It doesn't look good.The indexes have shown a lot of wild swings recently, as the markets react to the economic policies from the federal government and the geopolitical outlook. Tariffs are a tax imposed to imported products and passed along to the end consumer, causing higher prices, so higher inflation. As the president said, it's going to cause "a little disturbance". The market is anticipating a longer pause in the reduction of interest rates, since higher inflation is not a good environment to be dovish.
Higher inflation, pause on interest rates, unemployment rate at 4.0%, and yet to know how it moved in February after the layoffs, foreign countries retaliating with tariffs on products from USA, an unresolved peace agreement in Ukraine and Palestine are ingredients for a Bear Market.
The RSI is already showing a bearish divergence that started in May-July last year. The RSI exited the Overbought area and it's crossing down the midline, which signals a bearish market. The SPX crossed down the 20ma in the Weekly and it made the cross of death (20 ma crossed under 50 ma) in the daily. Yesterday the index settled at 5842, under the 20 weekly ma, and it found support, so we may expect a couple of days with an uptrend rally in what is known as "Back to Normal". The VIX has been stubbornly above the 20 level. Yesterday it closed shy from this level. Unless we see a more relaxed VIX then this level signals we'll have volatility and lower lows in the weeks ahead.
The market never moves in a straight line, on the way down previous resistance levels turn into support. If the divergence is confirmed by a lack of new all time highs (most likely), and if the market won't trade in the range, then brace for impact.
If the economy enters into recession, which looks like it's being done on purpose, the Fed will be "forced" to reduce the interest rates. We'll see if the policies will be softened, or if the government is going in full force, and in that case, I hope it'll be a "controlled" crash landing.
