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Dutch TTF Natural Gas Calendar Month Futures

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TTF1! trade ideas

Video: Beating the models with MeteorologyIt's a bit long, but my first video. I am explaining the upcoming February pattern. How and what to look for in the winter with long range synoptic weather models. I am expecting the upcoming week to be warmer than normal, but do believe that cold returns for an overall colder February. This is going to be influencing storage coming out of the demand season. This I believe will keep NG above the $3 mark until we see what happens with production after the winter draw down and LNG terminals bringing new trains on. More LNG coming online is iffy at best, due to the constant delays in completion. But hopefully with the new Trump administration there will not be any hold up on the FERC permits being issued. The delays are just good old fashion construction delays. I expect a lower open and a drop before the contract rolls over Tuesday. Currently there is a wide margin between the Feb and March contract price that needs to be closed. The Feb contract dropping is one half of the equation, the other is the March contract gaining. So, I am looking to short the Feb contract until it rolls over and enter the lower March to the end of the month. Good old fashion, buy low sell high. This is not investing advice, just what my personal plan is. I continue to expect large 20-30 cent daily moves. So use your charting skills to set you resistance/support zones. I will continue to use the 20D SMA as resistance. It has stayed true for two full contracts. Until I see different in the long range weather, I expect the price to stay above this level. Although, there will be some readjustment after the contract rolls over with a lower drop and a gap down. Good luck! Keep it Burning!!!
NYMEX:NG1!
by jrvpane
2
1/23/25 Pre-report update1/23/29 Mid week update Pattern forcing issues. Due to favorable wind patterns in the high latitudes, high pressure over Alaska, and the return of the seventh elongated Polar vortex, there is a better than average chance there will be a return to the cold and storminess after a relaxation in the bitter cold next week. The snow cover will aid the atmosphere in keeping any moderation in air masses cooler that the models have projected the past few days. This needs to be understood that the relaxation is at a time when the Northern Hemisphere is at its coldest. So, this is a relaxation to a generally normal(cold) period. Not a warm up to well above average. We are in the second week of the coldest part of the North American heating season and even with a relaxation form normal, this will continue to draw normal to above normal amounts of NG from storage. Since mid November, we have had generally 15 days of cold and stormy followed by 15 days of dry and normal to a bit warmer. We are now finishing our second cold and stormy pattern heading into another 15 days of normal to a bit above. The synoptic models are again showing another 15 days of cold returning sometime around the 5th of February to keep the NG burning straight through March. This is important because as opposed to last year, we are not going to see below average draws, with producers overproducing NG and below average LNG production for the next month. Storage is going to be the big impact going into the shoulder season and we are more than likely going to flip to below the 5-year average for storage tomorrow. The current industry projections are now indicating that we will exit the draw season close to 150 BCF below the 5-year average and over 500 BCF below last year. It is estimated that storage will come in at 1700 BCF or the eight lightest storage in the last 30 years. I do believe that pricing does have another possible 15% to the upside, but this will probably be the terminus for the withdrawal season. With a steady adjustment of pricing into the injection season to the $3 range. But unlike last year, I do not see any reason for historic low pricing to return. Producers have done a fantastic job at being disciplined. I am still currently long on the March contract and will probably readjust my position after the report today. I am not planning on holding any position over the weekend. I am going to need to see the models continue verifying a bit more. But I will continue to trade the big daily moves, which I believe we can continue to expect for some time.
