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FCEU1! trade ideas

Options Blueprint Series: Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro FuturesIntroduction Euro FX EUR/USD Futures are a key instrument in the futures market, allowing traders to speculate on the future value of the Euro against the US Dollar. Trading Euro FX EUR/USD Futures provides exposure to the currency markets, enabling traders to hedge risk or capitalize on market movements. Key Contract Specifications: Contract Size: 125,000€ Tick Size: 0.00005 Tick Value: $6.25 Margin Requirements: Approximately $2,100 (varies by broker and market conditions and changes through time) These contract specs are crucial for understanding the potential profit and loss scenarios when trading Euro Futures. The tick size and value help determine the smallest price movement and its monetary impact, while the margins indicate the amount of capital required to initiate a position. Strategy Explanation The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is an advanced options strategy designed to profit from a bearish market outlook. This strategy involves buying and selling put options with different expiration dates and strike prices, creating a diagonal spread. Bear Put Diagonal Fly Breakdown: Buy 1 Put (longer-term expiration): This long put provides downside protection over a longer period, benefiting from a significant decline in the underlying asset. Sell 1 Put (intermediate-term expiration): This short put helps to offset the cost of the long put, generating premium income and partially financing the trade. Buy 1 Put (shorter-term expiration): This additional long put offers further downside protection, particularly for a shorter duration, enhancing the overall bearish exposure. Purpose of the Strategy: The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is structured to take advantage of a declining market with specific price movements over different time frames. The staggered expiration dates allow the trader to benefit from time decay and volatility changes. Advantages: Cost Reduction: The premium received from selling the put helps to reduce the overall cost. Enhanced Bearish Exposure: The additional shorter-term put provides extra exposure. Flexibility: The strategy can be adjusted or rolled over as market conditions change. Potential Risks: Time Decay: If the market does not move as expected, the long puts may lose value due to time decay. Volatility Risk: Changes in market volatility can impact the value of the options. Application on Euro Futures To apply the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy on Euro Futures, careful selection of strike prices and expiration dates is crucial. This strategy involves three options positions with different expirations to optimize the potential profit from a bearish market move. Selecting Strike Prices and Expiration Dates: Long Put (longer term): Choose a strike price above the current market price of Euro Futures to benefit from a significant decline. Short Put (intermediate term): Select a strike price closer to the market price to maximize premium income while reducing the overall cost of the strategy. Long Put (shorter term): Pick a strike price below the market price to provide additional bearish exposure. Why This Strategy is Suitable for Euro Futures: Market Conditions: As seen on the upper chart, the current market outlook for the Euro suggests potential downside due to technical factors, making a bearish strategy appropriate. Volatility: Euro Futures often experience significant price movements, which can be advantageous for the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy, as it thrives on volatility. Flexibility: The staggered expiration dates allow for adjustments and management of the trade over time, accommodating changing market conditions. Futures (underlying using the 6E1! continuous ticker symbol) Entry, Target, and Stop-Loss Prices: Short Entry: 1.09000 Target: 1.08200 Stop-Loss: 1.09400 Options Trade Setup (using Futures September cycle with 6EU2024 ticker symbol): The Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures involves a structured approach to setting up the trade. Here’s a step-by-step guide to executing this strategy: 1. Buy 1 Put (Sep-6 expiration): Strike Price: 1.095 Premium Paid: 0.0102 (or $1,275 per contract) 2. Sell 1 Put (Aug-23 expiration): Strike Price: 1.09 Premium Received: 0.0061 (or $762.5 per contract) 3. Buy 1 Put (Aug-9 expiration): Strike Price: 1.085 Premium Paid: 0.0021 (or $262.5 per contract) Risk Calculation: Net Cost = ($1,275 + $262.5) - $762.5 = $775 Risk: The initial net cost of the strategy. Risk = $775 Trade and Risk Management Effective risk management is essential when trading options strategies like the Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures. Effectively managing the Bear Put Diagonal Fly on Euro Futures is crucial to optimize potential profits and mitigate risks. Here are common guidelines for managing this options strategy: Using Stop-Loss Orders: In the Bear Put Diagonal Fly strategy, setting a stop-loss at 1.0940 ensures that if Euro Futures move against the expected direction, the losses are contained. Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure: The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is a defined risk strategy, meaning the maximum loss is known upfront and limited to the initial net cost. Precise Entries and Exits: Timing the Market: Entering and exiting trades at the right time is crucial. Using technical analysis tools such as UFO Support or Resistance levels can help identify optimal entry and exit points. Monitor Time Decay: Keep a close eye on how the time decay (theta) impacts the value of the options. As the short put approaches expiration, assess whether to roll it to a later date or let it expire. Volatility Changes: Changes in market volatility can affect the strategy’s profitability. Rolling Options: If the market moves unfavorably, rolling the options to different strike prices or expiration dates can help manage risk and maintain the strategy’s viability. Regular Check-ins: Review the position regularly to ensure it aligns with the expected market movement. Adjust if the market conditions change or if the position starts to deviate from the initial plan. Profit Targets: Set predefined profit targets and consider taking profits when these targets are reached. Exit Strategies: Have a clear exit plan for different scenarios, at least for when the stop-loss or target is hit. By implementing robust risk management practices, traders can enhance their ability to manage potential losses and improve the overall effectiveness of their trading strategies. Managing the Bear Put Diagonal Fly requires active monitoring and the flexibility to adjust the positions as market conditions evolve. This proactive approach helps in maximizing potential returns while mitigating risks. Conclusion The Bear Put Diagonal Fly is an advanced options strategy tailored for a bearish outlook on Euro Futures. By strategically selecting options with different expiration dates and strike prices, this strategy offers a cost-effective way to capitalize on anticipated declines in the Euro while managing risk. Summary of the Bear Put Diagonal Fly Strategy: Cost Reduction: The short put helps to offset the cost of the long puts, making the strategy more affordable. Enhanced Bearish Exposure: The additional long put provides extra downside protection. Flexibility: The staggered expiration dates allow for adjustments and trade management over time. Why This Strategy Could Be Beneficial: The current market conditions suggest potential downside for Euro Futures, making a bearish strategy like the Bear Put Diagonal Fly appropriate. The defined risk nature of the strategy ensures that maximum potential losses are known upfront. Effective trade and risk management techniques can further enhance the strategy’s performance and mitigate potential risks. By understanding the mechanics of the Bear Put Diagonal Fly and applying it to Euro Futures, traders can leverage this advanced options strategy to navigate bearish market conditions with greater confidence and precision. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by traddictiv
Shorting EUR/USD Amid Market SpeculationsWe are taking a strategic short position on the EUR/USD pair. The major currency pair has experienced strong gains recently, primarily driven by the US Dollar (USD) being under pressure due to firm market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates in September. Despite this bullish momentum, the EUR/USD pair seems to be approaching a resistance level that could trigger a reversal. This anticipated reversal aligns with our identified Supply area and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. These technical indicators suggest that the pair is poised for a potential downturn. Additionally, our analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, focusing on non-commercial speculators, supports this outlook. The data indicates a possible shift in market sentiment that could favor a bearish move. Coupled with our seasonal forecast, which also points towards a downturn, the confluence of these factors strengthens our case for shorting the EUR/USD pair. In summary, the combination of technical resistance, COT data, and seasonal trends presents a compelling case for a short position on the EUR/USD. We are confident that the alignment of these factors provides a robust foundation for our trading strategy, anticipating a reversal from the current levels. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURO in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6E1!Short
