NG1! just a thoughtI have to admit GAS could continue to dump OR ?. There seems to be a curious possible setup here exactly at the .618 FIB (4.5) .... NOT for the faint hearted.
This is based solely on wave pattern and experience there is absolutely NO fundamental analysis involved, so do your own due dill
QG1! trade ideas
NG1 short. Hey everyone,
Fundamental analysis.
Waiting for market.
Waiting for winter, when customers starts buying nature and price get to the down.
Typical supply and demand.
Very easy trade to me and for everyone.
Bye.
Natural Gas #NG - Target 4.9, 4.5 Natural Gas has been pulling back for last few months. It has hit double bottom today at 5.325 and I would expect some technical bounce of that level. Overall trend for NG is bearish, I expect it to next level major support 4.92 and 4.5 in next few weeks or months.
Dec 28,22-NG-How low will it go?So NG is tanking hard...question of course is how low will it tank?
I will be watching for a bottom and then put in a Buy Order seeing that it's still winter, price 'should' go up some at least, but you never know. We have had stranger winters where price just keeps coming down.
I'm not sure if we are looking at a time where it will drop all the way back to the 2's range - we shall see.
Happy New Year all.
Heiko
F/U on Natural Gas: Expecting a up move next.This is a follow up from the Oct.23rd post (if interested see link below). We did get a good bonce up after that post but pride than dropped back to what appears to be be a support resistance level. We now have a positive reversal in the daily RSI followed by a bullish divergence in the daily RSI. This combination frequently leads to a rise. It correct I would expect the near term price not to close below 4.75 labeled "b".
Notice the recent 5 wave expanding triangle on the daily chart labeled a-b. There is also a 5 wave contracting triangle in the daily chart from September-April labeled a-b and another labeled A-B. Triangles most commonly occur as the B wave of an A-B-C correction or at wave 3 of a 5 wave impulse series. (EWT)
#henryhub #naturalgas Double bottom. Spinning top reversal. BuyHenry Hub Natural Gas
So we have a possible double bottom forming on natural gas. If price fell 8c more on the last low we would have a bullish divergence now. Throw in a spinning top reversal on the 2nd bottom, STO primed for an increase, weak volume and stronger RSI all things point to the sky.
RSI: Relative Strength is 37 on the second low versus 25 on the first. Selling is a lot weaker this time around.
STO: Stochastic has bottomed out and is ready for a jump.
Volume: Has been dropping on this sell off confirming the weakness of this drop.
Target 1: 7.00 (possible 34% return)
Stop Loss: 4.60
Weekly Forecast (December 27 – 30, 2022)Uptrend scenario
An uptrend will start as soon, as the market rises above resistance level 5.500, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 6.300.
Downtrend scenario
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading below resistance level 5.500, which will be followed by reaching support level 3.932.
NG1 It is important to remember that trading in any financial market carries inherent risks, and it is essential to develop a sound trading strategy and properly manage your risk in order to minimize potential losses.
NATGAS Long Update! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
Here is another dimension
To the NG bullish forecast
That I posted last week.
In there we established
That the price is about to retest
The long-term rising support line
From where the rebound is almost
Inevitable. Now, the price has indeed
Almost reached that support and today
We are taking a closer look at the gas chart.
As you can see the rising support is
Confluencing with the horizontal support level
Which reinforces our bullish bias
And we are already seeing a bullish reaction
So I think that we can expect a move higher
And a retest of the local
Horizontal resistance level above
Buy!
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✅NATGAS BUYING OPPORTUNITY|LONG🚀
✅NATGAS is retesting a key support level
So I think that GAS will make a rebound
And go up to retest the supply level above
LONG🚀
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Natural Gas Gas prices fell after the Russian gas price ceiling was set. The same situation was in the oil market. But now we see that the price of oil has gone up. Because the President of Russia refused to sell oil to those countries that supported the embargo. This has led to an artificial shortage in the market. A similar situation awaits the gas market! Because the industry in such a short period will not be able to rebuild its capacities for alternative energy sources. In addition, Russia was the largest gas supplier in Europe. And cutting off supplies will create a shortage anyway. While the US is doing its best to replace Russian gas, it still needs a transition period so that America can provide the necessary volume of raw materials. Especially now the heating season is in full swing and gas consumption has increased significantly.
