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SPX500USD trade ideas

US500 LONG US 500 Bullish!! Hey everyone! The US 500 is looking strong right now: • Momentum: We’re in a clear bullish upswing. • Indicators: CMO and CMF have both crossed, confirming money and capital inflows. RSI is above 50 on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. • Breakout: We’ve hit a new high on the 1-hour timeframe and crossed above the 20 SMA—another positive sign. • Daily Bias: We remain above the Ichimoku Cloud, and major SMAs are pointing upward, supporting the larger bullish trend. We’ll be taking a bullish entry soon as this momentum continues. Stay tuned for the exact entry levels!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
S&P 500 IndexThe chart displays the S&P 500 Index from the TradingView platform. It shows candlestick patterns reflecting price movements, a yellow line at the 5,927.89 level that appears to act as a resistance level, and a projection of future movement, suggesting an upward move to the resistance followed by a sharp decline. Technical Analysis and Possible Actions: Resistance Level (5,927.89): This level may serve as an area of increased selling pressure. If the index reaches this point and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bearish candlestick pattern or weakening indicators), it could signal a selling opportunity. Action Plan: Look for confirmation to enter a short position near the resistance. Use technical indicators like RSI or MACD to check for signs of overbought conditions or momentum loss. Potential Downside Targets: Support levels seem to be around 5,904 or lower, depending on the strength of the downward move. Technical Indicators: The lower part of the chart shows indicators that may point to the strength and momentum of the current trend. Ensure they align with the expected move for confirmation.
SP:SPXShort
by tradexict
Understanding Window Dressing: What It Is and Why It Happens█ Understanding Window Dressing: What It Is and Why It Happens At the end of every quarter or year, especially in December, some fund managers engage in a practice called window dressing. While it may sound like a holiday tradition, it’s actually a financial strategy designed to make a portfolio look more attractive to investors. Here's what you need to know: █ What Is Window Dressing? Window dressing happens when fund managers adjust their portfolios right before reporting periods. They sell underperforming stocks and buy high-performing ones to present a cleaner, more successful-looking portfolio in reports to clients or investors. This tactic gives the appearance of strong investment decisions, even if the actual performance over the quarter or year was lackluster. █ Why Do Fund Managers Do It? To Impress Investors: Fund managers want their reports to show a strong portfolio, which can attract new investors and retain current ones. To Boost Confidence: A portfolio filled with "winning" stocks makes it seem like the fund consistently picks the right investments. To Justify Performance: If a fund struggled during the year, window dressing can shift focus away from losses. █ How Does It Work? Selling Losing Stocks: Underperforming stocks are sold off so they don't appear in the end-of-year report. Example: A fund holding a struggling tech stock might sell it in December to avoid questions about its performance. Buying Winning Stocks: Managers may buy stocks that performed well recently, even if they didn’t hold them earlier, to create the illusion of good timing. Example: Adding shares of a high-flying AI company to the portfolio in December to make it seem like they capitalized on the trend. █ Examples in Action ⚪ Market Volatility in December As the 2024 trading year wrapped up, U.S. stock markets experienced notable declines, reflecting a mix of profit-taking, year-end adjustments, and portfolio rebalancing. One key driver of this volatility was window dressing. Fund managers, aiming to improve the appearance of their portfolios, sold off underperforming stocks in bulk before the year-end reporting period. This large-scale activity added pressure to the already vulnerable market, amplifying price movements, particularly in weaker stocks. Example: Imagine a fund holding several tech stocks that underperformed in 2024. By December, the fund may decide to sell these stocks en masse, effectively clearing them from their books. This sudden selling can further depress the stock prices of those underperforming companies, creating a ripple effect across the broader market. Broader Market Impact: The sharp sell-offs from window dressing contribute to increased market fluctuations, which can mislead casual investors into thinking these stocks are worse off than they might be in the long term. ⚪ Tax-Loss Selling In addition to window dressing, another widespread practice that overlaps with it during December is tax-loss selling. This is when fund managers or individual investors sell losing stocks to offset their capital gains for tax purposes. This allows them to reduce their taxable income while simultaneously adjusting their portfolios for the new year. How It Overlaps: A fund manager selling a losing stock for tax purposes might