NYMEX:NG1!
by jrvpane
1
NATGAS Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4.010 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 3.872 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
The ES January 27th I told one of my students that I would do a video when we were talking Friday night. she was long because she was Trading the move higher on the S&P. so she took a drawdown on her long position because it traded lower from the high on Friday. I made the mistake Italian her that the market was most likely going to go higher because of a two-bar reversal that would indicate the market might retest the high... and that if she were still long she'd be able to get out at a better price. this ended up being very bad advice because the market gaped on the open on Sunday. but this kind of volatility if you don't get stuck on the wrong side of the market gives enormous reward for buyers and sellers if you look for a reversal patterns that favor buyers and sellers if you know how to determine where the buyers and sellers are. my guess is since I don't know everybody.... is that most Traders will not short any Market no matter what. the one thing that I didn't say and I want to say here.... if you're only a one-sided Trader..... you will only take long positions.... you're bias will likely not help you look for a reversals in the market that go higher because your brain is only looking for buyers and your strategy will be that you want to be long and you never want to be short and that kind of strategy can filter out any real thought about what a good trade looks like and you're just not going to do it anyway. even if you don't think like a one-sided Trader even though you only go long I believe your bias is still detrimental to your ability to look for the two major things that create havoc in your Trading... not knowing where the buyers are and where the sellers are even if you don't short. it just for the records it it's much easier to take short trades in the Futures Market than it is to take short trades in the equities Market.
NYMEX:NG1!
by ScottBogatin
Natural Gas Based on historical price patterns and seasonal demand cycles for natural gas, the **best months to buy natural gas stocks** (or ETFs tied to natural gas) have historically been **April–June** and **September–October**, when prices often hit seasonal lows. Here’s a breakdown of why these periods stand out: --- ### **1. April–June: Post-Winter Low** - **Historical Trend**: Natural gas prices typically decline in spring due to reduced heating demand after winter. Storage inventories are often rebuilt during this period, leading to oversupply and lower prices. - **Example**: From 2000–2023, natural gas futures averaged **~15% lower prices in April–June** compared to winter peaks. - **Why Buy Here**: Stocks may be undervalued as markets price in weaker short-term demand. This period offers a potential entry point before summer cooling demand (air conditioning) or hurricane-related supply risks emerge. --- ### **2. September–October: Pre-Winter Dip** - **Historical Trend**: Prices often dip in early fall ("shoulder season") before winter demand kicks in. Traders anticipate storage levels (which peak in November) and may sell ahead of uncertainty. - **Example**: In 13 of the past 20 years, natural gas hit a seasonal low in September or October. - **Why Buy Here**: Investors can position for the winter rally (Nov–Feb), when heating demand spikes and prices historically rise. Stocks may rally in anticipation. --- ### **3. December–February: Use Caution** - **Risk**: While winter sees price spikes due to cold weather, stocks may already reflect these gains by late fall. Buying during winter carries risk of a post-peak correction (e.g., mild winters in 2015–2016 caused prices to crash 40%). --- ### **Key Historical Exceptions** - **Weather Shocks**: Extreme cold (e.g., 2014 Polar Vortex) or hurricanes (e.g., Katrina in 2005) can disrupt seasonal patterns. - **Storage Gluts**: In years with record-high storage (e.g., 2020), prices may stay depressed even in winter. - **Macro Shifts**: The U.S. shale boom (post-2008) and LNG exports (post-2016) have altered traditional seasonality. --- ### **Strategic Takeaways** - **Buy Low, Sell High**: Focus on **April–June** and **September–October** for accumulation. - **Avoid Chasing Winter Rallies**: By December, prices and stock valuations may already reflect winter premiums. - **Pair with Data**: Monitor the EIA’s weekly storage reports (released Thursdays) and weather forecasts. --- ### **Long-Term Considerations** - **Energy Transition Risks**: Renewables and decarbonization policies could suppress long-term demand for natural gas. - **Geopolitics**: Global LNG demand (e.g., Europe replacing Russian gas) may create new volatility. --- ### **Bottom Line** Historically, **April–June and September–October** have been the most favorable months to buy natural gas stocks. However, always validate with current storage data, weather outlooks, and macroeconomic trends. Natural gas is inherently volatile—**diversify** and avoid overexposure to this cyclical sector.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MasiView
