Morning Price Action Review ES 7-23-24Going over the Morning sEssion ES looking for clues as to how we could have managed and traded better.
ES1! trade ideas
Seasonality and Elliottwave pattern show correction for SP500We saw SP500 breaking to new ATH this month, but then market sharply reversed which is not a surprise as index formed an ending diagonal at the top of the recent rise. These type of the patterns are very powerful, and can cause a strong "unexpected" erased of some of the previous gains.
Well, we can see an impulsive reversal on smaller time frame, so be aware of more weakness and deeper correction this summer. Sesonality chart also shows that there can be period of consolidation before market resumes even higher, possibly in September when FED may cut, or during US ellections.
Grega
ES levels and targets July 23Yesterday, buyers broke the 3 day streak of red. I gave 3 targets: 5604 (hit, we spent yesterday here), 5616-17 (just hit exact), 5630.
As of now: Keep riding the runners if you have them. 5611, 5602 are supports. Keeps 5630-33, reaction there, then 5646+ in play. 5602 fails (weak now), we dip 5585 again
ES OverNight price Action ReviewGoing over the overnight session looking for clues as to how we want to trade today.
ES may still have some volatiliesThis week we have OPEX (Option Expiration) and some earnings of big caps like AAPL and META. I am expecting some volatilities may continue for the whole week. ES bounced back to yesterday high after European session closed.
The big question, why did ES stope at the High US early session and high of Friday ? I am expecting kind of cooling off movement, drop back to Value area of yesterday.
That high becomes a poor high , and will be noted for any potential break out, but may not be today.
ES Day's Price ACtion REview 7-22-24Going over the day's price action. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we could have traded better. management and discipline is what makes champions and that is our focus goal for the next 3 months.
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Not too much to add after the dax analysis. 50% pb for sp500 is 5632, so market has some room higher. Daily 20ema is around 5600 and I do think the odds of the market turning down again to test the lows or make lower lows, is higher than going above 5630.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped and is now deflating. Enjoy the ride down.
key levels: 5540 - 5620
bull case: Bulls want at least the 50% pb and as long as they stay above the bull trend line 5575ish, their bull case is valid. One market broke above the 1h 20ema, it could not get a close below it and that’s strength by the bulls. They need follow through tomorrow and probably some force to get above 5632. That price is the 50% pb and also the breakout price, so two good reasons to go there again.
Invalidation is below 5600.
bear case: Bears need a proper channel for more downside, so they stepped aside enough today for bulls to get a bounce. Their target now is to stay below 5632 and not let the bulls gain too much hope again. No deeper analysis today, please see my weekly post.
Invalidation is above 5660.
short term: Neutral until market found the lower high and trades back down. Should be around 5630. If the minor bull trend line is broken, bearish to 5500 and below 5500 is hell.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months.
current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”.
trade of the day: Bulls made more money today. Buying anywhere near the minor bull trend line or at the 15m 20ema was good enough. Buying bar 45 or latest 47 was a very good trade.
ES Daily Preparation 23/07/24Multi-interval analysis:
On the one-year time frame, buyers reacted and the maximum price of the Friday session was broken. There was an inter-interval sequence: reaction to the level from D1 - Return to the value zone from the H1/M30 interval - continuation?
Scenarios for the session on Tuesday:
Continuation of growth with the goal of testing July vwap around 624.
There, you should be careful about the possibility of sellers appearing there.
If buyers maintain the advantage after the vwap test, their target will be the prices from scenario 4 in the run-up to the week. The assumption of this scenario is to return to the balance level of the current month around 640. The next target for buyers will be MVah around 677.
If sellers enter the market after the July vwap test around 624, their first goal will be to bring the price down to the MVal level around 572.
This decline may continue, which will confirm that Monday's session was a "branding" of positive sentiment.
20240719 ESI anticipate some more downside into next d bisi CE level => Final hour spooling to the upside into TGIF level at the w bisi bottom and above the REH.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-22 - Pressure System ImprovementsThis is a short video showing you the progress I'm making on the MENT Pressure System for daytraders.
