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Why Non-farm Payrolls Matter to TradersThe Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is often followed closely by sophisticated traders, but new traders often seem to overlook it. In today’s TradingView educational post, we’ll explain what NFPs are and why they matter. The NFP report is a crucial monthly indicator that shows the net number of jobs added in the U.S. during the previous month, excluding those in farming, private households, and non-profit organizations. This report gives a clear-cut view of private sector jobs and how they’re growing or shrinking. Traders can often use this data to forecast Federal Reserve actions, such as adjusting interest rates. Why does the Federal Reserve care about NFP reports? And by extension, why should traders care? The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has a dual mandate: to support maximum employment and ensure price stability in the U.S. economy. Consequently, the Fed reviews NFP reports when making decisions about interest rate policies. Strong employment data might prompt the Fed to raise interest rates, while weak data could lead to rate cuts. The question now becomes: how do forex traders deal with NFP reports? It’s crucial to note that an NFP release can often lead to increased volatility in USD markets, making trading in that window riskier than usual. Experienced forex traders with open positions are generally prepared for the heightened volatility that NFP releases can bring. This volatility typically comes with larger spreads, volume increases, and potential liquidations or margin calls due to sudden market moves. Because of this, some traders opt to close all open positions before an NFP release, re-entering the market afterward. Others may choose to avoid trading during these periods altogether. The first market reaction can be unpredictable, with computer programs, scalpers, and high frequency trading often dominating the initial action the second the report is released. So, let’s review everything we’ve discussed here: the NFP report gives insights into the private sector economy, specifically looking at how many jobs were added in the US the previous month. The Fed looks to the NFP report to understand the current labor market, and traders watch the NFP report for reasons such as: 1. US Dollar strength or weakness 2. Insights into what the Fed might do next 3. Volatility, spread, and volume spikes 4. Risk management 5. Preparing a game plan for before and after the report Thanks for reading our latest educational post about becoming a swing trader! Be sure to follow us for more updates and educational resources like this.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: 16 - 20 SeptemberWeekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: S&P 500, Fed Cuts Interest Rates, US Dollar, S&P/ASX 200 Index Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights. - S&P 500 Sets Record Ahead of Fed Decision - Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 0.5% - Dollar Trades Mixed after Fed Rate Cut - Australian S&P/ASX 200 Index Hits All-Time High Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen. Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions. 🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
DreamAnalysis | S&P 500 Entering a Crucial Phase , Stay Ahead!✨ Today’s Focus: S&P 500 Analysis : We're diving into one of the key assets in the stock and indices market: the S&P 500. Let's explore what potential movements we can anticipate for the upcoming week. 📊 Current Market Overview : The S&P 500 has just swept a major buy-side liquidity level, specifically the All-Time High (ATH). This could signal a move towards lower prices, indicating a potential retracement or even a reversal. Additionally, there’s a clear divergence in market structure (SMT) between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (US100): while the S&P 500 has taken out its ATH, the Nasdaq has made a lower low. This divergence reinforces the possibility of a downward move. 🕓 Identifying Key Levels : Here are some critical zones currently present in the market: - PML : Previous Month Low - BSL : Buy-Side Liquidity (ATH) - SSL (EQL) : Sell-Side Liquidity, a key target for price movements - 4H FVG : 4-Hour Fair Value Gap, a potential retracement zone indicating an area of imbalance - SMT : Smart Money Technique, signaling further confluence for a move lower - BPR : Balanced Price Range, another zone of imbalance to watch for potential corrections These levels are significant as they represent areas where the price typically seeks liquidity, facilitating its movement toward the next target. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) also highlights areas where the market might seek to rebalance, providing further clues for future price action. 📈 Bullish Scenario : For any potential long positions, we should look to lower timeframes for a sweep of Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) or a tap into a key Fair Value Gap. Once this occurs, targeting a Buy-Side Liquidity level could present a buying opportunity. However, keep in mind that this strategy is riskier, as the higher timeframe outlook appears bearish. 📉 Bearish Scenario : Currently, the market offers opportunities to look for lower timeframe entry models to establish short positions. These trades would target Sell-Side Liquidity levels. Monitoring the Nasdaq for correlation is also crucial, as we want the two indices to align before executing any trades. ⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by DreamAnalysis