also be engaging in window dressing, as this helps clean up the portfolio's appearance for the year-end report. The dual motivation often drives even more selling pressure on underperforming stocks in December. Example: Suppose a fund owns shares of a biotech company that fell significantly during the year. Selling the shares not only offsets gains elsewhere in the portfolio but also removes the "blemish" of a losing position from the annual report. █ Is Window Dressing Legal? Yes, it’s legal, but it’s often criticized for being misleading. Investors might think the fund's performance was better than it actually was. Regulators like the SEC are taking steps to increase transparency. For example, mutual funds will soon have to report their holdings monthly instead of quarterly, making it harder to hide these tactics. █ How Does It Affect You as an Investor? Short-Term Market Volatility: Window dressing can cause unusual price movements in December as funds adjust their portfolios. Misleading Reports: If you’re investing in mutual funds or ETFs, the end-of-year portfolio may not reflect the manager’s true strategy or the fund’s performance throughout the year. █ Takeaway for Investors Window dressing is a reminder to look beyond year-end reports when evaluating a fund. Focus on long-term performance and consistency rather than just the holdings shown in December. Transparency regulations will help, but it’s always wise to dig deeper. By understanding window dressing, you can make more informed decisions about your investments and avoid being misled by this common, yet questionable, practice. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
SP:SPXEducation
by Zeiierman
The Silent Killer That's Destroying Your Trading AccountLast week, someone dropped me a DM to talk about his "profitable" strategy. He was excited about making $4,894 in a single trade. I asked him about his account size, he proudly told me he turned $1,000 into $4,894 by risking his entire account on one trade. His account got wiped the next week. This story isn't unique. I was like him. I lost over $10,000 in my early trading days, not because my analysis was wrong, but because I had no idea how to manage risk. The Illusion of Control The majority of traders are unaware of this fact. Your analysis may be flawless. You can submit perfect entries. If you don't understand risk management, you might still lose everything. Think about it. How many times have you entered a trade without knowing your maximum loss? Do you increase your position size after a winning streak? Do you averaged down on losing positions? Do you remove your stop loss because you were confident about the trade? I remember my first funded account. I had a $200,000 account with The Funded Trader. My analysis was solid. I had back-tested my strategy extensively. But within two weeks, I had blown the account. Not because my trades were wrong, but because I had no system for managing risk. Why Most Traders Never See The Danger Coming The problem with poor risk management is that it works for a while, until it doesn't. It's similar to not wearing a seatbelt when driving. You feel fine and safe until you crash. Let me show you. Let’s say you start with a $1,000 account. You risk 20% per trade because you want to grow your account faster. The first few trades work out well. Your account grows to $1,500, a nice 50% gain in your account. You think you’re unbeatable. Your strategy is the holy grail. The next day, you lost three trades in a row. Something that happens a lot in trading. Your account is now down 50%. You need to make 100% just to break even. You take greater risks and incur even greater losses as a result of the pressure to profit from the market. This is what happened to me before. I turned $5,000 into $15,000 in two months by taking excessive risks. I felt like I had a hand of midas. Then I lost it all in two days. The Mathematics of Account Destruction Most traders don't understand that the size of your losses matters more than the size of your wins. Let's look at the brutal math: Lose 10% of your account? You need 11% to recover Lose 25%? You need 33% to recover Lose 50%? You need 100% to recover Lose 75%? You need 300% to recover This is why professional traders are obsessed with protecting their capital. They understand that preservation of capital is more important than making profits. I learned this lesson the hard way. In my early days, I would risk 10% of my account per trade. One bad day with three losing trades would put me down 30%. I needed a 43% gain just to get back to break even. It was mathematically impossible to succeed this way. The Hidden Danger of Overconfidence Do you believe that a trader being on a losing streak is the worst thing that could happen to them? No. It's when they are on a winning streak. We tend to become overconfident once we find small success. We start to believe that we're the big fish in the market. This is what happened to one of my mentees. He developed a profitable strategy. His strategy gave him a 60% win rate. He started with proper risk management, risking 1% per trade and was pretty profitable, netting him 8RRs in two weeks. After two weeks of consistent profits, he decided to