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NASDAQ BANK INDEX ready to reverse ? LONG BANK is tracking bank stocks within the NASDAQ. I cannot find if it is market cap weighted or instead an unweighted composite I wanted to check this out to see if the banking sector might reverse and perhaps have some trade candidates based on relative strength or even rising trading volumes. On the 15 chart, BANK's price is in a descending channel or wedge. It is too early to tell if it is breaking out although it is sandwiched between the SMA10 and SMA20 as so in limbo at least of this time frame. The MACD indicator shows downgoing lines that had crossed one another above the histogram. This appears to be a bearish divergence. The mass index shows no signs of a rise into the threshold and trigger zone as it did on January 31st. Overall, I conclude that the price is still in the channel and not yet an early breakout. I will recheck this at intervals. Once a breakout is confirmed and even retested, I will find some relatively strong bank stocks from which to pick a long trade at a low pivot for a safe high return from the upside shown.

BLong

by AwesomeAvani

Updated

Nasdaq Bank Index: Putting A Bad Hair Day Into Perspective Elon Musk still sees danger ahead for the US economy if the Fed does not contain the regional banking crisis. Financial blog Zero Hedge previously tweeted about the critical role of small and medium-sized banks in the US financial system — a hot topic following the sharp collapse this month of Silicon Valley Bank, a technology startup lender and the first bank to be taken over by regulators since the 2008 financial crisis. Small and medium banks account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending and 60% of residential real estate lending, among other loans, notes Zero Hedge with accompanying charts. “If the Fed does not contain the collapse of regional banks, there will be another Great Depression,” it wrote, referring to the economic crisis that lasted from 1929 to 1939. "This is a serious risk," Musk replied to Zero Hedge. According to the US Department of Labor, in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, approximately 25% of the 12.8 million people in the US labor force were unemployed. This wasn't the first time Musk had intervened on his social media about the collapse of the SVB. Last week, he compared the bank failure to the Wall Street crash of the 1920s that preceded the Great Depression. "There are a lot of similarities this year with 1929," Tesla CEO said in response to a post from Ark Invest' Cathy Wood. Nasdaq Bank Index BSE:BANK includes securities of companies listed on the NASDAQ that are classified under the industry classification benchmark as banks. These include banks that provide a wide range of financial services, including retail banking, loans and money transfers. On February 5, 1971, the underlying NASDAQ Bank Index was 100 points.

by Pandorra

Updated

NASDAQ Bank Weekly Chart NASDAQ Bank's market behavior is currently unfolding within the context of a cyclic wave pattern, specifically in its fourth wave. This cyclic wave pattern is a representation of the bank's price movements over time, and it is comprised of various phases that can be broken down for analysis. Starting from its inception, the bank's journey has been marked by significant trends known as primary waves. The first of these primary waves, primary wave 1, was completed in April 1987. This was a period of notable growth or decline that had a discernible impact on the bank's stock prices. Following this, primary wave 2 occurred in October 1990, representing another distinct phase of movement. Primary wave 3 followed suit, transpiring in April 1998, with its own unique characteristics that influenced the bank's market performance. Subsequently, primary wave 4 emerged in February 2000, accompanied by primary wave 5, which concluded in December 2006. These five primary waves collectively constitute what is referred to as wave I within the larger cyclic wave pattern. This initial cycle, termed cyclic wave I, reached its peak in January 2007, signifying a culmination of upward movement. However, as market dynamics are characterized by both upward and downward trends, a subsequent downward movement, known as cycle wave II, occurred from January 2007 to February 2009. This phase might have been influenced by broader economic factors or specific developments within the banking industry. Continuing the sequence, within the context of cyclic wave III, five new primary waves unfolded, each shaping the bank's trajectory in distinct ways. Following the completion of these primary waves, there was a retracement during primary wave IV, which spanned from an earlier point until May 2023. Retracements often represent periods of consolidation or correction in the market. As of the present moment, the bank's market behavior indicates the initiation of wave V within the cyclic degree. This implies that the bank is entering a new phase of market activity, and its price movements are anticipated to be influenced by a fresh set of factors and trends. In conclusion, the bank's journey within the cyclic wave pattern is a dynamic interplay of upward and downward trends, with each wave representing a distinct phase of market behavior. Understanding these patterns can assist investors and analysts in making informed decisions based on historical trends and anticipated future movements. Disclaimer: The following explanation is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market behaviors are subject to various factors and can be unpredictable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

by imkhushal

Bank sector to break to new lows into aug 25th Worldwide Panic The chart seems to have just finished WAVE 4 . We should now see the panic from 6/23/6/27 turn and a Panic should not see the low till 8/25 plus or minus 2.5 to 3.5 days from this date .

by wavetimer

BANK INDEX AND THE LINE IN THE SAND & WHY We now have reached what I would call the LINE in the SAND for the bank sector . You can see that over the last 20 years this zone . But going back to 1971 when the funny money started it looks like we are about to see how weak the system Is .

by wavetimer

Pullback and a Continuation? Me expecting a pullback and then a continuation, good luck fellas.

by vgoktas

The banks look like they're about to break. We're now exactly one year on from the day we posted a collection of TA setups that implied we were due to see turmoil in the banking sector. Now, a year later, we look set to see the index breaking the 161. And we also have all the narratives catching up to support it. Here's a list of the 2021 forecasts:

BShort

by holeyprofit

NQ BANK - Unicorns of Silly Valley Hmmm... 4100 just couldn't hold... 4104to be exact. Try as they might these Junk Banks are laden with Toxic trash. Chocked full of Nutters. _______________________________________________________ Regulators gave them a pass - heavily easing reporting of these Junk Banks, since data only needed to be provided in a prescribed format exactly ONE Time. Inaccurate data submissions, Security interface protection, and IT instability... common excuses. Operational Risk, yeah kinda high given the current environment. SoFi is another example of Data Agg, gone wildly wrong. Caught in many inappropriate and non-compliant use of their technologies, took its toll. Simply, the beginning of the horror show.

by HK_L61

NQ BANK - Gap to Gap Which one fills first with Financials reporting beginning next week. This Index will act as support for the RTY and ES in the Short Run. It is not providing much but is the broadest base of reference for the ES & RTY. The upper Gap should fill 1st. AO remains in recovery mode for now. ______________________________________________________________________ Repeatedly mentioned this Gap Fill concern for ES RTY Prorp, it's in trade for now. Keep this one handy for the reversal. It's coming.

by HK_L61

by HK_L61

NQ BANK - Seems the ISSUE of Money Markets is...Indeed becoming and issue as the Federal Reserve's Backstop is tettering on the Brink of trading below PAR. We'll need to see Yeilds RISE in order to stem the increasing stresses mounting within the Banking System. Given the ST Louis FED has discontinued it's reporting of: National Rate on Jumbo Deposits (greater or equal to $100,000): Money Market (DISCONTINUED) National Rate on Non-Jumbo Deposits (less than $100,000): Money Market (DISCONTINUED) Rate Cap on Jumbo Deposits (greater or equal to $100,000): Money Market (DISCONTINUED) Rate Cap on Non-Jumbo Deposits (less than $100,000): Money Market (DISCONTINUED) What would could possibly go oh so very wrong.

