CPI over-expected good and Spot ETF will make VIX dropAs Title said, CPI over-expected good in NOV and BlackRock BTC Spot ETF will boost market and VIX drop down in 12-14 range
VVVolatility S&P 500 Index
16.87USDR
+1.10+6.98%
As of today at 09:13 GMT
USD
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VIX trade ideas
VIX Volatility Index ~ Trend Analysis (2H Chart)TVC:VIX chart mapping/analysis.
Always been a firm-believer in strong negative correlation with SPX.
Key is not matching SPX highs with VIX lows ie "catching the bottom" - it should be used as a supplementary indicator for overall market direction, by identifying key support/resistance areas for trend switches that aids you in developing a Trading Edge .
Chart Example:
October 2022 peak in VIX marked (temporary?) bottom in SPX
VIX unable to break above ~34 resistance zone after multiple attempts = gives way to lower highs & lower lows (change in trend)
SPX responds by making series of higher highs & higher lows
VIX bottoms around July 2023, unable to break below ~13 resistance zone (ie trend switch)
SPX peaks in July & proceeds to pull back until recent reversal - coinciding with dramatic drop in volatility
This is by no means a done & dusted chart - after all it's called the "Volatility Index" lol.
It will require ongoing tweaking, back-testing & confluence with SPX TA work, as well as vigilance of evolving macro-economic events which get rapidly priced into both indices.
Good luck :)
Note: "SPX TEMP BOTTOM horizontal line should be adjusted higher to sit on VIX peaks - can't edit chart & cbf re-publishing...but you get the idea, cheers.
VIX on the verge on a momentous move?The VIX has been accumulating in the blue rectangle for 4 months and I expect to see some reaction from the lows, coinciding with the arc.
VIX has been beaten hard recently and has been trading extremely low. Only the beginning of 2020 did we see lows similar to this.
This is not trading advice, just an idea.
Cheers, and good luck!
Vix Minor 3: For real this timeUltimately, the last idea was early and invalidated, accordingly. I do think the count is nowripe for a Minor 3 to develop. Price is still 1s and 2s, but over the next 4-6 days, I will be observing short ES and NQ entries and looking to strike. If trading VIX, long entries could be nice, here, because we are in a range and maybe vega available. Plenty of confusion.
In that regard, I want to point out that what looks like Minute ((ii)) in ES actually went lower in VIX, so if this is correct, the way that Vix is calculated may necessarily "force" it break EWT rules. Just an idea that I hear more discussion about. I am no mathematician, but find the query interesting.
Will update as the track unfolds.
Best,
Cuz
VIX: Bullish Deep Gartley with RSI Bullish DivergenceThe S&P Volatility Index has made its way back down and formed a potential Bullish Deep Gartley on the way down. It is slightly diverging on the intraday at this PCZ and is sitting at the 200-Day SMA. If it were to stage a bounce this week, it would be from here and it would likely have a Bullish Target of $22-$25
Moment of truthIs VIX breaking out? SPY hit very hard the support trendline, is like it wants break it down. I think we will have a bloody battle at this level, a lot of volatility. Several attempts to break the support. If it breaks it at first attempt, that's it, crash will come. I'm holding my longs and selling covered calls, I'm not selling anything, actually I'm buying stocks and selling calls. Just bought Intel and Newmont yesterday. If crash happens, it will probably last a few months, I'm ok with that. In the mean time I'm selling calls and collect dividends. I will only sell stocks that I don't like much, only a few ones.
VIX - A storm is brewingTVC:VIX may have reached a significant bottom during today's volatile trading session. As seen below, the recent rug pull shown on the 1D chart has finally concluded; almost to the exact penny.
When we step back and look at the weekly timeframe, VIX is currently bouncing higher off of a major bullish divergence that was built up over the past several months.
The RSI is also retesting the neutral line (50) and TVC:VIX itself has closed on a major support level.
If TVC:VIX continues its move higher next week, we could see a significant drop in the S&P500
Disclaimer:
Any information contained within this post does not constitute any financial, investment, or trading advice. Trade or invest at your own risk.
VIX Clears 20-21, On Capitulation WatchAfter the VIX sagged to under 13 at times in the third quarter, October has brought about the bears and higher volatility, as if on seasonal cue. The S&P 500 peaked in late July right when many mega-cap tech stocks reported second-quarter earnings results. The AI-fueled rally that gave equities legs following the SVB crisis in mid-March finally lost steam.
The S&P 500 is now a stone's throw away from "correction territory" off the 4607 rebound peak a few months ago. The psychological level to watch is 4146 (-10%). As of this writing, equity futures point to an SPX near 4200 - below its rising 200-day moving average and testing the breakout point from late May. What could surprise some bulls would be a break under 4200 followed by a snapback higher.
All eyes are on the VIX. Wall Street's "fear gauge" has jumped to 23 this morning. While not screaming panic, the Volatility Index is at its loftiest level since March. The Q3 high of 31 could be in play, but I also notice that a series of lower highs has been the trend since way back in January of 2022 (39). Thus, it's reasonable to assert that the high 20s on the VIX could be the peak this go around. Of course, bullish stock seasonality really takes hold following this week (though pre-election years tend to see somewhat weaker Novembers compared to all years).
Incoming VIX liquidityI'm expecting a great deal of volatility in the coming weeks with the VIX having broken a key psychological level, created a CHoCH, and continued rising, leaving behind some liquidity in the FVG-W below. LOTS of liquidity lies above at the daily and H4 levels and the VIX is likely to reach for these levels.
Why is this important? Well VIX and most indices (DAX, DOW, NAS in particular) move contratrend to the VIX, and so if the VIX is trending bullish, I'd expect these to (continue to) trend bearish. With NAS, price is currently b/w the 70.5 and 61.8 monthly Fib levels, a key bearish signal, headed towards liquidity resting in the FVG-M below. The same is true for DAX, which has already pierced the FVG-M. DOW is also in a strong bearish trend, but price is already resting between the 61.8 and 50.0 monthly Fib levels. As a result of this, I am strongly bearish on indices for the upcoming week, and will be looking for reactions(institutional sponsorship) on the H1 & m15 for entries on the m5/m3/m1, but please note that actual execution will rely on time and price. Happy Trading 😋
W1 VIX:
H4 VIX:
M1 DAX:
H4 DAX:
M1 DOW:
H4 DOW:
M1 NAS:
H4 NAS:
VIX WILL NEED TO BE 25.80 AND BACK TO FEE BONDSWhile a rising VIX might suggest a short-term boost for bonds due to the flight to safety, other overriding factors can influence the bond market.
It's always essential to view these dynamics in the broader context of global economic and geopolitical events.
VIX long term WAVE C down will be UGLY once wave B is topI think all should understand that I am looking for that last short squeeze in the markets and NOT by any mean a new Bull market . My view is based on DATA of 123 yrs NOT wishful thinking . way too many of you have not lived thru a true bear market I have lived thru 5 and this will be my 6th I have studied Every bear market I will warning all a second time this is the last leg up . and if you do not want to be holding on with loses for 3 to 5 years use the last wave up to take advantage of the yields in 2 yr paper or just stay in 30 to 90 tbills the return will be one as the market is going to drop .382 of the whole move up 1974 or 2009 both will be very painful