increase his risk to 5% per trade since he was technically "profitable". Guess what happened next? He hit a normal losing streak. He lost four trades in a row. This normal losing streak turned from a 4% into a 20% drawdown. This causes him to abandon his strategy completely, thinking that his strategy is not profitable at all. The Professional Approach to Risk Here's what I learned about professional traders after blowing multiple accounts and finally becoming consistent. First, processional traders understand that trading is a game of probabilities. No trade is certain. Anything can happen in the market. Even an A+ setup with a 80% win rate will fail sometimes. This is why they never risk too much on any single trade. Second, they focus on risk more than reward. Before placing any trade, they know exactly how much they could lose. They keep their risk below 1% of their account size. The potential profit is what comes naturally to them. Managing risk is what keeps them in the game long term. Have you ever heard of any successful trader saying that they made it because they went all in on a certain trade? Almost all of them made it because of their risk management skills. Third, they understand that position sizing is everything. A great trade with poor position sizing is a bad trade. A normal trade with proper position sizing is a good trade, of course you have to trade according to your system. Building a Risk Management Framework After managing multiple six-figure funded accounts, here's what I've learned about proper risk management. Start with your maximum acceptable loss per trade. Most professional traders risk less than 1% of their account per trade. This means on a $100,000 account, your max loss should be less than $1,000 per trade. Next, calculate your position size. There are many calculators out there to calculate how many lots to trade. Lastly, consider your total exposure. If you have multiple trades open, you might be overtrading. If there is sudden news, all your trades could be stopped out at once. The Reality of Numbers Let me share something personal. When I first started trading a $10,000 account, I thought bigger risks meant bigger rewards. I still remember that feeling of excitement when I risked 10% on a trade and won. Making $1,000 in a single trade felt amazing. But then came a normal week of trading. Three losing trades - something that happens to even the best traders. That week changed everything. Trade 1: -$1,000 (Now at $9,000) Trade 2: -$900 (Down to $8,100) Trade 3: -$810 (Account crashed to $7,290) Just like that, I needed to make a 37% return just to get back to where I started. It felt impossible. The pressure led me to take even bigger risks, trying to recover my losses. You can guess how that ended. Now, let me show you how I trade the same $10,000 account today: Trade 1: -$100 (Now at $9,900) Trade 2: -$99 (Down to $9,801) Trade 3: -$98 (Account at $9,703) Same number of losing trades, completely different outcome. I only need a 3% gain to recover. More importantly, I'm still in the game, mentally strong, and able to trade my strategy without pressure. This isn't just about the numbers. It's about staying emotionally stable enough to execute your strategy properly. When you're down 30% of your account, you don't make rational decisions. But when you're down 3%, you can stick to your trading plan without panic. This simple shift in risk management is what allowed me to finally become consistent and eventually manage six-figure funded accounts. It's not exciting, it's not going to make you rich overnight, but it keeps you in the game long enough to actually become profitable. The Real Secret to Trading Success I'll let you know a secret about trading. It's not ALL about making money. I know you're learning to trade for the money. But money is just a byproduct of you following your system. Real trading is about surviving long enough to let your edge play out. In order to do so, you need to master risk management. I've always treated trading like a business. I will never risk 68% of my company on a single decision. Likewise, I will never risk 68% of my account on a single trade. You have to make calculated risks and manage the downside. Focus on these and profits will follow. Trading should be no different. Every trade should be properly sized so that a loss will not wipe your account. This allows you to stay in the game long enough for your edge to play out. Taking Action: Your First Steps If you're reading this and realizing you've been trading without proper risk management, don't panic. Here's what you need to do: First, reduce your position size immediately. Start risking 0.5% per trade maximum. Yes, this means smaller profits, but it also means you'll survive long enough to actually become profitable. Second, calculate your position sizes before the market opens. Don't leave this to emotion or gut feeling. Know exactly how much you'll trade based on your account size and stop loss distance. Third, track your maximum drawdown. This will show you whether your risk management is actually working or if you need to make adjustments. Remember: The market will always be there tomorrow, but only if you have capital left to trade with.
