US2000 trade ideas
IWM / SMALL CAPS - STRONGEST MARKETI have a few observations on the market from last week and going on to this week. Something to note, I'm looking at the WEEKLY chart and have a longer time horizon. This is very intentional. I want to demonstrate that PRIOR to any major market move, BOTH bulls and bears will get shaken out. It is very naive to assume that you can have a strong directional bias and only see a straight line upwards in your P/L.
Focusing on a smaller timeframe will result in some serious shake-outs on both ends of the market. Therefore, taking a step back and being able to see the larger picture can very much help tame emotions and see things for what they really are. Unfortunately, this is a rare character trait of the vast majority of market participants.
As of the close of last week:
Small caps are the strongest area of the stock market.
While Nasdaq, S&P and the Dow Jones broke below their prior June lows, Small Caps HAVEN'T. See for yourself. Even though the overall trend is DOWN, this is a major signal to keep an eye on. Small caps tend to lead in the breakdowns and breakouts.
Big directional moves inside a consolidation zone are not trading signals.
The news on 10/13, Thursday, caused a big sell-off that was followed by a massive rally. Everyone on financial TV and social media was calling bottoms, reversals and quoting statistics. Nonetheless a one-day move doesn't mean anything without a major trend change - which takes TIME (and patience) to develop. The following day, Friday, gave back most of Thursday's gains.
Here's the point - this type of price action is very normal in a sideways consolidations market. All big moves INSIDE A CONSOLIDATION ZONE can be easily faded in both directions.
The June rally took SIX WEEKS to build up. Using that as an example (NOT PREDICTION), we can spend a few more weeks in this sideways chop and that would be totally okay.
A fake-out move in either direction would not surprise me
I've donated far too much money to the market by "going all in" on break-out trades. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a major breakout with an immediate reversal in the opposite direction. Moral of the story here is to wait for confirmation. A small position is a MUST on all breakouts, since the most powerful breakouts rarely come back to test the breakout level and we don't want to miss out on such opportunities. However, such breakouts are RARE and therefore capital preservation and risk management should be our HIGHEST & #1 PRIORITY.
PERSONAL VIEW
I still lean more bullish in the short-term (2-6 months), even with last week's wreck in the rest of the indices. There's too much negativity in the market among other factors. If my personal experience and observations after many years serves me well, such environment can sooner or later become ripe for a major squeeze. You don't want to fade that train.
Mid/Long-term, I'm leaning bearish for another major leg down. We'll need a good rally first to entice all the bulls back into the market. When you start seeing news about "the bottom is in" or "new highs" statistics, BEWARE!
BIBLE VERSE OF THE WEEK
"Unless the LORD builds a house, the work of the builders is wasted. Unless the LORD protects a city, guarding it with sentries will do no good." Psalm 127:1
RUT and roll? Excuse corny title. Am not trading much today so have time to make more dumb jokes.
Broadly positioned short over indices and waiting to see if they break. RUT looks like a high value entry so going to add some positions on this.
I think this may be lagging the other indices (I have most my positions in Nasdaq).
Simple 76 trade. Nothing new to anyone who's familure with my work.
Prefer to fade into the rally on US2000USDUS2000USD0 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1860 (stop at 1895)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 1775 and 1760
Resistance: 1815 / 1830 / 1840
Support: 1800 / 1790 / 1775
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Bear Market Rally on all indexes!!!Hi Peoples.
Just my two cents worth here.
I'm using chart for Russell 2000 as pattern and Bullish candles on there are better formed than the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, but they will behave almost the same in terms of movement in the market.
I am going long on indexes and reason why is
1. Double bottom on Weekly chart (for russell 2000), with a very bullish Marobozu candle for confirmation (Hard to find this pattern and candle combination on weekly charts)
2. Strong double bottom on daily.
3.Cange of structure on 4hr and lower time frames.
4. Nice bullish pattern forming (4 hr) on recent higher high after break in structure.
I entered long monday Morning and will be looking to buy into pull backs IF the market does indeed make a move up.
As of this writing price is at avery strong resistance zone as highlighted on my chart.
IF price can move through the horizontal, falling trendline and broken upward trendline resistances then that will be further show of strength to back a bull case for at least a relief rally.
I think it is a good chance that we test the 200 ma again where bears will be waiting to do their thing but if all goes to plan and we do get to or close to 200 ma then there is plenty of good long opportunities.
Drop Imminent at Bearish Order BlockMulti Timeframe Analysis
Hint: Russell 2000 testing a bearish order block at 1760 to 1774. Potential fall to 1669 coinciding with bullish orderblock and volume profile point of control.
Bull-Bear Narrative:
1. Price in tight consolidation awaiting explosive breakout.
2. A bullish order block at 1669 needs to be satisfied which will complel a bearish surge. Institutional order blocks are magnets for price.