BShort

by HK_L61

Updated

Financials - NQ Bank Since March 18, 2021 the Financials have diverged from the Equities Complex. This can be observed in the NQ Bank Chart above. It suggests a Financial Storm is brewing. The Bond Complex is 10.2X the size of the Equities Complex by Value. Bonds have been Bid since January along with the US DX, it is interesting to observe the JPY/DX Pair. There is a Divergence between Nominal and Real Rates of Interest - one which in my humble is ominous. It leads me back to the last time Real Rates diverged this significantly - The DX Broke par. In essence, Depositors were momentarily required to pay Banks to hold Deposits. A clear negative ROI for CASH. It is important to remember, Deposits are a Liability. This is the Salient point when Banks are calling in Lines of Credit and reducing Lending (their primary source of Income) - The net effect is to divert Cash to Money Market Funds which increases the "Potential" for CASH to fall below bar @ 100 Basis. On September 16, 2008 - After Lehman's Bankruptcy - Money Market Managers at the Reserve Primary Fund were unable to maintain PAR on the United States Dollar. It was not solely the Reserve Primary Fund. Nearly 80 additional Institution's "Money Market Funds" - which can be swept into Short Term T-Bills (Short Supply then as now) - were at risk of contributing to a cascading event which required then Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin to issue in excess of $2 Trillion in T-Bills to provide the necessary BackStop for the Dollar. Most often, Money Market Funds are used for short term obligations, this is the primary account for businesses to access their deposits as needed for operations. After the Lehman collapse (sacrifice by GSCO courtesy of Hank Paulson) confidence dropped dramatically, a panic ensued. Worried investors quickly moved funds to US Treasuries. This forced Treasury yields to drop below zero. Investors were so panicked that they no longer cared if they received a rate of return on their investment. Instead, they opted for the return of their capital. The rapid collapse in confidence created enormous Risk, much akin as to what we are observing now. Banks were hoarding cash during this period. Lending, then as now had flattened and then began to decline in the months that proceeded this event. Collateral was scrutinized, then as now as can be witnessed via the REPO & Reverse Repurchase Pools. Then, Banks wanted to have the cash on hand in case of mass redemptions, they were holding nearly $200 Billion then. Contrast this with now - Primary Broker Dealer / Money Center Banks - DO NOT DEPOSITS (CASH) - to the contrary, they are behaving in exactly the opposite manner. This event should be of concern, actually it should be of immense concern. * it is important to note the Russel 2000 and S&P 500 have a large Financial Component. Can NQ BANK perform a reversal, it can, this is not a recommendation to Short Financials. It is a very clear warning sign - we are quickly approaching another Lehman Event. I have posted my strategy for profiting from this Event earlier today.

BShort

by HK_L61

NEW UP WAVE FOR BANKS .I myself have now gone net long 90 % ALL BANKS for what lloks to be the start of wave 5 up into late july to mid aug peak

BLong

by wavetimer

BANK STOCKS HAVE TOPPED SELL EVERYTHING IN BANKS WAVE STRUCTURE A ALT COUNT .We have just ended and ABC RALLY

BShort

by wavetimer

BANK BANK

by SmithandElliottWave

Take a look at the Bank sector, in Thailand Bank sector is looking interesting. Is about to retest the double bottom pattern. And I see 412-420 area as a possible target.

BLong

by SamuiTrader

NASDAQ BANK Strong Buy target at least 500 to 700 points

BLong

by Reshad1166

Ready to fall 80%+. Bank stocks going for free fall skydiving?Same pattern playing out from the last time. This time the scale is much larger so the downside is much greater imo.

BShort

by BigPippinSpendingGs

BANK INDEX IS CANARY IN THE COAL MINE TROUBLE AHEAD THE SP is now into my alt targets if it is a wave b it would peak 2844 or 2852 if it is a 5th it will peak 2862 or 2873 look for a drop to 2700 area oil is peaking and trouble in HYG

BShort

by wavetimer

BANKS UPSIDE BIG BULLISH

BLong

by wavetimer

Nasdaq Bank Short Script seems gud to short below 3660 with marked SL and targets.

BShort

by sanjay4848

Updated

Banks Long

BLong

by Childrenofmen

7.24.17 | BANK | Working to breakout and test resistance BANK - Although for some reason today's candle is not yet on the chart you will see that price is bullish today and is struggling to break out of a falling wedge in an attempt to test the range of of a 4 month sideways channel. A close above $3751.34 will confirm the start of the rally back to $3835.21 | The 20 and 50 exponential moving averages are in favor of a bullish trend to the upside although the 20 EMA is moving through price right now which is an indication of consolidation. As soon as price clears the 20 EMA we will have strong sentiment of a test into resistance and this may be the beginning of the breakout of the 4 month sideways channel.

BLong

by TrilogyAnalysis

Updated

11 22

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