SP:SPX
by Keeleytwj
SPX500USD (6H/4H): HIGH-RISK DOWNTRENDThe SPX500USD on the 4-hour/6-hour timeframe is exhibiting significant bearish momentum, consistent with a short- to medium-term downtrend. However, longer-term indicators suggest that the index is approaching critical support levels that could provide a platform for a potential rebound. The SPX500USD remains in a short-term downtrend, presenting opportunities for bearish trades near resistance levels. However, long-term indicators suggest that the index is approaching a critical support zone that could provide a platform for a rebound. ***Traders should watch for confirmation of price action and volume at the 5,800–5,860 level before committing to long positions. OSCILLATORS The oscillators highlight a bearish sentiment with increasing selling pressure but suggest that the market is nearing oversold conditions, potentially setting up for a relief bounce. Relative Strength Index (RSI): 38.11 – Neutral, approaching oversold territory. Stochastic %K: 24.77 – Neutral, near oversold conditions. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): -102.47 – Neutral, signaling mild bearish momentum. Momentum (10): -75.92 – Sell, confirming bearish pressure. MACD: -29.63 – Sell, reflecting declining momentum and no imminent reversal signals. Williams Percent Range: -77.32 – Neutral, nearing oversold territory. MOVING AVERAGES Short-term moving averages confirm bearish momentum, while long-term averages signal potential support and a possible reversal point. Short-Term MAs (10, 20, 30, 50): All indicate “Sell” signals, confirming strong bearish momentum in the short to medium term. Long-Term MAs (200 EMA and SMA): Indicate “Buy” signals, reflecting the underlying bullish trend over the longer timeframe. Ichimoku Base Line: Neutral at 5,962.44. Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): 5,959.81 – Sell, reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment. Hull Moving Average (HMA): 5,862.93 – Buy, indicating potential support near current price levels. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS Immediate Resistance: 5,960–6,000 (aligned with short-term moving averages). Major Resistance: 6,100–6,160 (upper pivot zones and psychological barrier). Key Support: 5,860–5,800 (aligned with Hull Moving Average and 200 EMA/SMA). Critical Support: 5,760 and 5,658 (historical pivot lows). PRICE ACTION The index has recently tested its resistance levels near 5,960 but failed to break through, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Strong selling pressure is evident in the price action, with lower highs and lower lows dominating the 4-hour chart. However, significant support is observed around 5,800, where the 200 EMA and SMA converge, offering potential for a bullish rebound if the level holds. BEARISH SETUP (Short Positions) Entry Zone: 5,960–6,000 (resistance levels and short-term MAs). Stop-Loss: Above 6,010 (next major resistance). Target: 5,860–5,800 (first support zone), and extend to 5,760 if bearish momentum persists. BULLISH SETUP (Long Positions) Entry Zone: 5,800–5,860 (key support area, aligned with 200 EMA/SMA). Stop-Loss: Below 5,780 (critical support break). Target: 5,960–6,000 (resistance levels), and extend to 6,100 if the rebound is strong. MARKET SENTIMENT Short-Term: Bearish – Downtrend persists, with strong resistance at 5,960 and 6,000. Medium-Term: Neutral – Oversold conditions may trigger a relief rally. Long-Term: Bullish – The 200 EMA and SMA indicate potential for a long-term uptrend if key support levels hold.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ProfessorCEWard
2025 Stock Buyback CrashI think there's going to be a major stock market crash now. I drew a Schiff Pitchfork connecting the peak and bottom of the 2008 subprime mortgage crash to the peak of Covid-19. Why? I'm looking at the geometry of how the stock market reacts to large systemic human problems. Notice that SPX is now overbought in exactly the same region as the 2000 dot com bubble crash. What is this thing I'm calling the "Stock Buyback Crash"? Well without getting too political, the name of the game in Capitalism in exploitation and grift. You can only pay your employees shit, fire huge percentages of your employees, and buy back your own stock to inflate your stock prices for so long before the game of chicken is up. Corporations haven't been reinvesting their surplus capital into improving their businesses. No, they've been artificially inflating their stock prices to get those sweet executive bonuses. Well, the bubble's about to burst. This whole system is a grift. I can highly recommend reading the book called 'Understanding Capitalism' by Richard Wolff.
