Holochain Big Picture! What are the risks and opportunuties?Hi all,
Hope you all are doing well.
Crypto owners have been having big troubles for a very long time. I believe we the most difficult part in crypto has passed already and the chance of having positive positions much higher compared to negative ones in the next 1-3 years of period. There is still a recession on the desk but impact of FED rate increases almost done. If the USM0 (liquidity) starts increasing then we'll see really nice moves. I'm an investor and having an attitude of buying when prices go lower and keep it for the next altcoin bull run which has been constantly happening every 1-2 years (sometimes 3x-5x profit only sometimes 30x-50x profit).
In the big picture, I think most of the altcoins are still in the good prices considering a 1-2 years of period and holo is one of them with only 50% gain since the last bottom. Many AI coins have already done 4-5x. From TA perspective, there is a lot of potential for holo however, the performance of the project itself should also be aligned with the crypto market cycle. I still believe holo will bring an added value in Web3 and will align with the next crypto bull run.
I'm following the channels in the graph. Good point is that holo price got out of the purple channel and now having resistance at yellow channel top. If we break this, I would expect to go to top of the orange channel which would give an immediate sell opportunity (I'm an investor - I do not sell more than 30% at immediate points). If we have already seen the top for short/mid term, then I would expect to have 61.8-78.6% of correction (roughly 0.0016-17) or even even lower till the lower part of the orange channel.
I'm not expecting a massive bull run this year, so reaching to intermediate sell (0.009-0.012) would give a nice opportunity to sell additional 30%.
What I want to explain with the big picture is that if things go very bad, we may see the price around 1/5 or 1/6 of the existing price (this is a really catastrophic scenario). However, if the things go well for Holo and crypto market will go for new ATHs (very probable in 2024-2025), then we may see holo making new ATHs as well and would make profit around 30x-100x from here. So, based on this upper and lower levels, I'm doing my risk and asset management.
Dollar Cost Averaging is the biggest power on our hands. So, every dip is a big chance in my view as long as the project does not disappear which is also a possibility. Right? This is why I'm splitting the risk by having other projects in my portfolio. In my portfolio, I have 50% BTC, 10% ETH and the remaining 40% allocated to 20 other altcoins which consists of layer1, layer2, defi, metaverse, AI, web3 projects. Holo is 4% currently in my portfolio ;)
These are my opinions and obviously not a financial advise. Please do your own research. If you agree or disagree, make comments and let's discuss!
Cheers!