Natural Gas at Critical Support - Breakout or Breakdown? Natural Gas Futures (4 HR Timeframe) Analysis Overview: Natural Gas is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel, showing consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price is now testing the lower channel support around 323.8, which could determine the next directional move. Ascending Channel: The price has respected the channel boundaries, with the upper trendline acting as resistance and the lower trendline as support. Currently, the price is hovering near the lower support zone, indicating a possible breakout or A confirmed breakdown below 323 could lead to further downside momentum, targeting the 305 level, which aligns with a significant supply zone. This would represent a potential 7.64% decline from current levels. Supply Zone: Resistance expected around 330-335. Watch for rejection patterns in this zone. Demand Zone: Support exists near 305-310, providing a potential buying opportunity if the price drops to this level. Volume & Moving Average: The price is below the 50-period moving average, indicating bearish momentum. Watch for price interaction with this dynamic resistance. Key Levels: Resistance: 330 (upper channel). Support: 323 (channel support), 305 (key demand zone). Trading Strategy: Bearish Setup: Entry: Below 323 after a confirmed breakdown. Targets: 318 - 313 - 308 Stop Loss: Above 330 Conclusion: Natural Gas is at a critical inflection point. Monitor price action closely for a breakout or breakdown. Use proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀 #NaturalGas #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #MCX #PriceAction
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by Shalvisharma5
NATGAS A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on NATGAS and concluded the following: The market is trading on 3.981 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 3.750 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Weekly update 1/19/25 - 1/25-24Weekly Update 1/29 – 1/25: Two things of importance this week to consider. First and always is the weather and second and always is the supply/demand storage balance. Models have been having some trouble the last four days in holding the Greenland blocking in place. Which is showing up as the arctic cold being displaced and not being injected into the North American mid-continent. The Polar vortex is still predicted to continue elongating though February and early March. Which should keep furnaces burning and gas being consumed. This is a longer term impact on NG pricing, especially with models varying from run to run showing brief run ups in temperature the last few days of January, which happen to coincide with the February contract roll-over. So, I will briefly touch upon the weather set up, but of more importance this week is the Artic cold and frozen precipitation making its way to the Gulf Coast. Which will have a tremendous impact on well head freeze offs and the LNG production facilities. I believe this is going to set up a one-two punch, if you will for the next 7-10 days of trading. Weather impacts. The weekend GFS weather data trended 3 HDDs warmer, while the EC trended 6 HDDs colder. Both maintain a frosty Arctic Blast the several few days, although the EC was numerous HDDs colder than the GFS with a weather system into the Midwest and East Jan 28-30. Both then forecast a much milder US pattern gaining ground over the US the first few days of February, although with the GFS teasing a new frigid blast pushing into the Midwest around Feb 2-4. Sunday night and Monday opening we can expect an emotional reaction on the models turning warmer since Friday mid-day and the MLK trading holiday tomorrow. There was a great deal of profit taking as of Friday EOD, with the price moving almost $1.00 off the lows of the month. I would hope people would be smart enough to take some profits off the table after such a big move! But, for the week there were two 60 cent moves and one 40 cent move for the week, and I see no change in this pattern until we get into the second week of February and the back half of winter starts to verify for storage amounts. The weather this week is going to be down right brutal in the US. The first concern are the well head freeze-offs. Today, 1/19/25, production is down to 101 BCF/d with freeze offs in the Bakken and the Marcellus. We are expecting the late cycle revisions to revise production down further. There is a belief that production might hit the lows seen last year of 90 BCF/d. “We could see 10 Bcf/d or more of lost production due to freeze-offs” during the cold snap, said Huenefeld. These could include “substantial disruptions” not only in the Marcellus Shale, but potentially the Midcontinent, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin, he said. Reduced production, in turn, “could exacerbate the storage draw” for the week ending Jan. 24, which may exceed 300 Bcf, Huenefeld said. That’s right industry followers are now confirming that we can see a 300 BCF withdrawal this week! This would bring storage under the 5-year average for the first time since