SP:SPXShort
by zerocashcool
26
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.2.2024🔮 📅 Thu Jan 2 ⏰ 8:30am Unemployment Claims: 222K (previous: 219K) ⏰ 9:45am Final Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (previous: 48.3) ⏰ 11:00am Crude Oil Inventories 📈GAP ABOVE HPZ: If we gap above here, its going to bait a lot of traders ⛔OPEN WITHIN EEZ: There is slight downside left. A lot of people are still bullish into the new years not good for the longer rally. 📉GAP BELOW HCZ: Will cause a mechanical bounce #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
Technical analysis comparing SPX, RUT, and DJIChart comparing supercycle structures of SPX, RUT, and DJT. Supercycle starts October 1974. Wave 1 peaks are in 2007-2008, wave 2's are zigzags that end in March 2009. Wave 3 terminates in November 2021 for RUT and DJT,ithe latter of which has a blow-off top. SPX wave 3 terminates in January 2022. Wave 4 assumes all three indices are forming flats. SPX and RUT formed all time highs in December 2024 and November 2024, respectively. DJT's all time high is still November 2021. If DJT's wave 4 is a regular flat, then RUT and SPX are most likely expanded flats. Each index would then be in wave C of their flats, and each would be looking to take out their 2022 lows. Therefore, for SPX, price should move down quickly towards 3491.58 to complete wave 4. Wave 5 would be impulse waves back up towards all time highs, for a new bull market over the next 5-10 years.
SP:SPXShort
by discobiscuit
SPX ... S&P 500 levels from 1877-1932, an omenThe following is a few examples of why things aren't looking good for the SPX and why it could be on its way to lower levels... First the looking back of back testing this 1877 line. further... further... further... furthering...(White line removed and replaced with Grey...so not confuse on next picture) still furthering...(Top White line is not the same as White in previous pictures*) A clear showing how what is to come is a bounce or straight crash through levels when the crack in the tech world...or what i call "The gr(AI)t short" Basically this is an idea for you to pick a color and count from 1877 to 2024 which has more touches; from there you have the best support line..kinda More detailed short term posts will come soon...just figured out how to imbed these pics/charts
SP:SPX
by CYQOTEK
Bullish bounce off overlap support?S&P500 is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 5,853.42 1st Support: 5,788.43 1st Resistance: 5,926.47 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
Year-end volatilityWhile it’s true that yesterday wasn’t completely void of economic events, a disappointing Chicago PMI can’t really shoulder the blame, or take the credit, for the wild stock market swings that took place. The Dow was down 700 points first thing, on no news. It then rallied 500 soon after the US open, before dropping 200 in the last hour of trading. In S&P terms, that was a loss of 100 points in three hours; a rally of 60 over the following three, topped off with a 30 point slump in the final hour of trading. As they say over the Atlantic: “Go figure.” A clue to what all that was about may be found in the US Treasury market where yields pulled back from recent highs. The 10-year Treasury note lost around 8 basis points yesterday, again on no news. So, like Sherlock Holmes and the ‘dog that didn’t bark’, it seems fair to suggest that investors were indulging in a dollop of year-end window dressing and rebalancing. Equities have had a strong twelve months, so these were sold off on profit-taking; bonds have had a dreadful fourth quarter, so they got bought, sending yields lower. This should help maintain the traditional 60:40 equity/bond portfolio to which most money managers aspire. That still leaves the 10-year yield over 4.50%, and a potential headwind for equities, although it’s remarkable how quickly investors can acclimatise to new environments. Could a 5.00% yield be the new danger threshold next year, as 4.50% now looks rather tatty and obsolete? Going forward, there are two related issues that investors are considering: Will growth continue to outperform value? Can the tech giants continue to lead the market, providing investors with further outsized gains (how does one try to calculate the future returns of generative AI and quantum computing)? Or will the more neglected value stocks take over? That’s all one issue. The second one is: Has the US peaked in terms of market outperformance? Is it now time to rebalance towards Europe and emerging markets? Is China once again an investment opportunity? That’s the other one. Linking all this is where the US dollar is likely to head from here. Yesterday, Jared Dillian, in his ‘Daily Dirtnap’, posted a chart of the Dollar Index superimposed on the same chart from 2016, around the time of Trump’s first presidential election victory. It shows the Dollar Index peaking around 106.00 a month after the result, then falling to 94.00 eight months later. Will history repeat? We know that President-elect Trump likes low interest rates, and tariffs. Could that be enough to trash the greenback? If so, then 2025 is likely to see higher commodity prices, a bond market rally and a bit of a headwind for US equities. Let’s look forward to finding out.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24. In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics. This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday. In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up. The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot