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JSE Top 40It's Been a Long Time, Glad to be Back! 🚀 Hey TradingView fam! After a long hiatus, I'm excited to dive back into the charts with you all. Today, my focus is on the JSE Top 40. With upcoming elections in South Africa and approximately 130 other countries going to the polls this year, we're bound to see some market volatility. But will this lead to a bear market? In my personal opinion, it's a no. Let's break it down. 📉➡️📈 Weekly Chart Analysis: When looking at the weekly chart, which aligns well with long-term investing, the current market structure is very bullish. We have equal highs sitting at 75,921.75, and the price is currently in a supply level heading into the South African elections. With loadshedding expected to kick back in post-elections, this could fuel Rand hedge stocks in the index. The continued devaluation of the Rand is likely, given the weak economic growth and poor management of state resources. What Does This Mean? My bet is on the USD-denominated bonds hurting balance sheets, and we might see an Eskom bailout announced within the next few years. It’s still unclear how much diesel Eskom is burning to keep the lights on, but this could significantly impact the market. We could see prices hit all-time highs and then retreat to the 67,500 region, which should provide a decent entry with a target set at the 84,650 region. If there's a risk-off event in global markets, let it fall to 57,675 before switching to the daily chart for entries. 📊🔄 Elections Around the World 🌍 Did you know that around 130 countries are having elections this year? From major economies to emerging markets, this will surely add an extra layer of excitement and unpredictability to the trading environment. Buckle up, it's going to be an interesting ride! 🎢 Final Thoughts The blend of political events, economic challenges, and market dynamics makes this an intriguing time for the JSE Top 40. Keep your eyes on the charts, stay informed, and let's navigate these waters together. Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. 📚💡 Happy trading, everyone! Let's make this year a profitable one. 🌟
TVC:SA40Long
by Mike_SnD
The JSE Top40 Paints a Grim Few Weeks AheadThe JSE Top40 powered above 2 key resistance lines but it quickly reversed course, we call this a false breakout (FBO), such failures usually move violently to the lower side. On the weekly perspective, the share is in week 31 so we are likely going lower than the lower pink support. After the pink support fails, we turn can see the green arrow was lower than the black, from historical cycle perspective, the JSE Top40 will set the shortest yearly cycle if current price does not go lower than the green arrow. This is something I place at a smaller probability, hold on for a bumpy ride. Relief will come at the weekly low which will create gains sufficient for long positions.
JSE:J200Short
by runyamhere
STOP asking this dangerous two word questionWhat if? This simple two word question is a psychological trap that traders often encounter. And it does nothing more than undermine their decision-making process and overall trading performance. This question will open a box of doubts, hypotheticals, and second-guessing. This can paralyze action, distort risk assessment, and divert focus from the present to an endless maze of unrealized possibilities. Let’s look into the psychological effects and what you can do to stop it from creeping in. Psychological Impact #1: Doubt and Hesitation Constantly questioning “What if?” introduces doubt into the decision-making process. For traders, you need to make decisions quickly and with confidence. If you have any hesitation when you take a trade, it can lead to missed opportunities or entering positions at less than optimal prices. #2: Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) “What if this stock skyrockets after I sell?” “What if this stock isn’t ideal?” What if this trade hits my stop loss?” This type of questioning can lead to either: ~ Holding positions too long. ~ Not holding positions long enough. ~ Not taking the trade. ~ Or missing great opportunities that come your way. #3: Overtrading Conversely, the fear of missing out can also lead to overtrading. “What if this is the next big opportunity?” Regardless on whether the trade lined up or not. You might be compelled to jump into trades without proper analysis or strategy. This will increase your trades, costs and your exposure to risk. #4: Regret and Rumination Traders who focus on “What if?” scenarios may dwell on past decisions, and this could lead to regret and rumination. This backward-looking perspective can hinder the ability to learn from mistakes and make more informed decisions in the future. So let’s try prevent the WHAT IF? Scenario. Don’t you think? Managing “What If?” in Trading #1: Develop a Trading Plan Make sure you have a clear, well-thought-out trading plan. This will help you to minimise second-guessing. If you have pre-defined entry, exit, and risk management rules in advance, you’ll be able to reduce the temptation to ask “What if?” and instead focus on executing your strategy. #2: Embrace Risk Management When you understand and accept the inherent risks of trading can alleviate the stress of “What if?” questions. Effective risk management will help ensure you to prepare for all types of outcomes. And you’ll handle your losses without deviating from your strategy. #3: Stay Present You need to be in the NOW moment. This way you’ll be able to avoid the trap of hypotheticals. Ask the questions: Has my trading system aligned? What is my daily and weekly bias? #4: Accept Uncertainty Recognise that market conditions are inherently unpredictable as I’ve mentioned many times. The only thing you should have your mind set to are the probabilities and possibilities of trades lining up. No outcomes can be foreseen or controlled. All you can do is follow your strategy accordingly and forget about the prompt “WHAT IF?”