✅NATGAS LONG FROM SUPPORT🚀
✅NATGAS is approaching a demand level
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bullish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
LONG🚀
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The unknown obvious: when to use log-scaleThere's a semi-wide-spread snake oil "wisdom" in near-quant circles that you need to use log-charts/log-scale/log-transform all the time.
No, you need to use it only when the range of the data been processed exceeds one order of magnitude (data maximum at least 10 times data minimum). Before dat, no-no! Please, don't stabilize the variance unless it'll asks you to.
Now bringing your attention to the important detail -> data 'being processed'. It means that you don't push the log button when your chart's arbitrary time range is 456-986755. You push dat button when the particular domain (part of the chart) you analyze does exceed one order of magnitude.
P.S.: disregard the studies applied, it's all R&D
Could the Markets Crash in January?EU and US futures are recovering after the slide that followed the decision of the central bank of Japan.
Surprisingly, the central bank of Japan has revised the tolerance threshold of the ten-year bond yield to 0%-0.5%.
Some monetary policy adjustments have been talked about in recent days. Still, most economists expected that the most important announcements would come later, closer to the end of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's mandate.
In the press release, the Bank of Japan confirmed interest rates at -0.1% and anticipated a temporary increase in bond purchases for January to 9,000 billion yen a month from 7,300 billion.
What does it mean in practical terms? There is room for a rise in interest rates on Japanese ten-year government bonds. Previously the maximum range was 0.25; now, it is 0.50.
It is the first sign after a long time of a possible end to Japan's ultra-expansionary policies.
Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: As written in previous articles the indices have exhausted their strength and are starting to go down.
The recession, which will lead to a substantial decline in earnings, is not yet discounted by the markets. This means there is plenty of room to descend.
Markets always anticipate a recession three months in advance so that we will see the real market crash in January.
The ideal instrument in these cases is the VIX - the S&P 500 volatility index - that usually scores excellent returns with a global recession at the door.
I will shortly open a buy operation on this instrument with a $35-36 target.
Natural gas: As predicted in previous articles, the crash has arrived. There is a clear difference between the short run and the long run right now. In the long run, the situation is interesting.
Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage as Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, one must be careful to avoid impulsive purchases.
There are big doubts about the reopening of the export plants, which have been offline for some time now and which are creating domestic excess supply, potentially negative for prices along with the seasonality.
Furthermore, the price cap on the TTF, set at 180, even if quite high considering thatfour4 years ago, the TTF was quoted at 20, will certainly put a stop to speculation by lowering prices, exactly what we are seeing now.
This is also indirectly affecting American natural gas as it is very likely that next year American gas will be increasingly the protagonist in Europe with the exit of Russia.
I will evaluate a gas entry only in the 4.50-5 area, prices that I expect between the end of December and the beginning of January.
Crude oil proves very solid despite the collapse of the indices. Two main reasons are behind the excellent performance.
The price cap, although not penalizing Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil, which is very positive.
Chinese oil demand, held back by COVID, will pick up in 2023.
All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as it creates a shortage of oil. I remain positive over the long term with a target of $85-90.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): As written in previous articles, prices were too high already at the beginning of 2022. I'm still pessimistic, the profitability of the group has practically disappeared, and the prospects for 2023 are negative.
According to my model, the stock is worth $70, so it can go further down.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Bad period for the stock is destined to continue. There are problems in China, with lower prices, due to a weakening demand which means lower margins, and competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA) is increasingly threatening.
Also, Elon Musk is increasingly distracted by Twitter. As written early in 2022, according to my model, the stock was worth $170 and was already very expensive at the beginning of the year.
My current positions: I currently have a buy position on the Dax index, which is about to close in profit.
NATGAS Swing Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS is trading along the
Long-term rising trend-line
And the price is about
To retest the support
From where a rebound
And a move up are
To be expected
Buy!
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See other ideas below too!
Dec 20,22-NG-Did anyone else go long?So there was some consolidating around 5.4 so I put a Buy Order in and so far so good. I'll probably get out of it by close on Friday as Monday temps are back to warmer temps so I don't want to get burned by a huge dip when the markets open again on Sun night.
Did anyone else put their Buy order in? Or am I the only crazy one :-)
Heiko