When I started this project, I was looking for a way to help daytraders understand trending, pullbacks, targets, and moderate price rotation.
I knew some of the techniques I use could help, but I wanted to create a visual solution to allow traders to SEE the opportunities, trends, and other setups. So, I decided to try to create my own solution.
After about 4+ days of coding and playing with PineScript (only putting about 1~2 hours a day into the project) - this is the current project and how it works.
The one thing I'm very pleased with is the Fibonacci Price Theory module. It does almost everything I wanted it to do right now.
Currently, I'm working on better identification of triggers, targets, pullback "Air" and other features.
I just wanted to show it off a bit and to highlight the new Adaptive MA system - which I think will help identify the missing components.
I welcome your feedback.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Es Levels & Targets July 22ndExcellent follow through this morning in ES. Last week, we saw 3 days of “short the pop”. This took us down to 5542 support. We held it to the tick, and rallied 40+ points from there to 5568, and 5585 target now
As of now: 5568 is support. As long as above, 5598, 5604, 5630 next. Dip if 5568 fails again. Check full trading plan I posted yesterday. Should've already got you paid.
Sunday to Overnight Session price action review ES 7-22-24Going over the sunday price action and the overnight session in ES. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how to position for the day. Execute when your system sais go manage risk and let price do whatever it wants. that is the formula for growth.
ES Day Trading analysisOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5647. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures approaching ATHs @ 4841.50Wednesday, January 10, 2024 @ 9:14am (price at 4792.75)
Monthly
- Fibonacci📈 marked to the upside from low of March 2020 (2174.00) to December 2023 high (4841.50)
- Inside (consolidation) month, price is currently above Dec 2023 50% level (4695.25)
- MACD continues on an uptrend for the 3rd straight month
- RSI currently at 61.91 moving sideways
Weekly
- Inside week, bullish🎯4828.00; bearish🎯4702.00
- MACD curling down, RSI moving sideways at 65.60
Daily
- 2u-2u-2u continuation @4792.75 (currently not enforced)
- MACD curling to the upside
- RSI moving sideways at 61.05
- 0.618 Fib 📉 to the downside being touched at the 4788.25 level. If price goes above 0.9 fib📉 (4827.50), price may continue to all-time highs at 4841.50.
ES Levels & Targets for July 22ndPlan for Monday: supports are 5542-44 (major), 5535, 5528 (major), 5519, 5511, 5498-5500 (major), 5491 (major), 5484, 5474 (major), 5467, 5457 (major)
It should go without saying, as I have emphasized since Wednesday: Bears are still in control until we see a significant reclaim of key breakdown points from last week. Hopefully, last week served as a valuable lesson in trading downtrends, as these skills have likely dulled over recent months. When bears are in control, all long positions will struggle, regardless of their apparent strength, and follow-through will be weak. Attempting to catch sustained bottoms is as useless as trying to pick sustained tops during an uptrend. While there are opportunities for gains on the long side, they won't last or lead to a squeeze until ES recovers some major resistance levels. For Monday, these will be 5568, and 5604 (the big one now). In terms of supports, 5542-44 is first down, and we already tested it and defended once Friday, making it weaker for Monday. I won’t be buying this again personally. If we flush it and reclaim though, it may present an option to add since this lvl hasnt trapped shorts yet. Below there, we sell again to 5528. I’d be interested in trying a small size long here. Could it fail? Of course, but that is just the cost of business when trying to long in downtrends. If that goes, I am not interested in longing again until 5498-5500, and a failed breakdown of the July second low at 5502 would be quite attractive.
Resistances are 5552, 5560, 5568-66 (major), 5575, 5581-85 (major), 5588, 5598, 5604 (major), 5611, 5617 (major), 5621, 5632-34 (major). If buyers reclaim 5568-66 on Monday, we will probably squeeze. 5604 may have another dip left in it if we get there (though this is already very well tested), and the 5630-32 area also is likely to produce a dip on the backtest.