. Final words: I think I have covered all the ways you need to stop worrying about the unknown. You need to stop asking “WHAT IF?”. And start saying “NOW DO”. Let’s sum up why we would ask the hypothetical question when we trade: #1: Doubt and Hesitation #2: Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) #3: Overtrading #4: Regret and Rumination Managing “What If?” in Trading #1: Develop a Trading Plan #2: Embrace Risk Management #3: Stay Present #4: Accept Uncertainty
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
STOP Overtrading with these easy stepsDo you ever get caught in the whirlwind of overtrading? You’re taking a ton of trades because you’re bored, to make up for losses, for the sake of trading and to maybe feel productive. It’s like Netflix really. You’re watching your favorite TV series; before you know it, you’ve devoured the whole season in one sitting. Time lost and you get deep withdrawal symptoms. Well, you need to seriously stop overtrading. It’s one of the BAD habits that you can find yourself repeating. And over time, it will lead to a ton of losses, a blown account and you looking for the “next” best thing. Let’s get into it. Recognize when you’re overtrading and then simply – STOP! TO put it blunt. Overtrading refers to the excessive buying and selling of financial markets that are often driven by emotional decision-making rather than a strategic approach. This leads to low returns and increased risk. First off, it’s crucial to recognize when you’re overtrading. There are a couple of times when you could find yourself overtrading: Chasing losses This is where you try to recover from a losing streak by getting into more lower probability trades. The gamblers overconfidence The opposite can happen. You might feel invincible and the king of the trading world, after a series of successful trades. And this could get you to take on more trades, without proper analysis. And it could lead to you losing all your wins for the day. Market FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) You might see a NEWS event come out. Your buddy might have taken an enticing trade. Or you just feel there is more profits you believe you can take off the table. And so, you jumping into more trades due to the fear of missing a profit opportunity. Boredom Fever Your trader and time is passing and, you are getting bored. In fact, you’re probably feeling unproductive just seeing on your hands. And so you get into other positions to pass time or for the excitement. And you disregard, your sound market analysis. Attempting to meet unrealistic profit goals Most traders have a maximum loss per day, before they stop trading. The dangerous players try to have a minimum goal of a % win they want to achieve per day. This is dangerous. And this can lead to overtrading and more loss taking. Peer pressure Like I said, you might hear from a buddy who’s taking trades. You might hear from some economist or analyst who’s diving in. And you’ll feel peer pressure if they get you to the point to follow them. You have your own strategy, system and risk management analysis. You don’t need anything else! Got it? Top of Form So what do you do when you feel the sense of overtrading? Here are some ideas. How to stop overtrading with easy steps Take a break It’s like stepping away from a heated argument to cool off. It helps clear your head. Pick your best times and days to trade Not all hours are created equal. Know the market rhythms and dance to the beat that suits you best. Keep to your plan only Your trading plan is your roadmap. If your plan is to follow a mentor – so be it. If your plan is to follow your own strategy – Go for it. If your plan is to intraday trade, day trade, position trade or core trade – Just follow it. Don’t venture off into uncharted territory. Quality over quantity Focus on making a few high-quality trades rather than a bunch of haphazard ones. Think of it as choosing a super healthy meal over a fast-food binge. Engage in other activities Go enjoy other aspects of life. Trading isn’t EVERYTHING. Go for a walk. Play with your dog or cat. Do other business. Distract yourself with hobbies or exercise when you feel the urge to overtrade. You’ll thank yourself for not taking any unnecessary trades. Because you won’t set that dangerous precedent, which can continue at a later stage. Final words: Overtrading is doing exactly that. Taking too many trades without following your sound principles, strategy and analyses. This can lead to taking low probability trades, increasing your losses and destroying your mechanical mindset and trading strategy. Let’s sum up WHAT causes you to over trade. Chasing losses: The gamblers overconfidence: Market FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) Boredom fever Attempting to meet unrealistic profit goals Peer pressure And we covered ways to STOP overtrading by things like: Take a break Pick your best times and days to trade Keep to your plan only Quality over quantity Engage in other activities Now you know what to do to STOP OVERTRADING. Go and don’t do it!