last winter. The cold is here to stay for the next seven days and that will continue to be a big factor on production and heating demand. As the week wears on and the models battle back and forth, we can expect that daily model runs to keep daily pricing volatile. So be prepared for daily swings 20-30 cents again. Long term I am still in the colder than normal belief. This continued elongation of the Polar Vortex is not predicted to end, we just need the models to get on board. But this I believe will happen in time. Supply/demand storage concerns: Well heads, pipelines and Europe! As discussed above, production is being curtailed, via Mother Nature. Well head freeze offs have been a constant concern in the Bakken area in North Dakota. This has skyrocket pricing all over the US with Henry Hub spot price currently $10.70. Spot pricing in the North East is currently trading over $100.00 BCF. While there is limited contribution to the overall supply structure coming out of the Bakken, it does supply more NG than the GOM and it is a good barometer for infrastructure issues with the production and transportation of NG. As the temperature drops the water in the gas condensate freezes and prevents the gas from flowing, both at the well head and at the compressor stations which move NG in the pipeline. It only need to be a few degrees below freezing to create a giant headache for the production and distribution of NG. Wood Mackenzie also noted that, “A long list of pipelines across the U.S.” have already posted operational flow orders (OFS) and weather alerts, anticipating the shocks of extreme cold temperatures that could linger until Wednesday or Thursday. “The complete list of pipelines that have issued OFOs or OFO warnings is too long to include,” Wood Mackenzie said in a separate update. With all 50 US states predicted to be below freezing and the major production areas to be 5-20 degrees below freezing, we can start to see where and why production would drop for the next 5 days. Take above normal HDD, then add in drop in production, and it is a nice recipe for bullish momentum. LNG terminals have been running at historic levels the last three days. We are waiting for confirmation for the first 16 BCF/d! Which I see happening today or tomorrow. Now the big worry sometime Wednesday morning is if it is too cold to produce LNG at the coast facilities. There is a historic winter storm predicted to lay down frozen precipitation from Houston to Savannah, Ga along the I-10 corridor. Which is the heart of LNG country! If you remember last year, Freeport experienced a severe freeze off which disrupted LNG production and needed repair for over 6 weeks. This was the beginning of the downturn in NG pricing last year to the lows in February-March 24. This season is a bit different in that there is a concern that the US is colder than normal and NG storage is going to be below the 5-year average. But Institutional traders love a reason to sell and take our money. Remember history may not repeat, but it does rhyme! So, the expectation is that LNG production will keep bullish momentum on pricing, but keep a keen eye on facility issues to rug pull the LNG card. This is not investing advice, please trade at your own risk. But I did take positions the end of the day Friday, with the expectation that there will be big disruptions in the production of supply. Which I will hold hopefully until the EIA report. I do expect trading to be a bit light due to the US futures market having abbreviated hours. Which I believe will be a good set up for the news of freeze offs coming in Monday afternoon and night for open on Tuesday. I expect and will be trading the big daily bounces once the market opens in London tomorrow, but will be prepared for the NY market to be closing early. I will be watching LNG facilities for signs of distress with production numbers declining. If I see production of LNG dropping, I will be expecting it to temporarily impact a downward trend on pricing. Lots and lots to be watching out for. Keep it burning boys!
NYMEX:NG1!
by jrvpane
NATGAS Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear friends, NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 3.916 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 4.025 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by AnabelSignals
1
NATURAL GAS Long-term buy on the next pull-back.Natural Gas (NG1!) broke this month above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in two years (last January 2023). Naturally this is a very bullish signal for the long-term and it is more effectively put into context by using our infamous 'Multi-year Cycles', which we introduced on Natural Gas a few years back. As you can see, every time NG broke above the 1W MA200 after a Support Zone rebound since 1990, it pulled back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) before resuming the uptrend for a new High. As a result, we will wait for that right pull-back opportunity to buy and target at least 6.000, which should be achieved by December 2026, which is the Top of the Sine Waves Cycle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYMEX:NG1!