by FOREXN1
5
07/08 - 6E - SellDaily/4H - What is the trend? • Bearish 1H - Is price touching a key fib level (yellow)? (Gold is tricky so look for .382 and .786 levels too) • No - Does 1H supply/demand align with key fib level? • Yes - Is price above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 20 EMA, resisting the 20 EMA, or crossing the 20 EMA? • Yes ○ Is Volume at or above average (MA) at this time? • Yes - Is RSI pointing in trend direction or above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 50 line? • Yes Plus: - Is 1H supply/demand aligned with 4H OB/supply/demand area? • Yes 15M - Is/has price touched 1H zone or fib level? • Yes - Is there RSI convergence/divergence? • Yes - Is price above(bullish)/below(bearish) the 20 EMA, resisting the 20 EMA, or crossing the 20 EMA? • Yes ○ Is Volume at or above average (MA) at this time? • Yes
CME:6E1!Short
by That-Guy-Cozy
Event-Driven Trade Setup for Novel TradersCME: Euro FX ( CME:6E1! ), NYMEX: WTI ( NYMEX:CL1! ) Since I joined the TradingView community two years ago, I have discussed numerous trade ideas based on event-driven strategies. Below is my all-time favorite. Russia and Ukraine together account for 28% of the wheat export market. Their military conflict started in February 2022 threatened global wheat supply, pushing wheat prices up by 75% within weeks. On June 22th 2022, I experimented a Long Straddle Options Strategy on CBOT Wheat Futures in this TradingView commentary • Viewing geopolitical crisis as a market moving event, I categorized its future outcomes as binomial, being “Risk On” or “Risk Off”. • Call options on Wheat futures would gain in value if the conflict escalated, where Put options would profit in a cease-fire scenario. Today, let’s take a look at two event-driven trades I have crafted, followed by a step-by-step guide to set up the hypothetical trade. First case: On May 27th, I posted “Event-Driven Strategy using WTI Weekly Options”. • Using the June 2nd OPEC+ meeting as a market moving event, I considered the outcomes binomial, being “Within Expectation” and “Exceeded Expectation”. • CME Group OPEC Watch Tool indicated a high probability of the OPEC+ maintaining its output quotas. This was the prevailing market expectation. I expected the crude oil market to react calmly if OPEC+ made no changes. To express this view, I experimented simultaneously selling an Out-of-the-Money (OTC) Call and an OTC Put Options on WTI crude oil futures ( NYSE:CL ). The trader would deposit $6,001 margin and collect $460 premium upfront. These weekly options expired in 12 days on June 7th. • OPEC+ made no changes in output level on June 2nd. • During the duration of the options contracts, oil prices never went above our call strike of 82.8 or dipped below our put strike of 72.8. • After market close on June 7th, the clearing house would release the margin back to the trader, as the options he sold expired worthless. • The $460 premium the trader collected upfront became the profit of this trade. Second case: On June 12th, I posted “Euro to Weaken as the ECB Pushes Rate Cuts Forward”. Based on the Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory, the interest rate spread between the US Fed Fund rates and the European Central Bank key rates is considered the main driver for Euro-USD exchange rate. Each Fed meeting and the ECB rate setting meeting will be market moving events, which will influence the relative value of the Euro against the Dollar. In my opinion, the ECB will cut rates more frequently than its US counterparts, leading the Euro depreciation. To express this view, I propose to Short the Euro-FX futures. • On June 12th, the September (6EU4) Euro-FX contract quoted 1.08605. Each contract has a notional value of €125,000. CME requires an initial margin of $2,100. • On June 12th, the Fed decided to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. • On June 16th, 6EU4 is quoted at 1.07465. The 114-pip drop in Euro futures price will translate into a gain of $1,425 (= 114 x $12.5) in the short position. The next ECB Governing Council meeting is on July 18th. The next Fed meeting is on July 31st. CME Group FedWatch Tool shows an 87.6% probability of the Fed keeping interest rate unchanged. If the ECB continues to cut rates, I expect the Euro to fall further. Event-Driven Trade Setup for Novel Traders Firstly, find a major event with a magnitude to move the global market. Examples are Fed and ECB rate-setting meetings, releases of US CPI