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Price Action Talking PointsPrice Action Talking Points Pre-Market JSE Sa mid & large caps: in the short term, it's getting crowded in here. Considering the technical summary below, it is a rarity seeing zero constituents in both the oversold phase and even more so in the high bearish momentum phase. Conversely, the high bullish momentum phase is populated with a remarkable 18 names and while the index is higher, there is only one share in the overbought category, which may also speak to a potential divergence on the index which is trading higher while fewer shares are in a real overbought range. There's been a significant amount of long side opportunities in recent weeks which I have discussed, however traders would have to be much more selective when looking to participate in the upside. In fact, the lack of oversold conditions may be indicative of the potential for several shares to pullback and re-test their rising short term moving average. There are pockets of opportunity, but I wont be forcing buy/long side ideas. As an active trader, it's just better to maintain discipline and respect the price action/data.
JSE:J200
by techpers
4 Golden Trading Lessons: Your Roadmap to SuccessAre your ready to elevate your trading game? You’ll need these 4 golden tickets to have a chance. You might have two or three of them, but it’s important to make sure so that you’re set for the rest of your trading career. Have a read and let’s refine your trading skills. Lesson 1: Follow a Proven Strategy and Never Deviate Ever heard me say, “A rolling stone gathers no moss”? That’s your trading strategy in a nutshell! The key to success isn’t just having a strategy; it’s about taking every high probability trader, weathering through all environments and sticking to it. Why? Consistency is king. Markets move up (You profit) Markets move sideways (You lose) Markets move down (You profit). So you might as well enjoy the full journey and trading process you’re your one and only strategy. So, stay the course! Lesson 2: Only Risk What You Can Afford to Lose Here’s a tough love moment: Can you afford to lose what you’re risking? Can you take the money – cut it up – throw it to the ground and you’ll be fine? GOOD! Then you know that emotions and emergency life savings is NOT going to make the cut (no pun intended). If you are feeling highly attached to the money, step back. By only risking what you can afford, you keep emotions in check – win or lose. It’s not about fear; it’s about smart, sustainable trading. Remember, it’s a game of patience and discipline. Lesson 3: Adhere to Strict Money Management Rules This is your financial seatbelt. What are your rules? Here are some: Risk MAX 2% per trade Know where to place your stop loss and never move it when you’re losing Halt trading when the drawdown is over 20% down Never expose more than 20% of your overall portfolio Always have a plan to deposit more money to grow more money Lesson 4: Have a ‘Worst-Case-Scenario’ Plan What’s your plan when the market throws a curveball? Having a worst-case scenario plan isn’t pessimism; it’s smart trading. You know you’re going to be in drawdown around 4 months a year. You know there are consecutive losses to come with any trading strategy. You know the market environments are not always to your favour. So you need that umbrella to know when to halt trading. Whether it’s diversifying, hedging, risking less or having a cash reserve, be ready for when the market isn’t your friend. This isn’t about fear; it’s about being prepared. FINAL WORDS: These 4 Golden Trading Lessons are more than tips; they’re the pillars of successful trading. It’s about building a trading practice that’s not just profitable, but sustainable and resilient. Here are your 4 golden trading lessons. Lesson 1: Follow a Proven Strategy and Never Deviate Lesson 2: Only Risk What You Can Afford to Lose Lesson 3: Adhere to Strict Money Management Rules Lesson 4: Have a ‘Worst-Case-Scenario’ Plan
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Buyer/Seller DominanceCandlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
JSE:J200
by techpers
BSD Top & Bottom 15Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
JSE:J200
by techpers
