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SV1! trade ideas

SLV - OTM Puts to Synthetic Call multi leg entryI was long silver for most of 2024, made money both ways through hedged equity (SLV) and various options. I closed by position at $28.50 for a profit, and rode OTM puts to the current 20 day low. I didn't want to buy at the bottom of the channel because of the overhead resistance where silver futures are now testing. I see a trade setup for a sellside liquidity run (stop sell run) back to around the 25% of the 20 day trading range near support where bullish orderblocks are visible at higher timeframes. I plan to enter OTM puts 30-60 days out at a strike around approximately 25% the current 20 day range and cover them by buying the underlying (SLV) when they are ITM. The trade setup has a 3:1 risk/reward, but if I can multi-leg enter into a synthetic call I am likely to have little or no risk on the trade, assuming it sets up as I have outlined.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!
by HundredLotTrader
A case for silver.Silver is currently under significant regulatory constraints, and its prevailing market price does not incentivize the allocation of capital toward ventures focused on increasing its supply. This creates a supply constraint for the asset. Beyond its role as an inflation hedge, a characteristic shared by most commodities, silver possesses unique properties that are particularly valuable for industrial applications. As we stand on the brink of a new wave of industrial expansion, silver's conductivity and reflectivity make it indispensable in various technologies, such as solar panels (where China leads in production), antifreeze formulations, and numerous other applications. Recently, President Putin announced that Russia will include silver in its strategic reserves. Meanwhile, China has been engaging in confidential agreements with miners and refiners to secure prices over extended periods. Due to China's relatively loose regulatory framework, these transactions are not publicly disclosed, and as a result, they are not reflected in silver's market price. This can be said for African, Latin-American, or other Asian countries with loose regulation for these kinds of markets. Silver pricing predominantly occurs on the futures market, which underscores cases where a disconnect arises between market prices and underlying realities, leading to potential distortions in valuation. Case 1: JP Morgan commodities trading desk scandal. " A federal jury in the Northern District of Illinois convicted a former trader at JPMorgan Chase and Credit Suisse today of fraud in connection with a spoofing scheme in the gold and silver futures markets. According to court documents and evidence presented at trial, Christopher Jordan, 51, of Mountainside, New Jersey, was an executive director and trader on JPMorgan’s precious metals desk in New York from 2006 to 2009, and on Credit Suisse’s precious metals desk in New York in 2010. Between 2008 and 2010, Jordan placed thousands of spoof orders, i.e., orders that he intended to cancel before execution, to drive prices in a direction more favorable to orders he intended to execute on the opposite side of the market. Jordan engaged in this deceptive spoofing strategy while trading gold and silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX), which is a commodities exchange operated by the CME Group. These deceptive orders were intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for gold and silver futures contracts into the markets... Four other former JPMorgan precious metals traders were previously convicted in related cases. In August 2022, Gregg Smith and Michael Nowak... spoofing... In October 2018, John Edmonds pleaded guilty in the District of Connecticut... wire fraud, commodities fraud, price manipulation, and spoofing... In August 2019, Christian Trunz pleaded guilty in the Eastern District of New York to one count of conspiracy to engage in spoofing and one count of spoofing... " This is the article if you'd like to read more: www.justice.gov My thoughts; This type of practice is an example of how there always a disconnect with real life and markets. One must also remember how information travels and the infrastructure and systems in place that runs our financial system. I believe JP Morgan's swift settlement shows to me there was not much accountability addressed. Case 2: Silver Thursday, Hunts Brothers, 1970s " Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt — oil company executives, investors and brothers — first began purchasing silver in the early 1970s at a price of less than $2 per ounce. The Hunt brothers’ fervor for silver accelerated dramatically following the death of their father in 1974, a Texas oil tycoon known as H.L. Hunt. His passing released a $5 billion fortune to members of the Hunt family. Fueled by an enormous amount of capital, the Hunt brothers continued stockpiling silver and purchasing silver futures contracts. By early 1979, the price of silver had risen to about $6 per ounce. The Hunt brothers acquired roughly 195 million ounces of