Buyers case: sellers control for now obviously and there is no “buyers case” until they do something to tell me otherwise. There are many overhead resistances that must reclaim now to build back a legitimate buyers case (5568, 5604, then 5630), with 5568 being first up. There may be a long available above this. But you will have to read the action in real time. As always, one does not want to rush into it especially if we dip substantially first (like crash to 5528 early on Monday). You want to see some acceptance first, then perhaps 5569 would represent a long. If buyers are very motivated, this would send us back to 5604, dip there, then run back to 5630 which is a huge resistance. Level to level profit takes though as always. Do not bank on any long working for more than a level.
Sellers case: The bear case is the default case. For Monday, this resumes on the failure of 5542. Check my July 19th plan on these type of trade setups. 5542 has been tested once already, so shorting below is slightly derisked now, but ideally I’d want to see one more test/failed breakdown, then 5540 would trigger us down. Will have to read the volume in real time. 5528 fail is also a possible attractive short, but I’d definitely need a bounce here first/failed breakdown, then short a little below.
Generally, after three days of "short the pop," sellers still have control. This trend will inevitably conclude like every dip does, with a violent short squeeze. For that to happen though, buyers need to reclaim some major resistance levels. My outlook for Monday is that if buyers can defend 5542 (and if we do dip, it should be a quick flush to 5528 then recover), we can attempt another relief pop to 5585, 5604+. If 5528 fails, we are likely heading sub 5500.
S&P Analysis S&P - short term we can see some corrections.
Short term - 5450/5500 (good buy area)
Even DXY is broken down from rising wedge channel (short term it can move upwards to test broken trendline) so expecting S&P to go up in coming days. ( See DXY Analysis which I had published)
For short term , even if S&P broken down (from orange trendline), it will bounce from long term bullish trendline(blue) which is around 5250-5300 area.
DYOR.
ES short opportunity - bears in short term controlAs posted last weekend, the convergence of two parallel channels had finally met at the 5695-5700 zone. (Shown in the yellow box area). As mentioned, shorts would be difficult until ES loses a support. ES continued higher at the beginning of the week, but soon lost its support. The short opportunity presented itself for those who were awake when ES lost its support just below 5700.
Will ES continue to the bottom of the red channel? Clearly no one knows, but the swing trade was available for those who took it and we are now 150 points below.
This week, ES will need to regain a support and if it can, then we may retest the 5700 area. There is a lot of work left for it to do. Bears are in control and I suspect we probe a little lower and hopefully regain some support later this week for a move higher.
50-50The expectation for volatility on Monday will depend on what happens with the fallout from the update bug that created tremendous uncertainty globally. If things settle down with this technology issue, look for an inside tab day. If it continues to be a problem, look for volatility to the downside and a weaker close.
ES Price action Review 7-19-24Going over the Overnight session and the day's session. reflecting back on the day and looking for clues the market left. how we could have traded it better and to prepare ourselves this weekend. great to be back full time. 1st day back a bit rusty but will adjust and prepare for battle on monday.
$es bounce Looking for a bounce at 5539.25 for 6-8 ticks. 5 contracts would profit you $375-$500.
Don’t go for home runs with prop accounts. Just 4-6 ticks is all you need.
ES Short TargetES is breaking all support levels along with NQ, so far it is a healthy pullback I would say. However, it's getting worse as we go. SPY hasn't held 550, which was my first target. Now I'm looking for ES to hit demand around 5500 along with trendline support. I'll most likely long there if it hits.
$ES top in?We got a large reversal today which makes me think that top is in for this cycle. As you can see from the chart, price went over resistance and closed back below it which is extremely bearish.
From here, I think we'll see a move down to the first support at $4800, then I think it's likely that we bounce higher to make people think we're going to see another move higher, but instead of having a sustained trend, we'll roll over down to new lows.
My base case is that we'll see the lowest supports at $2750-2900 before we see any sustainable bull market trend form.
Let's see how it plays out.