S&P and Federal Funds Rate: A Recipe for RecessionAs I sift through the current economic landscape, I am dabbling with the relationship between the S&P and the Federal funds rate, engaging in a deeper analysis to decipher macro patterns that seem to be steering us into an unavoidable situation: a recession. Spotting Macro Patterns In my endeavor to find significant macro patterns, I have been keenly observing the movements and trends surrounding the S&P and Federal funds rate. Given the recent financial developments and the current market dynamics, it appears that we are heading toward a period characterized by economic downturns. Recession: A Certainty, Not a Possibility Given the data at hand and the prevailing market conditions, I am led to believe that a recession is not just a probability but a certainty, a full 100% guaranteed. The intertwining movements of the S&P and the Federal funds rate are signaling a storm on the horizon. What Next? While this paints a grim picture, it is also a call to arms for every trader to tread carefully and to fortify their portfolios against the impending downturn. It might be a wise strategy to start looking at recession-proof investments and strategies to weather the storm. Conclusion As we navigate these tumultuous waters, let's keep a keen eye on the macro patterns and stay one step ahead to safeguard our investments. Remember, it's always better to be safe than sorry. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts and insights on this critical matter. Disclaimer: This post is based on personal observations and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
SP:SPXShort
by CyberNetGain
Quadruple Witching: What Retail Traders Should Know█ Quadruple Witching is Happening Today: What Retail Traders Should Know! Today marks Quadruple Witching, a pivotal event in the financial markets that occurs four times a year—on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. During Quadruple Witching, four types of derivative contracts expire simultaneously: Stock Index Futures Stock Index Options Single Stock Futures Single Stock Options When all four of these contracts expire simultaneously, it can lead to increased trading volume and heightened volatility in the markets. The term "witching" is derived from the "Triple Witching" event, which involves the simultaneous expiration of three types of contracts (stock index futures, stock index options, and single stock options). Quadruple Witching adds the expiration of single stock futures to this mix. This convergence leads to a surge in trading activity and heightened market volatility as traders and investors adjust or close their positions. █ When Does Quadruple Witching Occur? Quadruple Witching takes place on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December each year. These dates align with the end of each fiscal quarter, making them significant for various market participants. █ What Retail Traders Should Be Aware Of ⚪ Increased Volatility Price Swings: Expect more significant and rapid price movements in both individual stocks and broader market indices. Unpredictable Trends: Sudden shifts can occur, making it challenging to anticipate market direction. ⚪ Higher Trading Volume Liquidity Peaks : Trading volumes can spike by 30-40%, enhancing liquidity but also increasing competition for trade execution. Potential for Slippage: High volumes may lead to slower order executions and potential slippage, where trades are executed at different prices than intended. ⚪ Potential for Market Manipulation Large Institutional Trades: Institutions managing vast derivative positions can influence stock prices, creating opportunities and risks. Short-Term Opportunities: Retail traders might find short-term trading opportunities but should exercise caution. ⚪ Emotional Discipline Stress Management: The fast-paced and volatile environment can be emotionally taxing. Maintain a clear trading plan to avoid impulsive decisions. Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders and position sizing to protect against unexpected market moves. █ Historical Perspective and Market Behavior Historically, Quadruple Witching days have been associated with noticeable market movements. ⚪ Price Trends Some studies suggest that markets may trend in the direction of the prevailing market sentiment leading into the expiration day. ⚪ Volatility Patterns Volatility tends to spike during Quadruple Witching, especially in the final hour of trading, as traders finalize their positions. ⚪ Volume Spikes Trading volumes can increase by 30-40% compared to regular trading days, reflecting the high level of activity as contracts expire. █ Tips for Navigating Quadruple Witching ⚪ Avoid Trading Some traders prefer to stay out of the market to avoid unpredictable price movements and potential losses. ⚪ Stay Informed Market News: Keep abreast of financial news and updates that may influence market sentiment. Contract Expirations: Be aware of which contracts are expiring and their potential impact on specific stocks or indices. ⚪ Focus on Liquidity Trade Liquid Stocks: Opt for highly liquid stocks and ETFs to ensure smoother trade executions and tighter bid-ask spreads. Avoid Thinly Traded Assets: Steer clear of stocks with low trading volumes to minimize execution risks. ⚪ Use Limit Orders Control Entry and Exit Points: Limit orders allow you to set specific prices for buying or selling, helping manage execution prices amidst volatility. ⚪ Monitor Key Levels Support and Resistance: Keep an eye on critical technical levels that may act as barriers or catalysts for price movements. Volume Indicators: Use volume-based indicators to gauge the strength of price movements. ⚪ Maintain Discipline Stick to Your Plan: Adhere to your trading strategy and avoid making decisions based on fear or greed. Manage Risk: Implement strict risk management practices, such as setting stop-loss levels and not overexposing your portfolio. █ Key Takeaways ⚪ Frequency: Occurs four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. ⚪ Impact: This leads to increased trading volume and volatility due to the expiration of four types of derivative contracts. ⚪ Strategies: Traders may choose to avoid trading, focus on liquid assets, implement strict risk management, or exploit short-term volatility. ⚪ Risks: These include unpredictable price movements, liquidity issues, execution challenges, and emotional stress. █ Conclusion Quadruple Witching can significantly impact market dynamics, presenting both opportunities and challenges for retail traders. By understanding the mechanics of this event and implementing strategic measures, traders can better navigate the heightened volatility and make informed decisions. Remember to stay disciplined, manage your risks effectively, and focus on liquid assets to optimize your trading performance during Quadruple Witching days. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by Zeiierman