data and nonfarm payroll reports, OPEC+ meeting, the US-China trade conflict, the COVID pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Secondly, analyze the event impact and define it into binary outcomes. These outcomes must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE). Examples: • The 2022 US Mid-term election: House controlled by Republican or Democrats. • The 2023 Debt ceiling crisis: Resolved or Not Resolve. • Spot Bitcoin ETF: SEC approval or denial. • The trial of the former US president: Guilty or Not Guilty. If there are too many outcomes, it would be difficult to construct a trading strategy. Take the 2024 US presidential election as an example, it has two possible outcomes: Democrat Win or Republican Win. Thirdly, search and identify financial instruments that are most affected by the event. For example, ECB meeting to Euro-USD exchange rate, OPEC+ meeting to WTI crude oil, Fed meeting to US stock market indexes. If market prices did not respond to event outcomes, then this is not the right instrument to use. Finally, set up the trade. • In a scenario where one outcome pushes the prices up and the other outcome drags the prices down, we could consider Long Futures or Call Options to express a bullish view. Similarly, Short Futures or Put Options position would signify a bearish view. • Futures and options come with leverage. They are a capital efficient way to invest. • In a different scenario, one outcome would increase short-term market volatility, but the other outcome will be received by muted reaction. In the latter, if we expect the market to move sideways, we could sell short-dated options to collect premium income. For our discussion in the next week: The first US presidential debate will be held on CNN on June 27th. This is a major event as the candidates’ performance will play a big role into voters’ decisions in November. Now I have a question for my readers: What financial instruments would be impacted the most by the debate? Specifically, what prices would go up for a perceived win by former President Trump, and what would fall if the approval rate rose for President Biden after the debate? Please leave your comments below. Thanks in advance for your support. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
Euro to Weaken as the ECB Pushes Rate Cuts ForwardCME: Euro FX ( CME:6E1! ) On June 6th, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) cut the official Interest Rate on the Deposit Facility by 25 basis points from 4.00% to 3.75%. This was the first ECB key rate reduction in five years, signaling a major shift in monetary policies in the 20-nation Euro Zone. The ECB rate decision was widely anticipated and has already been priced in the financial markets. On June 7th, the Euro-USD exchange rate was unchanged at $1.080 per Euro. The US Dollar Index edged up 0.83 points to settled at 104.94. In my opinion, the ramifications of ECB rate cuts are underappreciated. This significant event marks the policy divergence between the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Their differing rate trajectories could lead to the Euro weakening against the Dollar. How are Exchange Rates determined? In economics, Interest Rate Parity (IRP) states that the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. The formula for IRP is: F0=S0 × ((1+ ic)/(1+ib)) , where: F0 = Forward Rate, S0=Spot Rate; ic = Interest rate in country c; ib = Interest rate in country b In the IRP formula, “b” stands for base currency where "c" is the currency to quote. As Euro-USD exchange rate is expressed as number of Euro per 1 Dollar, i(b) is US interest rate, where i(c) is ECB interest rate. Let’s examine a hypothetical situation where the ECB cuts interest rates three times but the Fed only implements one cut. All rate cuts are in the 25bp increments. Inputs: The ECB cut rates from 4.00% to 3.25% (new ic), and the Fed Funds rate will be lowered to 5.25% (new ib) from 5.50%. Before the cuts, the Euro/USD spot rate was 1.0800 (S0). Output: Plugging the data into the IRP formula, we get a forward rate of 1.0595 (F0), which is computed as 1.800 x (1.0325/1.0525). The IRP suggests that the Euro exchange rate would be lowered by 205 pips, or 1.9%, if the above assumptions hold true, all else being equals. This calculation is remarkedly simple, but nonetheless it describes what drives the value of any currency going up or down. Let’s explain this in plain English: An investor has the option of investing in either U.S. dollar or Euro. The market currently expects the ECB to lower rates more frequently than the Fed would, resulting in the interest rate spread between the dollar and the euro widening in the coming months. As a result, dollar assets would produce