silver, about a third of the world’s total supply. They facilitated their silver purchases in part by investing in futures contracts through several brokers, including Bache Halsey Stuart Shields, Prudential-Bache Securities, and Prudential Securities. By December 1979, the market price for silver fluctuated between $20 and $25 per ounce. Silver had become exorbitantly expensive even for practical uses. Doctors struggled to afford X-ray film for patients, families melted down their heirloom silver flatware, silver burglaries skyrocketed, and Tiffany’s & Co. was forced to drastically raise its jewelry prices. Tiffany’s even took out a full-page ad in the New York Times criticizing the Hunt brothers, writing, “We think it is unconscionable for anyone to hoard several billion, yes billion, dollars’ worth of silver and thus drive the price up so high that others must pay artificially high prices for articles made of silver.” Silver reached a record high of $48.70 per ounce on Jan. 18, 1980. By some estimates, the Hunt brothers’ entire silver fortune peaked at a value of $10 billion. Thursday, March 27, 1980 Facing out-of-control silver prices, COMEX (Commodity Exchange, Inc.), a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), acted against the Hunt brothers. On Jan. 7, 1980, COMEX introduced Silver Rule 7, which placed heavy restrictions on the purchase of commodities on the margin. Following its peak price of $48.70 per ounce, silver began its decline and the Hunt family’s silver fortune began to shrink. On March 27, 1980, known as Silver Thursday, the price of silver dropped 50% in a single day, from $21.62 to $10.80 per ounce. The Hunt brothers failed to meet several margin calls and about $7 billion in paper assets suddenly turned into a $1.7 billion debt. The sudden price drop threatened to collapse several investment firms and banks. To prevent widespread financial chaos, multiple banks joined together to issue the Hunt brothers a $1.1 billion line of credit..." The original article: learn.apmex.com My thoughts: Now you see that one entity can have huge influence on the market. Your once dusty silver mirror can become valuable enough for you to go and find it and clean it and sell it. One actionable step you can take today is to capitalize on silver's current low valuation. There's clearly a lag between what's happening in the physical market and how that information gets reflected in exchange prices. Interestingly, we've seen noticeable price increases and premiums when buying physical silver, but there hasn’t been much movement in the more liquid instruments like the GLD or SLV ETFs—which, by the way, JPM vaults silver for. This disconnect exists because the market takes time to catch up to reality. What’s your take on this? More articles: marketsanity.com www.justice.gov www.reuters.com www.investing.com seekingalpha.com investingnews.com metalsedge.com www.moneymetals.com
COMEX:SI1!Long
by SRNceo
Silver Futures Chart Fibonacci Analysis 010425Trading idea - Entry point > 29.2/61.80% Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 29.2/61.80% Chart time frame: D A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: C A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% Resistance C) 61.80% Support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
COMEX:SI1!
by fibonacci6180
POV: Silver - At the Crossroads of Bullish and BearishPOV: Silver - At the Crossroads of Bullish and Bearish Silver is currently at a conjunction level where both bullish and bearish signs are present. However, stronger signals lean bearish, and my view aligns with that. Key Observations: 1️⃣ Complex Head and Shoulders Pattern: A Head and Shoulders pattern is forming inside the shoulder of another larger Head and Shoulders pattern. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels: The base of both Head and Shoulders patterns aligns with Fibonacci levels of 0.5–0.618. 3️⃣ Target Alignment: Targets for both patterns converge at the same level, adding weight to the bearish outlook. 4️⃣ Shoulder Target: The target for the smaller shoulder aligns with Fib levels of 0.764–0.786. 5️⃣ Weekly Divergence: The higher head and previous swing in the weekly timeframe show divergence. 6️⃣ RSI (14): SMA(RSI (14),20) falling below 50, signalling weakening momentum. 7️⃣ 200 SMA Breach: Yesterday’s close fell below the 200 SMA, a critical bearish indicator. Disclaimer: For educational purposes only, not financial advice.
MCX:SILVER1!Short
by kzatakia
Silver bells have a morbid tone compared to gold target to R24.1Unlike Gold which is still holding its stature in the Symmetrical Triangle. Silver has broken below not only it's Uptrend but also below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders. Now commodities don't stay down for too long normally, so I wouldn't be surprised if this market rockets up due to some "catalyst" in the new year. But until then, the price and nature is bearish and will set a target of around $24.15. The price does however need to close below the 200MA to make it a higher probability idea.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Timonrosso