3. Overbought and doji a 8H
4. Divergence signals.
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
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Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles
Russell 2000 to 1717Multi Timeframe Analysis
Hint: Russell 2000 could not reach a bearish order block at 1762
Bear Narrative:
1. A bearish order block is rejected ; expect a potential rebound to 1717 corresponding to a first fibonacci level. Price gravitates to such market imbalances.
2. Trader's Dynamic Index about to signal oversold.
3. Bearish Anti Butterfly harmonic patterns point at a potential fall to 1717. Extension target at 1660
5. Divergence signals on 4H 8H and daily
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from the order blocks, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast. A stretch target is the bullish order block at the bottom
Recommendation: set a sell stop order 1000 pips below this order block with a 3000 pip TP. Your SL can be poised above the order block
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
------
Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For ORDER BLOCK trades
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles
More Pain for the Russell 2000 to 1500?Multi Timeframe Analysis
Hint: A massive bullish order block spanning 1500 to 1653 begs satisfaction. Price could linger within this range until all pending institutional orders are filled.
Bearish Narrative:
1. Bullish institutional order block about to be reached. Price gravitates to such market imbalances.
2. Multiple MACD, RSI, MFI bearish divergence signals on Weekly and Daily
3. 32, 41 and 44 stand as extremely powerful resistance levels
4. If the bullish Order Block is breached, next support stands at 1425
5. Russell growth capped by a bearish 21 EMA trendline
6. Putin threatens Kyiv with "even tougher response" in case of further Ukrainian "terrorist acts" against Russia. Read more on the Crimean escalation.
Await a confluence signifying a rejection from the bullish order block, then take a satisfying long all the way to the bearish institutional order block at 1921. From this juncture, we update the next forecast. Expect cryptocurrencies to decline further with the decimation of SP500, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones
Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution
------
Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.
-=ENTRY RULES=-
Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do we long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.
Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe
For ORDER BLOCK trades
When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs
For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line
For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line
Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.
About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).
Possible NFP DirectionThe market has been choppy and volatile, let's see what this week holds. These are my predicted possibilities for NFP till mid October. Let me know what you guys think.
Jamie Gun2Head Idea - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: Some RSI divergence being seen, looking for some window dressing by hedge funds and a move higher today!
Entry Level: 1694
Take Profit Level: 1750
Stop Loss: 1667
Risk/Reward: 2.07:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply: Discounted to 500 MVA & @support"Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply" ratio
1) It moves in a horizental trend in the long-term.
2) %20 discounted compared to 500 days MVA.
3) Nearly touched a major long-term horizental support.
Of course it can also move more downwards if the crisis/war deepens but we can say that the probability of upwards move is more likely.
First target: 0.095-0.100
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: Oversold RSI on the daily, looks to be putting in a short term bottom
Entry Level: 1685.0
Take Profit Level: 1759.0
Stop Loss: 1661.0
Risk/Reward: 3.08:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
US200 - long term SHORT with short term LONG reversalsLooking at the Weekly on the US200.
The probability is that this market is a bear market. With this in mind we are looking for areas of possible reversals.
If we look at the retracements of the last swing higher (March 2020 - November 2021) we see the market had a reversal at the 382 abnd the 50%. Both reversals reaching the top of our range boxes.
From here we look for a reversal at the next level of 618 (15500 area). If the market falls to the 618 it will also mean a double bottom (with Nov 2020) and a 1.272 ext of the current swing that is projected to reach the 618. See 3rd yellow circle.
At this point we can judge the price action for a possible revesal from the 1530 price area up to 1700 area.
Looking further afield the another possible reversal will be at the 707 which is also confluent with the 1.618 extension and 0.5 retracement of the big swing higher (Marck 2009 - November 2021).
So back to today, can we short down to the 1550 area?
On the Daily we see the Market broke below the resistance at 1903. The Short was at the re-test of this 9blue circle). It re-tested two days in a row. So we had two chances here.
Should themarket give us a third opportunity we can then short. Otherwise we wait for anotehr possible ressitance zone at 1800 area.
Keep a eye out.....
Russell 2000 Has Begun Minute Wave AThe Russell 2000 has begun minute wave A of minor wave Y.
Theoretically, the preferred target for wave 2 after a leading diagonal in wave 1 is the 0.786 Fibonacci level. This means that minor wave Y should take prices up to about the 2284 level. However, both the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 are lagging behind the S&P 500 and the Dow by a wide margin in percentage terms. As a result, it is likely that the S&P 500 and the Dow will reach the 0.786 Fibonacci level, but the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 will likely fall short of this level.
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000
Reasoning: RSI bullish divergence, looking for a bounce on indices today!
Entry Level: 1789
Take Profit Level: 1829
Stop Loss: 1776
Risk/Reward: 3.08:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