a higher return relative to the euro. In the currency market, arbitrageurs will buy up the dollar and dump the euro and attempt to lock in a return generated by the interest rate spread. This would result in the euro depreciating against the dollar. An equilibrium in Euro-USD exchange rate will be reached where holding assets by either currency generates the same return. This is the logic behind the IRP. It is called the Law of One Price. Many factors impact exchange rates. A framework using the IRP is a simplified but very insightful approach to project exchange rate movement over the medium- to long-term. Other factors, including but not limited to inflation, employment, consumer spending and corporate profit, can be viewed as variables influencing the central bank rate decisions. Asides from the mathematical approach, we could consider a country’s currency being reflective of its economic strength. In the early 2000s, the European Union (EU) grew at a faster pace than the US in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). • Between 2000 and 2007, US GDP grew 41.2%, from $10.25 to $14.47 trillion. • Meanwhile, EU GDP nearly doubled, growing 98.8%, from $7.28 to $14.73 trillion. • The EU economy grew from about 2/3 of the US to matching to the same size. • Backed by a strong economy, the Euro gained in value, from 90 cents to over $1.50. However, the trend has been reversed in recent years. • In 2023, US GDP grew to $27.36 trillion, up 167% from 2000, where EU was up 152% to $18.35 trillion. The size of the EU economy is now down to 67% of the US economy. • Since peaking at $1.22 in December 2020, the Euro has been in a multi-year decline, currently trading at around $1.08. More recently, the EU has been hit hard by the global pandemic and geopolitical conflict. Its economy slows and unemployment rises, while inflation becomes sticky. Compared to the Fed, the ECB has more urgency to lower rates and provide relief to the economy of its member nations. When examining the long history of the ECB rate setting behavior, I find its preference in ultra-low rates. In fact, the ECB maintained a negative key rate (-0.5%) for years, before being forced to align with the Fed in a rate-hike journey to fight high inflation. Another observation: The Fed is an independent central bank and has the power to set monetary policy independently. Neither the President nor the Congress could exercise direct influence on the Fed interest rate decisions. The ECB, on the other hand, gets tremendous pressure from political leaders in the 20 governments within the Euro Zone. Rate cuts appeal to both political demand and public sentiment. Therefore, low rates will be a comfort zone for the ECB to fall back into. Unrealistic Market Expectations on the Fed This morning before US market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US consumer price index was unchanged for the month of May, lower than the 0.1% market estimate. On an annualized basis, the US CPI increased 3.3%, which also came in below expectations and represented a slowing from the prior 3.4% pace. Investors cheer for this good news. The three major US stock indexes jumped between 1%-2% in mid-morning. The 10-Year US Treasury Yield slid 140 bps to 4.264%. The Fed will release its June FOMC rate decision at 1:00pm, followed by a speech by the Fed Chair. The market currently expect no rate change in June, but the consensus is moving towards to 2 rate-cuts from 1 rate-cut by the end of the year. While the global markets would react strongly in the short term to any hint the Fed gives out on future rate trajectory today, the dust will settle once investors calm down. I still hold the opinion that the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates with inflation above 3%. The US economy is on solid ground. Cutting rates too soon would jeopardize the hard work of combating the out-of-control inflation in the past two years. Trading with CME Euro-FX Futures A short position in CME Euro-FX futures (6E) is a way to express this bearish view on Euro. The September (6EU4) contract is quoted at 1.08605 on June 12th. Each contract has a notional value of €125,000. CME requires an initial margin of $2,100. For a short futures position, a decline (increase) of 1 pip (0.0001%) in the exchange rate will result in $12.50 in gain (loss) in your account balance. Our earlier example suggests that the Euro-USD spot rate could be lowered to 1.0595, if the ECB pushes rate cuts forward. For illustration purpose, if 6EU4 price drops to 1.0595, the price change will be 265.5 pips (1.08605-1.0595=0.02655). And the gain in the short futures account would be $3,318.75 (= 265.5 x 12.50). Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago