FCEU1! trade ideas
Short EuroShort these down to order blocks below for liquidity. Resistance hit on this massive LRLR leg. Looks like on the 15 minute this long downtrend is trying to flip bullish.
Bearish Euro Futures Trade IdeaEuro futures are showing a bearish outlook, with recent Eurozone data continuing to reflect economic struggles. Ongoing concerns over weak growth and inflation expectations are weighing on the currency, while the U.S. dollar remains supported by higher interest rates and stronger economic performance. As a result, I'm looking for further downside pressure, with the Euro potentially retesting key support levels.
Bullish Euro Futures Trade IdeaEuro futures are showing signs of bullish momentum, with market sentiment shifting as traders react to improving Eurozone data and a more stable outlook. Recent developments, such as slightly dovish U.S. economic data, have provided the Euro with some relief, allowing for a potential retracement against the U.S. dollar.
Directional bias for trade filtering on lower TF , or 70 win %Hi there!
I’m excited to share a system I’ve developed called 'Zones.' These zones offer a directional bias, helping predict where price is likely to move next with a current follow-through rate of 70%. In other words, if the price exits one of the orange zones, there’s a 70% chance it will reach the next orange zone, at least touching the boundary, rather than reversing back and closing within the previous zone.
You can trade these zones directly for a 70% win rate, or use them as a directional bias to complement your existing strategy on a 1-minute or 5-minute chart (which I highly recommend).
Important note: When the price briefly exits a zone but doesn’t close outside it, this is not considered a valid exit — we call this a "spike" or wick. For the 70% win rate to apply, the price must close outside the zone.
These zones are the result of years of research, experimental machine learning development, and collaboration with colleagues who have decades of experience in physics. And the best part? I’m offering them completely free.
The real challenge isn’t just following a system with a 70% win rate — it’s whether you can overcome your own psychology and avoid sabotaging your success. If you had a winning strategy, what’s really stopping you from being consistently profitable? Often, the answer is ourselves.
My zones are built on theoretical thermodynamics and mathematical proofs that help predict the likely trajectory of a system, similar to particle movement in physics.
Keep in mind, the orange zone line represents an unpredictable area — while the price often touches the line, there are instances where it may not reach it. Due to the inherent limitations of modern physics, this zone remains an unsolvable area, adding a layer of uncertainty to the system.
I promise, none of the paid indicators, whether it’s LuxAlgo or anything from a Pine Wizard or trading “guru,” can match the accuracy of these zones. But don’t take my word for it — try them for yourself and see the results!
Bearish Euro Futures The Euro is facing downward pressure, as recent economic data out of the Eurozone has shown weaker-than-expected performance. Combined with a stronger U.S. dollar driven by relatively higher interest rates and stronger U.S. economic data, the Euro is struggling to maintain its ground.
Bullish Micro Euro Futures Trade Idea Despite recent headwinds, the currency is finding support as traders digest a mix of economic data and central bank comments. With some stabilization in economic conditions and a slight shift in market sentiment toward riskier assets, I’m anticipating a bullish correction.
Bearish EURO FUTURES With the U.S. dollar gaining strength due to relatively higher interest rates, the Euro is likely to face headwinds. Additionally, mixed economic performance across the Eurozone further weighs on sentiment. I'm looking for continued downside momentum in Euro futures, expecting a retest of recent support levels.
6EZ Intraday ChartI’m targeting a move up into the next resistance zone, with tight risk management to protect against volatility. Stops will be placed just below recent support, and the trade will be reassessed as new data releases unfold.
EURO, EURUSD Bullish Week Ahead**BIG BOYS BIAS (CFTC COT INDEX REPORT)
Commercials: Net Buyers
Retail Traders: Net Sellers
Non-Commercials: In-Trend
This suggests that institutional "Big Money" players were positioning for a Bullish week, while retail traders were net Sellers Relative to previous position. In a zero-sum game, this typically signals a potential Bullish move for this week.
**EURO Value Correlation to USD
>We are now in the Oversold region Signaling for a bullish trend week.
Note: Every time we get Oversold Readings (Green Vertical Lines) we always get a Bullish Move
**Election Year Seasonality forecast
>Bullish until early next Week.
Technicals:
>Price already re-tested the Daily Supply Zone last Friday, preparing for a Bullish Week ahead.
>Price could reach to the opposing Supply Zone that initiated the bearish imbalance.
OTHERS:
>Scalpers can ride the bullish trending week
>Long term traders can position for a Sell for next week.
***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: EURUSD EURUSD is at an OTE level currently, and may find support for higher prices. I am on the lookout for BUY setups, as I do not want to take shorts in this market until prices breaks below 1.0940.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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EURO FUTURES, EURUSD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY OUTLOOK What we have here is the fundamental outlook from the Net-positions of Big Fund Managers.
Fund Managers are normally trend following.
Every time there is a negative or positive divergence between the price chart and the Fund Managers Net positions, Price usually follows next forming the trend.
Fund Managers net positions moves the market because they have big reportable positions to the CFTC.
We are currently approaching a Daily and Weekly Supply zone which could be the cause of price falling down in the next few weeks.
Also, Euro is negatively correlated to DXY, wherein we are currently in the oversold reading.
***As always, trade safe and make sure to do your due diligence when analyzing the charts.***
EUR FUTURES Short Eur is sitting at weekly and daily Supply zones
commercials are selling and retailers are buying at extreme which favors bearish Idea
seasonality is bearish for near future
Good R:R ratio till next demand area
Price is Overvalued against USD Long term and above the mean short term
also price have rollover gap that has been created which could also be filled to the downside
trade safe
EURUSD short still going onExpecting even lower prices for EU for the short term. Obvioulsy, we can have some retracements to Premium zone before continuation to the downside
Euro Short TradeEuro is beginning to show crowded speculators to the long side. Additionally, retail futures traders are significantly long, this approach aims to fade retail traders at market inflection points. Now that the Euro has begun to reverse, a stop loss can be placed at Friday's high.
Short 6E after BreakoutThe CME:6E1! is showing a potential distribution range. I am waiting a confirmation to Sell.
Euro Fx Futures. The key resistanceEuro Fx Futures has recently jumped to 1.10 level, the highest one since mid-January, mid-March, and than since mid-July, 2024.
The main technical graph indicates this level can be recognized as a key resistance.
I have no intension to take any of Long / Short positions immediately right here.
Btw in any case of b/through, Euro Fx pair has an opportunity to be delivered even higher, up to 1.1170 - 1.1200 range.
Eurusd short Shorting eur due to fundamentals reason I.e the cot data saying that commercial are shorting using supply and demand to time the trade
Options Blueprint Series: Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro FuturesIntroduction
Euro FX EUR/USD Futures are a key instrument in the futures market, allowing traders to speculate on the future value of the Euro against the US Dollar. Trading Euro FX EUR/USD Futures provides exposure to the currency markets, enabling traders to hedge risk or capitalize on market movements.
Key Contract Specifications:
Contract Size: 125,000€
Tick Size: 0.00005
Tick Value: $6.25
Margin Requirements: Approximately $2,100 (varies by broker and market conditions and changes through time)
These contract specs are crucial for understanding the potential profit and loss scenarios when trading Euro Futures. The tick size and value help determine the smallest price movement and its monetary impact, while the margins indicate the amount of capital required to initiate a position.
Strategy Explanation
The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is an advanced options strategy designed to profit from a bearish market outlook. This strategy involves buying and selling put options with different expiration dates and strike prices, creating a diagonal spread.
Bear Put Diagonal Fly Breakdown:
Buy 1 Put (longer-term expiration): This long put provides downside protection over a longer period, benefiting from a significant decline in the underlying asset.
Sell 1 Put (intermediate-term expiration): This short put helps to offset the cost of the long put, generating premium income and partially financing the trade.
Buy 1 Put (shorter-term expiration): This additional long put offers further downside protection, particularly for a shorter duration, enhancing the overall bearish exposure.
Purpose of the Strategy: The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is structured to take advantage of a declining market with specific price movements over different time frames. The staggered expiration dates allow the trader to benefit from time decay and volatility changes.
Advantages:
Cost Reduction: The premium received from selling the put helps to reduce the overall cost.
Enhanced Bearish Exposure: The additional shorter-term put provides extra exposure.
Flexibility: The strategy can be adjusted or rolled over as market conditions change.
Potential Risks:
Time Decay: If the market does not move as expected, the long puts may lose value due to time decay.
Volatility Risk: Changes in market volatility can impact the value of the options.
Application on Euro Futures
To apply the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy on Euro Futures, careful selection of strike prices and expiration dates is crucial. This strategy involves three options positions with different expirations to optimize the potential profit from a bearish market move.
Selecting Strike Prices and Expiration Dates:
Long Put (longer term): Choose a strike price above the current market price of Euro Futures to benefit from a significant decline.
Short Put (intermediate term): Select a strike price closer to the market price to maximize premium income while reducing the overall cost of the strategy.
Long Put (shorter term): Pick a strike price below the market price to provide additional bearish exposure.
Why This Strategy is Suitable for Euro Futures:
Market Conditions: As seen on the upper chart, the current market outlook for the Euro suggests potential downside due to technical factors, making a bearish strategy appropriate.
Volatility: Euro Futures often experience significant price movements, which can be advantageous for the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy, as it thrives on volatility.
Flexibility: The staggered expiration dates allow for adjustments and management of the trade over time, accommodating changing market conditions.
Futures (underlying using the 6E1! continuous ticker symbol) Entry, Target, and Stop-Loss Prices:
Short Entry: 1.09000
Target: 1.08200
Stop-Loss: 1.09400
Options Trade Setup (using Futures September cycle with 6EU2024 ticker symbol):
The Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures involves a structured approach to setting up the trade. Here’s a step-by-step guide to executing this strategy:
1. Buy 1 Put (Sep-6 expiration):
Strike Price: 1.095
Premium Paid: 0.0102 (or $1,275 per contract)
2. Sell 1 Put (Aug-23 expiration):
Strike Price: 1.09
Premium Received: 0.0061 (or $762.5 per contract)
3. Buy 1 Put (Aug-9 expiration):
Strike Price: 1.085
Premium Paid: 0.0021 (or $262.5 per contract)
Risk Calculation:
Net Cost = ($1,275 + $262.5) - $762.5 = $775
Risk: The initial net cost of the strategy. Risk = $775
Trade and Risk Management
Effective risk management is essential when trading options strategies like the Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures. Effectively managing the Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures is crucial to optimize potential profits and mitigate risks. Here are common guidelines for managing this options strategy:
Using Stop-Loss Orders:
In the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy, setting a stop-loss at 1.0940 ensures that if Euro Futures move against the expected direction, the losses are contained.
Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure:
The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is a defined risk strategy, meaning the maximum loss is known upfront and limited to the initial net cost.
Precise Entries and Exits:
Timing the Market: Entering and exiting trades at the right time is crucial. Using technical analysis tools such as UFO Support or Resistance levels can help identify optimal entry and exit points.
Monitor Time Decay:
Keep a close eye on how the time decay (theta) impacts the value of the options. As the short put approaches expiration, assess whether to roll it to a later date or let it expire.
Volatility Changes:
Changes in market volatility can affect the strategy’s profitability.
Rolling Options:
If the market moves unfavorably, rolling the options to different strike prices or expiration dates can help manage risk and maintain the strategy’s viability.
Regular Check-ins:
Review the position regularly to ensure it aligns with the expected market movement. Adjust if the market conditions change or if the position starts to deviate from the initial plan.
Profit Targets:
Set predefined profit targets and consider taking profits when these targets are reached.
Exit Strategies:
Have a clear exit plan for different scenarios, at least for when the stop-loss or target is hit.
By implementing robust risk management practices, traders can enhance their ability to manage potential losses and improve the overall effectiveness of their trading strategies. Managing the Bear Put Diagonal Fly requires active monitoring and the flexibility to adjust the positions as market conditions evolve. This proactive approach helps in maximizing potential returns while mitigating risks.
Conclusion
The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is an advanced options strategy tailored for a bearish outlook on Euro Futures. By strategically selecting options with different expiration dates and strike prices, this strategy offers a cost-effective way to capitalize on anticipated declines in the Euro while managing risk.
Summary of the Bear Put Diagonal Fly Strategy:
Cost Reduction: The short put helps to offset the cost of the long puts, making the strategy more affordable.
Enhanced Bearish Exposure: The additional long put provides extra downside protection.
Flexibility: The staggered expiration dates allow for adjustments and trade management over time.
Why This Strategy Could Be Beneficial:
The current market conditions suggest potential downside for Euro Futures, making a bearish strategy like the Bear Put Diagonal Fly appropriate.
The defined risk nature of the strategy ensures that maximum potential losses are known upfront.
Effective trade and risk management techniques can further enhance the strategy’s performance and mitigate potential risks.
By understanding the mechanics of the Bear Put Diagonal Fly and applying it to Euro Futures, traders can leverage this advanced options strategy to navigate bearish market conditions with greater confidence and precision.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Selling the euro in the medium termSelling the euro in the medium term
For more information, contact us via number
0717600476
BERECH EURO Selling the euro in the long term
For more information, contact us via number
0717600476
Shorting EUR/USD Amid Market SpeculationsWe are taking a strategic short position on the EUR/USD pair. The major currency pair has experienced strong gains recently, primarily driven by the US Dollar (USD) being under pressure due to firm market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates in September.
Despite this bullish momentum, the EUR/USD pair seems to be approaching a resistance level that could trigger a reversal. This anticipated reversal aligns with our identified Supply area and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. These technical indicators suggest that the pair is poised for a potential downturn.
Additionally, our analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, focusing on non-commercial speculators, supports this outlook. The data indicates a possible shift in market sentiment that could favor a bearish move. Coupled with our seasonal forecast, which also points towards a downturn, the confluence of these factors strengthens our case for shorting the EUR/USD pair.
In summary, the combination of technical resistance, COT data, and seasonal trends presents a compelling case for a short position on the EUR/USD. We are confident that the alignment of these factors provides a robust foundation for our trading strategy, anticipating a reversal from the current levels.
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Eur Usd short grid Net Fx signal 10 july
Grid system for short start last week.
The BE level is 1.081 - TP 1 e 2