4
S&P 500 Eyes New High Amid Fed Rate CutsAs Fed Rate Cuts Loom, U.S. Economic Health May Determine Market Trajectory The performance of stocks, bonds, and the dollar following the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate-cutting cycle could hinge significantly on the health of the U.S. economy. The Fed is poised to commence a series of rate cuts on Wednesday, having previously raised borrowing costs to their highest levels in nearly two decades. Market expectations, as indicated by LSEG data, point to an approximate 250 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. S&P 500 Technical Analysis: The price is nearing its all-time high (ATH) and shows potential to break through and set a new ATH, driven by the impending rate cuts. The S&P 500 is expected to test the 5675 and 5707 levels. Sustained stability above this zone could propel the index to new highs around 5780 and 5820. Conversely, a downside move could be triggered by stability below 5643, targeting the 5584 level. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5675 Resistance Levels: 5707, 5745, 5780 Support Levels: 5643, 5620, 5585 Trend Outlook: Consolidation: 5643 - 5707 Upward Trend: Above 5675 Downward Trend: Below 5643
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
1
SPX500 Will Go Lower! Short! Take a look at our analysis for SPX500. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,716.20. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,672.36 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:SPX500Short
by SignalProvider
1
FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
11
S&P 500 forecast: Outsized rate cut music to bulls’ ears. S&P 500 forecast: The US stock market has shown impressive resilience following the recent volatility. Investors, thrilled by the Federal Reserve’s outsized rate cut, have pushed index futures higher. However, there are mixed opinions about what lies ahead. For now, it looks the S&P 500 will finish the week at a fresh record high. Fed’s Rate Cut and Its Impact on Markets The Federal Reserve’s decision to deliver a 50-basis point rate cut was largely welcomed by investors. The move was seen as a bold but necessary step to ease economic concerns without sending panic signals reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that the cuts are not part of a long-term strategy but rather a proactive measure aimed at stabilising growth, now that inflation appears to be on the path of returning to its target. Markets initially sold off but quickly rebounded, with S&P 500 futures suggesting a potential new record high is on the horizon at the cash open today. The Dot Plot projection also boosted investor confidence, showing a possible 50 basis points of cuts this year and 100 next year, with the terminal rate expected to hit 3.0% by 2026. But what now? Can the S&P 500 Rally Continue? With the S&P 500 up nearly 19% year-to-date, investors are wondering if the rally can be sustained. On the surface, it appears that market sentiment is bullish, bolstered by the Fed’s actions and a series of robust earnings reports. Yet, looming risks, such as global economic slowdown in the Eurozone and China, may challenge this optimism. Moreover, seasonal trends indicate that September is typically a tough month for equities, adding a potential headwind to the current rally – although so far this hasn’t held investors back. With the US presidential election approaching, market volatility could spike, leaving investors hesitant to dive into new rallies without a clear trend. S&P 500 forecast: Technical Analysis and Key Levels to Watch Despite some volatility after the Fed’s rate cut, the S&P 500’s bullish trend remains intact. Traders should keep an eye on the support range between 5613 and 5670, with the upper end of this range marking the high from July. As long as the index holds above this support area, the short-term path of least resistance will remain upwards, potentially keeping the market on course to head towards 5800 or even the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of 5827, derived from the drop in July. However, a dip below 5613 would signal a shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially pushing the index down to its next support and short-term trendline around the 5480-5500 area. Bearish Risks and Market Sentiment While the bulls are currently in control, bearish traders are watching for signs of a reversal. A drop below recent lows, as suggested above, could signal the end of the short-term bullish bias, reminiscent of the July sell-off when overbought conditions led to a sharp decline. Then, the signal came in the form of a bearish engulfing candle on 17 July. Bearish traders need to wait for a similar confirmation before making any significant moves, given the overall bullish structure of this market. Risk Management in a Volatile Market Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, managing risk is critical in today's market. With heightened uncertainty surrounding the economy and upcoming elections, volatility is expected to remain high. Traders should stay nimble and be prepared for sudden shifts in the market’s direction. In conclusion, while the S&P 500 forecast remains cautiously optimistic, several factors could derail the current rally. Staying informed and agile will be essential for navigating the coming weeks. We will, of course, highlight any major shifts in the trends, if observed. Stay tuned. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
ULong
by WHSelfInvest
S&P500 H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 5,732.82, which is a swing-high resistance that lines up with the 127.20% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 5,672.36, a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 5,800.93, which is above 61.8% Fibo projection High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