Draining Trading Habits: The Pitfalls to Avoid for Market SuccesYou know that trading is a mental game. And if you play it wrong, it can be very draining on the mind and the soul. Your aim is to make trading effortless and not overstressing. And to do this, you need to avoid making these draining trading habits. That’s what we’ll cover in this piece. Personalise Losses: The Emotional Pitfall Ever felt like the market is out to get you? Go look at any chart and you’ll see there were times where you would have won and would have lost. It’s a common trap. Losses are not personal attacks. And winners are not personal appraisals. They’re part and parcel of the trading game. Remember, the market is as impersonal as it gets. When you personalize losses, you cloud your judgment, making it harder to learn from mistakes. Instead you need to: Shift Your Perspective: View losses as the trading costs of doing business. And if you’re still learning, then you can see losses as tuition fees for your trading education. Keep a Trading Journal: Document your trades and reflect on your overall track record. This way you’ll see both losses and gains as part of the process. Cling to Long-term Trades: The Hope Trap Ah, the classic ‘hold and hope’ strategy. It’s easy to fall in love with a trade. It’s also easy to marry a trade or even an investment. But as a trader, you must NOT get married to a trade. See them as short term conquests where you take one – lose one win one. But know that the next one is on the way. So, how do you break free? Set Clear Exit Strategies: Before your enter a trade, know your exit points for both profit and loss. Practice Detachment: Treat each trade as just another business transaction. Or like I said – Conquest. Always checking your trades: The Anxiety Generator Checking your trades every five minutes? ‘ This can turn into an obsession. I must say. This is not a good for your stress levels and your trading performance. This habit can turn trading into a nerve-wracking obsession. So instead: Set Alerts: Use technology to your advantage. Set alerts for price movements. Schedule Check-ins: Limit how often you check your trades. Discipline is key! Overstress about trades: The Health Hazard Stress is the silent killer in trading. It not only harms your health but also impairs your decision-making abilities. So, how do we keep our cool in the heat of the market? Practice Mindfulness: Meditation and mindfulness can work wonders for stress management. Maybe even self-hypnosis at night to manage your worries, stress and to compartmentalize them. Physical Activity: Regular exercise helps in reducing stress and improving focus. You’ll be surprised what a simple walk, exercise or even punching the old bag can do to calm your mind. The complaint department: Trading’s Emotional Baggage Complaining about trades is like carrying around a bag of emotional bricks. It’s exhausting! It’s heavy on you! And it’s just plain unnecessary. This habit breeds negativity and affects your mindset. Focus on Solutions: Instead of complaining, channel your energy into finding solutions through your track record and money management strategies. Seek Constructive Feedback: Engage with a trading community for support and advice. FINAL WORDS: Your job is to manage stress, worry and to make trading as effortless and as easy as possible. This requires some physical and mental activities. And not just once off. On an ongoing basis… Let’s sum up the draining trading habits so you know what NOT to do. Personalise Losses: The Emotional Pitfall Cling to Long-term Trades: The Hope Trap Always checking your trades: The Anxiety Generator Overstress about trades: The Health Hazard The complaint department: Trading’s Emotional Baggage
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
J200An effective way of assessing opportunity is via the JSE technical summary, which is published daily. In south africa, or on the jse, there is a lack of breadth data which has forced one to use alternative tools to measure breadth. Fortunately, the tools and methodologies have served clients well. Most recently, the market pulled back, which saw 21 shares in a high bearish momentum / approaching oversold phase. Simultaneously, the tactical trading guide highlighted several shares which offered an attractive reward-to-risk on the buy/long side. At the last close, there are zero shares which are in a high bearish momentum / approaching oversold phase. This reflects the massive improvement in breadth as well as the buy/long reward-to-risk which has been reduced as a result of the advance of a significant number of constituents. Today, the likelihood of higher levels remain, however traders need to be alert to the potential for the index to fail to hold it’s prior session highs. This would signal that the shortg term upside momentum is waning. Also note, the technical trend rating for the index is: high bullish momentum / approaching overbought.
