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2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market closed near the open, so neutral. Bulls printed another ath but got another big rejection for 50 points. Bears need lower lows and follow through selling or we continue inside the broad bull channel. Friday’s and Today’s daily bar look bad enough for the bulls so I think bears are favored slightly to get to 5640 or lower tomorrow. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5720 bull case: Bulls buying every dip and staying near or above the 1h 20ema. Despite the many rejections above 5700, bulls are in control and poke higher each day. Clean broad bull channel and until bears break below and make lower lows again, bulls are heavily favored. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Big up, big down, market went nowhere today, despite another ath. Bears desperately need lower lows below 5600, otherwise every dip is bought. First bear target are consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema and then a retest of 5640, which is Friday’s open and near the bull channel line. Invalidation is above 5720. short term: Neutral and fading the extremes. Selling above 5700 continues to be profitable. Not interested in buying this. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. trade of the day: Shorting above 5700 was good for 48 points. Was previous resistance and still is. Daily close above 5700 would change that.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Election Year Jitters: How to Navigate the Volatile US Equity MaUS Presidential Elections and US Equities are a match made in heaven. History shows that market swings more up than down. This year, prepare for a wild ride full of twists. Sadly, former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally over the weekend. He survived and is safe. Investors are expected to shift into haven assets. Gold could test all-time highs. The Dollar, Yen and Bitcoin will rise. WHAT IS THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE THEORY? Yale Hirsch introduced this theory. It posits that stock markets are weakest in the year following Presidential elections. The presidential election impacts economic policies and consequently market sentiment. Theory suggests that US equities perform best during the third followed by the fourth year of a Presidential term. In 1967, Yale Hirsch (a market researcher) published the first edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. According to the book, the President typically indulges the special interest group who got him elected in the first two years after assuming the office. With the next election round the corner, the President shifts focus on shoring up the economy to get re-elected during the third and fourth year. Consequently, equities gain during the second half of the Presidential term. That's the theory, but does it hold true? The answer turns out to be an emphatic yes. S&P500 Index Performance since 1960 with election years highlighted BUT HOW ABOUT SECOND HALF OF THE ELECTION YEAR? With half of the election year behind us, crucially, how do markets perform during the second half of an election year? Over the last 6 decades, the S&P500 on average delivered positive returns in 13 of the 16 election years during the second half of the year. 2008 was a washout year for equities with global financial crisis crushing equities. The S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.1% followed by 3.2% in the second half on average even after including 2008. S&P500 tends have positive bias in election years Excluding 2008, average S&P500 returns for the first half of election year was 4.9% followed by 5.4% in the second half. S&P500 positive bias during election years is even more pronounced when 2008 GFC abnormal returns are excluded PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE History has shown time and again that timing the market is futile. Using Hirsch’s theory as gospel can be dangerous. Presidential elections occur once only every four years. Even though the analysis above covers 6 decades, it only has 16 data points. By any measure, that's far too little to arrive at definitive conclusions. As any sensible statistician would tell you, even if two variables are correlated (election cycle and S&P500), it does not guarantee causation. WHAT CAN INVESTORS EXPECT DURING 2024 ELECTION YEAR? It is not just historical precedent that suggests upside in the next six months, market conditions also suggest equities could see further upside. 2024 has been a stunning year. Gen AI frenzy has fuelled powerful rally. It has been the strongest tailwind since the dot-com mania. Unlike the dot-gone era, companies are producing eye-popping revenues and profits that support the rally. The recession that never came has been a powerful tailwind that has helped equity markets soar to heights never seen before. Inflation has been easing. Labour markets are tightening. Expectations of rate cuts are rising fast. The next Fed meeting is scheduled on 31st July. Markets are pricing 93% chance of the Fed Fund rates remaining unchanged at the current 525-550 basis points (bps). The picture is starkly different for the Fed meeting on 18th September. Markets are pricing >90% chance of the Fed starting to cut the rates by 25bps based on CME FedWatch tool as of close of markets on 12th July 2024. Slowing economy and rising unemployment will trigger the Fed to commence its rate cutting cycle Citi analysts predict that the Fed will slash rates by 200 bps (2% in total) by the summer of 2025. 