RATE CUTS AND AI WILL MAKE YOU RICHER AND RICHER EVERY DAY:)Here is what I believe will happen. It is very simple. No need to overthink it or overanalyze it with complex indicators. The Fed does not cut rates because the economy is projected to be good. They are cut to save the economy from recession. Its like getting a tan. You never know if your skin got burnt until the next day. And the economy is already burnt... In the next weeks and months, the skin will be flaking off:)
SP:SPX
by I_AM_FROM_THE_FUTURE
2
Forecasting the S&P 500Forecasting the S&P 500: A Complex Task Forecasting the S&P 500, a major stock market index, is a complex endeavor due to the multitude of factors influencing its movement. These include economic indicators, corporate earnings, interest rates, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Key Factors to Consider: Economic Indicators: GDP Growth: A strong economy generally supports stock market growth. Inflation: High inflation can negatively impact corporate profits and stock prices. Unemployment Rate: A low unemployment rate indicates a strong labor market, which can boost economic growth and stock prices. Corporate Earnings: Profit Growth: Strong corporate earnings can drive stock prices higher. Earnings Expectations: Market expectations for corporate earnings play a significant role in stock price movements. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including interest rate changes, can impact stock valuations. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity and increase the attractiveness of equities. Geopolitical Events: Global Events: Political instability, trade disputes, or natural disasters can affect market sentiment and stock prices. Market Sentiment: Investor Confidence: Positive investor sentiment can drive stock prices upward, while negative sentiment can lead to declines. Forecasting Methods: Fundamental Analysis: This method involves analyzing economic indicators, corporate earnings, and other factors to assess the underlying value of stocks. Technical Analysis: This approach uses historical price data and charts to identify patterns and trends that may predict future price movements. Quantitative Analysis: This method employs statistical models and algorithms to analyze large datasets and identify correlations between variables that may influence stock prices. It's important to note that no forecasting method is foolproof. Stock markets are highly volatile, and unexpected events can significantly impact prices. A combination of fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis can provide a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. Would you like to explore any of these factors or methods in more detail? I can also provide information on specific forecasting tools or resources.
SP:SPX
by ITManager_US
S&P 500 to print final move to 6500It goes without saying, this bull market has been the most hated I’ve ever known. Retail traders attempts to go “short” on every leg up resulted in quick squeezes. Every 1% to 4% correction brought renewed calls for the end of all things. Including time I believe. There is a reason why 90% of market participants fail in trading. Emotions. The last four long ideas published by Without Worries are linked below. Read the comments in each to get an impression of the distain retail traders have for this bull market. The Cup and Handle idea for example, published on November 9th 2023. Many reading the idea were understandably skeptic. I tell you that to tell you this... The idea was much more than a chart pattern. The idea included studies from Dollar index and more importantly market sentiment. So lets focus on those two in a little more detail. ** Market sentiment ** The market sentiment in November last was incredibly bearish. The Put/Call ratio was sky rocketing, in other words retail traders were all “short” on the market. That was a mistake. Guess what? They're doing it again. Weekly Put/Call ratio If you follow my practices you’ll know one of our golden rules, we never never long into active resistance. Just don’t. Don’t even think about it. On the above weekly Put/Call chart we can see retail traders are betting heavily with both feet for a market correction as the Put/Call ratio shows a strong demand for “Short” contracts. We can see RSI is actively rallying into resistance. Oh dear… ** The dollar index ** The dollar has entered a bull market. Or so it appears. On the 2-day chart below price action has printed a Life Cross with the index trading above the 2-day/200 sma. However on closer inspection just as in late 2022 and indeed late 2023, both price action and RSI support have failed. This will be a short lived bull market, for now. Support and resistance is the ultimate cheat code. It has been integral to the previous ideas shared. It amazes how many continue to dismiss the importance of practicing this simple concept. Look left. 2-day DXY ** The conclusion ** On the above monthly chart several technical developments have occurred. Together with market sentiment and dollar index structure, the combination provides a powerful message. The red arrows highlight each significant market top over the last 10 years when sentiment was incredibly bullish. The blue arrows record sentiment at extreme bearish levels. Here’s the interesting part, when sentiment was this bearish price action was already at the lower half of the rising channel. There is not an instance when a rise from lower to higher half of the channel with confirmation of support (we’ve confirmed) did not result in a resistance test at the top of the channel. The resistance is now between 6500 and 6700. Is it possible the market collapses like many retail traders are now calling for? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww ** previous S&P 500 ideas ** S&P 500 - Cup and Handle S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong - Part II S&P 500 to 6000
SP:SPXLong
by without_worries
99