JSE:J200
by techpers
BSD Bottom 15Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
JSE:J200
by techpers
BSD Top 15Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
JSE:J200
by techpers
5 Hidden Dangers of Trading with FOMOIn the previous TradingView article we spoke about FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). And why it is really not necessary to deal with. There is always the next trade coming. There is always another opportunity coming your way. There is always time to take the next one. No we are going to unpack the five hidden dangers of trading with FOMO and how to sidestep them like a pro. The Emotional Rollercoaster: Stress & Anxiety Remember when I said. “Trading is not just a financial challenge, but an emotional marathon”? That’s never more true than when FOMO kicks in. When you miss a trade, I know that you could feel stress and anxiety creeping in. You feel like you’ve missed the most important trade of the year. Well guess what, you might have missed one trade – but that’s it. Success is based on 1,000s of trades not just one. So the key is to remember this, so you eradicate the feelings of stress and anxiety next time you miss a trade. The Short-Term Mirage: Losing Sight of Long-Term Goals FOMO pushes you to focus on short-term gains. Yes it’s important to try and spot high probability trades on a daily basis. But, if you miss the trade – just go on and look for another. There is bound to be more ready for you to execute or at least prepare for. And while you’re at it, remember these are lessons to help you to be more punctual and vivid with your trades. Following the Herd: The Danger of Sheep Behaviour Ever heard the saying, “If your friend jumps off a bridge, would you do it too?” That’s FOMO in a nutshell. YOUR job is NOT to take a trade based on what your friend, foe, analyst or stranger tells you to buy or sell. Your job is to either follow your own trading plan and strategy or your mentor’s. Resist the urge to follow the flock and rather, trust your own research, strategy and instincts. You’ll form Bad Habits Each time you give in to FOMO and you take a trade for the sake of it, you’re not just making a bad trade. You’re also cultivating bad habits for the future. And once the bad habit forms, it then cultivates and becomes harder to escape from it. Break the cycle by sticking to your disciplined trading routine. You’re better than that! Ignored analysis When you have that FOMO you want to then take impulse trades. And all your hard work and analyses and discipline is thrown out of the window. It’s like trying to navigate yourself without a map or GPS. And you’re depending on your instincts or your “memory”. It’s a very risky gamble and it could take a LOT longer to find your way. Don’t go against the strategy. Don’t take trades for the sake of it. Don’t have FOMO because you missed one or two trades. Just keep to your strategy and move on. It’s your trading compass for a reason. FINAL WORDS 🚀🌟: Trading with FOMO is like sailing in stormy seas – it’s risky, stressful, and often leads to nowhere good. Let’s go other the 5 danger of trading FOMO Stress & Anxiety: Keep emotions in check and stick to your trading plan. Short-Term Focus: Remember your long-term goals and don’t get distracted by short-lived trends. Sheep Behaviour: Be an independent thinker, not a follower. Bad Habits: Avoid developing harmful trading habits by maintaining discipline. Ignored Analysis: Trust in your research and analysis; they are your best tools for successful trading.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Buyer Seller DominanceTHESE TABLE SHOW WHERE BUYERS/SELLERS HAVE BEEN THE MOST DOMINANT. Candlestick Formations (Buyer/Seller Dominance) form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share name (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.
JSE:J200
by techpers