lows. If this zone breaks, it’s likely we’ll see an “elevator down” scenario like Thursday. Below 5728-30, I’m not rushing to long, but levels like 5712, 5692, and 5677 could be interesting zones for potential reactions, especially 5677.
Key Zones for Monday:
• 5740: Major support; bears might push through. Look for a possible recovery above 5740 as a sign for a long setup.
• 5728-30: Critical support; if breached, approach with caution, i will be waiting for clear failed breakdowns before entering here
• 5712, 5692, and 5677: Areas of interest lower down. These levels may offer potential entries, but patience is advised to observe reactions.
Resistances:
• Major: 5783, 5797-5802, 5820, 5826-28, 5854, 5864, 5880, 5886, 5911, 5919-22, 5937, 5953, 5965, 5976
• Minor: 5770, 5779, 5792, 5807, 5813, 5838, 5842, 5848, 5861, 5868, 5873, 5892, 5898, 5902, 5906, 5914, 5928, 5944,
The back-test short setup off 5802 worked well on Friday. Revisiting 5797-5802 on Monday may yield another short opportunity, though it’s not as fresh. Safer shorts may present at 5820 or 5826-28, which should produce a more decisive reaction.
Bull Case for Monday:
Bulls haven’t done much to show control but have managed to survive. The relief bounce holds as long as 5728-30 doesn’t break, suggesting continued back-tests of Thursday’s major breakdown zones. This scenario sees 5740 or 5728-30 holding on deep flushes. In an ideal setup, bulls maintain above 5760 and push up directly. A typical path might involve a test of 5802, followed by a dip, filling out the range, then advancing to 5826-28. Adding around 5760-63 or pops above 5670 may be worth exploring, but patience is recommended.
Bear Case for Monday:
The bear case strengthens if 5728-30 fails. As noted daily, breakdown trades below support carry risks. Failed breakdowns are often the norm, with roughly 80% of breakdown attempts resulting in traps. These setups are advanced and should be executed cautiously. Even for skilled traders, over 60% of breakdown trades may fail, with only the occasional setup yielding high returns. If this risk isn’t tolerable, or if you’re newer to trading, it’s wise to avoid these trades. I generally avoid chasing setups; the zone needs to be tested with a clear failed breakdown before shorting, potentially around 5723 or below based on the structure.
Summary for Monday:
The focus remains on the election. We’re in a relief bounce from Thursday’s lows. My bias leans toward a continuation of this bounce, potentially revisiting 5797-5802, then dipping to target 5828. If 5728-30 breaks, the relief bounce is invalid, likely initiating a next leg lower, potentially below 5700.