25bps of rate cuts in eight successive meetings, starting in September. A slowing economy and growing unemployment are cited as the basis for this aggressive rate cut cycle. RATE CUTS WILL PUT MARKETS ON TOP GEAR Two active wars. Extreme weather conditions. Shocks from elections across the globe. None of these have had any dampening effect on equities. Such is the euphoria. Rate cuts will put a turbo charged market on steroids. Investors out to be cautious to assess if rate cuts are already priced into equities given that S&P 500 is up >11% over last three months including 2.8% so far in July. It is essential to make risk mitigated moves in the second half of an election year. WHAT ALTERNATIVES DO INVESTORS HAVE? There are many alternatives. Three common possibilities are (a) Long Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, (b) Long call options on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures, and (c) Bullish put spread on Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures. Futures enable direct, liquid, and efficient access to the index. Long call enables investors to gain from rising S&P 500 and from volatility expansion. Bullish put spread allows the trader to harvest put options premium as the index rises. The bull put spread consists of one short put with a higher strike and one long put with a lower strike. Given the sharp run-up in the index and expected volatility, long calls are not viable. Risk reward ratios for a bullish put are not compelling. Hence, a hypothetical trade set up using futures. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With equity markets in euphoria and rate cuts expected starting in September, US equities are poised to rally further. Historical precedent shows that 2H of election years tends to results in positive returns in the S&P 500. Investors can express this view using Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Index futures. Trade set up using Micro E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures expiring in Dec 2024 (MESZ2024) is summarised below: • Entry: 5650 • Target: 6030 • Stoploss: 5400 • Profit at target: USD 1,900 (6030 – 5650 = 380 index points; Profit = 380 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,900) • Loss at Stop: USD 1,250 (5400 – 5650 = 250 index points; Loss = 250 points x USD 5/point = USD 1,250) • Reward to Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:MESZ2024Long
by mintdotfinance
#202429 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: Don’t know what to tell you here. Market can obviously go much higher for longer and we can print a couple of higher highs. But I will never join the “this time it’s different” crowd. The only sure thing before bubbles popping is that markets print more and more ridiculous highs while more and more people say “it’s really different this time” and they always popped and always will. That’s the nature of the game. Am I saying you should short this right now? No. Do you want to buy this at 5621? If your answer is yes, I do hope you make money, enjoy my letter and take something from it. comment: Was I wrong about the highs? Yup. SP500 made a higher high by 1 tick. Do I care? Nope. Still convinced this here is the top and I give the market room to prove me wrong again. Have your stop loss in place and live with it if it gets hit. Part of the game. For me the odds of this being the high for the next weeks to months is greater than markets continuing up. current market cycle: Bull trap and the end of this trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback and we will form a trading range where the low is 5000. key levels: 5500 - 5700 bull case: Bulls printed another higher high and want to stay above the big bull trend line from 2023-01 and inside the bull wedge which could lead to 5800. If bulls actually manage to do so, no reason they can not print 6000 then but that is as low probability as it gets. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: On the weekly and monthly chart this will probably become a bar with a huge tail above, showing a clear rejection above 5600 and market will stay inside the bull wedge that has been going on for 16 months. Bears want to trap bulls who bought above 5600 and they need a strong daily close below 5550 next. Invalidation is above 5708. outlook last week: short term: Most likely outcome for me is a bull trap above 5600 and we will see a correction over the next weeks. I wait for bear strength before shorting. I will only continue to buy quick momentum scalps if we continue upwards. → Last Sunday we traded 5621 and now we are at 5664. Bad outlook but still think it will become a bull trap over the next week. short term: Bearish. Called the top and will stand by that call. If bulls do another higher high and close above 5708, so be it. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see a bigger correction down to at least 5450 in the near term and likely also 5300. Still think 5000 will be hit in 2024. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. Chart update: Nope.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
ES at a critical point We are now at the new red channel top that began in October 23 and blue channel top line intersection at approximately 5694. Previous test of the blue top line was in DEC 21. This saw a 22% decline. Could that happen here? This is a possibility, but we are still trending up. Shorts normally aren’t taken at tops, but when we lose supports. We continue to buy supports however and have been for months and until this changes, then shorts should be treated as grenades. When taken they have to be bought back quickly. Personally, I only had 1 short trade this week, which was initiated on Thursday after we lost support at 70. We then saw a test of major support at 30. Those who took a short at the top may be rewarded however and really should only be in risk free runners at this point. We may get one more test of the 5700 zone. It may be worth trying one more short attempt, but I will not. The win % is just not there in a bull market and we continue to trend up. Todd H.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by td6trader
ES Range Expectation for PPI and the Friday SessionToday we're looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades. Yesterday's CPI Inflation data provided us with the 2nd large range day in a row (big range days tend to cluster) and today we're about to get the PPI data that usually follows the day after but is a bit more forward looking on inflation expectations. In short it could be another catalyst for another large range day.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JeffBoccaccio