by TradingShot
1
Natural Gas Futures (4H) - ABCD Pattern Analysis and PRZ Levels"In this analysis of Natural Gas Futures (4H timeframe), we identify a bullish ABCD pattern that projects a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) around 394.5-395. Key highlights include: ABCD Pattern: The 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the BC leg aligns with the PRZ. Current Price Action: Natural Gas is trading around 368.6, indicating a strong upward momentum. Key Levels: Resistance at 394.5 (PRZ zone). Support levels marked at 365.2, 364.3, and 361.5. Strategy Insight: Traders may look for potential shorting opportunities at the PRZ (394.5) with confirmations. Alternatively, breakouts above 394.5 could indicate further bullish movement toward 400+ levels. This setup is ideal for monitoring reversal or continuation scenarios. Keep an eye on volume and momentum indicators for better confirmation."
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by maniraja5599
Is there a chance for natural gas prices to reach 5?Is there a chance for natural gas prices to reach 5 during the summer? On Wednesday, U.S. natural gas futures remained steady around $3.95 per MMBtu, near the highest level in two years. Forecasts of colder weather in the coming week have increased demand and could lead to a new daily high. Despite lower warming demand this week and a reduction in gas outages, speculators continued to increase their long positions to the highest level since February 2022. I predict that future storage reports will show significant withdrawals from stocks that will exceed the January 2022 record of more than 200 billion cubic feet of gas. These withdrawals could even eliminate the current storage surplus and bring stocks below the five-year average by the end of January. Before the start of the conflicts in Ukraine, Russia was the main gas supplier for the European Union. However, in response to the attack in the heart of Europe, Russia's market share has been drastically reduced and European nations have become less dependent on Russian gas. Moreover, with the closure of Nord Stream in 2022, most of the gas coming to Europe now travels through the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline. Gas is transported from Russia to Italy via a pipeline that passes through Ukraine and Slovakia, and then splits into branches headed to the Czech Republic and Austria. This section of the pipeline also includes the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod section that reaches Italy. As of January 1, 2025, things have changed. Ukraine decided not to renew its contract with Gazprom and closed the taps to prevent Russian gas from flowing through the country. Ukrainian President Zelensky said, “We will not extend Russian gas transit, we will not allow them to make billions on our backs and the lives of our citizens.” The pipeline closure in Ukraine must be solved with an effective solution. Countries like Slovakia are heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies and must find reliable alternatives. One possible solution would be to transport Russian gas to Azerbaijan and then distribute it to Ukraine and other European countries through this country. Despite the absence of a final agreement, Azerbaijan should be allowed to transport its gas through Ukraine. However, Zelensky opposes this and said, “We are not playing this game. If there is another country that receives Russian gas and then sends it through pipelines to Europe, it would be as if they continue to benefit from this war and transfer money to Russia.” The issue of gas supply and payments to Russia is complex. If a European country decides not to make payments until the war is over, then it could be a solution for both sides. However, it still remains an issue to be explored and resolved. Europe is heavily dependent on gas supplies, and one solution could be increased imports of U.S. gas. This perspective makes me optimistic about rising gas prices in the near future. My study of the futures curve is showing positive signs at the moment, as the curve is in a contango situation. This means that future prices are higher than the current spot price, which is a good sign for the medium term. As we get closer to contract expiration, the differential between the spot and future prices decreases, and the curve will tend to move back toward the spot price. Based on my analysis, I predict that in the third quarter of 2025, during the summer, natural gas prices could average 5. This will be influenced by rising temperatures and low inventories. To maximize the outcome, it is important to choose the right investment instrument. One can invest in stocks of gas producers, in an ETF, or directly in gas futures. If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click on “FOLLOW” at the top. Also, if you would like to learn more about a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help you.
NYMEX:HH1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
The rest of the week of January 13th, 2025 Today's briefing: As expected, the price gapped up at Sunday's opening from panic buying after the weekend model runs turning colder, bullish momentum from Friday, and news of Friday's LNG nominations at all time records. Unfortunately this was not enough to keep the gains versus the bearish news of Monday morning. Troubles at Freeport LNG facility and Sabine pass reminded the market of the continued issues with LNG processing during bouts of cold weather, similar to last years issues. Something to think about if the freeze makes it down to the GOM end of week!!! Freeport continues to be problematic with its processing facilities, and it continues to be used as a good impetus for any profit taking when the time becomes convenient. The nature of Natural Gas trading is such that big swings in price are followed by any bit of news to the bullish or bearish side, so always be on the lookout for any news, what so ever, to move pricing in the opposite direction. Couple this decline in LNG daily exports with forward month backwardation, and a return to normalcy in front month pricing. Which we saw today. This week expect to see large range bound trading (20-30 cents/day) before the EIA report. The report will be the big news maker before the holiday weekend in the US. Expect a bit of profit taking before the week ends, for position closing for the long US weekend. I am hoping that with model runs continuing to see the end of January cold and with the NGI estimated 259BCF for the period ending January 10th, we will see price rebound to the $4.200 level before profit taking begins. If there are any surprises in the outlook for the cold to come and the report disappoints, then we could see pricing fall to lower support levels below the 20 SMA at $3.621 level. We have closed daily below the 20 SMA only two times since the contract rollover from October into November and this continues to be a good support level until it does not! But the hope follows that forecasts show enough frigid air over the United States for surpluses to the five-year average currently at more than 207 Bcf “to be completely wiped out and likely to flip to deficits after the next three EIA reports,” according to the forecasts. “As opposed to cold snaps in recent winters, which have been brief and bookended by mostly warm weather, January is shaping up to be a full month of colder-than-normal weather across key population centers,” Huenefeld said. This will be verified with continued cold model runs and a 250+BCF withdrawal. This will set up the price action back up to the $4.200 level, and possibly beyond. So, talking about beyond. As we look at the synoptic weather models, we look at modeling 3-6 weeks out. Up until late last week, the models were consistently showing the cold retreating back into northern Canada and the continuation of the Polar Vortex to relax to it's more circular pattern with the Northern Hemispheric winter weather season. The equatorial weather pulses, as telegraphed by the MJO, were also showing an injection of mild Pacific air into British Canada and the US Pacific North west. Which is common for a weak La NIna, which we are in. This was being modeled and seen for a warmer period from the end of January into the first 2-3 weeks of February. A general relaxation of the Polar Vortex, and the injection of mild Pacific air, was being accepted as a January thaw, typical of the winter season, and in a weakened La Nina state. Remember that institutional investors, who we are competing against, are looking at the same information. They will begin planning on trading this information 10 days before the event happening. This is common in the energy markets. Trade the news 10 days before the little fish hear anything about it. Then sell the news of rumors that the little fish are talking about. Remember I was discussing the Polar Vortex and the opening of Plaques and Corpus Christi two weeks before there was any news on the wires. We joked about a PoLAr VOrteX, but doesn't seem so funny when it actually happens and pays out two weeks later. Back to the weather. Last week, there were signs of another, 5th and 6th, elongated Polar Vortex, being seen in the long range model. Plus the EPO, a teleconnection that measures the pressure in the eastern Pacific ocean started to turn favorable. This is starting to show high pressure rebuilding over Alaska, which rotates clockwise and pulls air down from northern Canada and the Artic. Couple this with the Polar vortex splitting again in its elongated state. And now we are talking about another bout of cold artic air being injected into the US. Except we are seeing this shift westward over the highly populated centers of the US Midwest, as opposed to the US north east. I have attached some visuals which show the Polar Vortex the negative EPO in the models and an explanation of how they effect the weather. I will continue to monitor and update as they verify true or false. If they do, we can expect the Widow Maker contracts to bring life back to a bull market in NG. Now take that you B1t*H!!! This brings us to the second factor in pricing, storage - injection and withdrawal. The expectation is for the first trillion cubic foot withdrawal for any month. If the warmer weather verifies and the 1 TCF verifies, which is the base case scenario, industry experts estimate that at the end of withdrawal season, the last week in March. That NG storage will be somewhere in the 1700-1800 BCF. Which will be the second lowest in 30 years and 550 BCF versus last winter. This coupled with the fact that Corpus Christi LNG facility is expected to open two more trains before April and Plaques running at full capacity, this could add another 1 BCF/ in demand. But this is all a big if. But something i will be watching out for daily. I am non-committal about anything other than the next 5 days in the NG market. Which I see at higher prices than today. But I have and will be wrong, so do not take this as investment advice. Just where I see the upcoming fundamentals playing out. NG is the most volatile asset/commodity traded. So always expect a pullback on any bit of bad news after the price spikes, or pop up on any bit of good news after the price dumps. Has been and will always be the nature of NG. Again, why real time weather and industry news is so important. My next post will be on what and where to look for the fundamental news to front run these pops and dips. All of the news is behind paywalls. But I speak from experience that every dollar spent pays for itself and then some. In the meantime I will throw you some fish as I hopefully teach you to fish yourself. An educated informed trader/investor makes the market more transparent, predictable and profitable. So here's the new tagline. "Keep it burning boys!"
NYMEX:NGG2025
by jrvpane
3
Nat Gas trading week 1/12-1/17This weekends weather models trended a little warmer versus the model data midday Friday. With a break in the cold to below normal HDDs over the US late this week but trended further colder with an Arctic blast into the US Jan 19-24. The weekend models showed the GFS had been 4-5 HDDs colder until warming up a bit in the latest midday Sunday run to finish less than 1 HDD changed versus Friday’s midday data. The EC, on the other hand, trended 10 HDDs colder, The Euro model now sits a full 17 HHDs colder than the US model for the time period. The important thing to come out of this weekends model data is that enough cold artic air will be in place for the next three EIA reports to print withdrawals of 200BCF/week print three. It has been noted by industry experts that this could possibly be the first TCF withdrawal in a month ever. That is TCF, or Trillion Cubic Feet!!!! Temperatures are expected to moderate later in January, sometime around the 25-26. Demand is expected to normalize after this period. Except the European model is showing a slowing of this. It is going to be watched very carefully if a new frigid organizes over Canada and discharges into the US again. Longer range models are beginning to show this possibility happening. With this being the third discharge of artic air this winter, the atmospheric trend could lay the ground work for future cold air. I will post more on this later, which is my thinking for the second half of winters set up and direction. But for now, production is coming back online in the Permian and Marcellus, after 6 BCF of freeze ins this past week. The big watch on the production side will be next weekend and the possibility of massive freeze in all the way down to south Texas and Louisiana coast. Which could possibly effect the LNG market, but in a bad way. Like last year and the disruption with Freeport and loss of production, before NG dropped down the $2.20. We will need to see production nominations early tomorrow am to verify gas flowing again after the moderation in temps this weekend. Another issue with production is Canadian imports, which are running the highest in record. With historic surpluses in Canadian storage, and 15% of production curtailed over the early December timeframe, the Canadian's have been turning the taps on to historic levels. SO a lot of news before the market opens tomorrow in NY. We have tonight's open, 0Z weather models, gas nominations for production and LNG exports, Canadian imports. All which have been other than normal lately. As for the California fires, the only issue at hand is regional pricing spiking in the Southern California spot market, so no issues expected in production or supply. I expect the market to gap higher at open tonight, if it does not, it is not because of weather or supply/demand balance. I also expect daily swings in the 20-30 cents, centered around model releases. I have been inclined to believe that February will be warm, as statistically in the past 13 years it has been warmer than January. The peak HDD is around January 26-27, depending on being a leap year or not. But I am seeing and hearing otherwise, and I am continuing the research to verify that information. Remember we trade on weather which is 10 days out from the data released. So the direction of the market was determined 10 days ago when this period was verifying in the model runs 10 days ago. So, it is very important to look at the 3-6 week weather patterns, to begin to see where supply/demand fundaments will head. But more on that later.
NYMEX:NGG2025
by jrvpane
3